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term="Seattle"/><category term="albert brooks references"/><category term="alchemy"/><category term="art"/><category term="at-risk games"/><category term="barcelona"/><category term="chat"/><category term="cheap jokes"/><category term="commendations"/><category term="comparative literature"/><category term="cover boys"/><category term="diametrically opposed to one's playing career"/><category term="diamon simpson"/><category term="dikembe mutombo mpolondo mukamba jean-jacques wamutombo"/><category term="dwyane wade"/><category term="essay"/><category term="etiquette"/><category term="fiction"/><category term="game previews"/><category term="gregg popovich"/><category term="hawls"/><category term="haws"/><category term="higher education"/><category term="idle speculation"/><category term="indefensible proclamations"/><category term="iowa state"/><category term="jeremy richardson"/><category term="jerry stackhouse"/><category term="joel embiid"/><category term="john jenkins"/><category term="jonny flynn"/><category term="kent bazemore"/><category term="kevin garnett"/><category term="knick"/><category term="kyle korver"/><category term="lebron james"/><category term="link"/><category term="litigation"/><category term="lockout"/><category term="macrophenomena"/><category term="magnum rolle"/><category term="metric conversion"/><category term="mid-majors"/><category term="mike scott"/><category term="music"/><category term="mythology"/><category term="ncaa basketball"/><category term="nicknames"/><category term="nostalgia"/><category term="official protest"/><category term="officiating"/><category term="olympiakos. josh smith"/><category term="pac 10"/><category term="philanthropy"/><category term="poetry"/><category term="potential class action lawsuits regarding poor management"/><category term="ray allen"/><category term="reading is fundamental"/><category term="regrets of drafts past"/><category term="reporting"/><category term="rubbing salt"/><category term="sean williams"/><category term="shane battier"/><category term="shelden williams"/><category term="sonis"/><category term="starfuckers"/><category term="suspensions"/><category term="tales of cable woe"/><category term="technical difficulties of the future"/><category term="thabo sefolosha"/><category term="the myth of the true fan"/><category term="trade rumors"/><category term="trae young"/><category term="travel gripes"/><category term="travis schlenk"/><category term="twitter"/><category term="ty lawson"/><category term="usa basketball"/><category term="visions of salim"/><category term="wcc"/><category term="writing"/><title type='text'>Hoopinion</title><subtitle type='html'>Atlanta Hawks analysis: Built on pessimism and truth</subtitle><link rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/posts/default'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/'/><link rel='hub' href='http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/'/><link rel='next' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default?start-index=26&max-results=25'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><generator version='7.00' uri='http://www.blogger.com'>Blogger</generator><openSearch:totalResults>2074</openSearch:totalResults><openSearch:startIndex>1</openSearch:startIndex><openSearch:itemsPerPage>25</openSearch:itemsPerPage><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8164059802986447527</id><published>2022-04-16T21:00:00.003-04:00</published><updated>2022-04-20T08:25:24.827-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="trae young"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="travis schlenk"/><title type='text'>Trae Young Is a Miracle</title><content type='html'>PrologueI thought Trae Young was the third-best prospect in the 2018 draft. I didn't think Trae Young would be this good.&nbsp;Lon Kruger, the pride of Silver Lake, Kansas, didn't think Trae Young would be this good, and not just because that would raise awkward questions about why Oklahoma kind of sucked during Young's season there. (Don't worry, Lon, the college basketball rules suck, especially as applied to and impacting gifted offensive players.)&nbsp;Two-time national champion* Bill Self, who desperately wanted Trae Young to share the backcourt with Devonte' Graham (oooh, foreshadowing) for a season, didn't think Trae Young would be this good.&nbsp;*Rock ChalkRayford Young surely loves and believes in the son who shares his name, but could any father** convert his hopes for his child into thinking he could be this good.&nbsp;**Personal news: I have a&nbsp;lot&nbsp;more thoughts about fatherhood than the last time I darkened these corners.Travis Schlenk, who was more right about Trae Young (and by a significant amount) than any other decision-maker in the NBA, Travis Schlenk didn't think Trae Young would be this good.&nbsp;Trae Young thought Trae Young would be this good. He was right and I am grateful.A Brief Look BackI am an Atlanta Hawks fan because the Kansas City Kings moved to Sacramento when I was eight years old, thus I arrived in Atlanta six years after that as a boy without a NBA team. I became fully attached to the Hawks three years later when they traded for my childhood hero, Danny Manning. Terrible trade. Danny Manning is a marvel. These are both true to me.The Hawks remained compelling without excelling for a half-decade after that, then embarked on a near-decade-long rebuilding process that Al Horford eventually ended with help from Josh Smith and Joe Johnson (in that order). There are countless thousands of words in the archives here about those interesting, poorly owned (thus poorly ran) teams. There are a few things written here about the two excellent pace-and-space Hawks teams that Mike Budenholzer and Danny Ferry built before Budenholzer destroyed them prematurely and unnecessarily.All of that to say I have no first- or second-hand relationship to the feelings Dominique Wilkins graced Hawks fans with in the 1980s. In terms of the franchise's history, this Trae Young playoff shit feels like that. For me, it's sui generis. Apologies if any of this reeks of a middle-aged man in a state of over-stimulation. Look away if you must. I understand.With all due respect to the 2020-21 and 2021-22 rosters in their entireties, members of whom will be touched on here and there from here on out (but not in any comprehensive way), and their contributions to playoff and post-regular season success (to-date and any yet to come), Trae Young carrying the Hawks&nbsp;to playoff and post-regular season success (to-date and any yet to come) is personally enriching. Trae Young avoiding and escaping the greatest basketball players in the world* over-and-over again, as their fans chant "Fuck Trae Young," until their shoulders slump in defeat**, then owning the court, shushing and bowing with an air of "I said 'Fuck you' back to you in a way for which you have no possible response" is something that will never grow old.*Also,&nbsp;the Knicks**Players and paying customers both, eventuallyCleveland, Ohio - April 15, 2022In the first half of the play-in game Friday night, every fact-based criticism or perceived doubt about Trae Young was true. He was horrible defensively, and the Cavaliers made the Hawks pay for that in myriad ways: at the point of attack, with off-ball cuts the moment his attention waned, and by taking free paths to offensive rebounds when Young stood and watched a Cleveland shot go up. Offensively, Young struggled to score against physicality (Isaac Okoro and Caris LaVert) and length (the great Evan Mobley and the long-absent Jarrett Allen giving all he had*). His shot selection wasn't ideal (4 long twos and 2 30-foot threes among his 11 first half shots). Compounding it all, his teammates only made one open three off of a shot he created for them. The bedrock belief in Trae Young, NBA player, was that no matter what, his passing would play at this level. In the first half Friday night, that was still true, but it didn't matter.*Luckily for the Hawks all Allen had left for the second half (3 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 3 fouls) was falling down theatrically&nbsp;to no useful purpose&nbsp;at the slightest contact.That the Hawks were within 10 at the half was down to yeoman's work on the glass by Clint Capela, by that point done for the game and who knows how much longer*, and Bogdan Bogdanovic providing 14 points on 5 shots, effectively shooting better than 100%. Things looked a little grim, even allowing for the possibility of Cleveland reverting back to a league-average three-point shooting team instead of Lauri Markkanen looking more like Dale Ellis' son than <a href="https://www2.kusports.com/photos/galleries/2010/jan/20/kansas-150-kentuck-95/67365/" target="_blank">Pekka's</a>.*Get well soon, Clint, and, failing that and given the contract extension (more to come on that, below), get completely well eventually.Things got so much better, it's a bit of a shock to look back and remember how long it took for things to get better. The Cavs were up 9 with 3:48 left in the third quarter. To be fair, Delon Wright had only been on the court for 64 seconds of the second half at that point. From the 3:48 mark, it took just 126 seconds of Wright's ferocious, singular perimeter defense paired* with Young's simultaneously accustomed and astonishing offensive brilliance (28 points and 2 assists, 0 turnovers in his final 11:37 on the court) to give the Hawks their first lead.&nbsp;*Not since the tag-team, second-half point guard display of Dajuan Harris and Remy Martin in the National Championship game has a you-dominate-defensively-I'll-dominate-offensively partnership looked so powerful. Rock Chalk.This is not the time or place for analysis of how he did it. <a href="https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2022/4/16/23027895/atlanta-hawks-cleveland-cavaliers-play-in-analysis-video-breakdown-trae-young-playoffs-nba" target="_blank">Wes Morton beat me to it, and I'm not going to be able to improve on his work, anyway</a>. Rest assured, Trae Young left the Cavaliers grasping at air, chasing ghosts, questioning their faith, helpless, hopeless, ultimately defeated, sitting with that queasy feeling, rare to team sports, that you lost because one person was so much better than you that the whole construct of a team didn't really matter.The Whole Construct of a TeamFor the Hawks to contend regularly for a NBA title, the whole construct of a team matters a lot.I'm going to circle back to the first section:<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;">Travis Schlenk didn't think Trae Young would be this good.</blockquote>My argument for this rests on all the things Travis Schlenk has gotten wrong and all the ways he's undermined the many important things he's gotten right, while flailing and failing to build a team that takes full advantage of Trae Young's offensive brilliance and mitigates his defensive limitations.&nbsp;Schlenk's rebuild was jump started when John Collins inexplicably fell to the 19th pick of the 2017 draft. Even more inexplicably, Schlenk never warmed to Collins. At least in the sense of never outwardly treating him as a core element of the team's successful future. Maybe Schlenk doesn't value the valor in not fucking up an obvious decision - taking John Fucking Collins with the 19th pick of the draft - compared to being right about Trae Young. Maybe Schlenk was wary about Collins getting to play one year under Budenholzer and thus never operating under any delusions that Schlenk's hand-picked successor, Lloyd Pierce, was the right man for the job. And, knowing that, what about the man doing the hand-picking? What does John Collins think about him?Oh, supposition regarding my perceived foils, I've missed you. Also, I love John Collins. He's great. Trae&nbsp; Young and John Collins. Build around that. That's my pitch.If this piece has a purpose beyond extolling Trae Young, it is this: Travis Schlenk screwed up acquiring Trae Young. Hard to do, I know. Schlenk was more right than he knew about Young, but he lacked the ability to weigh his desire against the value of what he held - the rights to Luka Doncic. Listen, I'm more than okay Trae Young is the Atlanta Hawks' franchise player and Luka Doncic is not. Young's game is significantly&nbsp;more aesthetically pleasing and his whole deal is more appealing than that of the sour, doughy Slovenian, whatever the difference in provable, on-court value. But when you're holding the rights to a guy who's going to finish fourth in the MVP vote in less than 24 months, you've got to get more than one extra pick for him. You've got to get every scrap of value to build around your franchise player with an Achilles' heel. Building a team isn't about getting every decision right. That's impossible. It's about giving yourself enough chances to survive the decisions that don't work, for reasons within and out of your control.Schlenk would further explore this gap between the object of his desire and the value of his assets in the 2019 draft, feeling flush with the lone extra pick from Dallas, and spending two first round picks on De'Andre Hunter, an excellent college player who looked physically slight, unable to create his own shot, and uncertain to be able to defend in space. Barring a brief, jarring, and fascinating 18 games* at the start of the 2020-21 season, Hunter** has looked&nbsp;physically slight, unable to create his own shot, and uncertain to be able to defend in space over more than 3,500 regular season minutes of below replacement-value play.&nbsp;*Like you, dear reader,&nbsp;I also frequently think, "Well, if the Hawks add the good version of De'Andre Hunter to what they have..." The Hawks stunk during the brief flowering of the good version of De'Andre Hunter. He was the only thing worth watching in January 2021. Probably just a coincidence. But I wonder...**Only two months younger than John Collins, mind you.Hunter was presumed to be the perimeter defensive lynchpin to augment Young's offensive brilliance. He has not been that. And his failure to be that has been augmented by the wing depth beyond him mostly comprising a <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/reddica01.html" target="_blank">younger, worse player</a> and visions of De'Andre Hunter future:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv1Xk86t6DOaIK203TX9jJ54Vx_7yYvDVVjw00o0fDayYwKFlbpj9Clf6zW-cItvtVqtQwxuGsEZkfzcJtEH-YUoD7mY-K7PKOWzfQNi5jjq1Xv78KbXLJQha01wdkutUL5ieRg7HGekaDE0VSru3CG_g4RcvNaNIFO4meFOE2WIZQw6Z8eA/s925/Screen%20Shot%202022-04-16%20at%205.38.39%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="925" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv1Xk86t6DOaIK203TX9jJ54Vx_7yYvDVVjw00o0fDayYwKFlbpj9Clf6zW-cItvtVqtQwxuGsEZkfzcJtEH-YUoD7mY-K7PKOWzfQNi5jjq1Xv78KbXLJQha01wdkutUL5ieRg7HGekaDE0VSru3CG_g4RcvNaNIFO4meFOE2WIZQw6Z8eA/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-04-16%20at%205.38.39%20PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>Schlenk made a great decision to trade for Clint Capela. Even better, he got him cheap. Like, even if it doesn't work out, it's not damaging. Boy howdy, it worked out. Nine months later, Schlenk made another great decision: drafting Onyeka Okongwu. You've got three years of a center under contract, in his prime, that fits perfectly alongside your franchise player. You have that center's successor in place, with ample runway to learn the league and how to play with your franchise player before Capela's contract expires. Perfect roster management in the short- and long-term.Then, inexplicably, less than a year after that, well after Okongwu validated all optimism in him during the 2021 playoffs, Schlenk signed Capela to an extension that doesn't go in effect until the summer of 2023. Again, Schlenk overvalued what he wanted - Clint Capela's 2020-21 production - without properly accounting for the assets he held - both Onyeka Okongwu's cost-controlled potential production in 2023-24 and Capela's modest future trade value (remember you got him cheap for a reason, Travis).&nbsp;The duplication of resources at a single position for marginal gain in this instance is very reminiscent of the overlapping investments in John Collins and Danilo Gallinari while backup point guard and perimeter defense went either ignored or were addressed unsuccessfully. Which is weird, because two of Schlenk's unmitigated successes: drafting Kevin Huerter and signing Bogdan Bogdanovic, means he doesn't even have to find genuine two-way players to shore up those areas, just some long, athletic, ruthless characters who want to punish the other team for daring to take their turn with possession of the ball.Case in point, Delon Wright, another great Schlenk signing who struggled to get on the court this season despite bringing everything the Hawks most needed to the court. If your head coach is going to be tempted to play the flickering specter of the great Lou Williams instead of Delon Wright* over and over again, you've got to make the whole rest of the bench Delon Wrights. You're the GM, you can control that without being a dick that undermines the head coach.*Which is especially galling when the goal should be to identify every minute you can get Delon Wright on the court instead of De'Andre Hunter and indulge them with absolute gluttony.See, Travis Schlenk is a scout guy. He's not a numbers guy. He trusts his eyes and his gut and not necessarily in that order. But he's not finding guys who can contribute in the second round* or off the street. If there's a difference in this series against the Miami Heat that's more complicated than John Collins and Clint Capela being hurt, it's this. Going down the Heat roster in order of minutes played (minimum 1,000 minutes): Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin are all undrafted free agents. Gabe Vincent is probably just a guy, but the other three are all useful rotation players**.&nbsp;*The other missed opportunity of the 2018 draft: selling the 34th pick instead of taking Devonte' Graham and shoring up the second unit on the cheap. Could have spared us Brandon Goodwin, Rajon Rondo, and 2021-22 Lou Williams.**In Miami, at least, maybe the real difference is Eric Spoelstra.The Hawks have had to invest heavily, via first-round picks and free agent dollars, to build a flawed roster around Trae Young. A roster that cannot play effective defense despite Capela and Okongwu. Those substantial investments are augmented, in terms of minutes played, almost exclusively by guys born in the first half of the 1990s. Solomon Hill's season was over on December 5th. He still played more minutes than Jalen Johnson* this season. Those investments will eventually, push up against the restrictions of the salary cap, forcing Schlenk either to make shrewd decisions he's not shown an aptitude for, nor really an interest in, or choosing between available moves that don't make the Hawks any better, just different, with a whiff of appearing decisive primarily as a means of staying in his job.*Jalen Johnson may end up on the positive side of Schlenk's ledger. His athleticism stands out, at least in the context of his teammates. He didn't shoot the ball impressively in his limited G-League minutes, but he's 20. You'd like to see him play.Trae Young is succeeding, magnificently and with style (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2eYo433JRA" target="_blank">for miles and miles</a>). Travis Schlenk thought he had to build the right team around Trae Young's unique brilliance in order to experience post-season success. He's already gotten some rewards without building that right team. Trae Young keeps buying him more time. It's fun for now, but Schlenk has to start approaching the level of his signature acquisition. He owes it to Trae Young's miraculous talent.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8164059802986447527/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8164059802986447527' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8164059802986447527'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8164059802986447527'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2022/04/trae-young-is-miracle.html' title='Trae Young Is a Miracle'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv1Xk86t6DOaIK203TX9jJ54Vx_7yYvDVVjw00o0fDayYwKFlbpj9Clf6zW-cItvtVqtQwxuGsEZkfzcJtEH-YUoD7mY-K7PKOWzfQNi5jjq1Xv78KbXLJQha01wdkutUL5ieRg7HGekaDE0VSru3CG_g4RcvNaNIFO4meFOE2WIZQw6Z8eA/s72-c/Screen%20Shot%202022-04-16%20at%205.38.39%20PM.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-4329927461557006123</id><published>2017-04-27T07:58:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-27T07:58:09.101-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>Hawks University: A Vocational School for Bench Players</title><content type='html'>All three games played in Washington have left the impression that neither team played especially well and neither team played especially poorly. Lending credence to that impression of just watching an Eastern Conference playoff series happen before me, the Hawks twice took a 7-point lead in the first half at which point the Wizards went on 5-0 and 13-2 runs. After Washington took their biggest lead of the game (11 points) in the third quarter, the Hawks scored the next 11 points.
 
