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<p>The only thing of interest to me is what it would take for State to get t ...
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:georss="http://www.georss.org/georss" xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#" > <channel> <title>StateFans Nation</title> <atom:link href="https://www.statefansnation.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/</link> <description>Your Independent Source On NC State Athletics</description> <lastBuildDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2024 12:37:43 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3</generator><site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">59138009</site> <item> <title>“Why Not Us?”</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2024/03/why-not-us/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2024/03/why-not-us/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alpha Wolf]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 17 Mar 2024 15:32:55 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[General]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.statefansnation.com/?p=135931</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>NC State’s men’s basketball team was left for dead a mere week ago after they stumbled to yet another regular season loss in yet another disappointing year led by, according to many, yet another poor coaching hire by a school with a nearly two-decade history of hiring coaches not capable of leading the Wolfpack into […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2024/03/why-not-us/">“Why Not Us?”</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NC State’s men’s basketball team was left for dead a mere week ago after they stumbled to yet another regular season loss in yet another disappointing year led by, according to many, yet another poor coaching hire by a school with a nearly two-decade history of hiring coaches not capable of leading the Wolfpack into the upper echelons of the ACC. </p> <p>No one would have taken a Wolfpack fan seriously if they told you last Saturday night that NC State would win its eleventh ACC championship over the next few days. They might have believed you more if you told them that lions would lay down with sheep, or that the sun would rise in the west the next morning. That’s how outlandish an NC State ACC Tournament win in 2024 seemed after losing badly to Pitt.</p> <p>Fortunately, the players believed that they had a good shot in their Last Chance Saloon. And look at what they did: they won five games in a row, one at a time and never rested on their laurels until they were covered in red and white confetti late Saturday evening. It took an incredible last-second shot, some good luck, and some great bounces, but most of all, it took an unwavering belief and a determination to never, ever give up, and to never stop working hard and doing what it took to win. </p> <p>Five wins in a row had never been done in an ACC Tournament and had only been done once ever by UConn in the Big East. “Historic” is one of the most overused words in sports today, but State’s feat was indeed historic. It’s the sort of thing fans of schools with poor conference records have in fever dreams, but once in a while, even a fever dream comes true. </p> <p>Many of NC State’s alumni and fans weren’t alive when State last won a conference title. That was in 1987, when State was in a similar position — they were a sixth seed in an eight-team league, and if they didn’t win that tournament, there would be no NCAA bid waiting for them. Under head coach Jim Valvano, the Wolfpack had to beat #14 Duke, win an overtime thriller against Wake Forest and then somehow get past #2 UNC to earn the right to cut down the nets. Fans, of course, were thrilled. Many of those fans are grandparents now.</p> <p>Just like every State fan was thrilled last night. The Wolfpack and UNC played a hard-fought championship game that went back and forth several times before State began to pull away and State fans started believing that they might pull off this title after all. UNC didn’t go away, and it wasn’t until the last minute that it was all but a certainty that State would finally put two generations of frustration to rest. That was a nervous minute; nonetheless, UNC has its own history of miracles, many of them at the expense of its self-proclaimed “not a rival,” NC State. </p> <p>Five wins in five days: Louisville and Syracuse were appetizers before State would play #11 Duke and take the win. Then an overtime thriller against Virginia and that game took a near miracle literal last-second shot to get to the extra five minutes that the Wolfpack would eventually dominate.</p> <p>Finally, arch-rival and Wolfpack Enemy #1, the #4 Tar Heels. State players didn’t blink. And it was them cutting down the nets at the end making travel plans for the NCAA tournament. </p> <p>“Why not us?” indeed. Enjoy it, players for the 2024 ACC Champions, the NC State Wolfpack. Now, on to the Big Dance and the chance to make a further mark on the record books.</p> <p>Just like 1987.</p> <p>Just like 1983.</p> <p></p> <p></p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2024/03/why-not-us/">“Why Not Us?”</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2024/03/why-not-us/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>5</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">135931</post-id> </item> <item> <title>It’s been 84 years…</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[BAM]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 05 Aug 2022 18:51:04 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Dave Doeren]]></category> <category><![CDATA[General]]></category> <category><![CDATA[NC State]]></category> <category><![CDATA[NCS Football]]></category> <category><![CDATA[NCSU Sports History]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.statefansnation.com/?p=134631</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Perhaps that is a slight exaggeration, but it sure does feel like it. (Hell, it has been 2362 days since the last football post on SFN!) I cannot remember a season with more hype and expectation, and it’s all deserved. Sports Illustrated has the Pack projected as the AP Preseason #11 team in the nation. […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/">It’s been 84 years…</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="284" height="459" data-attachment-id="134634" data-permalink="https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/image-8/" data-orig-file="https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image.png" data-orig-size="284,459" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image-186x300.png" data-large-file="https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image.png" src="https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image.png" alt="" class="wp-image-134634" srcset="https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image.png 284w, https://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/image-186x300.png 186w" sizes="(max-width: 284px) 100vw, 284px" /></figure> <p>Perhaps that is a slight exaggeration, but it sure does feel like it. (Hell, it has been 2362 days since the last football post on SFN!)</p> <p>I cannot remember a season with more hype and expectation, and it’s all deserved. </p> <p><a href="https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football-rankings/college-football-rankings-ap-top-25-preseason-poll-prediction">Sports Illustrated has the Pack projected</a> as the AP Preseason #11 team in the nation.</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p><strong>Where NC State is right now: </strong>Four points kept the Wolfpack from an undefeated mark in ACC play, a run that included a win over No. 9 Clemson and with losses at Miami and at Wake. Ten starters on defense that ranked No. 3 in the ACC last fall come back for a reunion in 2022, as does quarterback Devin Leary, a 3,400-yard passer in 2021 with 35 touchdowns against three picks.</p><p>There’s a slip-up somewhere on this schedule with road dates against Clemson and then Louisville and UNC to end the season, plus a home tilt with Wake. FPI projects four losses here, which might seem harsh when looking at this roster. NC State could start 4-0 going into Clemson, and there’s no Notre Dame this year.</p><cite><a href="https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football-rankings/college-football-rankings-ap-top-25-preseason-poll-prediction">Sports Illustrated</a></cite></blockquote> <p></p> <p>To give context, the Wolfpack have been in the Preseason top 25 a total of three times since I was born at Rex Hospital back in 1976. And in each of those cases, we ended the season unranked. Talk about a turd burger!</p> <p><strong>SINCE 1993..</strong></p> <p>Only once since 1993 have we had such preseason accolades. 2003. We were gifted the 16 spot, only to start the season 1-1 and fall out of the rankings, never to climb back in that season. </p> <p>Only once since 1993 have we spent double digit weeks ranked. Until last year. Last season we spent a respectable 10 weeks with a number beside our beloved university.</p> <p>Yes folks, this is unusual ground we are stepping onto this year. The kind we don’t see every decade even. (State spent a total of 16 weeks ranked in all of the 2010s combined!)</p> <p><strong>Savor the excitement</strong></p> <p>You know, we can spend our time talking about NC State SH!T and how many breaks we needed to beat UNX last season, but you know what? We DID beat the tarholes! And a series of unfortunate injuries derailed what coulda shoulda woulda been a 12-1 season if not for those and UCLA cowering away from a fight in their backyard.</p> <p>I implore you to be excited, and expectant, and rowdy, and celebratory, and just have as much fun as you can this season cheering on the Pack. We don’t know when this perfect storm will happen again. Let’s choose to enjoy the ride and see where it takes us. </p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/">It’s been 84 years…</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2022/08/its-been-84-years/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>9</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">134631</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Sleep Peacefully Tonight</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/05/sleep-peacefully-tonight/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/05/sleep-peacefully-tonight/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 28 May 2018 14:21:21 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[General]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=133748</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>No; it’s not National BBQ Day.   It seems to me that too many people have no idea what Memorial Day stands for or why it is important. It’s always been my hope that by sharing details of a specific event that we would all gain a greater appreciation of what Lincoln meant when he […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/05/sleep-peacefully-tonight/">Sleep Peacefully Tonight</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong><em>No; it’s not National BBQ Day.<br /></em></strong></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It seems to me that too many people have no idea what Memorial Day stands for or why it is important. It’s always been my hope that by sharing details of a specific event that we would all gain a greater appreciation of what Lincoln meant when he said that “they gave the last full measure of devotion”. To that end, here is a list of my previous Memorial Day entries.<br /></span></p><p><a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2015/05/memorial-day/"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Memorial Day</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2010/05/on-eternal-patrol/"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">On Eternal Patrol</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2009/05/they-were-expendable/"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They Were Expendable</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2007/05/no-greater-love/"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">No Greater Love</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2006/05/some-gave-all/"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Some Gave All</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">This year’s entry is based on a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/john-kellys-speech-truck-bomb-2017-4">great article from Business Insider</a> about a speech given by then-Lt General John Kelly, four days after he lost his own son.<br /></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Nine years ago, two US Marines from very different walks of life met for the first time when they were put on guard duty at 7:30 in the morning…<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #212529;">Just minutes later, the pair of Marines guarding a gate in Ramadi, Iraq, were </span>staring down a large blue truck packed<span style="color: #212529;"> with 2,000 pounds of explosives. They could have sought cover, like an Iraqi policeman on the scene who ran away and lived.<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Instead, Lance Cpl. Jordan Haerter and Cpl. Jonathan Yale stood their ground…<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Because there were no US witnesses of the event, General Kelly went to Ramadi to interview the Iraqi policeman that did see the incident to increase the odds of posthumous medals being awarded. One of the Iraqi policemen told him:<br /></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">“Sir, in the name of God no sane man would have stood there and done what they did.