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<title>Stars On The Rise: Top-10 Players Who Have Boosted Their Fantasy Value This Postseason</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/stars-on-the-rise-top-10-players-who-have-boosted-their-fantasy-value-this-postseason/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/stars-on-the-rise-top-10-players-who-have-boosted-their-fantasy-value-this-postseason/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Flip Livingstone]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2024 18:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Hockey Top 10]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82861</guid>
<description><![CDATA[In the fantasy hockey world, it’s never too early to look ahead at draft season to start pondering and plotting moves to get a leg up on other GMs who might be slacking. Digging into numbers, doing advanced research, and having a constant eye on how the rest of the playoffs unfold are all excellent [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
In the fantasy hockey world, it's never too early to look ahead at draft season to start pondering and plotting moves to get a leg up on other GMs who might be slacking. Digging into numbers, doing advanced research, and having a constant eye on how the rest of the playoffs unfold are all excellent ways to keep a finger on the fantasy pulse while monitoring players on the rise.
Postseason performances, both good and bad, can have a direct impact on where certain players will be drafted come next fall. With that in mind, we're taking a dive into the top-10 fantasy pieces that have boosted their value with strong postseason play over the past two weeks of NHL action.
10. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brady-skjei">Brady Skjei</a>
This one is likely the deepest cut on the list as Skjei's contributions to the Carolina Hurricanes mostly fly under-the-radar, but the 30-year-old veteran is following up a great regular season of 13 goals and 34 assists with strong playoff production while anchoring the Canes' second pairing and power-play unit. Skjei will be an excellent option in deeper fantasy formats and keeper leagues next season, especially if he continues to put up points and fill out categories like he has through the first round with five assists, 12 shots on net, eight blocked shots, and seven hits.
9.  <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arturs-silovs">Arturs Silovs</a>
The goalie carousel out west for the Vancouver Canucks keeps on spinning, as reports emerged Sunday that number one netminder <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> could return to the lineup soon. Until then, third-string Latvian upstart Arturs Silovs is likely to continue to be the guy in the blue paint for Rick Tocchet's team. Silovs has international experience as the starting goaltender for the Latvian national team and the third-stringer is currently looking calm, cool, and collected making the most of his first taste of NHL postseason hockey. Obviously, next season and for the foreseeable future, the crease in Van City is Demko's and Silovs' future isn't exactly crystal clear. However, when it comes to the fantasy hockey side of things, you never can have too many options and in keeper/dynasty leagues Silovs could end up being a very intriguing option – especially if he continues to put up the numbers he has through his first three games. Silovs is rocking a 2-1 record to go along with a sparkling .938 save percentage, 1.70 goals-against average, and a shutout. The kid's got game.
8. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-knies">Matthew Knies</a>
Speaking of which, Toronto Maple Leafs young gun Matthew Knies is also fitting in seamlessly during the NHL's postseason as he currently leads all rookies in playoff scoring with three points. Knies has seven points in 14 career postseason games, he's only 21 years old, and as he continues to get comfortable using his big frame to create chances, his fantasy hockey value will rise. Knies has proven he can get it done when it matters most and he will have a huge opportunity next season to play with the likes of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a>. Do not sleep on Knies, he's going to be a great late-round addition to any squad.
7. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jeremy-swayman">Jeremy Swayman</a>
If it wasn't clear who the number one guy was in Boston before, it is now. Swayman stymied the Maple Leafs for the majority of the first round, allowing only nine total goals in six games while rocking a sensational .950 SV.%. Swayman is a restricted free agent this summer and is in line for a juicy payday, which won't factor into his fantasy value, but if he keeps performing like he has of late he will be one of the first five-or-six goaltenders off the board in upcoming fantasy drafts.
6. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-hanifin">Noah Hanifin</a>
The Vegas Golden Knights weren't able to squeak it out against the Dallas Stars on Sunday night, but that's got absolutely nothing to do with Noah Hanifin. The big trade-deadline addition showed up in a major way for the Knights over their seven-game battle with Dallas, putting up two goals, three assists, 12 shots, and 12 blocks while logging well over 20 minutes of ice time per night and anchoring Vegas' top power-play unit. Hanifin is locked down long term with a very good Golden Knights team, making him an even more attractive rearguard option with his value on the come up.
5. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vincent-trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a>
Another week and another shoutout to one of the most complete two-way players and fantasy assets in the game today: Vinny Trocheck is an absolute beautician. This guy really does it all and he's anchoring a dangerous line for the Rangers right now that has <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/artemi-panarin">Artemi Panarin</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a> on his flanks. Trocheck's value is rising in a hurry on the back of eight games of phenomenal production that's seen the veteran register four goals (three on the man advantage), four assists, 14 hits, 12 shots on net, four blocked shots, and an incredible 67 percent success rate in the faceoff dot. Double-circle Trocheck for another big year next season. He really shouldn't be around much past the end of third or fourth rounds.
4. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/wyatt-johnston">Wyatt Johnston</a>
There is so much to love about Wyatt Johnston's game and he's not even 20 years old yet. Poise, ability to show up in the clutch, a lethal shot, you name it and Johnston's already got it all at elite levels. Johnston looks like a 10-year vet out there right now and is a huge difference-maker for a Dallas team that is very much for real. The Toronto product is leading the NHL in shots on net during the playoffs and he also has seven points and a game-winning goal under his belt. Remember this name because it's going to be one you want on your roster year in and year out.
3. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/seth-jarvis">Seth Jarvis</a>
If you haven't been buying into Seth Jarvis just yet, it's time to wake up and smell the smoke. The fire coming off Jarvis' stick right now is almost tangible, as the slick-skating winger currently leads the Canes in goals and points with four and eight, respectively. Jarvis showed all regular-season long that he deserves to be a top-six forward and he's backing that up with a fantastic postseason showing that's powering the Hurricanes' offensive attack. Much like Johnston above, Jarvis is just scratching the surface of his talent, next season he breaks out.
2. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carter-verhaeghe">Carter Verhaeghe</a>
This is all you need to hear about Verhaeghe and his value on the rise: not only does he have nine points to sit tied for the lead for the Florida Panthers in playoff scoring, his overtime winner in Game 2 against the Tampa Bay Lightning moved him into a tie for third all-time for playoff OT goals (five) in NHL history, sitting behind only Maurice Richard and Joe Sakic. OK, one more thing. Verhaeghe, who is in the midst of his prime on a very dangerous Panthers club, has legit perennial 40-goal potential. Make sure you keep an eye on his availability as he's in line for another season north of 70 points.
1. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/evan-bouchard">Evan Bouchard</a>
Dedicated hockey heads have been all over Evan Bouchard and his elite offensive ability for the past couple seasons. However, if for some reason you find yourself in a league where GMs are a bit newer to the game and Bouchard becomes available, jump all over him as he's quickly becoming a top-five offensive option on the blue line. A lot of that obviously has to do with the unreal power-play the Edmonton Oilers roll out that includes the likes of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-mcdavid">Connor McDavid</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/leon-draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a>, among many others, but Bouchard has a nasty shot and is an absolute natural quarterbacking rearguard. Bouchard leads all d-men in playoff scoring with nine points, vaulting his fantasy value to a point where he's a lock to be taken in the first three or four rounds.
]]></content:encoded>
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<item>
<title>Wild West: 2024-2025 Salary Cap Space Preview</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/wild-west-2024-2025-salary-cap-space-preview/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/wild-west-2024-2025-salary-cap-space-preview/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Grant Campbell]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2024 14:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[The Wild West]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82842</guid>
<description><![CDATA[This week, we will look at the salary cap space for each team in the West and look at the UFAs leaving and the RFAs who need to be re-signed. From the surface, it feels like there is far more cap space available for teams to sign free agents this off season than has been [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
This week, we will look at the salary cap space for each team in the West and look at the UFAs leaving and the RFAs who need to be re-signed.
From the surface, it feels like there is far more cap space available for teams to sign free agents this off season than has been for the past two or three years. The salary cap for 2024-2025 is $87.7 million.
Could this drive prices a little higher in free agency? Or will teams use their cap space wisely and hold teams accountable who don't?
Anaheim Ducks – $33.00 million 2024-2025 Cap Space
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jakob-Silfverberg">Jakob Silfverberg</a> (F) (Retired) $5.25 million, Ben Meyers (F) $775k, William Lagesson (D) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Stalock">Alex Stalock</a> (G) $800k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/isac-lundestrom">Isac Lundestrom</a> (F) $1.8 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/max-jones">Max Jones</a> (F) $1.295 million, Brett Leason (F) $775k, Bo Groulx (F) $775k, Gustav Lindstrom (D) $925k, Jackson LaCombe (D) $925k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/urho-vaakanainen">Urho Vaakanainen</a> (D) $850k.
The Ducks spent about $11 million dollars in free agency on July 1st, 2023 adding <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Killorn">Alex Killorn</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Radko-Gudas">Radko Gudas</a> which was a little surprising for this young roster.
They have two roster spots to replace in losing Silfverberg and Lagesson, but those are of a fourth liner and a sixth or seventh defender, so shouldn't cost them more than $2 or 3 million AAV.
Their RFAs are all fairly inexpensive to re-sign at this point and shouldn't exceed another $7 or 8 million AAV as not all the above will be rostered.
The Ducks could be a major player in free agency or bringing in salary via trade, if they feel they are a year or two out from the playoffs.
I'd prefer them to keep the cap space and weaponize it for more draft picks as they are still two or three years out in my mind.
Arizona Coyotes (now Utah) – $43.26 million available
UFA
Liam O'Brien (F) $775k, Josh Brown (D) $1.275 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/travis-dermott">Travis Dermott</a> (D) $800k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jakub-Voracek">Jakub Voracek</a> (F) Retiring $8.25 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Bryan-Little">Bryan Little</a> (F) Retiring $5.29 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/travis-boyd">Travis Boyd</a> $1.75 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/barrett-hayton">Barrett Hayton</a> (F) $1.775 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sean-durzi">Sean Durzi</a> (D) $1.7 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/juuso-valimaki">Juuso Valimaki</a> (D) $1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/j.j.-moser">J.J. Moser</a> (D) $887k
With the move to Utah, this team, which was already on the rise, has a real chance to grow and improve this roster instantly. I think free agents will be a lot more willing to go to Salt Lake City than they were to head to Phoenix in the past few years.