As in the first two games, the biggest issue for the Hawks is a lack of talent on the roster. A well-executed offensive possession that ends with, say, an open Kent Bazemore three-point attempt or Ersan Ilyasova having to finish at the rim on the move doesn't have the expected value that leads to road playoff wins. Not to pick on Bazemore and Ilyasova exclusively. 
 
Tim Hardway, Jr. has no chance to guard Bradley Beal and John Wall and, except for a two-minute stretch in the third quarter wherein he scored 8 of his 15 points, can't make up for his defensive ineptitude* offensively at this level of competition. He played the entire fourth quarter, missed all five of his field goal attempts and grabbed a single rebound with nine seconds left. 
 
*His defensive performance in this series should be used in schools to teach young people that playing defense is not simply a matter of trying hard. He's trying hard. He's a bad defender.&nbsp; 
 
Dwight Howard looked downright spry in the first quarter, twice contesting a shot to force a miss then moving to grab the rebound. Dwight Howard looked immobile in the second half and had a negligible impact on the game. The Hawks outscored the Wizards in both of Mike Muscala's second half stints but, per usual, one gets the sense that where Muscala's defender stands when he's on the court makes a larger impact than anything Muscala actively does.
 
The Hawks simply lack the talent to put five good players on the floor at any time despite sustained excellence from Paul Millsap* and Dennis&nbsp;Schröder. That the Hawks can stay in a road playoff game despite making 29% of their three-pointers, committing more turnovers, and attempting fewer free throws is a testament** to the soundness of the offensive and defensive framework in which they operate.
 
*If I can be indulged in one slight criticism of Millsap, he should just ditch his half-hearted pump fakes from beyond the three-point line. The league gets that he doesn't want to shoot that shot so the pump fake turns into more of a pause, allowing the primary and secondary defenders time to get set which makes it more difficult for Millsap to create a good shot (or draw a foul) off the dribble.
 
**It might be a testament to the Wizards not being that good, too. 
 
On the brink of elimination that soundness provides hope for this team's short-term survival as well as the challenge of building a more talented, balanced roster for the 2017-18 season and beyond. 
 
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/4329927461557006123/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=4329927461557006123' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4329927461557006123'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4329927461557006123'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/hawks-university-vocational-school-for.html' title='Hawks University: A Vocational School for Bench Players'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-1358081937272884922</id><published>2017-04-25T17:52:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-25T17:52:28.618-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>The Jose Calderon Game</title><content type='html'>Whether seen again or not, this weekend's version of the Atlanta Hawks, the one that shoots threes better and turns the ball over less often their opponents, provided pure basketball pleasure. Or at least pleasure as pure as possible over 2 games that featured 90 personal fouls and approximately 80 post-foul discussions between various combinations of referees, players, and coaches.
 
The Hawks paired typically stout defense with shot-making and ball protection. They got (Brandon Jennings 20-foot step-backs, excepted) what you want from surrendering mid-range opportunities. John Wall was 1-7 in Game 4 from between 14 and 21 feet. Markieff Morris was 3-7 (and only one 3PTA). Otto Porter, Jr. was 1-4. Kelly Oubre, Jr. and Bojan Bogdanovic both went 0-1. Bradley Beal was 3-5, but 6 points on 5 shots was less damaging than the 26 points he got on his other 18 FGAs.
 
Dwight Howard was excellent in Game 4, lending further credence to the idea that he and Thabo Sefolosha were redundant, but having one defensive-oriented role player on the floor is valuable. On the offensive end, Howard's presence complicates using Millsap as the screener in pick-and-rolls because of the extra defender Washington gets to leave in the paint. But, in the second quarter, Kent Bazemore showed, on consecutive possessions, it is still possible to get into the lane and drop off a lob for Howard to finish.
 
Given my pre-series focus on how the Hawks could connive to get Paul Millsap matched up against Jason Smith, it's a bit embarrassing to recognize that I overlooked the simplest path: get Markieff Morris in foul trouble and trust Scott Brooks to make a puzzling rotation decision in a playoff game. Going big against the Hawks isn't as big a risk as resting Wall and Beal simultaneously, but I don't see how it helps his team.
 
One of my main worries* going into Game 4 was who the Hawks' third scorer would be. Of course, the Hawks had scorers third through seventh contribute, including two I'd given up on: Kent Bazemore (truly excellent) and Tim Hardaway, Jr., who showed signs of offensive life early in the fourth quarter against Washington's second unit (hint hint, Bud).&nbsp; 
 
*Worrying about what happens if Millsap or&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;has a bad offensive game is at the forefront of my thoughts about the decisive three games ahead. 
 
Then there was Jose Calderon. In the kind of performance that can have a massive impact on winning a short series, he did the things you can fairly expect of him in his 36th year: make 40% of his threes, keep Bazemore and Hardaway, Jr. from playing out of position as the backup point guard...that's about it, actually. He also did things nearly unfathomable even as you witnessed them: a key fourth quarter tip-in in transition, confound the Wizards' attempt to get easy points by running him off of screens or posting him up with bigger shooters, raise the specter of a Jose Calderon/Brandon Jennings fight in a playoff game in the Year Of Our Lord 2017, and retroactively justify sitting Dennis&nbsp;Schröder for the last 14:28 of the first half because he had three fouls...in a game&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;finished with three fouls after scoring 18 points in 18:49 of second half playing time.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/1358081937272884922/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=1358081937272884922' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1358081937272884922'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1358081937272884922'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/the-jose-calderon-game.html' title='The Jose Calderon Game'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-93103015053162351</id><published>2017-04-23T18:06:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-23T18:06:07.302-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>What Does It Mean?</title><content type='html'>There's nothing better than making shots. Pair it with the Hawks typically stout defense and the result is an insurmountable 25-point lead less than 11 minutes into a playoff game. Is it a one-off event, just something that happened or something portentous?
 
The first quarter saw a second consecutive positive stint for Atlanta's starting lineup (they couldn't repeat the feat at the start of the third) which saw useful defensive activity from Dwight Howard despite his extremely limited offensive involvement (he didn't attempt a field goal or free throw from 2:55 left in the first quarter until 5:39 left in the fourth quarter) and the rare sight of good Atlanta three-point shooting. With Thabo Sefolosha out of the rotation, the Hawks need more quality defensive role player minutes from Howard than I suspected before the series started. It appears Budenholzer has gotten to a point where he's working to get those and willing to go small.
 
The Hawks made 5-9 threes in the first quarter but, by the end of the game, they stand 15-61 from deep in the series' other 11 quarters. I lean toward putting "making a high percentage of threes" in "just something that happened" column. However, the Hawks got a lot of high-percentage two-point shots in the first three quarters which should be more replicable, especially if the non-John Wall Wizards give another low-energy performance (just 6 offensive rebounds, only 11 forced turnovers, 28 more fouls). Taurean Prince offered a vital third scoring option, getting 14 points on 7 shots through three quarters, outplaying Otto Porter, Jr. almost&nbsp;as badly as Paul Millsap did Markieff Morris (in a less obviously psychically&nbsp;scarring manner).
 
Though Dennis&nbsp;Schröder is clearly the second-best point guard in this series, he's playing at the top of his ability to score 25 efficient points per game and earn 24 assists against just 6 turnovers.&nbsp;Schröder's defense is never going to be of "stop John Wall" quality, it might never be good, even, but it's a better workplace when he's giving visible effort on that end. Nor should&nbsp;Schröder's best self overshadow Paul Millsap's continued two-way excellence, which is unique across both rosters in this series so far.
 
A blessedly quick turnaround for Game 4 should offer more information as to where the series stands. I'm not entirely clear on whether, in Millsap's framework, a third successive&nbsp;win for the home team means the series is still 0-0 or not.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/93103015053162351/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=93103015053162351' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/93103015053162351'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/93103015053162351'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/what-does-it-mean.html' title='What Does It Mean?'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-2328796374842304784</id><published>2017-04-20T08:38:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-20T08:38:33.052-04:00</updated><title type='text'>Game 2 Was a Missed Opportunity</title><content type='html'>The Hawks blew a great chance last night. Good things happened while Dwight Howard was on the court in the third quarter! Howard didn't have a ton* to do with the primary factor for Atlanta's success: Wizards foul trouble causing Scott Brooks to go to his bench and create one of the mismatches - Paul Millsap against a larger, slower defender - which the Hawks could create themselves by going small...and there I go again.&nbsp;
 
*Though the terrible pass he threw half-way between Taurean Prince and Kelly Oubre turned into three Hawks points after Prince hustled into the backcourt and got the personal foul/technical foul combo. 
<div>
 </div>
However, the Hawks were very successful for the six-and-a-half minutes they got play against the Gortat/Jason Smith tandem. Largely by playing 4-on-4, de-emphasizing the Howard/Gortat matchup.&nbsp;In the end it didn't matter. Partially because of the 6-14 hole the starting lineup dug over the first seven minutes of the game. Mostly, (and this entire next stretch deserves an "especially because Thabo Sefolosha isn't healthy/isn't playing"), because the Hawks don't have enough good players to fill 240 minutes effectively. Thus, their margin of error is more or less Brandon Jennings holding a fourth quarter Bad Shot Jamboree.
 
Kent Bazemore, generally overextended due to the lack of effective offensive players on the court alongside him this season, is being further overextended in his brief appearances as a backup point guard*, failing in that role, then playing out of control in an effort** to make up for his point guard failures. Tim Hardaway, Jr., who deserves acclaim for improving himself from arguably the worst player in the league into a creditable seventh or eighth guy (on a good team), is completely out of his depth in the playoffs*** again this season, exacerbating his defensive limitations (which are not a function of effort; he's trying to guard Bradley Beal, but he can't) with miserable offensive play. These two are making Taurean Prince at the 3 seem reasonable (despite how that fails to address any of this team's spacing issues) and Mikey Dunleavy's errors of omission in limited minutes seem relatively benign.
 