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">“No sane man.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">“They saved us all.”<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Here is General Kelly’s summary of the incident based on his interviews and a review of security camera footage:<br /></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">You can watch the last six seconds of their young lives. Putting myself in their heads I supposed it took about a second for the two Marines to separately come to the same conclusion about what was going on once the truck came into their view at the far end of the alley. Exactly no time to talk it over, or call the sergeant to ask what they should do. Only enough time to take half an instant and think about what the sergeant told them to do only a few minutes before: ” … let no unauthorized personnel or vehicles pass.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">The two Marines had about five seconds left to live. It took maybe another two seconds for them to present their weapons, take aim, and open up. By this time the truck was half-way through the barriers and gaining speed the whole time. Here, the recording shows a number of Iraqi police, some of whom had fired their AKs, now scattering like the normal and rational men they were—some running right past the Marines. They had three seconds left to live.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">For about two seconds more, the recording shows the Marines’ weapons firing non-stop…the truck’s windshield exploding into shards of glass as their rounds take it apart and tore in to the body of the son-of-a-bitch who is trying to get past them to kill their brothers—American and Iraqi—bedded down in the barracks totally unaware of the fact that their lives at that moment depended entirely on two Marines standing their ground. If they had been aware, they would have known they were safe … because two Marines stood between them and a crazed suicide bomber.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">The recording shows the truck careening to a stop immediately in front of the two Marines. <strong>In all of the instantaneous violence Yale and Haerter never hesitated. By all reports and by the recording, they never stepped back. They never even started to step aside. They never even shifted their weight. With their feet spread shoulder width apart, they leaned into the danger, firing as fast as they could work their weapons</strong>. They had only one second left to live.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">The truck explodes. The camera goes blank. Two young men go to their God.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Six seconds.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #212529; font-size: 12pt;">Not enough time to think about their families, their country, their flag, or about their lives or their deaths, but more than enough time for two very brave young men to do their duty … into eternity. <strong>That is the kind of people who are on watch all over the world tonight—for you</strong>.<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Because of two brave Marines standing watch, 50 fellow Marines and 100 Iraqi policemen lived to fight another day. This incident reminded me of a line frequently attributed to George Orwell:<br /></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>People sleep peacefully in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.<br /></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p></blockquote><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/052818_1415_SleepPeacef1.png" alt="" /></p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/05/sleep-peacefully-tonight/">Sleep Peacefully Tonight</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/05/sleep-peacefully-tonight/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>35</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">133748</post-id> </item> <item> <title>Last Look at the Bubble</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/last-look-at-the-bubble-4/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/last-look-at-the-bubble-4/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2018 22:03:51 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[NCS Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=132165</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>It’s hard to believe that the regular season is already over. It’s been a great ride so far and I never expected to be able to say that considering where State basketball was just one year ago. So let’s get to it and start with reviewing the last week of the regular season.   RPI […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/last-look-at-the-bubble-4/">Last Look at the Bubble</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s hard to believe that the regular season is already over. It’s been a great ride so far and I never expected to be able to say that considering where State basketball was just one year ago. So let’s get to it and start with reviewing the last week of the regular season.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI TREND GRAPHS<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt1.png" alt="" /></p><p>UVA had a thrilling win over L’ville with a last second three to get the victory. They followed that game up by holding off ND down the stretch for a 2-0 week and 17-1 conference record for the year.</p><p>Duke lost in Blacksburg (looking ahead?) and then avenged the loss in Chapel Hill to secure the second seed in the ACCT.</p><p>UNC had an 0-2 week to drop into a four-way tie for third place.</p><p>Clemson went 1-1 with a win over FSU and then a loss at Syracuse.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt2.png" alt="" /></p><p>Miami had a great week with a win in Chapel Hill and then a hard fought win over VT at home. They ended the regular season with a four-game winning streak and proved that they don’t belong with the other questionable teams on this graph.</p><p>FSU lost at Clemson then won over BC at home to squeak in with a 9-9 conference record.</p><p>L’ville picked a bad time to go 0-2 and we’ll dissect them a little later.</p><p>SYR ended the season with a home victory over Clemson to revive their fading NCAAT hopes. I’ll have more to say about the Orange during our bubble discussion.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt3.png" alt="" /></p><p>VT beat Duke mid-week to hopefully secure an NCAAT bid. They ended the regular season with a hard fought loss at Miami. I gave up on VT several times this season and I think that they have proven me wrong.</p><p>I’m not sure what I would say if State had lost to L’ville on Saturday. But thankfully you won’t have to watch me back-peddle and say that 10-8 might not be good enough. I’m not ready to see State lose again, but at least I won’t worry about a NCAAT bid if they bow out of the ACCT too soon. If I’m right about State, then they’ll be the first team to move from a triple-digit RPI ranking at the start of the conference schedule to earn a NCAAT bid.</p><p>ND got Bonzie Colson back a full week before the ACCT. Now we have to figure out how much ND has to do in the ACCT to secure a NCAAT bid.</p><p>Let’s start with what “everyone else is saying” to go along with a few more tables before we start drilling down into specifics.</p><p> </p><p><strong>THE DANCE CARD<br /></strong></p><p>Through Sunday’s games</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt4.png" alt="" /></p><p> </p><p><strong>BRACKET MATRIX<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt5.png" alt="" /></p><p> </p><p><strong>FINAL ACC STANDINGS</strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt6.png" alt="" /></p><p>IIRC, this is State’s best regular season finish since 2004 when State finished second (and then lost in the first round of the ACCT to eventual champion Maryland).</p><p> </p><p><strong>ACCT BRACKET</strong></p><p>From Wikipedia</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt7.png" alt="" /></p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI SUMMARY TABLE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_2203_LastLookatt8.png" alt="" /></p><p>I ignored my fast and dirty definition of IN vs Bubble this week.</p><p>The first five teams are well clear of any bubble discussions. I’ve not spent any great amount of time studying seeding tendencies simply because it hasn’t been important to State to generate any interest for me. But I do know that ACCT performance has a much bigger effect on Bubble discussions than seeding ones.</p><p>FSU has a SOS that is among the worst in the nation, but they have enough quality wins to overcome that big negative. Their Top 25 and Top 50 wins far exceeds the minimums that we’ve discussed many times since the days of the Herbble.</p><p>Someone has got to work with Buzz to straighten out VT’s OOC schedule because it is even worse than FSU’s. Their resume is not as good as FSU’s, but four Top 25 wins has to be good enough.</p><p>State is 7-6 against teams in the Top 50. For a point of reference, the best that Sendek ever managed was 0.500…and was only that good once in 10 years. State has everything that we look for to clear the bubble with the exception of a decent OOC schedule. That will end up hurting State’s seeding, but that’s a far better problem than any I expected to discuss this year.</p><p>I’m surprised that Syracuse is looking that good on the Dance Card algorithm. <a href="http://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/">With their easy ACC schedule</a>, an 8-10 record is just not going to get it done. Ignore all of the SOS calculations and just look at who they played (which mean that you have to click the link above). They played a total of eight games against the seven teams in the ACC that won double-digit conference games…and five of those games were at home. You really can’t get much easier than that.</p><p>SYR’s conference record is the only real stain on their resume. So a win over UNC on Wednesday should be enough.</p><p>L’ville’s big problem is their paucity of quality wins. They might have enough, but I wouldn’t bet on it. If I’m right, that could be a real problem because they don’t have a favorable ACCT bracket for generating more wins….FSU in the 8/9 game and then UVa. Clearly a win over UVA would be enough and whether a win over FSU would be enough is just too close to call. I don’t see them making the NCAAT if they lose on Wed and enter Selection Sunday with three consecutive losses.</p><p>ND’s injuries were a tough deal. But you can’t substitute “might have won” for “did win” and move them ahead of some other team that earned a bid. ND drew a tough bracket, because I don’t think that a win over VT on Wednesday will be enough. I’m betting that they need a win over Duke on Thursday.</p><p>I avoided discussing the ACC team’s wins by the new quadrant system because I just don’t know how to compare Q1 and Q2 wins. So I just used the same philosophy that has been pretty decent over the last decade. If I’m horribly wrong, then we’ll all have to figure out a whole new system.</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/last-look-at-the-bubble-4/">Last Look at the Bubble</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/last-look-at-the-bubble-4/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>22</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">132165</post-id> </item> <item> <title>ACC Strength of Schedule</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/#respond</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2018 16:32:25 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=132128</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Ever since the ACC got too large to play a round-robin conference schedule, it was obvious to me that some teams would play a harder conference schedule while others would play easier ones. So I’ve made an effort to analyze the various conference schedules and pick out those teams with easy or hard schedules to […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/">ACC Strength of Schedule</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ever since the ACC got too large to play a round-robin conference schedule, it was obvious to me that some teams would play a harder conference schedule while others would play easier ones. So I’ve made an effort to analyze the various conference schedules and pick out those teams with easy or hard schedules to see how the variations in schedule strength impacted the conference standings and NCAAT bids.</p><p>I’m doing this breakdown before my “Final Look at the Bubble” (ie the last weekly summary of ACC basketball) for reasons that will be obvious by the time you get to the end of this post.</p><p> </p><p><strong>TECHNIQUE</strong></p><p>My current technique of analyzing schedule strength looks at the four opponents that each team plays home/away and totaling their opponent’s conference wins and then sorting the results. If that sentence seems as clumsy to you as it does to me, here are two examples to illustrate:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS1.png" alt="" /></p><p>NOTE: VT set the record for the highest number of opponent wins over the 5 years that I’ve been doing this. Last year’s Pitt team was the previous record holder with a total of 47 opponent wins.