To replace their unrestricted free agents, they are looking to replace two fourth liners and two sixth or seventh defenders. They should be able to replace those four for under $5 or $6 million if they upgrade.
Hayton didn't do himself any favors for a big raise from $1.775 million AAV and will be fortunate to get much more than he is making already. Valimaki and Moser could get somewhere between $2 and 2.5 million unless Utah wants to lock them up longer term. Durzi played himself into a salary range above $4 million AAV, but will Utah think he is the long-term guy on the power play?
This club should have $25-35 million available for free agency if they choose.
Calgary Flames – $19.82 million available
UFA
A.J. Greer (F) $762k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/oliver-kylington">Oliver Kylington</a> (D) $2.5 million, Dennis Gilbert (D) $762k
RFA
Nikita Okhotiuk (D) $789k
The Flames don't have many players to re-sign and should have an opportunity to upgrade at a few positions via free agency or trade.
They could bring Kylington back but probably not at $2.5 million AAV.
They should have $18 to 20 million available.
Chicago Blackhawks – $33.84 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Johnson">Tyler Johnson</a> (F) $5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/colin-blackwell">Colin Blackwell</a> (F) $1.2 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nikita-zaitsev">Nikita Zaitsev</a> (D) $4.5 million,  Jarred Tinordi (D) $1.25 million, Jaycob Megna (D) 762k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mackenzie-entwistle">Mackenzie Entwistle</a> (F) $800k, Reese Johnson (F) $800k, Joey Anderson (F) $800k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/taylor-raddysh">Taylor Raddysh</a> (F) $758k
Chicago still has $2 million retained in 2024-25 for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-mccabe">Jake McCabe</a> and $1.17 million in dead cap for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Josh-Bailey">Josh Bailey</a>.
Other than Blackwell, I don't see the team bringing back any of the UFAs above, so they will need to replace a top six forward, a bottom six forward and three depth defenders. None of the RFAs should get anything more than $1 or 1.2 million AAV, if Chicago brings them back.
Chicago could do well in free agency as I can imagine players wanting a chance to play with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-bedard">Connor Bedard</a> for a few years. It might be a year or two early for the Blackhawks to spend to the limit.
Colorado Avalanche – $9.79 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/yakov-trenin">Yakov Trenin</a> (F) $1.7 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-duhaime">Brandon Duhaime</a> (F) $1.1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Andrew-Cogliano">Andrew Cogliano</a> (F) $825k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonathan-Drouin">Jonathan Drouin</a> (F) $825k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Zach-Parise">Zach Parise</a> (F) $825k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joel-kiviranta">Joel Kiviranta</a> (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sean-walker">Sean Walker</a> (D) $2.65 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jack-Johnson">Jack Johnson</a> (D) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/caleb-jones">Caleb Jones</a> (D) $775k, Arvid Holm (G) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-francouz">Pavel Francouz</a> (G) Retiring $2 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-mittelstadt">Casey Mittelstadt</a> (F) $2.5 million
Colorado still has to see how they do in the playoffs, which will influence what they do next year. As it stands, they might need $4.5 to 5.5 million AAV to sign Mittelstadt. After that they need to replace four or five starting forwards and two starting defenders.
The math doesn't add up to pay Mittelstadt and fill up the roster, so something will need to give, regardless how they do.
Dallas Stars – $15.95 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a> (F) $3.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> (F) $3 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Craig-Smith">Craig Smith</a> (F) $1 million, Jani Hakanpaa (D) $1.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Tanev">Chris Tanev</a> (D) $4.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/scott-wedgewood">Scott Wedgewood</a> (G) $1 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ty-dellandrea">Ty Dellandrea</a> (F) $900k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sam-steel">Sam Steel</a> (F) $850k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-lundkvist">Nils Lundkvist</a> (D) $925k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thomas-harley">Thomas Harley</a> (D) $863k.
Harley is a priority to re-sign and they could lock up long-term or bridge him. If they bridge, I think it would be north of $4 million AAV and if they go long-term it could be north of $5.5 million AAV.
I'm sure the team would love to bring back Pavelski, Duchene and Tanev, but they won't get Duchene at $3 million AAV.
After the dust settles, they should be right up against the cap if they bring back who they want above. The future of Dellandrea, Steel, and Lundkvist in Dallas should be interesting as I wouldn't be surprised if they are moved.
Edmonton Oilers – $9.83 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/warren%20foegele">Warren Foegele</a> (F) $2.75 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Adam-Henrique">Adam Henrique</a> (F) $5.825 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mattias-Janmark">Mattias Janmark</a> (F) $1 million,
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-brown">Connor Brown</a> (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Gagner">Sam Gagner</a> (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Corey-Perry">Corey Perry</a> (F) $775k, Sam Carrick (F) $850k,
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/troy-stecher">Troy Stecher</a> (D) $1.1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Calvin-Pickard">Calvin Pickard</a> (G) $762k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-holloway">Dylan Holloway</a> (F) $925k, Philip Broberg (D) $863k
The players I can see Edmonton bringing back out of their listed UFAs are Foegele, Janmark, Brown and Pickard. I don't think Foegele is worth more than $3 to 3.5 million AAV for them, so if another team is willing to pay more, he could be gone. The others would have to be around $1 million AAV or cheaper to bring back.