*Due to the complete and utter failure of the Malcolm Delaney signing 
 
**Baze being the rare guy who got better by being less active on the court 
 
***Thus earning him the Mike Scott degree from Hawks University 
 
Notes 
 
<ul>
<li>The Hawks are still -16 in the 49 minutes Dwight Howard has played in this series,&nbsp;+1 in the 39 minutes he hasn't.</li>
<li>Raw plus/minus isn't a great stat over one or two games. If Bradley Beal hadn't missed a couple of wide-open threes during the Hawks' third quarter run, or the aforementioned Brandon Jennings run hadn't occurred, these margins would be significantly different.</li>
<li>Even though Howard was more effective than in Game 1, he's dropping so deep when defending the pick-and-roll that Mike D'Antoni would sign off on the mid-range jumpers Wall and Beal are getting.</li>
<li>If the Hawks go small at home in Game 3, I'd prefer to see mostly Millsap/Ilyasova with Muscala and Prince getting short stints as necessary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Just play Jose Calderon as an ineffective backup point guard rather than make your sub-par wings even worse.</li>
</ul>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/2328796374842304784/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=2328796374842304784' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2328796374842304784'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2328796374842304784'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/game-2-was-missed-opportunity.html' title='Game 2 Was a Missed Opportunity'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-1758707074983980715</id><published>2017-04-16T16:53:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-16T16:53:52.460-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>Washington 114 Atlanta 107: Game 1 Recap Bullets</title><content type='html'>
<ul>
<li>Dwight Howard got a lot of rebounds (14!) and the Hawks were not good with him on the floor (-21 in 29 minutes!).</li>
<li>Which means they outscored the Wizards by 14 points in the 18:54 Howard didn't play.</li>
<li>Mike Muscala is not a good NBA player in an absolute sense, but he's a functional one. Given the Hawks' dearth of talent, that's not nothing in this context.</li>
<li>Also relevant in this context, the Wizards' bench is not good. There is no expectation five-out Hawks lineups could blow out the Wizards' starters to same degree we saw five-out lineups succeed against these units today.</li>
<li>I think it's a fair expectation that the Wizards' starters can consistently house this Atlanta starting lineup.</li>
<li>The Hawks' starting lineup: -14.8/100 possessions in 26:49 entering this game, was outscored by 13 points over 27 possessions in 12:01 of this game.</li>
<li>Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;and Tim Hardaway, Jr. cannot guard John Wall and Bradley Beal and aren't good enough offensive players to mitigate that inability. Especially Hardaway, Jr., who put in so ineffectual and awkward-looking a playoff performance in a Hawks uniform that you'd be forgiven for mistaking it as a tribute to the young Marvin Williams.</li>
<li>Schröder's&nbsp;inability/unwillingness to stop the ball when John Wall has it in transition is breathtaking.</li>
<li>The Hawks probably can't lose games where they get almost a third of their shots from beyond the arc (plus only 8 long twos)&nbsp;and attempt 39 free throws and win the series.</li>
<li>Thabo Sefolosha is such a good role player (amidst a roster full of okay role players), one could argue the Hawks were missing their second-best player.</li>
<li>Still, Bud's rotations were baffling.</li>
<li>Malcolm Delaney's NBA career is over, huh?</li>
<li>Markieff Morris would rather play the Hawks than VCU.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
 
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/1758707074983980715/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=1758707074983980715' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1758707074983980715'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1758707074983980715'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/washington-114-atlanta-107-game-1-recap.html' title='Washington 114 Atlanta 107: Game 1 Recap Bullets'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-5000754332599657377</id><published>2017-04-15T16:12:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-15T16:12:43.642-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="dwight howard"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><title type='text'>A Dwight Howard Primer</title><content type='html'><div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
Dwight Howard played as well as one could reasonably hope this season. He played better than I expected. It didn't matter.&nbsp;</div>
The following excerpts aren't to pick on anyone because not watching the Hawks when you have a general NBA coverage brief is an eminently understandable decision this season. However, reading playoff preview content such as <a href="https://theringer.com/2017-nba-playoffs-breakout-players-to-watch-tim-hardaway-jr-dewayne-dedmon-jamychal-green-d971dfdbc538">this from Jonathan Tjarks at The Ringer</a>:
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Atlanta’s best chance in its first-round series is for Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap to play so well together that it forces Scott Brooks to keep two traditional big men on the floor.</blockquote>
or <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/bdls-2016-17-nba-playoff-previews-washington-wizards-vs-atlanta-hawks-002751750.html" style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.063px;">this from Eric Freeman at Ball Don't Lie</a>:
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;">
The Wizards are not an especially good interior team. Gortat puts up good numbers and Mahinmi can be useful when healthy, but these players do not constitute the strength of a playoff team. They’re important, to be sure, but not at the core of what the Wizards do.&nbsp;</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;">
In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best.</blockquote>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
suggests an opportunity exists to look beyond Howard's excellent individual rebounding stats, contextualizing the limited positive impact he's able to have on a roster where his presence makes little sense.</div>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
It should be <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/07/sunday-morning-projections.html">no surprise</a> that adding a defensively oriented role player to a team that finished 2015-16 2nd in the league in defense and 22nd in offense was not transformative. The Hawks remained an excellent defensive team, but were even worse offensively. Improving from a bottom-5 rebounding team to a slightly below average rebounding team doesn't matter much in a league accelerating toward the supremacy of shot making.</div>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
<a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2017/on-off/">Howard's presence on the court</a> improved the Hawks' rebounding by 7 percentage points on&nbsp;each end of the floor. Yet the Hawks were outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions with Howard on the floor. They scored 1.7 fewer points per possession and allowed 0.7 more points per possession with him on the floor. Probably because the Hawks' turnover rate increased by 4 percentage points, and their opponents' turnover rate deceased by 1.2 percentage points with Howard on the floor. Going back to Basketball on Paper, <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html">turnover rate is more important than rebound rate</a>.</div>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
Of the top 6 Hawks in terms of minutes played, Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;is the only Hawk who played even slightly better alongside Howard this season. Tim Hardaway, Jr. is the only one who formed a positive duo with Howard. Which makes sense as their skills are tilted toward the offensive end of the floor at least as much as Howard's are to the defensive end.</div>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
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<colgroup><col style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
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<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 65pt;" width="65"></td>
<td class="xl64" colspan="2" style="width: 130pt;" width="130">w/ Howard</td>
<td class="xl64" colspan="2" style="width: 130pt;" width="130">Overall</td>
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<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;"></td>
<td class="xl64">Plus/Minus</td>
<td class="xl64">Minutes</td>
<td class="xl64">Plus/Minus</td>
<td class="xl64">Minutes</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Millsap</td>
<td class="xl63">-0.1</td>
<td class="xl63">1273</td>
<td class="xl63">2.1</td>
<td class="xl63">2343</td>
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<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Schröder</td>
<td class="xl63">-1.8</td>
<td class="xl63">1746</td>
<td class="xl63">-2.0</td>
<td class="xl63">2485</td>
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<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hardaway</td>
<td class="xl63">2.6</td>
<td class="xl63">1143</td>
<td class="xl63">2.8</td>
<td class="xl63">2154</td>
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<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bazemore</td>
<td class="xl63">-3.4</td>
<td class="xl63">1406</td>
<td class="xl63">-2.8</td>
<td class="xl63">1963</td>
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<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sefolosha</td>
<td class="xl63">-2.5</td>
<td class="xl63">978</td>
<td class="xl63">-0.8</td>
<td class="xl63">1596</td>
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</tbody></table>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
 </div>
<div class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)--sm Mt(0.8em)--sm" content="In other words, this should be a matchup that a player of Dwight Howard’s ability dominates. While Howard is no longer the Elite Defense of One he was in his Orlando prime (with Gortat as his backup), he remains a very good defender who can control the glass nearly by himself. No one expects Howard to average 30 and 20 in a series anymore (except Shaq, maybe), so he should be freed from those past expectations and allowed to do what he does best. If he doesn’t expect a few more years of candy jokes and little else." style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; margin-bottom: 1em;" type="text">
You'll notice that Millsap, in particular, played without Howard on the court. This is why one can be a crank, but not a dangerous crank, in <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/a-brief-preview-advocating-something.html">advocating de-emphasizing Howard in a playoff series</a> against a better, perimeter-oriented opponent.</div>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/5000754332599657377/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=5000754332599657377' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/5000754332599657377'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/5000754332599657377'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/a-dwight-howard-primer.html' title='A Dwight Howard Primer'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-6996084537323288627</id><published>2017-04-13T17:36:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2017-04-13T17:36:44.415-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2017 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>A Brief Preview Advocating Something Extreme</title><content type='html'>The Hawks are deserved underdogs (<a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/specials/basketball/nba">about 33% to win the series</a> at this writing) -- they were worse in the regular season than the Wizards and Washington is a bad matchup for the Hawks to boot. John Wall and Bradley Beal* are too productive for the Hawks'&nbsp;<strike>dynamic</strike> offensive duo of Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;and Tim Hardaway, Jr to get away with their "What if Lillard and McCollum weren't especially good?" act. Instead of playing out the string conventionally and losing on merit, why not make bold choices in an effort to win and, failing that, at least lose** interestingly?
 
*Who is actually good year-round at this point which should allow me to leave behind (finally) my weird tendency to overrate the Wizards every October despite thinking Beal isn't very good. 
 
**Easy for me to say as my employment situation will be entirely unaffected by the results of this series. 
 
Ideally, the Hawks would put their best perimeter defender, Thabo Sefolosha, on Washington's best perimeter offensive player, John Wall, and figure out the rest from there. But Bud has extensive previous in not regularly cross-matching Paul Millsap and Al Horford on LeBron James so expect to see&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;get toasted by Wall. To be fair to Bud,&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;isn't that much less likely to get exposed chasing Beal around the perimeter or resisting the urge to ball-watch and losing track of Otto Porter, Jr. (Samesies for Hardaway, Jr. trying to guard either of Washington's wings.)&nbsp;
 
Such is the fate of a playoff team that gets outscored by 70 points in the regular season: putting one of the best perimeter defenders in the world, blessed with length, strength, and quick hands, on a ball-dominant player (Wall) whose career eFG% outside of the restricted area is 36.8% offers but a partial solution. 
 
What, then, can the Hawks do to pull an upset? 
 
The Wizards have four good players plus Markieff Morris*. They will lean heavily on their starters, but they can't reduce their pitiful bench's contribution to 0 minutes played. On the other hand, how pitiful can a bench look if they get to play almost exclusively against Jose Calderon, Kris Humphries, and Mikey Dunleavy? 
 
*Who renders the good/bad binary insufficient. 
 
Marcin Gortat is the only one of the aforementioned good Wizards the Hawks can profoundly inhibit via a tactical decision by relentlessly going small/playing five-out. Gortat's a fine matchup for Dwight Howard, but vice versa. Making Gortat extend to guard Millsap or Mike Muscala (or Taurean Prince if Washington chooses to cross-match Morris onto Millsap) puts pressure on one piece of a superior starting five. If it encourages Scott Brooks to use the vastly inferior Jason Smith more, all the better. (Considering the Hawks don't have the option of putting more than three good offensive players on the court at one time, getting the opponent to remove one good defender might be their best shot at overachieving their putrid regular season standard of offensive production.)
 
Conversely, if Dwight Howard plays his typical 30 minutes a night, Jason Smith getting the injured Ian Mahinmi's minutes creates a small danger Scott Brooks could exploit: uncontested Jason Smith (36.6% career three-point shooter) three-point attempts.&nbsp; 
 
Dwight Howard doesn't close out on shooters. 1) He isn't really physically capable of doing so, and 2) He's more focused on getting defensive rebounds than forcing misses at this point in his career. The Hawks already struggle to take advantage of basketball math due to their dearth of good shooters. They can't exacerbate the talent differential on the perimeter by giving up multiple open threes per game to Jason Smith while Dwight Howard points in his direction.
 
The truly nightmarish first quarter timeline would be: 
<ol>
<li>Howard draws two early fouls on Gortat, makes one of the four resulting free throw attempts</li>
<li>Jason Smith checks in, makes consecutive threes</li>
<li>While Dwight pulls faces, Dennis Schröder, unsolicited, offers his opinion</li>
<li>Hawks timeout</li>
</ol>
Advocating a thorough (yet temporary) marginalization&nbsp;of Dwight Howard isn't a referendum on his general usefulness. There are still things he can do to contribute to winning basketball games. However, due to poor roster construction, those things don't complement the majority of his teammates, who need helpful spacing and passing to accomplish even slightly below average things on offense.
 
I doubt Bud will demonstrate the humility and short-term flexibility to give Dwight Howard two weeks off in order to increase the chances of playing a second round* of playoff basketball, but the opportunity exists to be <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/12/when-did-atlanta-hawks-succumb-to-fear.html">unafraid</a>.&nbsp; 
 
*Presuming the Celtics win a playoff series for the first time since 2012, the second round would offer a better matchup than the Wizards for both the Hawks (not just because they would have the best player in that series), and Howard, who would have a legitimate opportunity to exploit a Boston weakness by crashing the offensive boards while generally getting to stay within his sphere of defensive influence guarding Amir Johnson on the other end.
 
Prediction:&nbsp; 
<ul>
<li>Wizards in 5</li>
</ul>
Alternative, conditional prediction:&nbsp; 
<ul>
<li>Hawks in 6 (if Dwight Howard plays less than 75 total minutes in the series)</li>
</ul>
 
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/6996084537323288627/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=6996084537323288627' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/6996084537323288627'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/6996084537323288627'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/04/a-brief-preview-advocating-something.html' title='A Brief Preview Advocating Something Extreme'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-7427823220255404781</id><published>2017-01-06T10:25:00.000-05:00</published><updated>2017-01-06T10:25:25.596-05:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><title type='text'>Why Rebuild?</title><content type='html'>Wins and expected wins (based on point differential) for the Atlanta Hawks over the last two-plus seasons, presented visually:
 
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgNcRia5kmfMxF0LuN40GtlY8lvWmxWi8c1aRf3j6i_bcXA6XwgfiM7mUfDhMlvBmWJDqOjOXiWPgFUVbe_MwIXfRXE7DQ-HsnH42LySZtG07_NIHSmoJTdhtuCrT3pl1wHqbg/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgNcRia5kmfMxF0LuN40GtlY8lvWmxWi8c1aRf3j6i_bcXA6XwgfiM7mUfDhMlvBmWJDqOjOXiWPgFUVbe_MwIXfRXE7DQ-HsnH42LySZtG07_NIHSmoJTdhtuCrT3pl1wHqbg/s320/Untitled.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
 
Despite the current five game winning streak, the Hawks still have a significantly worse point differential than the last two seasons. <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2017.html#advanced::25">Two of their top three and three of their top five players by BPM</a> are 31 or older and will be free agents at the end of the season. 
 
I prefer the teams I support to be <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/07/sunday-morning-projections.html">smarter than me</a>, but seeing a team come to terms with what they really are provides a certain comfort.&nbsp; 
 
Next: patience to see if enough small decisions are well-made and hope that the opportunity to make a big decision materializes. 
 
NOTE: 2016-17 wins are pro-rated based on the current .556 win percentage.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/7427823220255404781/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=7427823220255404781' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/7427823220255404781'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/7427823220255404781'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2017/01/why-rebuild.html' title='Why Rebuild?'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgNcRia5kmfMxF0LuN40GtlY8lvWmxWi8c1aRf3j6i_bcXA6XwgfiM7mUfDhMlvBmWJDqOjOXiWPgFUVbe_MwIXfRXE7DQ-HsnH42LySZtG07_NIHSmoJTdhtuCrT3pl1wHqbg/s72-c/Untitled.jpg" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-5550077551933326010</id><published>2016-12-14T12:40:00.000-05:00</published><updated>2016-12-14T12:40:13.444-05:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><title type='text'>When Did the Atlanta Hawks Succumb To Fear?</title><content type='html'>Events have overtaken posts-in-progress. The measured tones of "Kent Bazemore in Context" and "Checking in on Dennis&nbsp;Schröder" seem, frankly, inappropriate in the middle of what feels like an organizational meltdown. Time instead to address the question posed above.
 
Did the Atlanta Hawks succumb to fear when they signed Dwight Howard before Al Horford made a free agent decision?&nbsp; 
 
I give the front office the benefit of the doubt on not knowing whether their key free agent would re-sign. From the outside, it appears Horford didn't know where he would sign until he signed and the chaos of his representation in the year leading up to his free agency couldn't have helped clarify Horford's intentions.&nbsp; 
 
The preemptive willingness to replace Horford (or Millsap) with Howard, and to pay rather dearly for the opportunity, exacerbated the roster's bias toward defensive skill and suggested a preference for a simulacrum of elements of the successful 2014-15 and 2015-16 Hawks teams rather than curiosity about what the next 50-win Hawks team would look like (and how soon that could become a reality). 
 
Did the Atlanta Hawks succumb to fear when they re-signed Kent Bazemore?&nbsp; 
 
This is not unrelated to signing Howard. Once upon a time, Danny Ferry cleared the Hawks' books of bad contracts and acquired good, established, and underrated NBA players: Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, and DeMarre Carroll. Mike Budenholzer's system elevated them to All-Star or near All-Star (in the East, at least) contributors. 
 