</p><p><strong>RESULTS</strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS2.png" alt="" /></p><p>You may have noticed that I like graphs and here’s another one:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS3.png" alt="" /></p><p>I like the graph because it gives me a feel for how much the conference schedules are varying from one position to the next. For instance, saying that VT had a harder schedule than UNC or saying that UNC had the second toughest conference schedule would both be completely accurate. But neither statement would illustrate how much harder VT’s schedule was.</p><p>SIDE NOTE: This is the first year that State found itself in the bottom third in ACC schedule strength.</p><p>I like to compare the numerical results to the master schedule to make sure the results make sense. So here’s the master ACC schedule:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS4.png" alt="" /></p><p><em>To see where a game was played read across the rows. For instance, UNC played UVa in C’ville.</em></p><p>The columns are sorted by ACC wins and the rows are sorted from hardest to easiest conference schedule. I added some blank columns to arbitrarily break up the conference to help with the visual comparisons.</p><p>I’m mostly happy with the ranking, but not completely. I’ve always been afraid that using total wins might skew the rankings when one team runs away with the conference or goes winless (or nearly so). This year we have both and I think that my fear was confirmed.</p><p>For instance, compare SYR with Duke. At the weak end, both teams played WF and Pitt so there is no difference there. At the strong end, SYR played UVa and BC twice while Duke played UNC and VT. You would have to say that the odds of going 4-0 against UVa/BC would be worse than going 4-0 against UNC/VT. But with BC as one of the opponents, the odds of going 0-4 would have to be much less than playing UNC/VT. So it’s hard for me to say which schedule is truly harder.</p><p>Now compare Miami to SYR/Duke. If I was sorting the schedules qualitatively, I would give Miami the weakest schedule award because they didn’t have to play home/away with any of the teams that won 11 or more ACC games. But this is where the graph places this discussion in the proper context….all three teams played substantially weaker schedules than anyone else. In the end, we want to see which teams had the conference records inflated/degraded based on who they had to play….and my simple system accomplishes that goal.</p><p> </p><p><strong>HISTORICAL CONTEXT<br /></strong></p><p>This is the fifth season with 15 teams in the ACC, so it’s only natural to be curious about how this season compares to the past. I’m going to cut the historical discussion back this year to move onto more important things. I’m not absolutely sure that “average” is the best way to summarize the historical SOS results, but I can’t think of a better way. So here’s what we’ve seen over the last five years.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS5.png" alt="" /></p><p>With a 15 team league, a ranking of “8” places you perfectly in the middle of the conference. I’ve highlighted the teams that have averaged within one spot of the middle to illustrate that ACC SOS is not evening out over time.</p><p>Basically, everything thing that I written so far has been to say that the defined rivals set up by the conference skews the SOS, favoring certain teams at the expense of others. For instance, when Skip Prosser was at WF, State’s SOS was consistently near the top. With WF falling off since Prosser’s untimely death, State has moved towards the middle.</p><p>Likewise, SYR has BC and Pitt as defined rivals. BC has not been competitive since Al Skinner was fired. Pitt has not been that strong since joining the ACC and has fallen to the bottom since Jamie Dixon left.</p><p>I can think of two ways to help even out the conference schedule (other than kicking some teams out and going back to a round-robin conference schedule). The most logical solution would be to eliminate defined rivals and completely randomize the schedule rotation. That would obviously eliminate one of the two Duke/UNC games most years….but there is such a thing as a non-conference schedule that each team has complete control of. So while this COULD be done, I wouldn’t recommend holding your breath waiting for it to happen.</p><p>While the odds of eliminating the defined rivals are immeasurably small, the other way to even out the schedules is to increase the number of conference games. The more teams that you play home/away, the more teams will cluster around “average”. There were news articles reporting that the ACC was going to increase the conference schedule to 20 games to support the ACC Network. But I haven’t seen any mention of a schedule change recently. <a href="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/030917_0435_ACCStrength9.png">I worked out what a 22 game schedule could look like last year</a> and that would be my solution as soon as I’m appointed as ACC Czar.</p><p> </p><p><strong>SO WHAT?<br /></strong></p><p>While researching the new quadrant system that will be used by the NCAAT Selection Committee, I decided that this will probably be the last season that I calculate the ACC SOS. That decision was made when I found this little nugget on the <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections">NCAA web page</a> that lists the things that the Selection Committee considers:</p><blockquote><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 12pt;">The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing…Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process are…<br /></span></p><p>…Imbalanced conference schedules and results…</p></blockquote><p>Their take on conference SOS is found in the top right corner of the team sheet used to summarize the game results of each team. The following snip was taken from State’s page to illustrate how the info is presented to the committee.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS6.png" alt="" /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p> </p><p>That little nugget of information obviously requires additional tables and graphs to explore this new (to me) data.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS7.png" alt="" /></p><p>Using the fractional measure of SOS (seen in the snip above) and the ranking, we get this graphical representation:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS8.png" alt="" /></p><p>I don’t know exactly how the Selection Committee is going to use the conference SOS in selecting at-large bids. But I’m concerned that the committee is going to miss the value of this graphical representation in favor of a mental image of a straight line when they see that someone ranks high or low in the conference. Clearly, there are teams that are bunched together in the middle along with a few that are considerably harder or easier than the rest of the conference.</p><p> </p><p><strong>FEW MORE COMPARISONS<br /></strong></p><p>So I needed to know how the ranking criteria that I pulled out of thin air compared to one that the NCAA is going to use. And while I was at it, I might as well include the ESPN calcs that we’ve watched all season:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS9.png" alt="" /></p><p>I was happy to see that my quick and dirty ranking got the whole conference within two spots of what the NCAA is going to use. Since ESPN isn’t duplicating the NCAA’s RPI calculation, it pretty much means that they are not going to match anything else.</p><p>ESPN’s calcs are not far off, but I generally strive for accuracy. But in ESPN’s case, they are the only on-line source that I’ve found that will let me quickly get an RPI summary table together for the weekly update posts. In this case, convenience and speed win out over accuracy.</p><p>I sort of assumed/hoped that the NCAA would rank conference SOS based only on the conference results. But those hopes were dashed when I looked at two teams in the Big 12, which still plays a complete round-robin schedule:</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 215px;" /><col style="width: 204px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border: solid 0.5pt;"><p style="text-align: center;">Kansas</p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: solid 0.5pt; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"><p style="text-align: center;">Oklahoma</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: none; border-left: solid 0.5pt; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS10.png" alt="" /></p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/030518_1645_ACCSOS11.png" alt="" /></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p>So basically we know that the Selection Committee is going to look at conference SOS, but we don’t know exactly how they calculated the SOS nor do we know exactly how/when they are going to use it. All of this just complicates what is a difficult process to unravel in the first place. But as I like to say….If it were easy, then anyone could do it.</p><p> </p><p><strong>WRAP UP<br /></strong></p><p>If you’ve been around here for our bubble discussions over the years, it has become apparent that teams with losing conference records need to make up ground in the ACCT if they want an NCAAT bid. But if I were going to use the conference SOS data, I would be more receptive to cutting VT some slack with an 8-10 conference record (and nothing of note in the ACC tournament) than I would with Syracuse…which just by coincidence is the question we need to resolve in the Last Look at the Bubble. Exactly what does ND and SYR need in the ACC tournament to secure an at-large bid with a regular season 8-10 record?</p><p>Think about that question and I’ll try to get the last weekly summary up tonight. Also link any pertinent articles that you run across as the bubble gets talked about a lot over the next week.</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/">ACC Strength of Schedule</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/03/acc-strength-of-schedule-3/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>0</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">132128</post-id> </item> <item> <title>One More Week</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/one-more-week-3/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/one-more-week-3/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2018 02:37:42 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=131598</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Corey Alexander does an “OK” job on the ACC broadcasts, but he was really pissing me off with the constant references to State’s 2006 season. I’m sure he was just trying to illustrate what a good job that KK has done in his first year in Raleigh. But a comparison to Herb’s team that pretty […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/one-more-week-3/">One More Week</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Corey Alexander does an “OK” job on the ACC broadcasts, but he was really pissing me off with the constant references to State’s 2006 season. I’m sure he was just trying to illustrate what a good job that KK has done in his first year in Raleigh. But a comparison to Herb’s team that pretty much tanked after January brought back unpleasant memories…and a connection that I don’t want made to this team.</p><p>I’m undoubtedly making too much about something that was intended to be a compliment for this State team, because that was the only thing remotely unpleasant about Sunday night’s game.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI TREND GRAPHS</strong></p><p>When a graph is nearly incomprehensible rather than illuminating, it’s time (or past time) to do something different. So since the ACC has broken itself into four groups, it’s seems natural to use three graphs to summarize most of the conference. The bottom group would be titled “Abandon hope all ye who enter here” and doesn’t warrant a graph.</p><p>But before we get to the trend graphs, let’s review the basis for the RPI ranges I use for “IN”, “Bubble”, and “OUT”. Back during the days of the Herbble, I correlated at-large bids with final RPI rankings to see what, if anything, there was to see. It turns out for college basketball as a whole, there is too much data scatter to use just the RPI ranking. But when we look at only the power conferences, we get #1-#40 and #41-#75 as a quick and dirty definitions for “IN” and “Bubble”.</p><p>The “Bubble” is further broken down into “Some Chance” and “Slim Chance” based on parsing the at-large bids extended to teams within the larger Bubble zone. After collecting data for a number of years, the “Slim Chance” range of 56-75 was based on that face that there were a number of years where none or only one bid was extended to a team ranked #55+.</p><p>But don’t forget the importance of keeping cause/effect straight. These ranges don’t necessarily represent true cause/effect, but they are good enough to use as a starting point for projecting NCAAT bids. Don’t forget that just last year the record for most total losses to receive an at-large bid was broken. Likewise, there is always the chance that the Selection Committee will force us to further refine the ranges that have served pretty well for over a decade.</p><p>Since I’m breaking down the trend graphs based on the teams, rather than just current RPI Ranking, take a second to look at the Y-axis to see what RPI range the graphs are illustrating</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek1.png" alt="" /></p><p>UVa went 2-0 against two of the worst teams in the conference.</p><p>Duke also went 2-0, but against L’ville and SYR.</p><p>UNC beat SYR mid-week and had the weekend off.</p><p>GT coming to Clemson was the perfect scenario to break Clemson’s three-game losing streak. At halftime, it looked like GT might extend the Tiggers losing streak, but they couldn’t hold on. Unsurprisingly, beating GT at home didn’t help Clemson’s RPI ranking.