Signing Holloway is a given, but signing Broberg isn't. Broberg will require waivers to be sent down in 2024-2025.
Los Angeles Kings – $20.9 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/viktor-arvidsson">Viktor Arvidsson</a> (F) $4.25 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Trevor-Lewis">Trevor Lewis</a> (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matt-roy">Matt Roy</a> (D) $3.15 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Cam-Talbot">Cam Talbot</a> (G) $1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/david-rittich">David Rittich</a> (G) $875k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/blake-lizotte">Blake Lizotte</a> (F) $1.675 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carl-grundstrom">Carl Grundstrom</a> (F) $1.3 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinton-byfield">Quinton Byfield</a> (F) $894k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arthur-kaliyev">Arthur Kaliyev</a> (F) $894k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-spence">Jordan Spence</a> (D) $820k
With the Kings getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, they will look to get two goalies signed or dealt for next season. They aren't going to win the lottery spending $1.875 million on two goalies like Talbot and Rittich and get the return they received again.
It will be interesting to see if Arvidsson or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matt-roy">Matt Roy</a> will return.
I'm not convinced the team will offer Lizotte or Grundstrom qualifying deals, but the team has a big raise coming for Byfield, whether they choose to bridge or go long-term.
The Kings will need to replace a top-six forward, a top four defender and both goalies for under $12 or 13 million AAV.
Minnesota Wild – $5.92 million available
UFA
Jacob Lucchini (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Goligoski">Alex Goligoski</a> (D) $2 million, Dakota Mermis (D) $775k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mason-shaw">Mason Shaw</a> (F) $775k, Declan Chisholm (D) $775k
The Wild still have $14.74 million in dead cap in 2024-25 for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Zach-Parise">Zach Parise</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Suter">Ryan Suter</a>.
Minnesota needed the salary cap increase as it hurt their ability to improve their roster in 2023-2024 even with the potential to use LTIR on <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jared-Spurgeon">Jared Spurgeon</a>. They are losing depth only and should have the space available to improve a little.
Nashville Predators – $18.52 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jason-Zucker">Jason Zucker</a> (F) $5.3 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anthony-beauvillier">Anthony Beauvillier</a> (F) $4.15 million, Kiefer Sherwood (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyson-Barrie">Tyson Barrie</a> (D) $4.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexandre-carrier">Alexandre Carrier</a> (D) $2.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kevin-lankinen">Kevin Lankinen</a> (G) $2 million
RFA
Juuso Parssinen (F) $850k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jaret-anderson-dolan">Jaret Anderson-Dolan</a> (F) $775k, Spencer Stastney (D)$925k
The Predators will have $7.55 million in dead cap space in 2024-2025 for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Kyle-Turris">Kyle Turris</a>.
Out of the UFAs that Nashville has pending, I would think that Carrier and Sherwood would be welcome back at similar contracts. I don't think the team is in a place to bring back Zucker, Beauvillier, Barrie, or Lankinen, with the prospects that they have in the AHL.
They are in a tough spot because <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Roman-Josi">Roman Josi</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Filip-Forsberg">Filip Forsberg</a> don't have time to wait on young players to develop over two or three years. I think the Predators will be medium buyers in free agency and try to add two top-six forwards and a top-four defender.
San Jose Sharks – $38.17 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kevin-labanc">Kevin Labanc</a> (F) $4.725 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mike-Hoffman">Mike Hoffman</a> (F) $4.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexander-barabanov">Alexander Barabanov</a> (F) $2.5 million,
Justin Bailey (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ryan-carpenter">Ryan Carpenter</a> (F)$775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jacob-macdonald">Jacob MacDonald</a> (D) $762k, Devin Cooley (G) $775k
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/luke-kunin">Luke Kunin</a> (F)$2.75 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-zadina">Filip Zadina</a> (F) $1.1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thomas-bordeleau">Thomas Bordeleau</a> (F) $917k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-studnicka">Jack Studnicka</a> (F) $762k, Henry Thrun (D) $912k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/calen-addison">Calen Addison</a> (D) $825k, Ty Emberson (D) $775k
The Sharks are a mess, but have a lot of salary cap space opening up. Unless they overpay substantially, I'm not sure they are going to attract the type of player who can turn this ship around in two or three years in free agency. Much like Anaheim, I truly believe they are better off with another season of pain, and weaponizing their cap space for additional draft picks and prospects. Their cupboard is bare now of blue-chip veterans.
I don't think they will qualify Kunin, Studnicka, Zadina or Addison.
They will need to spend to the salary cap floor which is spending $13 or 14 million from where they are now.
Seattle Kraken – $23.12 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tomas-Tatar">Tomas Tatar</a> (F) $1.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pierre-edouard-bellemare">Pierre-Edouard Bellemare</a> (F) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Justin-Schultz">Justin Schultz</a> (D) $3 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/chris-driedger">Chris Driedger</a> (G) $2.35 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kailer-yamamoto">Kailer Yamamoto</a> (F) $1.5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/eeli-tolvanen">Eeli Tolvanen</a> (F) $1.45 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matty-beniers">Matthew Beniers</a> (F) $897k
The Kraken have some potential big raises for Tolvanen and Beniers if they choose to go longer term.