Ferry's approach was successful, but his larger strategy -- short, cheap contracts -- was inspired by an NBA with a looming expiration date. Salary cap flexibility becomes less valuable with each additional team which has cap space. The new TV deal recalibrated everything. Salary cap flexibility without a stockpile of trade assets (much of this potential was squandered long before Ferry and Budenholzer arrived in Atlanta) creates further limitations.
 
The Hawks responded by acquiring (and retaining) not players with the Millsap, Korver, or Carroll two-way potential, but defensive-oriented role players: Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, Tiago Splitter, and Dwight Howard. They spent draft picks* and years of roster spots on players (Mike Scott, Mike Muscala, Tim Hardaway, Jr.) with the upside of "playable* 8th- or 9th-man." For some reason, Kris Humphries ended up on the roster instead of Edy Tavares or literally any other professional basketball player under the age of 30.&nbsp;
 
*Which, through no fault of these players' own, becomes less playable as a roster's top-end talent leaves or atrophies. 
 
Korver and Millsap remain on the roster but, due to age and expiring contract respectively, their value to the franchise's future, either as players or trade assets, diminishes&nbsp;daily. The effort to improve the roster stalled, leaving a roster comprised of plus-defensive, minus-offensive players: Howard, Sefolosha, Bazemore, Muscala, possibly plus-offensive, very minus-defensive players:&nbsp;Schröder, Hardaway Jr., Mike Scott, the husk of Korver, the physically unable Tiago Splitter, the even less valuable Kris Humphries and Ryan Kelly, and the TBDs: Malcolm Delaney, Taurean Prince, and DeAndre Bembry. Other than Millsap, no one on the roster can make a shot and stay in front of his man.
 
*I have not given up on the slim possibility that&nbsp;Schröder proves an investment that pays off and am offering no strong opinion yet on Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, Markus Eriksson, or Isaia Cordinier. 
 
Kent Bazemore is exactly the same player he was last season, but he's suffering from playing alongside two fewer good offensive players than last season. He's making a much lower percentage of corner 3s* (31% vs. 41%), taking a higher percentage of long 2s (more than 20% of his FGAs, up from less than 10% his first two seasons in Atlanta), and turning the ball off the dribble far more often (34 times in 608 minutes this season, 83 times in 3400 minutes the last two seasons).
 
*Are the attempts less open this season? An avenue for additional study. 
 
The Hawks have been outscored by 8 points per 100 possessions with Bazemore on the floor this season. The Hawks have been outscored by 8.1 points per 100 possessions with Bazemore and Howard on the floor this season. Kent Bazemore does not have the offensive skill set to survive with less spacing or one less passer on the floor, much less both. 25 games haven't killed Bazemore's trade value, at least among smart teams, but smart teams aren't really who you prefer to trade with.
 
Did the Atlanta Hawks succumb to fear while watching the Cleveland Cavaliers make 77 three-pointers last May?&nbsp; 
 
I don't know if it's specifically&nbsp;pride or arrogance* that turns Mike Budenholzer into Randy Wittman when faced with the very, very difficult puzzle of the Cleveland Cavaliers in a playoff series, but the refusal to take extreme measures to try to overcome an extreme talent deficit baffles me.&nbsp; 
 
*I suspect something similar motivates the organization, in one of its few widely communicated principles, to brag that it is not interested in vast swathes of NBA talent they do not consider to be "Hawks players." 
 
Perhaps it's just a manifestation of the limits to which one can make an impact on an organization. Establishing principles and implementing a clear system? Yes. Improvising in an attempt to succeed in a situation where that system limits you? Maybe not. 
 
Which brings us to my final thought on this subject... 
 
Did the Atlanta Hawks succumb to fear in the fourth quarter of Game 6 against the Indiana Pacers? 
 
Be it pet theory or&nbsp;bête&nbsp;noire, 31 months hasn't not been enough to shake my fears that the Hawks faced their Rubicon on May 1, 2014 and failed to cross it. In the other 27 quarters of the series, 42.4% of the Hawks' field goal attempts were three-pointers. Entering the fourth quarter of Game 6, up 3-2 in the series, up 67-64 in the game, the Hawks attempted just 5* three-pointers (out of 21 field goal attempts) in the fourth quarter.
 
*And one of those coming with 6 seconds left and the Hawks down 7. 
 
At the most important juncture of a series ruled, to that point, by extreme, borderline bizarre events such as Pero Antic dramatically changing Roy Hibbert's career path while making just 3 of 25 three-pointers, the Hawks became normal, conservative.&nbsp; 
 
Should we have known then that success, when it came, and -- boy, howdy -- did success come a few months later, would be possible only when the universe aligned to meet all their terms and conditions? In all other imperfect circumstances, pursuit of the comfort of feeling in control would drive behavior.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/5550077551933326010/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=5550077551933326010' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/5550077551933326010'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/5550077551933326010'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/12/when-did-atlanta-hawks-succumb-to-fear.html' title='When Did the Atlanta Hawks Succumb To Fear?'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-4926153284992692540</id><published>2016-11-20T10:57:00.000-05:00</published><updated>2016-11-20T10:58:38.866-05:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="dwight howard"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="kent bazemore"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="kyle korver"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="rebounding"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="thabo sefolosha"/><title type='text'>Notes on Rebounding</title><content type='html'>As I've written previously, no NBA team could draw more marginal value from Dwight Howard's rebounding ability than the Atlanta Hawks. The freedom (which wasn't certain, at least in my mind) Budenholzer has granted him to attack the offensive glass is massively valuable and may well buoy the offense to league average levels, rather than languishing in the bottom third of the league, as I expected.
 
But, because of how rebounding works, Howard's gaudy, legitimately valuable rebounding totals are two-thirds defensive rebounds and, though he has improved the team's defensive rebounding, therefore broadening the solidity of the defense, all of those defensive rebounds he's grabbing aren't exactly&nbsp;new defensive rebounds for the Hawks. 
 
The joint defensive versatility of Paul Millsap and Al Horford both mitigated the on-the-ball perimeter defensive limitations of their teammates and pressured the opposition into turnovers. The risk of this utility was that at least one of those two was often out of defensive rebounding position when opponents got a shot off. This put tremendous pressure on the wings to box out larger and/or more athletic players. Effort-wise, the wings were exceptional. Results showed the limitations of asking the willing to do something slightly beyond their physical capabilities.
 
With Howard on the court, the wings aren't asked to do this. Thus, Howard is getting both new defensive rebounds and some of the rebounds for which Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Korver used to battle. 

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--&gt;
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 195px;">

<colgroup><col style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 65pt;" width="65"></td>
<td class="xl65" colspan="2" style="width: 130pt;" width="130">Defensive rebound %</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Name</td>
<td class="xl65">2015-16</td>
<td class="xl65">2016-17</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Horford</td>
<td class="xl66">18.2%</td>
<td class="xl63">--</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Howard</td>
<td class="xl63">--</td>
<td class="xl66">31.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bazemore</td>
<td class="xl66">18.0%</td>
<td class="xl66">10.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sefolosha</td>
<td class="xl66">17.1%</td>
<td class="xl66">13.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Korver</td>
<td class="xl66">10.9%</td>
<td class="xl66">9.3%</td>
</tr>

</tbody></table>
 
(Source: <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2017.html">Basketball-reference.com</a>)</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/4926153284992692540/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=4926153284992692540' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4926153284992692540'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4926153284992692540'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/11/notes-on-reboudning.html' title='Notes on Rebounding'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-2054464562214797154</id><published>2016-11-19T10:12:00.000-05:00</published><updated>2016-11-19T10:12:07.509-05:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="hornets"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="offense"/><title type='text'>Friday Night Playoff Preview</title><content type='html'>The fourth quarter in Charlotte on Friday night wasn't a portent of playoff doom, but I suspect we'll see something similar again in April. Not the spectacle* of Dwight Howard getting ejected, but the mostly empty offensive possessions the Hawks managed from 5:54 to 1:17 of fourth quarter.
 
*Howard wasn't playing especially well before the ejection, his frustration with Cody Zeller causing him to call for the ball in the post which, at best, wasted several seconds of half-court possessions. The Hornets could afford to over-defend Howard, fronting him in the post and sagging toward him from weakside because the only Hawk you absolutely can't help off of (someone tell the Bucks this) is Kyle Korver.
 
Mike Muscala missing everything on a wide-open corner 3, Kent Bazemore and Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;losing the ball in the lane after working to beat the initial defender aren't examples of a flawed process, something that can (or needs to) be fixed. They're examples of useful players butting up against the limits of their abilities. Sometimes they will convert those opportunities but more often they simply won't be able.
 
Swarm Millsap, don't help off of Korver, and force the other Hawks on the floor to make plays will be the default defensive strategy against this team on every possession that matters. Dwight Howard's freedom to go after offensive rebounds offers something the Hawks have not previously had on the back-end of initial possessions that end in a missed shot, but he doesn't add much on the front-end* of them.
 
*The&nbsp;Schröder/Howard pick-and-roll may develop enough to change my mind, but right now, teams can throw one to one-and-a-half help defenders toward it safe in the knowledge that&nbsp;Schröder largely operates on a binary - shoot or throw a lob to Howard - decision tree.
 
Running out Malcolm Delaney, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Muscala, and either Paul Millsap or Dwight Howard to grind down opposing second units is a good thing, and a viable path to 50 regular season wins. An effective second unit will be less valuable in the playoffs, where the margins are narrower*, and the team's inability to put multiple multi-dimensional offensive players on the court simultaneously&nbsp;will strangle a fair number of crucial offensive possessions.
 
*Unless you draw a clearly inferior version of yourself, as the Hawks did in the first round last season.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/2054464562214797154/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=2054464562214797154' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2054464562214797154'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2054464562214797154'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/11/friday-night-playoff-preview.html' title='Friday Night Playoff Preview'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-2348713814971225323</id><published>2016-11-07T00:01:00.000-05:00</published><updated>2016-11-07T00:01:04.315-05:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><title type='text'>Explore Your Limitations</title><content type='html'>At some point Monday night, I saw the future and it was ironic. May 2017: A 50-win Hawks team loses in the first round of the playoffs (despite excellent defense across the 6 games). This is the punchline, many pitch their own setups to the joke about the team that maximizes its potential over six months, then submits to variance over two weeks.
 
Two nights later the Hawks, as a 12-point favorite and -1000 to win outright, allowed 123 points on (approximately) 102 possessions to the Los Angeles Lakers. They lost a home game, as overwhelming favorites, wherein Dwight Howard and Tim Hardaway, Jr. combined for 57 points (on 26 shots, no less!). This result did not assuage my fears* about how the team might struggle once the schedule gets more difficult.
 
*<a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400899528">This result</a> recontextualized things for me a bit. 
 
Based on the evidence of their professional basketball careers, the Hawks have two good offensive players: Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver. I suspect that will become an issue, above and beyond collective tactical buy-in and competence, once the playoffs begin AT THE LATEST.&nbsp; 
 
One could argue it became an issue another two nights later when the Hawks followed up the 13 points on 16 shots from Millsap and Korver in the Lakers game with 19 points on 23 shots from them in Washington. Add in a team effort of 16-57 from beyond the arc (11-47 for non-Hardaways) across the two games and the margin for error bends toward definition. 
 
This is a really good defensive team. The Lakers game proved that doesn't guarantee 82 instances of success, but the Hawks will be difficult to score against more often than not. Many nights, they will be absurdly difficult to score against. Especially as long as Thabo Sefolosha and Mike Muscala provide enough decent offense to solidify themselves as (offense) consequence-free primary reserves.
 
The Houston Rockets may or may not turn out to be a good team this season. I suspect they will be the inverse of the Hawks, perhaps even more extreme in their lack of balance between offense and defense. The Rockets, despite the brilliance of James Harden, could not score easily against the Hawks. This is a very good sign. Scoring against the Rockets moves me not a whit. Preventing them from scoring? That warped optimism from Monday returned.
 
Bonus rational thought section 
Showing my work, here's the Hawks against the closing Pinnacle moneyline through six games: 
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--&gt;
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 412px;">

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 1834; mso-width-source: userset; width: 43pt;" width="43"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3882; mso-width-source: userset; width: 91pt;" width="91"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 1834; mso-width-source: userset; width: 43pt;" width="43"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1621; mso-width-source: userset; width: 38pt;" width="38"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2389; mso-width-source: userset; width: 56pt;" width="56"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2176; mso-width-source: userset; width: 51pt;" width="51"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2005; mso-width-source: userset; width: 47pt;" width="47"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 43pt;" width="43">Date</td>
<td style="width: 91pt;" width="91">Opponent</td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" width="43">Closing</td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" width="43">xWin%</td>
<td style="width: 38pt;" width="38">Result</td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" width="56">xWinSum</td>
<td style="width: 51pt;" width="51">Wins</td>
<td style="width: 47pt;" width="47">Diff</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">27-Oct</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Washington</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-172</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">63.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">0.63</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(187, 216, 129); text-align: center;">0.37</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">29-Oct</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">at Philadelphia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-365</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">78.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">1.42</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(147, 204, 126); text-align: center;">0.58</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">31-Oct</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Sacramento</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-290</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">74.4%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">2.16</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(99, 190, 123); text-align: center;">0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">2-Nov</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">LA Lakers</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-1000</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">90.9%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">3.07</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(254, 218, 128); text-align: center;">-0.07</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">4-Nov</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">at Washington</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">102</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">49.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">3.57</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(248, 105, 107); text-align: center;">-0.57</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15pt; text-align: center;">5-Nov</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Houston</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-155</td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center;">60.8%</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td class="xl64" style="text-align: center;">4.17</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td class="xl64" style="background: rgb(252, 195, 124); text-align: center;">-0.17</td>
</tr>

</tbody></table>
 
<div>
Four wins is roughly par against this schedule, per the betting market. Fair enough.</div>
<div>
 </div>
<div>
On the other hand, the Hawks have lost two games by 10 points combined while not winning a game by fewer than 11 points yet. They're +63 through 6 games (+31 in non-Sixers games, which is, perhaps, an over-correction given that the Sixers haven't lost any other game Joel Embiid has participated in by more than 6 points). The schedule will get tougher, but, however you cut it, that's a pretty nice margin of victory rate against any other professional collective.</div>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/2348713814971225323/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=2348713814971225323' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2348713814971225323'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2348713814971225323'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/11/explore-your-limitations.html' title='Explore Your Limitations'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-3046449406228499346</id><published>2016-10-31T00:01:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2016-10-31T00:01:15.891-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="76ers"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Hawks"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="joel embiid"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Wizards"/><title type='text'>Notes On 100% of Something</title><content type='html'>Sure, I could have looked at the schedule before blurting out that you should check this space every Monday, but I didn't and now I have to gin up some perfunctory conclusions after two games, one of them against a legitimate NBA team. Not that winning both of these games, and by healthy margins, should be taken for granted. I say this as someone deeply skeptical of the idea that Bradley Beal is a good NBA player.
 