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek2.png" alt="" /></p><p>This is the new graph tracking the four teams that have conspired to make things interesting…while simultaneously destroying the usability of my standard graphs.</p><p>Miami had a 2-0 week while at the same time making their game against BC interesting. This week was a welcome relief for ‘Canes fans since it broke a three-game losing streak.</p><p>The road win to complete the sweep of the Hokies gave the Cards a nice bump and their best ranking in three weeks.</p><p>SYR going 0-2 against UNC and Duke isn’t surprising, but the Orange needed something much better than “expected”.</p><p>With a mid-week break, FSU had a week to prepare for State…and they weren’t.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek3.png" alt="" /></p><p>VT had a nice mid-week win over Clemson, but the home loss to L’ville resulted in a net loss for the week.</p><p>As we heard several times on the Sunday night broadcast, State is currently on a four-game winning streak and reached a new high-water mark on the trend graph for this season. (Look at how the home loss to L’ville affect VT. State doesn’t want to see that same effect.)</p><p>ND had a 1-1 week, but needed a lot more.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI SUMMARY TABLE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek4.png" alt="" /></p><p>Miami is probably right on the edge of doing the minimum required to get in. But no one wants to go into Selection Sunday on a three-game losing streak. They finish @UNC and then host VT to finish the regular season.</p><p>Strangely enough, L’ville’s second win over VT hurt their resume by leaving them with only one Top 50 win…@FSU. I saw on one bracket (maybe CBS), that they had moved L’ville to the First Four. Right now, I wouldn’t bet money that they have done enough. They finish with UVa at home and then travel to Raleigh for Saturday’s game.</p><p>SYR is in bad shape. They need two wins badly…either two this week (@ BC and then Clemson) or one this week and then one on Thursday in the ACCT.</p><p>FSU has six Top 50 wins and even though two of those are positioned precariously (UF@ #50 and SYR@ #45), they are probably OK as long as they win one this week to finish at .500 in conference. Their week sees them travel to Clemson and then host BC on Saturday.</p><p>As we’ve talked for weeks, I thought that State needed a minimum of 10-8 to feel comfortable. They’ve got the 10 wins, but I don’t want to enter Selection Sunday on a three-game losing streak.</p><p>I’ve been watching the VT game with Duke as I finish off this update. I agree with the announcers, VT just got another signature win to go along with victories against Clemson and UVA and just like State, they should have done enough to secure a bid. They finish the season at Miami.</p><p>Best case, ND is in the same position as SYR. They host Pitt mid-week and then travel to Hoo’ville on Saturday.</p><p> </p><p><strong>MISCELLANEOUS BRACKETOLOGY<br /></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.omaha.com/sports/blogs/mad-chatter-bruce-rasmussen-has-a-thoughtful-message-for-husker/article_e36edfda-1332-11e8-89e6-c341d32c13f9.html">Anyone that is interested in bracketology absolutely needs to read this article</a>. Here are a few quotes from the AD at Creighton and this year’s NCAAT Selection Committee chairman that leapt out at me:</p><blockquote><p>…the non-conference SOS has its flaws. It only takes into account the won-lost records of who you played, not where you played the game, not the outcome of the game, and most importantly, not the strength of the team you played… there are many other reasons why non-conference SOS is an invalid number…</p></blockquote><p>I’ve seen State fans take this paragraph completely out of context to conclude that State’s embarrassing OOC schedule won’t hurt State. Those State fans conveniently ignore this part:</p><blockquote><p>While the committee does examine in detail the non-conference opponents of a team under consideration, they also look at the “intent” in scheduling….</p></blockquote><p>So riddle me this….what intent do you see with the scheduling of these icons of college basketball?</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek5.png" alt="" /></p><p>They look to me like sure wins were scheduled. Does anyone see anything else?</p><p>In any event , here are some illuminating comments about the new quadrants being used by the Selection Committee:</p><blockquote><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 12pt;">The quadrant system is simply a sorting mechanism. The ranges in the quadrants were selected because of historical data that shows that a road win against a team with an RPI of 75 is comparable to a home win against a team with an RPI of 30, for instance…<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 12pt;">The committee will look at each game in quadrant 1 on its own merits, and a road win against a team with a high RPI is obviously looked at much more favorably than a road win against a team with a (worse) RPI.<br /></span></p></blockquote><p>I take that to mean that there won’t be huge changes to the selection process this year. That may just be wishful thinking, so we’ll see what we see. After reading the entire article, I tend to agree with the author’s closing thoughts:</p><blockquote><p>But I’ll say this: If the entire committee knows the landscape as well as Creighton’s athletic director, college basketball fans can sleep soundly on Selection Sunday Eve.</p></blockquote><p> </p><p><strong>DANCE CARD</strong></p><p>About the only good thing about putting this entry up so late is that I can add the Dance Card calcs to our other discussions.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek6.png" alt="" /></p><p>I found it interesting/surprising that State came out as the first team after the four teams fighting for a high tournament seed. I guess it’s theoretically possible for the ACC to get 10 teams in, but it seems really unlikely to me.</p><p> </p><p><strong>ACC STANDINGS<br /></strong></p><p>These standings were after the State/FSU game and do not include VT’s win over Duke.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek7.png" alt="" /></p><p>The only thing of interest to me is what it would take for State to get their first two-round bye. You all can do the math as well as I can…well, most of you anyway. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f642.png" alt="🙂" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p><p>The odds of more than one team finishing at 11-7 are extremely high. So I’m just going to pull for State and see what transpires elsewhere.</p><p> </p><p><strong>FINAL GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek8.png" alt="" /></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/022718_0237_OneMoreWeek9.png" alt="" /></p><p>Mercifully, State had the last Saturday off last year. This year that same mercy was extended to Pitt.</p><p>Good Lord willing, I’ll put up my “Last Look at the Bubble” next Monday to see who needs what out of the ACCT.</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/one-more-week-3/">One More Week</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/one-more-week-3/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>23</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">131598</post-id> </item> <item> <title>ACC Basketball Update (2/19)</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-219/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-219/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 18 Feb 2018 19:26:26 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=131026</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Photo by Dennis Nett at Syracuse.com.   This past weekend was awfully good for the visitors…and since State was one of the road winners, I’m OK with that. But there’s a lot to cover so let’s get started.   RPI TREND GRAPHS I’m staying with the expanded axis on the “IN” graph again this week […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-219/">ACC Basketball Update (2/19)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Photo by Dennis Nett at Syracuse.com.<br /></em></p><p> </p><p>This past weekend was awfully good for the visitors…and since State was one of the road winners, I’m OK with that. But there’s a lot to cover so let’s get started.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI TREND GRAPHS<br /></strong></p><p>I’m staying with the expanded axis on the “IN” graph again this week to give a better view of those teams that are jumping back and forth between the two graphs.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba1.png" alt="" /></p><p>UVa won mid-week at Miami and then had the weekend off to hold steady at the #1 ranking.</p><p>Clemson’s bad week started at FSU when they blew a huge half-time lead and ended up losing in OT. They followed that disaster up with a home loss to Duke.</p><p>Duke went 2-0 with wins against VT at home and then at Clemson on Sunday.</p><p>Since UNC’s three-game losing streak, they’ve won five in a row to move to a Top 5 ranking.</p><p>After being fairly stable for most of conference play, everyone else in the “IN” graph has started falling either towards or into the Bubble Zone.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">Miami peaked after beating L’ville at home on Jan 24. Since then, they’ve not done much worth talking about other than the road win against VT.State’s loss to UM has now fallen into Q2 since the Canes have fallen out of the Top 30.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba2.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p>FSU had the big comeback win over Clemson to jump up nicely and then beat Pitt at home to fall back some.</p><p>I was a little surprised that SYR’s road win at BC more than balanced the home loss to State. As we’ll get to in a few minutes, I think that SYR’s post-season destination is still up for discussion (but I appear to be in a small minority).</p><p>L’ville peaked nearly a month ago and since then have gone 3-5, with wins coming only against the three worst teams in the conference. For this past week, they were off mid-week (after playing 4 games in 8 days) and then lost to UNC over the weekend.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba3.png" alt="" /></p><p>VT had a down then up week with a loss in Durham and then a win in Atlanta.</p><p>State had a great week with a win at SYR and then in Winston. They’re not locked in yet, but this past week was a big step in the right direction.</p><p>Surprisingly, ND’s jump with a win at BC was as large as State got with the win at SYR. They look good on the graph, but they have a hole to dig out of with their conference record.</p><p>BC dropped out-of-sight low with their home loss to ND.</p><p> </p><p><strong>MISCELLANEOUS BRACKETOLOGY</strong></p><p>Sunday’s ACC games won’t have any effect on the ACC Bubble discussion, so I’m going to get this section finished based on what’s available on Sunday.</p><p>From bracketmatrix.com, here’s what people are thinking about the ACC:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba4.png" alt="" /></p><p>The Dance Card released their results after the mid-week games:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba5.png" alt="" /><strong><br /></strong></p><p>After the UNC loss, State was the last team in. So the road win at SYR gave State a nice boost in both the RPI and the Dance Card. The Dance Card should be updated sometime today for the weekend games, but shouldn’t have much impact on the ACC. Hopefully, they will start their daily updates soon…though twice a week is really good enough until the conference tournaments start.</p><p>I found it interesting that the bracketeers and the Dance Card picked the same nine ACC teams to make the NCAAT.</p><p>With the new quadrant system, everyone is really just guessing at how the Selection Committee will use it. If Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) is right, then we’re going to have some interesting discussions on Selection Sunday. For instance, he has Alabama on the Bubble with the following resume:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba6.png" alt="" /></p><p>To the best of my memory, no power conference team has ever been left out of the NCAAT with a resume this good. (Note that I’m not making fun of Palm since he has State as a 10 seed.) In the quadrant layout, they’re 6-5 in Q1 (with two road wins) and 4-4 in Q2. I can understand the argument that they’re not a lock since they’re only a little over .500 in conference, but completely out?</p><p>We really need some articles from this year’s mock selection to get some more insight. Oh well, back to the ACC:</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI SUMMARY TABLE:<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba7.png" alt="" /><strong><br /></strong></p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">We’ve already seen Miami’s recent slide. Here’s what they have left to try and right the ship.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba8.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Glancing at the Summary Table, Miami doesn’t have an impressive resume. It’s hard to say where they would rank if they finished at 2-2 to end up at .500 for the regular season. But it would help State if they would get their stuff together and move back into the Top 30.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">SYR has essentially the same resume as Miami, but virtually no one has them in the NCAAT field. <shrugs></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba9.