I think they might with Beniers but he has more value than he showed last year and could want $6 or 6.5 million AAV for six or more years.
Tolvanen deserves a raise as well, but he was picked up on waivers and it's rare for a player who is acquired in that manner to get more than $3.5 to 4 million AAV, which is where he might be at.
I don't think they qualify Yamamoto.
The Kraken will need to replace two or three bottom six forwards and a top four defender for $12-14 million AAV.
St. Louis Blues – $14.77 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kasperi-kapanen">Kasperi Kapanen</a> (F) $3.2 million, Samuel Blais (F) $1 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Marco-Scandella">Marco Scandella</a> (D) $3.275 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jakub-vrana">Jakub Vrana</a> (F)$5.75 million
RFA
Nikita Alexandrov (F) $816k,  <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/scott-perunovich">Scott Perunovich</a> (D)$775k
The Blues are in good shape heading into the off season as their roster is relatively intact and they have some money to play with.
They might bring back Blais for similar money and re-sign Alexandrov and Perunovich as well.
They could have $12-13 million available to upgrade in other areas.
Vancouver Canucks – $24.78 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Elias-Lindholm">Elias Lindholm</a> (F) $4.85 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/teddy-blueger">Teddy Blueger</a> (F) $1.9 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sam-lafferty">Sam Lafferty</a> (F) $1.15 million, Dakota Joshua (F) $825k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Myers">Tyler Myers</a> (D) $6 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Zadorov">Nikita Zadorov</a> (D) $3.75 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ian-Cole">Ian Cole</a> (D) $3 million, Mark Friedman (D) $775k, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-desmith">Casey DeSmith</a> (G) $1.8 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-hronek">Filip Hronek</a> (D)$4.4 million, Arturs Silovs (G) $786k
The Canucks should be in a position to re-sign Hronek to $5.5 million AAV as the rumor was that his camp wanted $6.5 million or more. He kind of played himself out of that price range as the second half progressed and that is two years in a row where his second half has faltered significantly.
Silovs' value will be determined by how things go the rest of the playoffs for him. I think he has played himself into a new one-way contract which shouldn't be expensive for the team (unless he rides this whole thing out).
I think the team would love to have Blueger back at similar money, but the market probably gives him $2.5 to 3 million AAV.
They will make an effort to bring back Joshua but he should get offers close to $3.5 million AAV, while Lindholm is looking in the ballpark of $6 million AAV plus, which is too rich for Vancouver.
Myers at $3 to 3.5 million for two or three years is palpable, while the temptation to overpay on Zadorov is real. I'm convinced someone will give him four years at $5 million AAV.
I don't think the Canucks have any interest in bringing back Lafferty, Cole, Friedman or DeSmith.
Vegas Golden Knights – $897k available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jonathan-marchessault">Jonathan Marchessault</a> (F) $5 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anthony-mantha">Anthony Mantha</a> (F) $5.7 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/chandler-stephenson">Chandler Stephenson</a> (F) $2.75 million, William Carrier (F) $1.4 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alec-Martinez">Alec Martinez</a> (D) $5.25 million
RFA
Pavel Dorofeyev (F) $825k
This just got real tonight with their elimination from the playoffs at the hands of the Dallas Stars.
The departure of Marchessault, Stephenson, Carrier and Martinez is a real blow to this roster and for the first time in their existence, the Golden Knights don't have an obvious fix to their problem.
They will need to replace two top-six forwards, a bottom six forward, and a top-four defender from within or via trade, but Vegas has no cap space until <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Stone">Mark Stone</a> is put on LTIR again next year.
Winnipeg Jets – $13.35 million available
UFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Toffoli">Tyler Toffoli</a> (F) $4.25 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sean-Monahan">Sean Monahan</a> (F) $1.985 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brenden-Dillon">Brenden Dillon</a> (D) $3.9 million, Dylan DeMelo (D) $3 million, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/colin-miller">Colin Miller</a> (D) $1.85 million, Laurent Brossoit (G) $1.75 million
RFA
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cole-perfetti">Cole Perfetti</a> (F) $894k, David Gustafsson (F) $775k, Logan Stanley (D) $1 million
The Jets should re-sign Perfetti and Gustafsson, but we will see if they do the same for Stanley.
I'm sure the Jets would love to bring back Dillon, DeMelo and Brossoit at similar money, but the market might be after all three of these players.
Toffoli has scored 30 goals in each of the past two seasons and he should get $5 million AAV or more, but it's tough to pinpoint but there is something missing from his game that keeps him from getting over that magic number.
Monahan proved he is back to a level at much higher than his $1.985 million AAV from this past year and should see multiple offers north of $4 million AAV in free agency if not more.
The departures of Dillon, DeMelo and Brossoit will hurt this roster more than the others, if the Jets can't bring them back.
The club has about $12 million for two top four defenders, a backup goalie and two top-nine forwards.
–
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/dobberhockey">Twitter</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/gampbler15">@gampbler15</a>.