The Hawks closed at -172 to win against the Wizards and -365 to win against the 76ers, implying a 63% probability of a Hawks win on opening night and 78% on Saturday afternoon. They should have won both games but, by actually winning both games, they outperformed market expectations by 0.58 wins through two games. (I'm now predicting 44 wins.) 
 
What news there is is all good news so far. In brief: 
 
<ul>
<li>Paul Millsap is still excellent (extra credit due for providing another argument in favor of shortening the pre-season).</li>
<li>Kyle Korver, too.</li>
<li>Dwight Howard looked like a good role player (this is actual praise, not a <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=nYQiJZ4AuNMC&amp;pg=PA23&amp;lpg=PA23&amp;dq=robin+wood+smart+ass+and+cutie+pie&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=kJ_7GEYflt&amp;sig=hlQ4tZvrxLDbKpcvTT8fUPM7_pU&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwj1z_vVo4PQAhUCSCYKHWm_BvgQ6AEIIzAC#v=onepage&amp;q=robin%20wood%20smart%20ass%20and%20cutie%20pie&amp;f=false">smart ass and cutie pie</a> faint praise gag).</li>
<li>Thabo Sefolosha keyed some really good bench play against a couple of benches one would hope your team's bench would look good against.</li>
<li>Will Mike Muscala finally be able to convert being in generally good places on the offensive end into good offensive play?</li>
<li>Tim Hardaway, Jr. played pretty well. Not pretty well just by his standards, but by the objective norms of NBA reserves.</li>
<li>No conclusions drawn about point guard play until at least half of their minutes have come against stiffer competition than Trey Burke, Sergio Rodriguez and TJ McConnell.</li>
<li>Joel Embiid has faced Steven Adams and Dwight Howard. He scored 34 points in 38 minutes with a 56.1 TS%. Passing will come (he was credited with 3.6 assists per 100 possessions at Kansas), his defense will tighten up, and, eventually, the turnovers will decline. It is so nice to have him back.</li>
</ul>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/3046449406228499346/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=3046449406228499346' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/3046449406228499346'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/3046449406228499346'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/10/notes-on-100-of-something.html' title='Notes On 100% of Something'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-1479975885289134550</id><published>2016-10-24T00:01:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2016-10-24T07:04:24.143-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="predictions"/><title type='text'>Foundational Guesses: A 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks Season Preview</title><content type='html'>A summary for the busy reader
I'm going with 43 wins, with the understanding that small differences in player projections multiplied by varying minutes estimates for this mystery aggregation of familiar, aging quality and new bets made at confusingly short odds makes any Atlanta Hawks projection between 38 and 48 wins defensible.&nbsp; 
 
Sticking my pin in the mid-point of this (proposed) reasonable range isn't just pessimism in action. I think of the 2014-15 Hawks. I suspected they would be quite good upon Al Horford's return from injury. However, I also suspected that if they again suffered a serious injury (or injuries) they would divest themselves of good players in the final year of their contracts for future assets. (Remember, the Hawks made a belated, futile attempt in March 2014 to miss the playoffs.) Even if we take this summer's activity as a reluctance to rebuild for an entire season, that doesn't preclude one or more mid-season moves in pursuit of longer-term goals followed by actively pursuing free agents - an in-season, on-the-fly rebuild (a refresh? a trade-in?).
 
Bear in mind, the Hawks strongly considered blowing up the team nine months ago while, from December 16 through the end of the season (56 games), posting the same 55-win scoring differential as the 60-win 2015-16 team.&nbsp;This organization is conservative but not incurious.&nbsp;
 Foundational guesses 
This is the first of what I intend to be (roughly) weekly dispatches published in this old, familiar space. Below, I lay out some suppositions about a roster I don't understand (or strongly believe in, frankly, though that's due more to skepticism than certain disbelief) that will provide a framework for me to revisit as evidence about this team accrues over the course of the season.
 
In rough order of importance, but with reflexive rejection of certainty intact: 
 
D----- H----- 
First, on the court: He hasn't been good since he was in Orlando five years ago. He hasn't been useless in the years since, but his value* is strictly as a rebounder and a rim protector. It's undeniable that no team in the NBA is positioned to gain greater marginal value from improved rebounding (offensive and defensive) than the Hawks. If some of those extra defensive rebounds he turn into transition offense**, then one of his remaining skills will have a positive knock-on effect for the offense. However, expectations for him,&nbsp;fair&nbsp;expectations for him at this point in his career, should be "healthy Tiago Splitter."&nbsp;
 
*Q: How can you be a net negative on offense with a TS% of 60 and Usage Rate around 22%? 
A: Turn the ball over on 17% of the possessions you use and get credit for an assist every 50 possessions you're on the court.&nbsp; 
 
**For maximum optimism, best not to linger too long on thoughts of the Hawks' wings dribbling. 
 
The obvious questions about him fitting into a healthy, functioning team system will only be answered in time: 
<ul>
<li>Will he commit to rolling hard to the rim and, if so, how does this help the half-court spacing?&nbsp;</li>
<li>Will a higher volume of rim protection paired with Paul Millsap's defensive versatility be as effective* as the two-headed, all-court disruption Millsap and Al Horford provided?&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
*My guess is yes, if this leads to the Hawks finally making an effort to suppress three-point attempts rather than living with allowing three-point attempts taken late in the shot clock. Of course, they won 60 games two seasons allowing the most three-point attempts in the league so there may be other alternatives in play that lay beyond my ken.
 
Regarding off the court issues, theories and speculation about team building and fan psychology: It hasn't become any less weird that the Hawks signed him before they knew* Horford was leaving.&nbsp;To be clear, offering Horford the max up front (and him taking it) to keep this team together (while low-key stockpiling assets as part of a shadow rebuild) wasn't a high-upside strategy or even a guarantee of <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2015/05/put-it-back-together.html">establishing Mavericks East</a>. It was a path that made sense given what we know about the front office, whereas locking up an inferior center, perhaps increasing the chances Horford chooses to leave, and quite possibly looking to trade Millsap for the best immediately available package (which could very well have led to additional, subsequent moves) made us question what we really knew.
 
*I'm not especially concerned the organization didn't know whether or not Horford was leaving. The chaos of conflicting reports in the minutes immediately before Horford announced he was going to Boston suggests that changing agents twice in the final year of one's contract doesn't necessarily lead to a smooth free agent process.
 
The pessimistic view (the one that came naturally to me) is that it was a move made out of fear of losing something and an absolute refusal to consider a rebuild (at least a year-long rebuild). More optimistic observers saw it as a calculated gamble wherein rehabilitating D----- H-----'s value would make Atlanta a viable free agent destination for current All-Star free agents, not just ex-famous people.
 
I have no doubt such a turn of events would benefit the perception of the organization*, but I think that has more to do with how far&nbsp;D----- H-----'s actual and perceived value has fallen than any three-dimensional chess the Hawks front office is playing. Of course, the world might be so irrational as to make stoking the faint flicker of&nbsp;H-----'s former fame more compelling than Kyle Korver and Millsap becoming All-Stars and DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore becoming very rich men in Atlanta.
 
*Gag, "Basketball Club" 
 
The "good for business" argument in favor of categorizing signing&nbsp;H-----&nbsp;as a clever touch moves me even less. Assuming "former All-Star" is a brand that provides a short-term box office boost, that's not a sustainable business model in an industry that keeps score to literally determine winners and losers.
 
Dennis&nbsp;Schröder 
A series of rational decisions have brought us to the point where Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;is the most important player on the Atlanta Hawks roster. The Hawks traded from their sole source of depth to pick up an extra first-round pick and hand the ball to their younger, cheaper point guard option.
 
The vast range of potential outcomes for Dennis&nbsp;Schröder, starting point guard, could keep the team in the vicinity of 50 wins or encourage the organization to go ahead and blow the team up before the trade deadline. The latter, darker scenario is more straightforward:&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;doesn't get any better and, in an increased role, his offensive weaknesses adversely affect Korver, Millsap and Bazemore, making a below average offense a bad offense.
 
The silver lining of&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;not yet being an above average point guard is that he can get to that level through any combination of potential improvements: 
<ul>
<li>Playing consistently good defense for 2000+ minutes</li>
<li>Improving his finishing at the rim</li>
<li>Getting to the free throw line more often</li>
<li>Becoming a league-average three-point shooter</li>
<li>Not locking into a pass/shoot decision when he turns the corner on the high pick-and-roll</li>
<li>Developing sufficient chemistry with just D----- H----- to create a significant number of ultra-high percentage, cathartic field goal attempts</li>
</ul>
Assuming this is still a conservative organization, that&nbsp;Schröder's&nbsp;improvement could take various forms likely assures him of a full age-23 season to prove himself. Assuming&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;hasn't gone corporate in the offseason, I fail to see how this state of affairs won't be tremendously entertaining.
 
The old, good reliables 
Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver have been terrific (when fully healthy) for the Atlanta Hawks the last three seasons. With Millsap coming off a career year and Korver looking much more like himself in 2016, once his two off-season surgeries were several months behind him, continued belief in both is well-founded. However, it must be acknowledged that any positive prediction for the Hawks this season posits that Mike Budenholzer has unlocked previously latent value such that both will age relative to their performance as Hawks rather than to their career averages. Follow this line of inquiry far enough and one might conclude that their performances this season (assuming good health) will tell us as much about the Hawks' player development capabilities as the younger players.
 
To remain a top-5 defense (given how quickly the wing depth moves into totally unproven/totally unproven to be any good territory) the Hawks will need one more great defensive season from Thabo Sefolosha. There's also the chilling possibility that Sefolosha's ability to impersonate a useful offensive player until the ball leaves his hand (to shoot or dribble) may exceed the offensive value of any other wing coming off the bench.
 
Kent Bazemore, rich man 
There isn't anyone easier to root for or to celebrate getting paid. The Hawks spent a pretty penny to lock in the relative certainty of a familiar and average-ish player for the next couple years. Given the free agent alternatives, it's an eminently fair decision made better by how the Hawks used the 21st pick in the draft. If Bembry develops in his first two season, the Hawks, with he and Bazemore, will have something like Teague/Schröder&nbsp;2.0 and the ability to trade from a position of strength.
 

Rookies 
With the exception of 27-year-old, experienced professional, yet NBA rookie Malcolm Delaney, I expect the Hawks rookies to be, at least initially, limited to garbage time appearances and short reserve stints when a regular rotation player gets a night off. Patience will be key and, given the amount of time invested in Mike Scott, Mike Muscala and Tim Hardaway, Jr. over the last three seasons, I expect the two first-round picks to get plenty of it from the organization.&nbsp;
 
Above, I mentioned expectations for Bembry to develop into a younger, cheaper replacement* for Bazemore by 2018-19. Taurean Prince might be on a slightly more accelerated timeline to become a more active version of Mike Scott by the start of next season. 
 
Delaney will be the most immediately interesting rookie, not just guaranteed backup point guard minutes but fourth-quarter point guard minutes should Dennis&nbsp;Schröder&nbsp;still demonstrate his capability for existential malaise during work hours.
 
*From a team-building point of view, I can't overemphasize the importance of not spending on wings unless they're regularly going to make All-NBA teams. You can get fairly close to the value of the tenth best wing in the league with a good 3-and-D (or playmaking-and-D) wing for a fraction of the cost and use the savings to invest in a primary ball-handler/scorer and two-way bigs.
 
Other centers 
Should&nbsp;D----- H-----&nbsp;not be rejuvenated and remain a slightly above average, one-way player, the Hawks are going to have redundant defensive centers taking up at least 20%* of the roster. Mike Muscala's floor spacing will look a little more valuable, and the question I wrestled with this summer: "Would you rather have&nbsp;D----- H-----&nbsp;or Edy Tavares and $70 million to spend on other players?" will be posed more broadly, even if it's rarely considered polite to utter in public.
 *25% if Tiago Splitter is ever healthy. (I have no expectation that Tiago Splitter will be physically able to contribute this season. Any quality minutes he provides of the bench will be found money.) 
 
Kris Humphries is also on the roster. He is 31 years old and has never been a good NBA player. Yes, he played 56 good minutes for the Hawks in the playoffs last season. 
 
The system 
Despite all of my uncertainty and my disappointment that the Hawks have not addressed their biggest weakness* in either of the last two off-seasons, I'm fairly confident the Hawks retain a solid foundation. I just can't envision a healthy version of this roster imploding over an 82-game season. 
 
Through three seasons, one fundamentally hampered by injury, one a magical** example of possibility, and one a mix of the two, I'm extremely confident that Mike Budenholzer's offense will create (over the course of the regular season at least) enough open three-point shots (even if too many of them are created for slightly below average three-point shooters) to win the math against all but elite opposition.
 
*Three-point shooting ability 
 
**No storybook ending, granted 
 
On the other end of the court, even though adjustments will need to be made in how they swap Al Horford's defensive versatility for more traditional defensive center play, the Hawks will give a lot of minutes to above average and very good defensive players at four positions. There's slightly more certainty to good defense (at least if you're aiming for competence, first, then excellence, if applicable) and I expect this team to take comfort in that, grinding out results while in the process of integrating new elements.
 
Let's watch basketball and find out.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/1479975885289134550/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=1479975885289134550' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1479975885289134550'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1479975885289134550'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/10/foundational-guesses-2016-17-atlanta.html' title='Foundational Guesses: A 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks Season Preview'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-9001866568058924712</id><published>2016-07-03T09:40:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2016-07-03T09:41:34.154-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="predictions"/><title type='text'>Sunday Morning Projections</title><content type='html'>I'm going to hold off on writing about the off-season in any depth until at least one transaction is official. In the meantime, back of the envelope BPM noodling for the 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks, based on the incomplete knowledge we have:
 
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 267px;">

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3584; mso-width-source: userset; width: 84pt;" width="84"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3029; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="71"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2389; mso-width-source: userset; width: 56pt;" width="56"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 84pt;" width="84">Player</td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 71pt;" width="71">Minutes</td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="56">OBPM</td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="56">DBPM</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Schroder</td>
<td class="xl67">2500</td>
<td class="xl67">-0.5</td>
<td class="xl67">-0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Korver</td>
<td class="xl67">2400</td>
<td class="xl67">0.5</td>
<td class="xl67">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bazemore</td>
<td class="xl67">2294</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.5</td>
<td class="xl67">1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Millsap</td>
<td class="xl67">2700</td>
<td class="xl67">1.1</td>
<td class="xl67">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Howard</td>
<td class="xl67">2100</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.0</td>
<td class="xl67">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Backup PGs</td>
<td class="xl67">1436</td>
<td class="xl67">-2.6</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sefolosha</td>
<td class="xl67">1700</td>
<td class="xl67">-2.0</td>
<td class="xl67">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hardaway Jr</td>
<td class="xl67">1000</td>
<td class="xl67">-0.5</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bembry</td>
<td class="xl67">500</td>
<td class="xl67">-2.0</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Scott</td>
<td class="xl67">1000</td>
<td class="xl67">-0.4</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Prince</td>
<td class="xl67">600</td>
<td class="xl67">-0.7</td>
<td class="xl67">-2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Muscala</td>
<td class="xl67">600</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.2</td>
<td class="xl67">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Splitter</td>
<td class="xl67">550</td>
<td class="xl67">-1.9</td>
<td class="xl67">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Tavares</td>
<td class="xl67">300</td>
<td class="xl67">-3.5</td>
<td class="xl67">1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">(blank)</td>
<td class="xl67"></td>
<td class="xl67"></td>
<td class="xl67"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">TOTAL</td>
<td class="xl69">19680</td>
<td class="xl70">-3.8</td>
<td class="xl70">3.9</td>
</tr>

</tbody></table>
 



This would roughly be a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense, good for 41 wins, give or take a few. I'll update as the summer progresses. 
 