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>If SYR goes 2-2, then their resume will be fine. But as the saying goes, that’s a mighty big IF. Teamrankings.com has them at less than 50% chance of winning any of their remaining games.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">FSU looks to be in good shape with a decent RPI and 8-7 record in conference. 1-2 would probably move them to the good end of the bubble…but they would probably still be OK.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba10.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">I gave up on VT after they lost to L’ville, Miami, and FSU at home. But they’re still hanging around. Their resume is frighteningly similar to State’s, so I’ll stick with the same prediction….they need 2-2 to finish up the regular season.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba11.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>They don’t have any easy games left, but no one left is unbeatable and they do have 3 games at home. Clearly the ball is in Buzz’s hands, so we’ll see what he does with it.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">State’s great performance last week put them in a really good position. I’ll let the 9-9 dead horse rest in peace this week….2-2 should get the job done. But with three home games and GT’s point guard out for the season, anything worse than 3-1 would feel disappointing. (Never thought I would say anything like that this year.)</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba12.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>So along with 3-1/4-0 from State, let’s lay out our wish list:</p><ul><li>SYR, VT, and ND stay in the Top 75</li><li>Miami move back in the Top 30</li><li>WF stay in the Top 135</li><li>Penn St and UNCG move into the Top 75</li></ul><p>That’s about as much (and more) than we could reasonably hope for.</p><p> </p><p><strong>ACC STANDINGS</strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba13.png" alt="" /></p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">If Bonzie is playing in the ACCT, then 2-2 might be close enough to get ND a sympathy vote. But if he’s not going to come back, then they would likely need a Thursday win in the ACCT with an 8-10 record or go 3-1 to finish at 9-9.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba14.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>So ND still has a few chances left, but the NIT seems more likely right now.</p><p>Clemson’s PG missed the Duke game on Sunday due to a concussion. They looked pretty pitiful against Duke’s zone press even without Bagley. So it’s hard to say whether Clemson will be able to hold onto a two-round bye or not.</p><p>Right now, it looks like UVa is locked into a 1-seed and the Duke/UNC game would be for the uniform color in the semi’s (if they both advance). In any event, since I’ve listed the schedules for everyone from the #5-#10 seed, here are the schedules for today’s Top 4.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 319px;" /><col style="width: 319px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><p style="text-align: center;">UVa</p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><p style="text-align: center;">Duke</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba15.png" alt="" /></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba16.png" alt="" /></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><p style="text-align: center;">UNC</p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><p style="text-align: center;">Clemson</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba17.png" alt="" /></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba18.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p>It looks to me the top three seeds are probably set, with the minimal difference between a two and three seed not really worth discussing. Let’s see if Clemson can run an offense this week before listing the various options and which ones would be best for State.</p><p> </p><p><strong>UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE</strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021918_1347_ACCBasketba19.png" alt="" /></p><p>If we go to the mathematical limits of the Bubble Definintion, there are alot of games of at least a passing interest this week.</p><p>I’m going to be out of touch for the rest of today. I’ll respond to critiques and questions as soon as I can. I would appreciate it if someone would add the Dance Card info in the comments when it gets updated today.</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-219/">ACC Basketball Update (2/19)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-219/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>26</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">131026</post-id> </item> <item> <title>What the Heck is a Quadrant?</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/what-the-heck-is-a-quadrant/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/what-the-heck-is-a-quadrant/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Tue, 13 Feb 2018 15:31:33 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=130544</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>  I completely missed the news that came out last July about the changes that were being made in the Selection Process for the NCAAT. When I saw articles and forum comments about the changes, I had to google around and see what I could find. Assuming you were ignoring college sports articles thru the […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/what-the-heck-is-a-quadrant/">What the Heck is a Quadrant?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> </p><p>I completely missed the news that came out last July about the changes that were being made in the Selection Process for the NCAAT. When I saw articles and forum comments about the changes, I had to google around and see what I could find. Assuming you were ignoring college sports articles thru the summer like I was, here’s a brief summary on what we missed.</p><p> </p><p><strong>WHY WERE CHANGES MADE?</strong></p><p>A committee from the National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) asked that the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-12-05/ncaa-selection-committee-adjusts-team-sheets-emphasizing">difficulty in winning on the road be reflected on the team sheets used during the selection and seeding process</a>. <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/">This comes on top of analysts arguing for years</a> that more emphasis needed to be put on road wins.</p><p> </p><p><strong>SO EXACTLY WHAT CHANGES ARE BEING MADE?</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections">The big thing seems to be that team sheets will sort the games played into four quadrants</a>:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021318_1531_WhattheHeck1.png" alt="" /></p><p>Note that the NCAA link above lists all of the criteria that the Selection Committee uses.</p><p> </p><p><strong>HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO WHAT HAS BEEN USED IN THE PAST?</strong></p><p><a href="https://www.aseaofblue.com/2017/7/15/15974244/ncaa-tournament-committee-changes-seeding-process-uk">The old method was divided simply by RPI ranges:<br /></a></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021318_1531_WhattheHeck2.png" alt="" /></p><p> </p><p><strong>HOW DID THEY COME UP THE NEW RPI RANGES?<br /></strong></p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #232323;">“<a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/">We consulted with experts within the coaching and analytics fields</a> who looked at historical data, based on winning percentages by game location, to come up with these dividing lines within each of the columns,” Mark Hollis, Michigan State’s athletic director, and the outgoing committee chair, said. “The emphasis of performing well on the road is important, as was the need for teams not to be penalized as much for road losses. Beating elite competition, regardless of the game location, will still be rewarded, but the committee wanted the team sheets to reflect that a road game against a team ranked 60th is mathematically more difficult and of higher quality than a home game versus a team ranked 35th. We feel this change accomplishes that.”<br /></span></p></blockquote><p> </p><p><strong><span style="color: #232323;">WHO IS THIS CHANGE SUPPOSED TO HELP?</span><br /></strong></p><p>Mid-majors of course. Every change made that I’m aware of since a 6-10 FSU got an NCAAT bid has been made to help the mid-majors. Let’s be clear with what “mid-major” means. I don’t think that anyone wants a second team from the bottom dozen or so conferences into the NCAAT. The changes were made to help the Temples or maybe Monmouths of college basketball:</p><blockquote><p><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/">It’s a huge step for mid-majors</a><span style="color: #232323;">, schools forced to play more road games than the majority of teams from conferences that annually land four or more tournament bids.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">“It also puts an emphasis on losses,” an NCAA source who was in the room in Chicago told CBS Sports. “If you look at Monmouth from a couple of years ago, they were dinged for losing games against teams in the 200s on the road. Now, in the current system, those teams would be in the third column now instead of the fourth. It’s not just the wins, but where those losses — which show in up red on the team sheets — land in the columns.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">Monmouth missed the NCAA Tournament in 2015 despite owning many neutral and road wins over power-conference teams (including victories over Notre Dame and USC). Under these guidelines, it’s the Hawks may have landed an at-large bid.<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-12-05/ncaa-selection-committee-adjusts-team-sheets-emphasizing">More on Monmouth:</a><span style="color: #232323;"><br /></span></p><blockquote><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“I think that’s good,” Monmouth coach King Rice told NCAA.com. “We should have gotten into the tournament that year. People still come up to me to this day and tell me that. We had one home game in our first 11 pre-conference games that year. We beat teams that we thought were going to be pretty good.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Monmouth had a win over USC (51) on a neutral court and wins over UCLA (102), Siena (104) and Georgetown (106) in true road games. In the old system, the USC win would have been in the second category on the team sheet the selection committee studies and the other three would have been in the third category of 100 and above. But now they all slide down on the team sheet, to make the resume look more attractive.<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">VaWolf82 translation:<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><em>We didn’t really beat anyone that was any good. But we tried and that should have meant something!!!</em><br /></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO WILL THE NEW SYSTEM REALLY HELP MID-MAJORS?</strong><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Let’s backup and discuss the last time that the RPI formula was changed by adjusting the winning percentages to give more credit for road wins and a bigger hit for home losses. The net effect was to elevate teams at the top of mid-major schools and lower the RPI for teams in the middle of the power conferences. At first glance, you would think that this change would help more mid-majors get at-large bids. But the professors behind <a href="http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm">The Dance Card</a> found that getting an at-large bid better correlated with the old RPI formula. Why was that?<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My theory is that a slightly higher RPI alone won’t increase your chances of getting an at-large bid. You need quality wins to earn spot in the NCAAT. The new RPI formula devalues the win by a home underdog in a power conference…but the Selection Committee usually rewarded these upsets. They have always valued road/neutral wins, but not against the dregs of college basketball. So most of the mid-major road wins that elevated their RPI bought them nothing from the Selection Committee.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">So will this change be any different?<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Well if the people that were so busy touting Monmouth had actually done their job, we would know. You can’t just look at the changes that would have happened to one team’s resume and draw any conclusions. The Selection Committee ranks every team from 1-68. If they are going to describe the changes to Monmouth, then they should also have done the same thing to the resumes of the last four teams to get at-large bids. Then look at all five resumes and see if Monmouth actually looked better than the lowest at-large bids. (PS…Monmouth’s resume was so bland, I didn’t mention them other to make a snide remark in my post-Selection blog post that year.)<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My guess is that the changes could help in certain situations. I don’t have any exact numbers but I suspect that even with the new changes, teams from the middle of power conferences will still have more opportunities to get Quadrant 1 wins than most mid-majors. If a team is any good…more opportunities will translate into more big wins and ultimately more bids.