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<title>Ramblings: Second Round Previews, Regular Season vs Playoff Player Rating Comparison (May 6)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/ramblings-second-round-previews-regular-season-vs-playoff-player-rating-comparison-may-6/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/06/ramblings-second-round-previews-regular-season-vs-playoff-player-rating-comparison-may-6/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Grant Campbell]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2024 05:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82832</guid>
<description><![CDATA[We had two games on Sunday, with one being Game 1 of the second round between Carolina and the NY Rangers, and the other being Game 7 between Vegas and Dallas. NY Rangers vs Carolina The Rangers won 4-3 in a tight game, where Carolina went 0-for-5 on the power play and the Rangers went [...]]]></description>
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We had two games on Sunday, with one being Game 1 of the second round between Carolina and the NY Rangers, and the other being Game 7 between Vegas and Dallas.
NY Rangers vs Carolina
The Rangers won 4-3 in a tight game, where Carolina went 0-for-5 on the power play and the Rangers went 2-for-2. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/igor-shesterkin">Igor Shesterkin</a> outplayed <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Frederik-Andersen">Frederik Andersen</a> and made some timely saves in the third period to prevent this game from going to OT.
Mika Zibanajed had two goals and an assist, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vincent-Trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a> had a goal and an assist and Chris Kreider chipped in with two assists. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Artemi-Panarin">Artemi Panarin</a> had an eventual game winning goal which made the game 4-2 at the time. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ryan-lindgren">Ryan Lindgren</a> led the Rangers in ice time at 23:35, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/will-cuylle">Will Cuylle</a> led with six hits and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jacob-Trouba">Jacob Trouba</a> had four hits and six blocks.
For Carolina, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sebastian-aho/CAR">Sebastian Aho</a> led with two assists, while the goals were scored by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/seth-jarvis">Seth Jarvis</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-necas">Martin Necas</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jaccob-slavin">Jaccob Slavin</a>. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brent-Burns">Brent Burns</a> led the team in ice time at 22:54, while Aho and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-martinook">Jordan Martinook</a> led with four hits each and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> led with five blocks.
Dallas vs Vegas
Dallas had home ice for game seven and this game was tied 1-1 after two periods on goals by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/wyatt-johnston">Wyatt Johnston</a> for Dallas and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brett-howden">Brett Howden</a> for Vegas.
In the third period, Dallas got an early goal from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/radek-faksa">Radek Faksa</a> on a backhand which went off the leg of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alec-Martinez">Alec Martinez</a> and into the top corner.
The Stars hung on from there and got a great game from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-oettinger">Jake Oettinger</a> in goal. The trade for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Tanev">Chris Tanev</a> sure looks good, while some would say Vegas got struck by karma. Dallas will face Colorado in round 2.
Second-Round Preview
I'm going to look at the upcoming second round in detail and make some predictions based on the current lineups. The PGR number is my player game ratings, which is based off the final regular-season stats and doesn't include the playoffs so far.
I'm going to look at the playoff performance of some key players on each team and see where their rating from the regular season stands up against their playoff performance to date. Keep in mind that the ratings can fluctuate quite a bit until each player gets 15-20 games under their belt. Still, it's an indication of overall play on a game-by-game basis.
Teams are broken down by Team Overall, by player, by position, by line or pairing and by overall forwards, defense or goalie.
I've already made predictions in the Experts Panel, so the ones I make below might be different after writing this.
Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="542" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-1024x542.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82833" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-200x106.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-300x159.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-400x212.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-600x318.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-768x407.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-800x424.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1-1024x542.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-1.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="544" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-1024x544.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82834" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-200x106.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-300x159.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-400x213.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-600x319.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-768x408.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-800x425.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2-1024x544.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-2.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The Canucks lost one of their biggest potential advantages with the injury to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> and it is probably fair to say that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/stuart-skinner">Stuart Skinner</a> has an advantage over <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arturs-silovs">Arturs Silovs</a> or Casey DeSmith in goal.
The Canucks are perhaps stronger down the middle when the game gets into the third and fourth lines and the Canucks definitely have the stronger third line.
The Oilers top two lines should outscore the Canucks top two lines. If the Canucks get into penalty trouble, this series will be over in four or five games.
On defense, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinn-hughes">Quinn Hughes</a> is the wildcard who could swing this in favor of the Canucks. He should have a little more time to move or carry the puck than he did in the series against Nashville. I just can't envision <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Myers">Tyler Myers</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ian-Cole">Ian Cole</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carson-soucy">Carson Soucy</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Zadorov">Nikita Zadorov</a> not taking penalties against <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a> as they try to contain them on the rush.
If the Canucks somehow keep this series even after four games and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> is 100% healthy, this could swing in the Canucks favor.
I'm going Oilers in five.
Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="541" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-1024x541.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82835" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-200x106.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-300x158.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-400x211.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-600x317.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-768x406.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-800x422.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3-1024x541.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-3.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="544" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-1024x544.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82836" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-200x106.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-300x159.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-400x213.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-600x319.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-768x408.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-800x425.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4-1024x544.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-4.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Colorado is gunning on all cylinders after defeating Winnipeg in five games in round one. They have improved their overall depth in the forwards quite substantially over 2022-2023 and might get <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonathan-Drouin">Jonathan Drouin</a> back at some point in this series.
Most thought that the Jets would have a huge advantage in net with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a> against <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexandar-georgiev">Alexandar Georgiev</a>, but the Avalanche averaged five goals in each game against Hellebuyck and Georgiev came out on top. Dallas will have a hard time keeping this team off of the scoresheet.