Notes: 
<ul>
<li>These are conservative, weighted heavily toward career averages, but tilted toward Hawks career averages (so maybe that's a really optimistic projection for Tim Hardaway, Jr.)</li>
<li>The above projects a bounce-back season for Dwight Howard</li>
<li>I plugged in established replacement-level backup point guard Norris Cole's career averages as a placeholder for the backup point guards the Hawks will eventually acquire</li>
<li>Just guessing for Bembry and Prince, but unless the roster composition changes I don't think they'll play enough minutes for my ignorance when it comes to projecting rookies to have much of an impact on team-level projections</li>
</ul>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/9001866568058924712/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=9001866568058924712' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/9001866568058924712'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/9001866568058924712'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/07/sunday-morning-projections.html' title='Sunday Morning Projections'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8053728971029722967</id><published>2016-05-03T11:26:00.003-04:00</published><updated>2016-05-03T11:26:56.466-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2016 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="cavaliers"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="tactics"/><title type='text'>What Asymmetrical Discipline Might Look Like</title><content type='html'>The Atlanta Hawks are a below-average offensive team currently in the second round of the NBA playoffs largely due to excellent defense. They are facing a team with two-plus players (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, JR Smith often enough relative to his role, or Tristan Thompson whenever the Hawks force a miss) capable of individually overcoming a meaningful percentage of good defensive possessions.&nbsp;
 
The Hawks were fortunate to be unfortunate to lose Game 1 given how meekly they bent to the will of Cleveland's defensive game plan in the first half (You're really going to let us take all these contested two-point shots in the paint?!) and how the offense drifted away, over the final six-and-a-half minutes, from what had gotten them back in the game. Inattention, or a lack of commitment, to details will condemn the Hawks to a series loss (that is probable anyway, but humor me).
 
Here are the best ways the Hawks can try to win the series: 
 
<ul>
<li>Paul Millsap, Al Horford, or Thabo Sefolosha guards LeBron James on every possession. The Hawks, inferior shooters, have to attempt more three-pointers than the Cavs to have any chance of winning. Suppress Cleveland's three-point volume by encouraging Kevin Love post-ups with 12 seconds or less left on the shot clock. Bonus: If Love is shooting, the Hawks only have one rampant offensive rebounding big man to account for.</li>
<li>Grabbing 76% of defensive rebounds isn't great, it's average, but average defensive rebounding is a bonus for the Hawks and better than the league did against the Cavs this season. Between personnel and scheme (Millsap and Horford mitigating a paucity of plus perimeter defenders by defending away from the basket and/or challenging shots at the rim) it takes a collective effort to exceed reasonable expectations. Hard, tiring, necessary work. Do it and I'll lead the accolades.</li>
<li>Similarly, continue to err on the side of recklessness when closing out on three-point shooters.&nbsp;The Hawks, inferior shooters, have to attempt more three-pointers than the Cavs to have any chance of winning.&nbsp;</li>
<li>As much as the Hawks struggled to get the ball in the basket against the Celtics, imagine how bad it could have been had Boston demonstrated an ability to execute the commonly accepted rules for guarding Kyle Korver in 2016. Korver got a couple months' worth of open looks off of a single screen. It was remarkable. JR Smith (and Iman Shumpert in reserve) is not going to allow that volume to Atlanta's most consistent offensive player. The response? Back cuts. Between JR Smith's denial and LeBron James' occasional ball-watching, Korver, Kent Bazemore, and Sefolosha will have the&nbsp;opportunity&nbsp;to contribute a handful of high-quality, two-point shots in the halfcourt.</li>
<li>Make Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love defend the point of attack every halfcourt possession when they're on the floor. The Hawks went away from this the moment Dennis Schroder rested after his 15-point, 3-assist 10:37 stretch across the third- and fourth-quarters. They did not recover.</li>
<li>I repeat: The Hawks, inferior shooters, have to attempt more three-pointers than the Cavs to have any chance of winning. Schroder and Bazemore had the right idea by launching 10 three-pointers each. Teague, Millsap, and Horford should each do the same at least once in the series.</li>
<li>Don't throw away any more possessions by having Tim Hardaway, Jr. on the court. You let Iman Shumpert dribble 25 feet from above the break for a layup, you're done for the series. Any of Sefolosha missing open shots, dual-point guard lineups, tired Bazemore or Korver is a better alternative with margins this narrow.</li>
<li>Related: don't mindlessly use the one-dimensional reserves, either. Mike Scott is capable of helping the offense. Sefolosha and Mike Muscala will help build good defensive possessions. None of the three can overcome their weaknesses in a vacuum. Play them in 5-man units and against 5-man units that will leverage their strengths and mitigate weaknesses.</li>
</ul>
 
All of this may well not be enough. If so, I hope the lesson learned is that taking tactical chances at least increased the chances of winning, and similar chances are taken with the roster this summer. Even if Horford re-signs, the window (such as it is) is 12-24 months. Redundant point guards and coaching up guys from unplayable to league-average eighth- or tenth-men is not a talent maximization strategy likely to get you to the finals.&nbsp;
 
Competence is a welcome change for the Atlanta Hawks franchise but competence used as a platform for the occasional daring leap could create much more.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8053728971029722967/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8053728971029722967' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8053728971029722967'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8053728971029722967'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/05/what-asymmetrical-discipline-might-look.html' title='What Asymmetrical Discipline Might Look Like'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-4271316799559228686</id><published>2016-04-27T09:02:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2016-04-27T09:02:27.876-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2016 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Celtics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="defense"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><title type='text'>DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE!</title><content type='html'>But first, three paragraphs largely about offense. I am not a complete crack-pot.
 
For the first 18 minutes of the game, the Hawks had a ridiculous eFG% of 20.5%. For the next 18 minutes of the game, the Hawks had a ridiculous&nbsp;eFG%&nbsp;of 84.2%. For the entirety of the meaningful 36&nbsp;minutes of the game, the Hawks had a reasonable&nbsp;eFG%&nbsp;of 54.2%.&nbsp; 
 
 
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXoOgGpJMjO40O1x5BsAgkWS3zp-0z-xxgPPKth1eCnYSRF6jw7UPoY1tv5ABVHUxTMjcKXSpVmDFWedgqstYfNjrcn5Subi9UfYjWs5cEWlUXwiWNYPOWpA01kuHx86s2XiRa/s1600/hal9000.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXoOgGpJMjO40O1x5BsAgkWS3zp-0z-xxgPPKth1eCnYSRF6jw7UPoY1tv5ABVHUxTMjcKXSpVmDFWedgqstYfNjrcn5Subi9UfYjWs5cEWlUXwiWNYPOWpA01kuHx86s2XiRa/s320/hal9000.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
 
There are reasons beyond cold probability that the Hawks shot significantly better for one stretch of the game than another. The Celtics came out playing very good defense from the jump. Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko took Marcus Smart's lead, getting physical leverage against Paul Millsap and Al Horford in the post. Smart and Isaiah Thomas defended Kyle Korver as well as they have so far in the series. That the Hawks were not getting the typical looks that allowed them to shoot 51.6% over 82 games contributed to them shooting 20.5% for a quarter-and-a-half last night.
 
Similarly, it is not entirely coincidental that the Hawks started making shots with unsustainable frequency at roughly the same moment they started turning stops into transition opportunities. A below average offense looked significantly better when it didn't have to face a set defense as often.&nbsp;<strike>Analysis!</strike> Observation. 
 
The most frustrating thing about watching the Hawks spend much of the last four playoff series missing a higher percentage of shots than they have over the last two regular seasons is, natch, watching the Hawks miss shots. The second most frustrating thing is the tendency to formulate a supernatural explanation for the misses. 
 
It's not impossible that the Hawks have struggled to convert the chances they're pleased to have created in the playoffs due to a collective character or psychological defect, but I contend the defensive performance they put on, possession-by-possession while shooting 20.5%, at home, in front of an increasingly anxious and frustrated audience demonstrates tremendous discipline and commitment. Which conforms with my prejudice to dismiss the character/psychological explanation for missed shots. Funny how that works.
 
Variance is not confined to shot-making. Though they've been excellent overall, the Hawks have not been perfect defensively for all five games in this series. They looked shockingly unprepared in the first quarter of Game 3. The transition defense* fell apart in the second half of the third quarter of Game 4. Still, the Hawks are holding the Celtics to 95 points per 100 possessions in this series, by bettering their <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2016.html">second-best defense in the regular season</a> numbers in <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2016-nba-eastern-conference-first-round-celtics-vs-hawks.html">three of the four factors</a>.
 
*The chief culprit in Game 4, Mike Scott, was excellent for the second time this series, in Game 5. 
 
The Hawks entered the playoffs with a 2-3% chance of winning the title, a 7-8% chance of winning the East, because they allowed 5 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league this season. The Hawks entered the playoffs with a 2-3% chance of winning the title, a 7-8% chance of&nbsp;winning the East,&nbsp;because they scored 1.3 points fewer than the league per 100 possessions this season. Offensive struggles, especially comical offensive struggles, tend toward the obvious. That's but half the story.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/4271316799559228686/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=4271316799559228686' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4271316799559228686'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/4271316799559228686'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/04/de-fense-de-fense.html' title='DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE!'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXoOgGpJMjO40O1x5BsAgkWS3zp-0z-xxgPPKth1eCnYSRF6jw7UPoY1tv5ABVHUxTMjcKXSpVmDFWedgqstYfNjrcn5Subi9UfYjWs5cEWlUXwiWNYPOWpA01kuHx86s2XiRa/s72-c/hal9000.jpg" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8557846447962686993</id><published>2016-04-24T21:23:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2016-04-24T21:26:26.955-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2016 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Celtics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><title type='text'>Chains, Weakest Links, Etc.</title><content type='html'>Paul Millsap was spectacular, the Hawks were playing their brand of top-drawer defense (excellent first shot defense, some occasional slippage when the opposition grabbed offensive rebounds), and they were in good shape to survive the dreaded joint indecisive performances from Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder*.
 
*Upon whom it is now clearly established to be open season. 
 
The Hawks were up 13 points with 6:33 left in the third quarter. Mike Scott entered the game and was a complete disaster defensively for the next 6:33. Marcus Smart's semi-transition layup at 5:33 was due to Scott panicking and forcing Kent Bazemore not to pick up Smart in transition. Scott could not stay in front of Smart on the downhill, natch. Jonas Jerebko's two threes - at 1:23 to cut Atlanta's lead to 8 and at 0:20 to cut Atlanta's lead to 3 - were both directly attributable to Scott losing all contact with Jerebko at the first opportunity.&nbsp;
 
Scott wouldn't play again, but it was game-on at that point, enough for the short-term variance of the Celtics making slop (Marcus Smart's two threes, Isaiah Thomas banking in a 15-footer he threw up at roughly 19-foot weight from the top of the key) while the Hawks missed high-percentage shots (Horford missed a jump hook on the block, a wide-open corner 3, plus wide-open, spot-up 15- and 19-footers, Korver missed both his threes) in the fourth quarter. Said variance then made meaningful Teague dribbling out the final 15 seconds of a tie game in regulation, and the Celtics thoroughly outplaying the Hawks in overtime.
 
For the glass-half full types, perhaps the Hawks combined the Teague/Schroder dual dud and the lack of quality depth potential losses into a single L. For those inclined toward pessimism, the Hawks just dropped a pair of winnable games against a shameless bunch to reduce their chances of winning the series to home-court advantage over a three-game sample size.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8557846447962686993/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8557846447962686993' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8557846447962686993'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8557846447962686993'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/04/chains-weakest-links-etc.html' title='Chains, Weakest Links, Etc.'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8361439937606163977</id><published>2016-04-23T09:54:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2016-04-23T09:54:53.688-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2016 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Celtics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><title type='text'>Atlanta's Missing 72 Hours</title><content type='html'>Game 2 was so <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25560491/three-ways-avery-bradleys-absence-hurt-celtics-in-game-2-loss-to-hawks">broadly</a>, <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25560601/celtics-made-horrendous-decisions-defending-kyle-korver-in-game-2">quickly</a>, and <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15278135/the-celtics-out-loss-avery-bradley">thoroughly</a> discussed by professional basketball writers on Wednesday that I didn't bother tossing off a regurgitation of themes in this space. The consensus was that Brad Stevens had a couple of remaining options to mitigate the matchup problems caused by the opposition and his own team's poor health: replace Jared Sullinger to improve spacing and play Isaiah Thomas off the ball to get him opportunities to attack a defense in flux.&nbsp;So why did the Hawks look unprepared for these Boston adjustments defensively? What were they preparing to face for the last 72 hours?
 
In Game 3, the Celtics started Jonas Jerebko for Sullinger and forced Jeff Teague to chase Isaiah Thomas around the court while Evan Turner initiated offense. The Hawks appeared completely unprepared for the former, sagging toward the lane in their established manner then frantically trying to close down the extra four feet to Jerebko beyond the three-point line.&nbsp; 
 
When you attack the ball, when you help and recover in sync as much as the Hawks do on defense, four feet is a meaningful distance. If you don't close those four feet? You're either giving up an open shot on the first pass or the next defensive rotation has more ground/less time to close out on the recipient of the next pass. In the first quarter, the Celtics moved the ball and the Hawks couldn't move farther and faster. The Celtics made five three-pointers (Jerebko, Turner, and Jae Crowder* each made their only three-pointer of the game in the first 9:12 of the game), 7 of 11 two-pointers, had a free throw rate of 38.1** and grabbed 25% of the (few) possible offensive rebounds.
 
*Crowder's three to put the Celtics up 29-14 was perhaps the greatest indictment of the Hawks' lack of defensive execution. Paul Millsap helped down to about 8 feet on a Jared Sullinger iso/post-up in the lane that Mike Muscala (about whom, more below) had under control. Millsap's attention encouraged Sullinger to think about the pass and it was an easy one to make. In short, Millsap gave up an open, spot-up three to a <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/crowdja01.html">32% career three-point shooter</a> to double a <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sullija01.html#shooting::none">career 39% shooter from 3-10 feet</a> who struggles to score against length (<a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2012-03-31-kansas.html">we remember you, Jeff Withey</a>).
 