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Now that we know the Dance Card is being updated this year, we can get some clues about how much the new quadrants change the selection process when we compare the actual bids to the Dance Card’s predictions. We probably won’t know anything definitive until there is enough data with the new system for the Dance Card professors to analyze the at-large bids being given out with the new system. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In any event, I would be willing to bet that at least one mid-major will be touted as an example of where the new system helped earn them an at-large bid. We’ll have to take a look at any such examples to see whether or not the new system actually helped or not.<br /></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>DOES THE SELECTION COMMITTEE USE ANY COMPUTER METRIC BESIDES RPI?<br /></strong></span></p><p><a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Yes, but with the following caveat</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">:<br /></span></p><blockquote><p>Each of the 10 committee members uses these various resources to form his or her own opinion, resulting in the committee’s consensus position on selection and seeding.</p></blockquote><p>So other metrics are available to the Selection Committee, but it doesn’t appear that there are any set rules on how to use them. But we definitely know that the RPI is used by the committee because:</p><ul><li><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They specifically say so in the above link.<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The professors behind the Dance Card have proven it by statistical analysis.<br /></span></li></ul><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>EXACTLY WHICH NEW METRICS ARE PRESENTED TO THE SELECTION COMMITTEE?<br /></strong></span></p><blockquote><p>…<a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22144913/ncaa-says-year-test-run-new-evaluation-system">For the first time, committee members will see rankings</a> from ESPN’s BPI and Strength of Record, KPI, Jeff Sagarin Ratings and KenPom.com next to the RPI on the official team sheets used to assess each program…</p><p>The tools all vary in how they assess a team. The RPI, KPI and ESPN’s Strength of Record aim to capture the quality of a team based on its current résumé. And ESPN’s BPI, Sagarin and KenPom.com ratings attempt to predict how a team will perform in the future…</p></blockquote><p>Note that I strongly disagree with using metrics that attempt to predict the future to fill or seed the NCAAT. Both at-large bids and seeds should be earned, not a product of predictive algorithms. Predictive algorithms need to stay in the domain of geeks and gamblers.<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%2010,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Here’s a snip from State’s team sheet from the NCAA on Sunday after the UNC loss</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> (upper left corner of team sheet):<br /></span></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021318_1531_WhattheHeck3.png" alt="" /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Warning: The above link goes to a PDF that has one page for all of the 351 teams in Division 1. Even worse, it doesn’t appear that the pdf is searchable. The NCAA also publishes a <a href="https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%2010,%202018%20Nitty%20Gritty.pdf">“nitty-gritty” report</a> with one summary line for each team…not searchable either. Surprisingly, the <a href="https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx">NCAA has been publishing these each morning for the last several weeks.</a> Just make sure that you don’t click the women’s basketball links by mistake.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I don’t have any clue about the KPI other than it was created by Kevin Pauga. There’s always Google if you want to learn more.<br /></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #232323;"><strong>HOW MANY QUADRANT 2 WINS ARE REQUIRED TO EQUAL ONE QUADRANT 1 WIN?<br /></strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;"><strong>HOW BAD DO QUADRANT 3 OR 4 LOSSES HURT?<br /></strong></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">After seeing the definitions of the new quadrants, these are obviously two of the most important questions. Unfortunately, I haven’t found anything that comes close to answering either question. But before we start speculating on the future, let’s back up and look at what we know about the past.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">I generally make an effort to link interviews with the Selection Committee to hopefully get more information about the inner workings. The problem with this approach is that sometimes you get information that is lacking proper context. For instance, when the selection committee says that someone got in because of their road wins…was that a general criterion or just the area where that particular team stood out from the others competing for the last few bids? Conversely, when the Selection Committee said that SYR was left out last year because they didn’t have good road wins, was that the only reason or was it just more palatable than saying that their RPI sucked?<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">So if we mostly ignore what people say and look at what they do, we should be able to use the inputs from the Dance Card to illuminate the selection process used before this season. <a href="http://www.statefansnation.com/2017/02/the-dance-card-2/">From my entry last year on the Dance Card</a>, we know that the following things can be used to project at-large bids:<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Overall RPI rank (using RPI formula in use prior to 2005)</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">– No. of conference losses below 0.500 record<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Wins vs. teams ranked 1–25 in RPI<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Wins vs. teams ranked 26–50 in RPI<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">No. of road wins<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">No. of wins above 0.500 record against teams ranked 26–50 in RPI<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">– </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">No. of wins above 0.500 record against teams ranked 51–100 in RPI</span></span><span style="color: #232323;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">I put them in this order because that’s the way they were listed in a paper published by the professors. One would think that they are listed in order of their weight with the most important being at the top. In any event, we can look at those factors associated with the quadrants and make some semi-educated guesses.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">In the old system, all wins against the RPI Top 50 were classified as good wins. But when the professors dug a little deeper, not all Column 1 wins were treated the same. Specifically, the good wins actually contributed three different ways:<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">– Wins vs. teams ranked 1–25 in RPI</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">– Wins vs. teams ranked 26–50 in RPI</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">– No. of wins above 0.500 record against teams ranked 26–50 in RPI<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">So it seems reasonable to conclude that the old Column 1 games were mentally split into “good” wins and “really good” wins by the Selection Committee. You could make snide comments about this, but I choose to believe that this shows how much time the Selection Committee spent studying the candidate teams. So one of many questions that come up is will the new Quadrant 1 games be mentally split as well? How much “mental” weight will a road win against a Top 75 team carry when compared with other Quadrant 1 wins?<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">Obviously we don’t have any answers, but here is an example from State’s team sheet on how the Quadrant 1 games are presented to the committee.<br /></span></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021318_1531_WhattheHeck4.png" alt="" /><span style="color: #232323;"><br /></span></p><p> </p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021318_1531_WhattheHeck5.png" alt="" /><span style="color: #232323;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">The color coding is defined at the bottom of the team sheet…but from my viewpoint, the whole layout is ugly enough that it would make my eyes bleed to stare at it for very long. Whoever decided to lump the wins and losses together by sorting based only on opponents’ RPI is an idiot. The games in each quadrant should be separated into wins and losses and both then sorted by RPI. My arrangement would make it much easier to compare one team with another when the committee starts working towards the end of the Bubble.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">But if you can past the horrible presentation, it is not that hard to pick out the RPI ranking of the Q1 wins. So it would not be that difficult to mentally attach extra weight to a team with a Top25 win versus a team with a Top75 win on the road. On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine a scenario where the committee bends over backwards to treat all Q1 wins the same because of the new process. Only time will tell which scenario plays out in this year’s selection process.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">For the old Column 2 games, both wins and losses count in that the professors found that wins above .500 against 51-100 showed some statistical significance in the selection process. So it seems likely that the Q2 wins will carry as much weight as they did in the past…even though it’s not obvious exactly how much weight was ever given to these second-level wins. But based on past quotes from the Selection Committee, the Q2 wins can make a difference when deciding on those last few at-large bids.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">SIDE NOTE<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">ND needs to keep winning unless they meet State in the ACCT. As long as ND remains in the Top75, the loss will be in Q1 and the win in Q2. The FSU and L’ville games also look to be Q2 games. Right now, it seems likely that State will only end up with those three games in Q2 before the ACCT. The uncertainty on how Q2 games will be used adds a little extra importance for State to do no worse than a split with FSU/L’ville.<br /></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>IS THERE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING RID OF THE RPI?</strong><br /></span></p><blockquote><p><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/">There is one anticipated change that didn’t happen in Chicago: removal of the RPI as the primary ranking source</a><span style="color: #232323;">. It’s the data point that builds team sheets, and has been criticized for as outdated and manipulated by savvy schedulers. The NCAA notes in its press release that there is a “likelihood of a new metric being in place for the 2018-19 season.” The NCAA will attempt to run a composite ranking system, plus a separate, unique, independent formula next season as test run behind the scenes. Think of it like a dress rehearsal: the NCAA wants to see how a composite metric and how its individual ranking system performs vs. other established metrics before signing off on an overhaul.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">“The bottom line is we recognize the need to continue using more modern metrics and the need to make those more front and center in the sorting of data for the selection and seeding process,” senior vice president of NCAA basketball Dan Gavitt said. “However, it’s also critical to have a long-term solution that is tested in real time, so we can roll something out that we have complete confidence in, is mathematically sound and is acceptable in every stakeholder’s eyes.”<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">The movement to introduce more modern metrics into the evaluation process <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/what-experts-who-met-with-ncaa-say-about-changes-to-tourney-selection-process/" target="_blank">was formally sparked with a meeting of analytical minds in January</a>. The NCAA is motivated to evolve its selection process, but wants to be certain it has an accurate metric (or composite) before it downgrades the RPI.<br /></span></p></blockquote><p><span style="color: #232323;">Note that it is beyond silly to claim that you need to evaluate the various metrics <em>this year</em>, before making a decision on what metric(s) to use. First of all, you should almost never make a technical decision based on only one data point. Secondly, why couldn’t they look at the last five or ten years and see how the different systems perform relative to the decisions that were made then?<br /></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #232323;"><strong>WILL WE GET ANY MORE DEFINITIVE EXPLANATIONS BEFORE SELECTION SUNDAY?</strong><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">Maybe<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;">In one of the best PR moves of all time, the NCAA starting hosting mock selection sessions to explain and illustrate the process for the media. While it’s obvious no one from CBS or ESPN ever attended, every article that I’ve read was highly complementary of the event. The reason I mention this is that the dates from past years mock events always seem to be in mid-February. So keep your eyes peeled for articles from this year and link them here for our collective education.