In the forwards, Dallas can't match the top end talent of the Avalanche but they do have a little more depth at center ice and on the third line. I've said this about the Stars before, that they have three first lines and one fourth line. They have the flexibility to rely on any of three lines in any game, whereas Colorado can't say the same.
On defense, Cale Makar stands out but the Stars have Miro Heiskanen to match to a degree. Heiskanen can't take over a game like Makar can, but he defends a little better. If either team can exploit the third pairing on the opposition, this could be fairly high scoring. I'd give the small edge to Colorado, here but it's very close.
In goal, Oettinger is rounding out his game to the level it was during the regular season of 2022-2023 and could be the difference maker. It didn't help out the probable Vezina winner in round one, but Oettinger will need to be great. The Avalanche will need average goaltending or better from Georgiev.
I'm going Colorado in six.
Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="546" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-1024x546.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82837" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-200x107.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-300x160.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-400x213.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-600x320.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-768x410.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-800x427.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5-1024x546.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-5.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="546" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-1024x546.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82838" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-200x107.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-300x160.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-400x213.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-600x320.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-768x410.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-800x427.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6-1024x546.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-6.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Florida has the overall advantage in this series with more top-end talent in the forwards and a deeper, more talented defense.
Without <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Bennett">Sam Bennett</a> in the lineup, Boston has the advantage down the middle as well as a small advantage in goal with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jeremy-Swayman">Jeremy Swayman</a> over <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sergei-Bobrovsky">Sergei Bobrovsky</a>.
Boston squeaked out the series against Toronto with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> less than 100% and missing two games as well as <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a> missing the first three games. The Bruins will need to keep <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Reinhart">Sam Reinhart</a>, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-tkachuk">Matthew Tkachuk</a> in check.
The Panthers have <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Aaron-Ekblad">Aaron Ekblad</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-montour">Brandon Montour</a> trending up as they are finding their 'A' game leading up to and in the first round of the playoffs.
I'm going with Florida in six.
Carolina Hurricanes vs NY Rangers
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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="546" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-1024x546.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82840" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-200x107.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-300x160.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-400x213.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-600x320.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-768x410.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-800x427.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8-1024x546.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-8.png 1125w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
This could be one the tightest series, as these teams match up razor thin.
Carolina is missing <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brett-pesce">Brett Pesce</a> on defense and will need <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tony-deangelo">Tony DeAngelo</a> to play much better than he did in the regular season. The Rangers have a small advantage on defense.
In the forwards, Vincent Trocheck and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mika-Zibanejad">Mika Zibanejad</a> are one of the best one-two punches down the middle in the NHL and Carolina lacks a little of the offensive punch that the Rangers do at center. Carolina has a bit of an advantage with a better third and fourth line especially if they get contributions from Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
In the crease, both teams start the series even with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/igor-shesterkin">Igor Shesterkin</a> up against <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Frederik-Andersen">Frederik Andersen</a>. I might give a slight nod to Shesterkin here.
Rangers in six. New York won game one 4-3. 
Players elevating their games in the playoffs
I don't usually like to use my player game ratings for anything under 15-20 games during the regular season, but in the playoffs, players don't have the time afforded to them to not elevate their games and not every player is capable of doing just that.
We are going to go through each playoff team and see which player or players were able to raise their level of play from the regular season in the first round. Conversely, we will look at the players who struggled compared to their regular season.
If players aren't listed below, it is because they were able to match what they did in the regular season for the most part.
Only skaters are listed and this is for the first-round games only, so doesn't include the NY Rangers and Carolina game in the second round, which was on Sunday afternoon.
Boston Bruins
No surprise here as <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brad-Marchand">Brad Marchand</a> raised his game rating from 6.63 in the regular season to 6.83 in the seven games against Toronto. Others elevating their games were Jake DeBrusk (6.49 to 6.67), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Hampus-Lindholm">Hampus Lindholm</a> (6.4 to 6.53) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/trent-frederic">Trent Frederic</a> (6.47 to 6.59).
On the flip side, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Pastrnak">David Pastrnak</a> struggled but came up with the big OT winner in game seven going from 7.0 to 6.72. Others struggling were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-zacha">Pavel Zacha</a> (6.6 to 6.34) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Kevin-Shattenkirk">Kevin Shattenkirk</a> (6.41 to 6.17).
Carolina Hurricanes
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/seth-jarvis">Seth Jarvis</a> saw his ratings go from 6.65 to 6.95 as he had seven points in five games. He was followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brady-skjei">Brady Skjei</a> (6.56 to 6.77), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-drury">Jack Drury</a> (6.36 to 6.53), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evgeny-Kuznetsov">Evgeny Kuznetsov</a> (6.35 to 6.51) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jordan-Staal">Jordan Staal</a> (6.44 to 6.55).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> had the biggest fall off from the regular season going from 6.85 to 6.53. He was followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sebastian-aho/CAR">Sebastian Aho</a> (6.81 to 6.59) and Jaccob Slavin (6.5 to 6.42).