**Season average free throw rate for Hawks opponents: 19.4. Boston's free throw rate in Games 1 and 2 combined: 14.2. 
 
I think the Hawks can adjust to the personnel change. In the last three quarters of Game 3, the Celtics only made six threes, their free throw rate was down to 26.2 (though that would have been higher had the Celtics not missed 7 free throws), and they only grabbed 15% of 33 offensive rebound opportunities. On the other hand, the Celtics continued making two-point shots at a high rate (51.2%) over the final three quarters. There was more space in the lane (and more transition opportunities) than in the first two games. That's where Isaiah Thomas playing off the ball causes real concerns.
 
Jeff Teague has worked hard over the past three seasons to make himself a passable pick-and-roll defender (at least when he gets to work with Millsap or Al Horford). Chasing a faster player off the ball doesn't allow him to draw on any of those skills he's developed and reduces him to his lowly, natural defensive state. It's not a matter of effort. Teague is trying, but he's being asked to do something new and difficult at the part of basketball he's least good at, at the age of nearly 28.
 
So how do the Hawks counter? I suspect it will be by rotating their better off-the ball defenders: Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, even Dennis Schroder (when the Hawks play him with Teague*). The hope would be that extra defensive length could trouble Thomas with late close-outs** and that Evan Turner could easily be tempted into taking a lot of mid-range, dribble-heavy isos when guarded by Teague. The Hawks should be willing for Evan Turner to attempt all the two-point shots he wants.
 
*The&nbsp;Teague/Schroder combo was +1 in 6:22 in Game 3. Nothing in that sentence is meaningful other than eliminating "That was awful. Never try that again." from Mike Budenholzer's rotation decision-making tree. 
 
**They would have to be controlled closeouts, running guys off the three-point line, as the Hawks did so consistently well this season. Atypically, the Hawks repeatedly, wildly contested not-that-dangerous two-point jump shots in Game 3. Their defensive excellence is predicated on playing aggressively and not fouling. Take either element away and they quickly trend toward mere above-averageness defensively. Their offense can't make up for that consistently.
 
On the other end of the floor, the Hawks continued to create good looks and continued to struggle to convert them. Non-Korver Hawks made 4-27 three-point attempts (they would be expected to make ~9 of those over a long enough sample, or, Marcus Smart made as many three-pointers in 4 attempts as Bazemore, Teague, Millsap, Horford, and Schroder did in 20 attempts) and did the following from 5:45 to 3:06&nbsp;of the game&nbsp;(from 98-101 to 100-104):
 
<ul>
<li>5:45 - Millsap missed dunk (contested by Isaiah Thomas!)</li>
<li>5:31 - Teague layup blocked by Evan Turner</li>
<li>4:56 - Teague missed runner/layup</li>
<li>4:22 - Horford misses six-footer on the block</li>
<li>3:49 - Bazemore made layup</li>
<li>3:06 - Horford transition layup blocked by Marcus Smart</li>
</ul>
 
Process? <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/nba/post/_/id/18434/celtics-deliver-best-shot-and-win-but-hawks-should-feel-confident">I'm certain the Hawks think so</a>. Sunday would be a nice time to show their work. 
 
Notes on the benches: 
 
<ul>
<li>Dennis Schroder has played very good basketball over the last two games. Mostly defensively in Game 2 and mostly offensively in Game 3. I don't know that the Celtics are on the right side of their risk/reward calculation re: hitting and baiting Schroder. Sure, you might wind him up enough to retaliate or make a few bad decisions&nbsp;with the ball in his hands&nbsp;in the short-term, but if he gets going you've&nbsp;got no one who can stay in front of him and all of a sudden Teague is the&nbsp;second-best point guard the Hawks have that night.&nbsp;Schroder may frustrate the Hawks, but they love him cooking more than you hate him chirping and a good Schroder game elevates whatever marginal teamwork value exists from an adrenalized boost of fraternal feelings about a common opponent.</li>
<li>Marcus Smart's block on Horford in transition makes his&nbsp;<a href="https://vine.co/v/iU7dIE2x90L">flopping</a>, sloppy execution (MARCUS SMART CANNOT CONCENTRATE LONG ENOUGH TO GUARD KYLE KORVER), and poor shot selection even more frustrating. It would be a shame if Smart never becomes more than a high-energy Josh Smith with a worse offensive game.</li>
<li>Mike Scott continues to play fine-to-good basketball in this series, though committing a lane violation when Korver is at the line to complete a Crawford to tie the game is a maddening demerit.</li>
<li>Mike Muscala continues to show why his consistency led to him falling out of the rotation again this season. He offers consistently strong defense and ineffective offense. His spacing and movement on offense is theoretically sound but consistently less productive than you want. He's not a Pero Antic-level defensive savant, so he needs to figure out how to get the ball in the basket without turning it over. (Career 57% TS% and 33% from three though, so maybe the inconsistent minutes are fooling my puny human brain.)</li>
<li>It's a toss up on who provided emptier minutes between Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Kirk Hinrich. Which is less of a surprise than Budenholzer playing them a combined six minutes in a competitive game when the Hawks last played on Tuesday. If close, road playoff games don't warrant playing your handful of best players 36+ minutes, then what are we all doing here?</li>
</ul>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8361439937606163977/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8361439937606163977' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8361439937606163977'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8361439937606163977'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/04/atlantas-missing-72-hours.html' title='Atlanta's Missing 72 Hours'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-577363049651933041</id><published>2016-04-17T14:40:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2016-04-17T14:40:11.329-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2016 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Celtics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="game recap"/><title type='text'>Brad Stevens Has Matchup Problems</title><content type='html'>There are only so many out of bounds plays Brad Stevens will have the opportunity to call. The Celtics have to figure out a way to get stops because they have to get transition opportunities to score with any sort of efficiency. If anyone other than Isaiah Thomas is dribbling, they look like a college offense and even Thomas was, at times, reduced to throwing himself into the nearest defender and hoping for a referee to bail him out.&nbsp;
 
The Celtics were probably fortunate to give up only 102 points. You can maybe wave away the totality of sending the Hawks to the free throw line 35 times through references to late-game intentional fouling and referees with very inconsistent views on allowable contact, but the Celtics don't typically play defense without fouling. They have to be aggressive to force turnovers at their preferred rate. And I don't think you can sell any of the favored narratives used to pretend defenses have a significant influence on single-game three-point percentage. The Hawks 27 three-point attempts were generally taken by the players the Hawks want taking three-pointers, they weren't unduly contested, and they didn't overwhelmingly occur late in the shot clock.&nbsp;
 
I don't know what Stevens can do differently, given his personnel, to force the Hawks into lower-percentage field goal attempts. Even hoping the Hawks continue to miss shots is extra cold comfort when you've just let the Atlanta Hawks (the Atlanta Hawks!) grab 27% of their misses. That's an indictment of either your execution or your talent. Amir Johnson is, and always has been, a good player but Millsap and Horford are better than he is at everything he's good at. Stevens showed little interest in playing Kelly Olynyk significant minutes. Jonas Jerebko can only hope to out-Mike Scott Mike Scott*. Jared Sullinger? You can't expect a fat guy with a terrible haircut to accomplish anything substantial against Al Horford.
 
*Mike Scott played as well as you could hope, more than making up for Dennis Schroder's disappointingly passive play to give the Hawks a crucial seventh contributor. Scott also passed Schroder as the Hawk most likely to take a swing at Marcus Smart. Speaking of, I thought Smart, despite being +6 for the game, offers the greatest hope for improvement for the Celtics in Game 2 and beyond simply by not taking six three-pointers again and showing better assignment discipline when asked to guard Korver.
 
It's widely recognized going small helps the Celtics less against the Hawks than it does against most teams because the Hawks, since Tiago Splitter was lost for the season, already play 5 out all the time. Going small has less positive impact when Jae Crowder appears incapable of keeping Jeff Teague in front of him. Stevens can't even hide Isaiah Thomas on Kent Bazemore if Bazemore moves without the ball because Thomas will get caught ball-watching.&nbsp;
 
All the Celtics guards and wings (with the exception of the now, <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15222772/2016-nba-playoffs-avery-bradley-boston-celtics-unlikely-play-rest-atlanta-hawks-series-due-hamstring-strain">sadly absent</a>, Avery Bradley) are drawn to the ball, leaving them susceptible to quick, constant, and sound ball and player movement. Which is understandable, given that I started this by talking about how they have to create transition opportunities to score consistently. Such is the stress of being a good team confronting a challenge directed squarely at what you believe makes you good.&nbsp;
 
To their credit, there's almost no chance that any doubt the Hawks create for the Celtics will adversely effect Boston's level of effort. Which forces the Hawks to apply relentless pressure to make the Celtics crack the only place they will, the only place that matters: the scoreboard. 
 
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/577363049651933041/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=577363049651933041' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/577363049651933041'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/577363049651933041'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2016/04/brad-stevens-has-matchup-problems.html' title='Brad Stevens Has Matchup Problems'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8382885931322322883</id><published>2015-05-27T17:09:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2015-05-27T17:09:21.926-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2015 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="free agency"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="hypothetical transactions"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="NBA Draft"/><title type='text'>Put It Back Together</title><content type='html'>Through a combination of poor play, poor coaching, and poor health, the 60-win Hawks broke in the Eastern Conference Finals. A dreadful Game 4 performance doesn't mean they shattered into an infinite number of pieces, never to be reassembled. Gallows humor was the healthiest response to the events of Game 4, but that single debacle shouldn't overshadow that the Hawks threw away a chance to win Game 1 due to their curious first-half defensive gameplan and (another playoff game defined by) a second-half medley of missed open shots. Poor game management, on the floor and from the bench, cost the Hawks Game 3 in both regulation and overtime. It was a bad week, but not one that guaranteed playoff elimination, much less one that proved or disproved much about a wildly successful regular season.
 
Basketball philosophy will always tie this version of the Hawks to the Spurs, but their road to an NBA championship will look much more like the Mavericks: win 50 games a year, every year for a decade, and cash in one of your chances. It will take a minor miracle for these Hawks to acquire a player the caliber of Tim Duncan or David Robinson, but it's not impossible (a healthy) Al Horford could approximate the value of early-30s Dirk Nowitzki. Surround him with affordable, productive veterans, turn at least one role player into a difference-maker through context and performance, and you've got a chance. The Hawks weren't far off this season, and the difference may simply have been the cumulative impact of injuries and wounds.
 
Because of all the wasted resources during the Atlanta Spirit Group's ownership -- trading away first-round picks, making bad draft picks, losing good first-round picks without compensation -- maintaining a 50-win team with an annual chance to win a title will require the basketball side to make consistent good decisions, and that those good decisions work out. The Hawks aren't in as good a place as they are today without the two trades Danny Ferry made on July 11, 2012. They were massively important deals, but they weren't a solution. They solved one problem and created opportunity, but they did not add assets.
 
The Hawks (once putting a permanent GM in place) will surely explore all trade* and free agency options this summer. Starting the 2015-16 season with three starters 29 or older, coming off career years (that each ended in injury), and paying the trio twice as much for the privilege isn't utopian, but it may be the best case, short-term scenario. Worrying about standing pat with a wildly successful starting five is, admittedly, a strongly pessimistic point of view. Even if it's an unnecessarily pessimistic concern, those five will require significant improvement of roster spots 8-15 to get better.&nbsp;
 
*Considering the most enticing (non-Horford) package the Hawks would want to put together would consist of Teague or Schroder, plus Mike Scott, maybe and/or Bazemore, and Austin Daye's unguaranteed deal, they're unlikely to be involved in a blockbuster, but will surely look to shed some cheap, young, dead weight for a contributor or additional assets. 
 
Likely having reached the limit of the value to be derived from creating wide-open threes for competent shooters (which appears to be making 35% of their 3PTAs in the regular season, possibly much less in the playoffs), the Hawks would be well served to acquire good shooters. The problem being that everybody wants good shooters and the Hawks are probably too good already to be helped by adding any one-dimensional shooters. A one-dimensional shooter isn't a significant improvement over Antic, Bazemore, or Scott. The Hawks need a wing shooter who can also defend, a big man who can shoot and defend, or or a big man who can shoot and rebound, a big man who can defend and rebound.
 
Theorizing out of the way, how could this work? Assume the Hawks re-sign Millsap and Carroll (which both sides want and there's probably a decent-sized band of years and money which makes everybody happy in both cases and both will likely have trade value in future years), Mike Muscala slides into Pero Antic's role, Pero re-signs to fill Elton Brand's savvy veteran who plays 500 minutes role, the Hawks draft a young wing* or <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we-interrupt-this-eulogy-for-the-nba-post-up-game-to-bring-you-its-rebirth/">playmaking four</a>** in the first round, draft Alan Williams in the second round, plus an international prospect if they keep a second, second-round pick.
 
*Without having done my research, Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, RJ Hunter, and Kelly Oubre are all viable candidates and the Hawks may have their pick of the lot. 
 
**Same caveat: Kevon Looney's the only real candidate in this category who will potentially be available at 15, I think. 
 
That gives a no-trades, free agency loss-less version of the Hawks an asset roster of: 
 
PGs: Teague, Schroder, Mack 
Wings: Korver, Carroll, Sefolosha, #15 pick, Bazemore 
Bigs: Millsap, Horford, Muscala, Antic, Williams, Scott 
Non-guaranteed contract for non-player: Daye 
Draft rights: Walter Tavares*, Lamar Patterson 
All their own draft picks 
Extra future draft picks: Brooklyn's 2017 second-round pick, Miami's 2017 or 2018 second-round pick**, a top-14 protected first-round pick from Minnesota (2018-2020) OR Minnesota's 2020 and 2021 second-round picks 
 
*I don't think Tavares comes over next season if the Hawks keep Millsap, while also trying to integrate Muscala and a first-round pick into the rotation. Then again, the Eastern Conference champion didn't get above .500 for good until mid-January so maybe next season the Hawks punt November and half of December instead of the end of March and the first half of April.
 
**Pick is protected from 31-40 in 2017, unprotected in 2018. 
 
There's probably enough there at the margins to consolidate a few pieces into a real contributor that's superfluous to or under-appreciated by another team, while also creating player development opportunities. The flip side is that there's probably nothing there that will have multiple teams picking up the phone to instigate a bidding war, though the Hawks will surely listen to any team willing to overpay for anyone or anything, even Horford.
 
Even if the Hawks lack a clear path forward in terms of personnel decisions, the organization has a very clear idea* of how they will achieve success. However, that clarity is no guarantee of success. There's no way to plan so well as to eliminate injuries, fully control developmental curves (for players, coaches, and the front office), or always overcome the other team's desire and ability to beat you in a seven-game series.
 
*And make no mistake: that idea begins with acquiring a superstar before, failing that, working its way down to something that resembles the 2014-15 Hawks. 
 