<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #232323;"><br /></span></p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/what-the-heck-is-a-quadrant/">What the Heck is a Quadrant?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/what-the-heck-is-a-quadrant/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>45</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">130544</post-id> </item> <item> <title>ACC Basketball Update (2-12)</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-2-12/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-2-12/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 12 Feb 2018 14:29:49 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=130486</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Photo by Amrita Malaur of The Technician   Well that was a disappointing week. Not shocking, but still disappointing. The NCAA released their Top 16 on Sunday. I don’t understand why they release this list, but here’s what they’re thinking about the ACC so far: UVA – #1 seed in South Regional Duke – #2 […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-2-12/">ACC Basketball Update (2-12)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Photo by Amrita Malaur of The Technician<br /></em></p><p> </p><p>Well that was a disappointing week. Not shocking, but still disappointing.</p><p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/02/11/ncaa-tournament-committee-reveals-its-top-16-seeds-virginia-villanova/327198002/">The NCAA released their Top 16 on Sunday</a>. I don’t understand why they release this list, but here’s what they’re thinking about the ACC so far:</p><ul><li>UVA – #1 seed in South Regional</li><li>Duke – #2 in East</li><li>UNC – #3 in West</li><li>Clemson – #3 in East</li></ul><p>It’s too early to get worked up over the fine details, but the linked article gives the exact ranking of their Top 16. With UNC at #12 overall, you have to wonder where they would be without the 2-0 record for last week.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI TREND GRAPHS</strong></p><p>GENERAL NOTES:</p><ul><li><div>The trend graphs tend to get rather messy in Feb. I usually only pay attention to the last three data points for each team to look for any emerging trends. If they get really messy, I’ll drop off a few weeks at the beginning of conference play, but I prefer to have the whole ACC season available.</div></li><li><div>When ESPN got their RPI data straightened out last Monday, I updated the graphs. There were minor changes to FSU’s and BC’s position on our graphs, with FSU staying in the Bubble Zone even after their win @L’ville. In other words, not anything that most State fans would care about.</div></li><li>I expanded the “IN” graph into the top end of the Bubble Zone to capture the ups and downs of FSU, SYR, and L’ville all in one graph.</li></ul><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba1.png" alt="" /></p><p>UVA suffered a big upset at home on Sat against VT, but still managed to hold onto their #1 ranking.</p><p>Clemson had two breaks this week…Pitt at home and then the weekend off.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 333px;" /><col style="width: 306px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;" valign="middle">If you look at Duke’s graph, you will see that they started falling after 1/26. I doubt anyone in Durham is panicked, but absolutely no one should be talking about a #1 seed any more. Here are the details on their fall from on high:</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;" valign="middle"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba2.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>UNC’s 2-0 week moved them back up in the rankings.</p><p>Miam’s followed up a win at home against WF with a loss on the road to BC…not a good week for their RPI Ranking.</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 324px;" /><col style="width: 315px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">Since our last update, Louisville had games on Mon, Thurs, and Sun. In total, they had four games in eight days. I don’t think that I’ve ever seen anything similar. Luckily, the Thurs and Sunday games weren’t that taxing. But no one could have predicted that before the season started.All of the AD’s should be on the ACC’s case to make sure that this doesn’t happen to anyone else ever again.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba3.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Louisville’s roller coaster season is a perfect example of why I do these trend graphs…to help point out teams that need a closer look to figure out what’s going on. Here’s their ACC season in chronological order:</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 212px;" /><col style="width: 215px;" /><col style="width: 212px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border: solid 0.5pt;" valign="middle"><p style="text-align: center;">Building RPI</p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: solid 0.5pt; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;" valign="middle"><p style="text-align: center;">Falling into the Bubble Zone</p></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: solid 0.5pt; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;" valign="middle"><p style="text-align: center;">Remaining Schedule</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: none; border-left: solid 0.5pt; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"> <img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba4.png" alt="" /></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba5.png" alt="" /></td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid 0.5pt; border-right: solid 0.5pt;"> <img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba6.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>So basically, L’ville’s ups and downs are a function of their schedule. They win the ones that they are supposed to win, only one of the 50/50 games, and no upsets. Looking forward, L’ville now has the toughest part of their conference schedule left to face. With only one Top 50 win on their resume, they need some big wins. Luckily they will have plenty of opportunities left to prove that they deserve a spot in the NCAAT.</p><p>Just after I write them off, SYR pulled off a 2-0 week that included a win over L’ville on the road. Looking pretty good for now.</p><p>FSU had a disappointing 0-2 week with a loss to UVa at home and to ND on the road.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba7.png" alt="" /></p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 337px;" /><col style="width: 302px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">VT had a great week going 2-0 with a big upset in C’ville. They’ve moved nearly to the good side of the Bubble but have a rough schedule down the stretch.As you can see in the RPI Summary Table down below, they have a Greenburg-type OOC schedule hanging around their necks. If not for that, I would say that the win in C’ville would have moved them into the “lock” category with a 9-9 conference record. But back in the real world, I wouldn’t be comfortable with a win over GT plus one more to get them a guaranteed bid.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba8.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>ND pulled out of their seven-game losing streak with two wins at home against BC and FSU.</p><p>State’s 0-2 week moves them towards the outer edge of the Bubble. They might not be at the very edge of the Bubble, but they’ve got a good view of the NIT from where they’re at.</p><p>BC got a nice win at home against UM to move back towards the Bubble. They’re still out for now, but are staying within shooting distance.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI SUMMARY TABLE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba9.png" alt="" /></p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 332px;" /><col style="width: 307px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">State is sitting at 6-6 in conference which is much better than anything I expected at the start of conference play (especially with the #6 conference SOS in the country). They are in a pretty good position to finish with a 9-9 conf. record, which is often good enough for a NCAAT bid. But with State’s terrible OOC schedule, they have nearly fallen off the back edge of the Bubble even with a .500 conference record.I would not expect 3-3 from here to improve State’s RPI enough to feel comfortable about an NCAAT bid. If memory serves, this is the third week in a row that I’ve made that same observation. So far, I see no reason to change my mind.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba10.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 332px;" /><col style="width: 307px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">Like State, SYR is sitting at 6-6 with six to play. But unlike State, if they can win any three of their remaining games then I think that they are IN. The only problem is that four of their remaining games are against teams that pretty much already have a NCAAT bid wrapped up.Once again we see that a good OOC schedule pays dividends….9-9 in the ACC looks to be good enough for SYR even though they are tracking to have one of the three easiest ACC schedules.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba11.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p><strong>ACC STANDINGS<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba12.png" alt="" /></p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 338px;" /><col style="width: 301px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">I don’t think that I’ve mentioned Clemson recently other than to talk about losing Grantham for the remainder of the season. They’ve done well since then by winning three of four. That’s partially because of their schedule, but they did win the rematch against UNC without Grantham.Their remaining schedule has two games against FSU in a two-week span and three games at home. Not an easy schedule by any means, but not as difficult as several other teams we’ve already discussed.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba13.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 372px;" /><col style="width: 267px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"> ND just about waited too long to pull out of their losing streak. I wouldn’t bet large sums of money that they can go 4-2 down the stretch to get to 9-9, but we’ve all seen stranger things.I would bet a large sum of money that 9-9 and Bonzie playing in the ACCT would be enough to get the Irish into the NCAAT.</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba14.png" alt="" /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p><strong>UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba15.png" alt="" /></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/021218_1449_ACCBasketba16.png" alt="" /></p><p>Ever since UNC’s three-game losing streak, teamrankings.com has picked SYR as State’s second toughest game over the second half. Let’s hope that KK has worked on their zone offense since the Pitt game. This is quite simply a game that both teams need badly.</p><p>Just in case you haven’t been watching WF, they hung close with UNC at home and beat SYR and FSU in Winston. Over the years, I’ve come to dread trips to W-S (and Chestnut Hill).</p><p>This week’s selection of worthwhile games is much improved over last week. Matching up BC/Pitt and GT/WF almost automatically adds four games worth watching to the schedule.</p><p>I don’t remember more ACC games being shown on Sunday after the Super Bowl is over. But we had three games yesterday and two more this week. I checked the remainder of the ACC schedule and State/FSU is the only game on 2/25….which is the last Sunday of the regular season. (The last day of regular season play is on the next Saturday, 3/3.)</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-2-12/">ACC Basketball Update (2-12)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-update-2-12/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>14</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">130486</post-id> </item> <item> <title>ACC Basketball – One Month Left</title> <link>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-one-month-left/</link> <comments>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-one-month-left/#comments</comments> <dc:creator><![CDATA[VaWolf82]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 05 Feb 2018 15:18:36 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[ACC Teams]]></category> <category><![CDATA[College Basketball]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Stat of the Day]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.statefansnation.com/?p=130011</guid> <description><![CDATA[<p>Photo from Rob Kinnan, USA TODAY Sports   Before we get to our normal tables, graphs, and discussions, we have some background stuff that needs to be covered: RABBIT TRAIL #1 On Saturday, I saw someone say that beating ND by a big margin would help State’s RPI. NO! NO!! NO!!! Obviously it’s been a […]</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-one-month-left/">ACC Basketball – One Month Left</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Photo from Rob Kinnan, USA TODAY Sports<br /></em></p><p> </p><p>Before we get to our normal tables, graphs, and discussions, we have some background stuff that needs to be covered:</p><p><strong>RABBIT TRAIL #1</strong></p><p>On Saturday, I saw someone say that beating ND by a big margin would help State’s RPI.</p><p>NO!</p><p>NO!!</p><p>NO!!!</p><p>Obviously it’s been a while since I’ve given my RPI Primer….so here we go again.