It's difficult, in the wake of a clear vision of exactly how the Hawks reach the NBA Finals, a vision subsequently proven profoundly out of touch with actual events, to embrace the uncertainty of the offseason, with its countless actors, seen and unseen, conflicting agendas, and strange bedfellows. Whatever anticipatory comfort one finds takes the form of trusting in the Hawks knowing what they want to be and the entire organization's ability to learn from their mistakes and shortcomings.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8382885931322322883/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8382885931322322883' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8382885931322322883'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8382885931322322883'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2015/05/put-it-back-together.html' title='Put It Back Together'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-2411830085526863381</id><published>2015-05-19T17:45:00.001-04:00</published><updated>2015-05-19T17:45:28.190-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="2015 playoffs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="predictions"/><title type='text'>A Distant Voice Previews the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals</title><content type='html'>The 60-win Atlanta Hawks are underdogs in this series.
&nbsp; &nbsp; 
This makes some kind of sense. David Griffin made the gold-standard GM move this summer by signing LeBron James as a free agent. He made a big, bold offseason trade to add Kevin Love. He made two good in-season trades in a three-day period* to add JR Smith and Iman Shumpert and a first-round pick while simultaneously shedding Dion Waiters**, then acquire Timofey Mozgov to fill an Anderson Varejao-shaped void for the OKC first-round pick they got for Waiters and another future, protected first-rounder.&nbsp;
 
The
Cavaliers are good. They have the ten-time reigning best player in
basketball, they’ve consistently been in the news for positive and/or
interesting transactions, and they’re much better on offense than
defense. 
&nbsp; *Coming six and eight days, respectively, after Cleveland’s second loss to the Hawks this season. **WOAT &nbsp;
The 2014-15 Hawks came into being in the summers of 2012 and 2013. They have done nothing interesting off the court (which, sadly, isn’t the same as saying they’ve had nothing interesting off the court done unto them) since. They balance an obviously above-average offense with an atypical above-average defense. The Hawks lack* a franchise player, and they lack direct, or indirect, franchise success. *NOTE: Does not apply to Al Horford during the 2015 Eastern Conference Semifinals. &nbsp;
 
What’s different about the Hawks this year? They’re healthier, mostly, and that enabled them to trust the processes they put in place. Feel that excitement. No? Try this... 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Atlanta Hawks are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 games. </blockquote>
So. Hmm. How? 
&nbsp; &nbsp; 
Short version: the Cavaliers are a poor defensive team that doesn’t match up well with the Hawks. 
&nbsp; &nbsp; 
Long version: Lacking the best player in the series (clearly), the Hawks will counter with the second- through sixth-best players. While David Blatt et al. face the unenviable task of identifying Cleveland’s best five-man unit for this series on the fly, Mike Budenholzer knows. More importantly, he has slooooowly demonstrated a willingness to deploy his five-best players for long minutes. &nbsp;
 
Cleveland has a choice: prop up their subpar point-of-attack defense with a heavy dose of the Thompson/Mozgov duo (added benefit on the other end of the floor: many offensive rebounds) to protect the paint, or play a single big in order to spread the floor on offense to punish the Hawks for helping each other as much on defense as they do on offense, and reap the whirlwind on the defensive end. &nbsp;
 
Neither option is ideal for Cleveland because neither option offers a satisfactory answer to the question, “Who does Kyrie Irving attempt to guard?” Does he defend the Atlanta point guard, leaving Cleveland vulnerable to the pick-and-rolls that bedeviled the last three times the teams met during the regular season? Does he attempt to hide on DeMarre Carroll, which doesn’t really seem a recipe for limiting Atlanta’s open three-point attempts or layups, and may create the only scenario wherein Mike Budenholzer encourages offensive rebounding? &nbsp;
 
The Cavs' issues cascade from there: JR Smith* or Shumpert forced to chase Korver for 38 minutes, multiple Cavs forced to cross-match in defensive transition, every potentially devastating instance of LeBron helping on D carrying a risk that could be exploited by one pass from the pass-happiest team in the league. *Smith has serious defensive scapegoat potential in this series, even if he does little wrong, if Korver starts making 47% of his 3PTAs again. &nbsp;
Beyond that, as long as Irving is limited by injury, the Cavaliers become easier for the Hawks to guard. Basically, the Hawks should defend LeBron James the way they defended John Wall in Games 5 and 6: 
<ul>
<li>Let him create for himself (jumpshots encouraged)</li>
<li>Do not help off shooters in the corners</li>
<li>Live with everyone but Kyrie Irving taking above-the-break threes</li>
<li>Do help late at the rim</li>
</ul>
Well, actually: LeBron James is much better than John Wall and the rest of what's left of the Cavs is arguably better than Wall's supporting cast. 
 
Well, actually redux: the latter difference is not as great as the defensive difference between the two teams. That’s where the Hawks have to punish Cleveland. &nbsp; 
 
However, Cleveland’s defensive limitations pose a risk to the Hawks in this series. Unlike their matchup against the Bizarro Playoff Wizards, the Hawks will have to turn the math of two- and three-point shots into their favor this series. Cleveland will likely be willing to give up pick-and-roll created layups rather than pick-and-roll created threes. The Hawks need to make the same trade when LeBron creates in isolation. &nbsp;
 
Furthermore, a willingness to let LeBron James attempt to single-handedly outscore the Hawks might, in one fell swoop, help mitigate Thabo Sefolosha’s absence, help keep DeMarre Carroll out of potentially devastating foul trouble, and limit the available energy for James to be an effective help defender.&nbsp; 
 
These Hawks will never be as good as they were from November 28th to January 30th this season* but that Hawks team is not their opponent. Nor is the Cavs team that didn't get above .500 for good until January 16th, or the Cavs team that went on its own 32-7 run (with 21 double-digit wins). What's left of the Hawks just has to be better than what's left of the Cavs for four of the next seven games.
 
*And nothing should diminish the unadulterated joy 33-2 brought so many right-thinking people. Not even whatever the Warriors might do to the Hawks in the NBA Finals.</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/2411830085526863381/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=2411830085526863381' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2411830085526863381'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/2411830085526863381'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2015/05/a-distant-voice-previews-2015-eastern.html' title='A Distant Voice Previews the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-8165095964147584880</id><published>2012-11-02T07:00:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2012-11-02T07:05:47.178-04:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="blog news"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="predictions"/><title type='text'>It's Been Pleasant</title><content type='html'>For the first time in five years, I'm not going to write about the Atlanta Hawks' first game of the regular season. For the first time in five years, I have no specific plans to write about the Atlanta Hawks at all. First of all, I appreciate the irony of stepping away from the keyboard at the precise moment the franchise made <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2008/05/season-review-joe-johnson.html">a decision I've been advocating since 2008</a>, just as the Hawks presume to be interesting and new in ways they haven't been over much of the last five seasons. I'm here because <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2007/10/new-direction.html">the Kansas City Kings left town when I was 8 years old</a>. As a result of that, I channeled my basketball interest into the college game. I have many great memories because of college basketball but, as a fan and writer, it turned out to be an aesthetic and intellectual dead end. Secondly, I deeply appreciate everyone who took the time to read anything I wrote about the Hawks. When I began writing about the Hawks, I didn't have a lot of things in my life that satisfied me. I didn't have anything that provided me a useful and interesting outlet. Writing about the Hawks, interacting with Hawks fans, and entering the genuinely pleasant community of the NBA blogosphere was (this is in retrospect, not something I consciously understood or appreciated at the time) profoundly important in my life. So I'm also here because Atlanta Hawks fans were passionate and generous with their time and attention to one who adopted their team. Whether you agreed or disagreed with me, whether you let me know of said agreement or disagreement, the semi-public platform I created was an important and valuable part of my life for five years. What comes next are the thank yous I probably should have expressed more often in the moment. Feel free to read the following, skim it for you name, or skip to the end, as applicable. I'm here because, after one season of blogging about the Hawks here, Matt Bernhardt invited me to <a href="http://www.peachtreehoops.com/">start a Hawks blog at SB Nation</a>. Without that encouragement and opportunity, there's a very good chance I would drifted in yet another different direction after that first season. I'm here because of the example Henry Abbott set at TrueHoop and the investment of his time, energy and talent in establishing the TrueHoop Network. I'm here because Kevin Arnovitz called me, told me that Henry Abbott was starting a network of NBA blogs under the TrueHoop banner, and asked if I'd like to write about the Hawks for them. The call surprised and flattered because of my admiration for Kevin, first through his writing at <a href="http://clipperblog.com/">ClipperBlog</a>, even moreso as I've gotten to know him over the years. I'm here because, on that first phone call, Kevin told me they were getting <a href="http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/">Kurt Helin</a> and <a href="http://knickerblogger.net/author/knickerblogger/">Mike Kurylo</a> for the TrueHoop Network. Both fine writers and, if it hadn't been for Kurt and Mike taking me up on my offer to contribute at <a href="http://courtsidetimes.net/">CourtsideTimes.net</a>, I might never had made the transition to writing about the NBA. I'm here because of the people who have made up the TrueHoop Network, because of the colleagues I saw once a year (if that), because of those I've never met in person, all of whom remain comfortably simpatico. There are tens of people I now know with whom I fondly remember sharing a drink, a conversation, and laughs and look forward to doing so again at some unspecified moment in the future. I'm not so foolish as to start a list and leave off one of the many, many friends I've made through the TrueHoop Network. Thank you all. I'm here because the NBA editors at ESPN.com are really super, generous with both their time and assignments. There is no doubt the opportunities I received there, from being a part of the TrueHoop Network, added legitimacy to the time I spent writing about basketball. Same goes for Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton inviting me to share a little corner of the Atlanta Hawks section of three editions of <a href="http://www.basketballprospectus.com/products/pbp2012/">the Basketball Prospectus annual</a>. The longtime and old-time Hawks bloggers deserve their own paragraph. A special thank you to <a href="http://www.twitter.com/hawksdawgs">Drew</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/hawkstr8talk">Larry</a> and <a href="http://www.twitter.com/cocoqt81">CoCo</a> and <a href="http://www.twitter.com/JasonWalkerSBN">Jason</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/Kris_Willis">Kris</a> for the conversations and arguments we've shared, as well as the unexpected delights the Hawks have provided us over the last five years amidst the somewhat more predictable* disappointments. Hawks blogs are as strong as they've ever been, in my opinion, and I look forward to getting to know better the <a href="http://twitter.com/bochurney">emerging</a> <a href="http://www.twitter.com/DChris_Hawks">writers</a>. I think this is the spot where I should say <a href="http://twitter.com/hoopinion">I'll still be on Twitter</a>, pitching woe and delight in unequal measure as the Hawks play. *The Hawks will win 47 games this season. Josh Smith will not be traded, but Devin Harris will. I'm here because <a href="http://repatl.blogspot.com/">Buddy Grizzard</a>, James Goeders, and Mark Phelps stepped up and recapped a bunch of games this season. Without their efforts, Hoopinion probably would not have survived the lockout. I'm here because a part of me -- not the best part, mind you -- draws energy from critics, <a href="http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/75671/why-buzz-bissinger-tweets">willful mis-readers</a>, and those troubled by my conscious rejection of certainty. One doesn't follow this path for five years because of the money. One follows this path due to some need for attention. I'm here because Alison Weldon has been tremendously patient regarding the amount of time I've spent watching, thinking, and writing about the Atlanta Hawks over the last five years. I'm going because I'm marrying Alison and because I found a real job. These two things are related, and wonderfully so. Miraculously, really, when it comes to the former. Both of those developments are an outgrowth of the work I've done here. Hoopinion has served as a way station between an old, uncertain self and one embracing adult life, for better and worse. Mostly better. It is bittersweet that, as my life has developed in these wonderful ways, it crowds out the time necessary to give this effort, which I also love, the attention it deserves. I don't think I'm going because I'm running low on valuable things to say about the Hawks, but <a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2012/05/clip-and-save-future-atlanta-hawks-news.html">I've been spectacularly, hilariously wrong before</a> and better to leave the party early than for your host to find you passed out on the bathroom floor. Or so I've heard. Regarding that, if anyone reading this is on the fence about starting out in this, or a similar arena, especially anyone young, my advice is to write. Make yourself do the work. The rewards will often seem ephemeral, at best. Then, looking back, they appear vast. And unending. If you bet it hit rim, proceed to the window and collect your money.
 
Thanks for reading, everybody. It's time for me to go.&nbsp; </content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/8165095964147584880/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=8165095964147584880' title='18 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8165095964147584880'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/8165095964147584880'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2012/11/its-been-pleasant.html' title='It's Been Pleasant'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>18</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8912756.post-1244752785487455969</id><published>2012-08-21T18:19:00.000-04:00</published><updated>2012-08-21T18:19:15.294-04:00</updated><title type='text'>ESPN.com: Doolittle: East win projections</title><content type='html'><div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
<a href="http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2011/12/pro-basketball-prospectus-2011-12-now.html">Friend of the blog</a> Bradford Doolittle published the <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8284888/nba-eastern-conference-win-projections">Basketball Prospectus win projections for the Eastern Conference yesterday</a> (Insider). Therein, the current state 2012-13 Atlanta Hawks projected to win the second-most games in the Eastern Conference. The (pleasant) surprise of the ordinal rankings make it possible to overlook that the projections have the Hawks winning games at a lesser rate than their 2011-12, fifth-best record in the East performance. This isn't an argument that the Hawks get better, it's that the East gets worse.</div>
<div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
 </div>
<div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
As for why the Hawks project to win* almost 49 games after trading away their two best wing players in salary dump deals, I think the explanation is fairly simple. Because Marvin Williams is such a low usage player and Joe Johnson is
not an especially efficient scorer (and surely projects to decline in
any forecasting system given he's on the age precipice for good but nor
great shooting guards), a collection of fairly efficient low usage
players (Morrow, Korver, maybe John Jenkins) and a couple of not especially efficient high usage players
(Devin Harris and Lou Williams) simulates to be similar to the Hawks having kept Williams
and Johnson. 
 
Nor should we overlook in the upheaval that a (healthy) primary post rotation of Josh Smith, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia with the fully competent Jordan Williams and Ivan Johnson in reserve, is a really nice post rotation.</div>
<div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
 
I don't think it will play out along the lines of this projection because of the uncertainty of
the practical changes in usage and roles for so many players. Plus, until Ferry
acquires a good perimeter defender, Smith and Horford will have their
work cut out to make this an average defensive team and team defense has
to have a similarly large margin for error in any forecast. And there's always the chance that Danny Ferry makes a conscious decision to win fewer games in 2012-13 in order to improve the franchise's program's chances of winning a championship thereafter.</div>
<div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
 </div>
<div style="font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;,sans-serif;">
In <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8273488/2012-nba-summer-forecast-east-standings">the accompanying Summer Forecast</a>, the ESPN.com NBA team collectively picks the Hawks to win 40 games and finish eighth in the East next season. Assuming the Hawks try to win for the entire season, I pegged them at 45 wins, envisioning them playing an offensively entertaining but defensively
abysmal style.
</div>
</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/feeds/1244752785487455969/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8912756&postID=1244752785487455969' title='2 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1244752785487455969'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8912756/posts/default/1244752785487455969'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2012/08/espncom-doolittle-east-win-projections.html' title='ESPN.com: Doolittle: East win projections'/><author><name>Bret LaGree</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/12000566742639583055</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>2</thr:total></entry></feed>

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