</p><p>The Rating Percentage Index was developed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to help selecting at-large bids and then seeding the NCAAT. I don’t think that we need to discuss the details of the formula, but it has three (and only three) inputs:</p><ul><li>Team’s Winning Percentage (adjusted for road/home/neutral location)</li><li>Opponent’s Winning Percentage (with the results of your game removed)</li><li>Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage</li></ul><p>So do the math for all 351 Division 1 basketball teams and then sort from largest to smallest. Number the sorted RPI’s from 1-351 and you have the RPI Ranking which is usually shortened to just “RPI”. Not only does point spread not matter, who you beat doesn’t affect the RPI calculations (though who you beat is important on Selection Sunday). For instance, If State went 1-1 at home against UNC and WF, their RPI ranking would be the same no matter which of the two teams State beat.</p><p>People occasionally like to rant about how horrible the RPI formula is. If the formula were blindly used to select the NCAAT teams, then they would have a point. But the RPI is just part of the selection process and thus not worth the time it takes to bitch about.</p><p> </p><p><strong>RABBIT TRAIL #2<br /></strong></p><p>The other big mistake that people make is to bitch about the RPI because of a game-to-game change that they’re not happy with. The key point that some people don’t seem to understand is that what happens to the ranking from one game to the next depends not only on the outcome of the game under discussion, but the results of every team around yours in the rankings.</p><p>To illustrate what I’m talking about, here is a graph showing the RPI versus Ranking for the top 80 teams:</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba1.png" alt="" /></p><p>What I want you to see is that the “Delta” from one team to the next varies as you go through the standings. So if there is a big gap from one team to the next, then it may take more than one favorable game to overtake the next higher team. On the other hand, there are regions where the total difference between a handful of teams is very small….thus a loss will drop you quickly through the group of teams that are bunched together.</p><p>So when we look at the trend graphs, I try to summarize what happened and then the graph shows how much that week’s results helped or hurt. If it doesn’t make sense, then you can rest assured that the unexpected result came because of the gap between teams or what happened to those teams on either side of the team in question.</p><p>So with all of that behind us, let’s go to the Trend Graphs</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI TREND GRAPHS<br /></strong></p><p>ESPN’s RPI numbers are gakked up this morning. I’ve seen this before and it may get fixed today, but maybe not. So all of the numbers are from Sunday’s ESPN report, except for BC (from CBS this morning).</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba2.png" alt="" /></p><p>UVa had another 2-0 week to remain at #1.</p><p>The road loss to St John’s dropped Duke to their lowest point since at least the start of ACC play. <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-03/st-johns-beats-duke-3-ways-red-storm-pulled-shocking-upset">Here’s an article if you want to know more details on the Duke loss.</a></p><p>Clemson got a nice boost in their ranking by beating UNC at home. They followed that up with a win at WF for a 2-0 week.</p><p>UNC’s graph is rather strange. Neither their loss at Clemson, nor their win at home over Pitt budged their ranking.</p><p>Miami also beat Pitt at home, but still dropped a little in the rankings (in direct contrast to UNC). But their RPI ranking bounced back up with a road win over VT.</p><p>L’ville had a bad week (0-2) to drop down a little.</p><p>SYR and FSU got upset on the road mid-week (GT and WF respectively) and dropped into the Bubble Zone. (Note that State has road trips to Atlanta and Winston-Salem remaining on their schedule.) But FSU recovered with a road win at L’ville to move back to IN.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba3.png" alt="" /></p><p>SYR followed up the loss to GT with an absolute beat down by UVa on Saturday to stay in the Bubble Zone (for now).</p><p>State’s results are less-than desired since the home win over ND didn’t make up for the drop it got with no mid-week game.</p><p>ND extended their losing streak to seven and has fallen off the Bubble.</p><p>VT and BC both had a 1-1 week to bounce around the outer edges of the Bubble (though BC is on the wrong side of the line).</p><p> </p><p><strong>RABBIT TRAIL #3</strong></p><p>This is the last rabbit trail (for this week).</p><p>Over the last several weeks, State, BC, and ND have had their scheduled break and all three dropped in the rankings during that break. Since this drop occurred in essentially the same region of the Bubble, what conclusions can we draw from this?</p><p>If we look at the winning percentage for teams ranked from 50-75, we find that the teams are winning about two games out of three. So if the teams are grouped tightly enough, it’s not surprising that a few teams would move past you when you aren’t playing.</p><p>So why does this change matter? Let’s go back to last week’s discussion where I argued that a 4-5 record down the stretch wouldn’t make State a lock for the NCAAT. My argument was based only on logic…sound logic, but no real proof. But if we look at dropping in the rankings without playing, then how much would State drop if they finish the regular season with a losing record over the last half of the conference schedule? Now they still might make the NCAAT, but they certainly wouldn’t be a lock.</p><p>This explanation still might not be enough for some of the dimmer members of our fan base, so here’s another piece of data. In 2009, Penn State got left out of the NCAAT with the following resume:</p><div><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 84px;" /><col style="width: 66px;" /></colgroup><tbody valign="top"><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">Win/Loss</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">22-11</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">Conf W/L</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">10-8</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">RPI</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">68</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">SOS</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">92</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">OOC SOS</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">304</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">vs 1-25</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">2-4</td></tr><tr><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">vs 26-50</td><td style="padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 7px;">4-5</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p> </p><p>This Penn St example should be adequate rebuttal to those who claim that State’s OOC schedule or that their RPI wouldn’t keep State out of the NCAAT because of State’s good wins. <a href="http://www.statefansnation.com/2009/03/selection-sunday-bubble-thoughts/">If you go back to the entry where we discussed this Penn St decision</a>, you would see that two teams from the Big 10 got at-large bids with worse conference records BUT much better RPI rankings. So once again we see that RPI matters. It’s not the only thing that matters, but it does matter.</p><p>This whole discussion brings us back to my formula for making the NIT:</p><p>Miserable OOC schedule +<br />Mediocre conference performance +<br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mediocre conference tourney performance</span> =<br />NIT</p><p>So if you want to be a lock before the ACCT starts, you better win enough to move your RPI away from the burst point of the Bubble if you have a terrible OOC schedule…like State does this year.</p><p>One last thing….in the past State has moved off of the Bubble and into the NCAAT with big wins in the ACCT. It happened two or three times during the Sendek era (the exact number is up for debate) and once with Gott (when State played in the First Four). I was shocked that State made the NCAAT with TJ Warren, but I certainly didn’t suggest that State should turn down the bid. So the ACCT remains the last chance for the desperate.</p><p>Now back to our normal tables and discussion:</p><p> </p><p><strong>RPI SUMMARY TABLE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba4.png" alt="" /></p><p>I was pretty pessimistic last week about Syracuse, but <a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22251935/syracuse-orange-ncaa-tournament-bracketology-joe-lunardi">Joe Lunardi laid it out better than I did</a>:</p><blockquote><p><em>My head says the Orange (15-6, 4-4)</em> [now 4-6] <em>are overachieving and don’t have quite enough to land an NCAA bid. They are 0-5 against the best teams on their schedule to date and must still host Virginia and North Carolina while visiting Louisville, Miami and Duke. A winning ACC record seems too much to ask.<br /></em></p></blockquote><ul><li>Note if you really like figuring out where the thin line between the First Four and the NIT are, then you should click the Lunardi link above. He goes through examples of where Syracuse fell just on one side or the other over the last decade.</li></ul><p>L’ville still only has one Top 50 win…on the road at FSU. Of course this past week they returned the favor when they lost the return game with FSU. I’m not going to make a big deal out of this today, but it is highly unusual for an ACC team to have only one Top 5o RPI win this late in the season while having a Top 25 RPI. In any event, you can add L’ville to the list of teams with tough finishes to their schedule. They still have games left against UNC, Duke, and UVA along with road trips to Blacksburg and Raleigh.</p><p>On Sunday night, State was listed in 67 of 79 brackets on the Bracket Matrix. That might not be worth a whole lot, but it sure is fun to see. But the average seed was 10.64, so it wouldn’t take many losses to disappear real fast.</p><p>So far, <a href="http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm">The Dance Card</a> hasn’t updated their web site yet for this season. With the change in the selection process this year, I don’t know if they are taking a wait and see approach or not. I wish they would update so that we could see if the new system has any real effect on the overall selection process.</p><p> </p><p><strong>ACC STANDINGS<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba5.png" alt="" align="left" /></p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The bottom of the ACC is starting to look really bad…and UVa continues to run away from everyone else.</p><p>VT has now lost to both FSU and UM at home. Those aren’t horrible losses by any means, but VT needs wins badly. They still have two games left against Duke, road games against UVA, Duke, and Miami along with Clemson and L’ville at home. As I said the other week, I don’t like their chances.</p><p>To the best of my memory, State never got a one-round bye in the 12 team ACC and certainly hasn’t gotten a two-round bye in our current ginormous configuration. They might not get there this year, but you have to admit that it looks nice to be tied for fourth place. Miami and Duke are still tracking for the two easiest ACC schedules, so I don’t think that State can pass them…but that’s why they play the games.</p><p> </p><p><strong>UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE<br /></strong></p><p><img decoding="async" src="http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/020518_1518_ACCBasketba6.png" alt="" /></p><p>Based on the predictive algorithms at Team Rankings and RPI Wizard, this will be State’s toughest week remaining in the regular season. My source (ie friend who actually watches VT BB) says that VT is weak inside and usually gets out rebounded. He also says that their outside shooting runs hot and cold. So we’ll soon see if he knows what he’s talking about or not.</p><p>I’m quickly losing hope/interest in the teams currently at the bottom of the conference standings. It seems like those six teams are playing the top half of the conference this week which doesn’t leave many interesting games. Other than the State games, there are only a couple of games that I MIGHT watch:</p><p>Monday night might be one of the final nails in SYR’s coffin. I really don’t care that much so I’ll see if there’s anything interesting on and check in on the game from time to time.</p><p>FSU has pulled plenty of upsets at home over the years, so I’ll watch to see if they have anything for UVA.</p><p>Be prepared for the hype surrounding the first matchup of the Blues this week. The best advice I’ve seen on this game from the perspective of a State fan is to always pull for the visiting team. If the visitors win, then you’ll get a chance to laugh at the crowd shots as the bad news starts to sink in to the home crowd.</p><p>The post <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-one-month-left/">ACC Basketball – One Month Left</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.statefansnation.com">StateFans Nation</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded> <wfw:commentRss>https://www.statefansnation.com/2018/02/acc-basketball-one-month-left/feed/</wfw:commentRss> <slash:comments>26</slash:comments> <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">130011</post-id> </item> </channel></rss> If you would like to create a banner that links to this page (i.e. this validation result), do the following:
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