Colorado Avalanche
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/artturi-lehkonen">Artturi Lehkonen</a> as his ratings jump considerably from 6.59 to 7.17. Anything over seven is very hard to maintain as there were only five players who did so during the regular season. He was joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/josh-manson">Josh Manson</a> (6.48 to 6.89), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-mittelstadt">Casey Mittelstadt</a> (6.52 to 6.9), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Valeri-Nichushkin">Valeri Nichushkin</a> (6.74 to 7.11), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a> (6.9 to 7.23), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mikko-Rantanen">Mikko Rantanen</a> (6.92 to 7.25), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ross-colton">Ross Colton</a> (6.49 to 6.7) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/devon-toews">Devon Toews</a> (6.57 to 6.72).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> kept pace with his incredible regular season going from 7.27 to 7.33 in the playoffs after five games.
The only players on the other side, were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sean-walker">Sean Walker</a> (6.48 to 6.3), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jack-Johnson">Jack Johnson</a> (6.29 to 6.16) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-duhaime">Brandon Duhaime</a> (6.28 to 6.2)
Dallas Stars
The pressure of the playoffs was not too big for 20-year-old <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/wyatt-johnston">Wyatt Johnston</a> as he saw his ratings go from 6.65 to 6.86. He was alone in this regard on this roster, but it was enough for the Stars to get by Vegas.
Players feeling the pressure were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a> (6.67 to 6.23), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-lundkvist">Nils Lundkvist</a> (6.32 to 6.03), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/roope-hintz">Roope Hintz</a> (6.62 to 6.36), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> (6.61 to 6.37) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thomas-harley">Thomas Harley</a> (6.58 to 6.44). For context on a player like Harley who I've included here, his 6.58 rating is very much above average while his 6.44 rating puts him just slightly above average or an average defender).
Edmonton Oilers
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a> is a playoff performer and has seen his rating go from 6.82 to 7.49. He is joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/evan-bouchard">Evan Bouchard</a> (6.79 to 7.22), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/zach-hyman">Zach Hyman</a> (6.82 to 7.22) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a> (7.14 to 7.36).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Corey-Perry">Corey Perry</a> has gone from 6.34 to 6.12 and is joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mattias-Ekholm">Mattias Ekholm</a> (6.61 to 6.43), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ryan-mcleod">Ryan McLeod</a> (6.36 to 6.18), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Adam-Henrique">Adam Henrique</a> (6.57 to 6.41) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/warren%20foegele">Warren Foegele</a> (6.48 to 6.36).
Florida Panthers
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carter-verhaeghe">Carter Verhaeghe</a> was on fire seeing his rating shoot up from 6.73 to 7.32. He was followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-tkachuk">Matthew Tkachuk</a> (6.85 to 7.27), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-montour">Brandon Montour</a> (6.55 to 6.82), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/steven-lorentz">Steven Lorentz</a> (6.18 to 6.42), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/niko-mikkola">Niko Mikkola</a> (6.38 to 6.6), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/gustav-forsling">Gustav Forsling</a> (6.57 to 6.78) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Aaron-Ekblad">Aaron Ekblad</a> (6.49 to 6.65). If the Panthers defense continues to play at this level Boston is in trouble.
Struggling Panthers were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nick-cousins">Nick Cousins</a> (6.33 to 6.18), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dmitry-kulikov">Dmitry Kulikov</a> (6.35 to 6.22) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vladimir-Tarasenko">Vladimir Tarasenko</a> (6.55 to 6.43).
Los Angeles Kings
There were some Kings who really elevated their games in the five-game series loss to Edmonton. It just wasn't the difference maker the Kings needed. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-laferriere">Alex Laferriere</a> had a good series raising his rating from 6.33 to 6.55 and he was joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mikey-anderson">Mikey Anderson</a> (6.41 to 6.63) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/andreas-englund">Andreas Englund</a> (6.24 to 6.36).
Some of the struggling players for the Kings were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carl-grundstrom">Carl Grundstrom</a> (6.36 to 6.14), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/trevor-moore">Trevor Moore</a> (6.64 to 6.45), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/viktor-arvidsson">Viktor Arvidsson</a> (6.73 to 6.55), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vladislav-gavrikov">Vladislav Gavrikov</a> (6.4 to 6.23) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kevin-fiala">Kevin Fiala</a> (6.64 to 6.56).
Nashville Predators
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexandre-carrier">Alexandre Carrier</a> had the highest ratings increase on the Predators going from 6.38 to 6.58, followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jason-Zucker">Jason Zucker</a> (6.43 to 6.58).
On the negative side of things were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Roman-Josi">Roman Josi</a> who saw his rating go from 6.87 to 6.55, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tommy-novak">Tommy Novak</a> (6.44 to 6.16), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Gustav-Nyquist">Gustav Nyquist</a> (6.59 to 6.35), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-O-Reilly">Ryan O'Reilly</a> (6.67 to 6.48), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kiefer-sherwood">Kiefer Sherwood</a> (6.45 to 6.29) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cole-smith">Cole Smith</a> (6.36 to 6.2).
NY Islanders
The Islanders only had a few players play above their regular season selves. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Kyle-Palmieri">Kyle Palmieri</a> went from 6.56 to 6.69, followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Anders-Lee">Anders Lee</a> (6.51 to 6.63) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/adam-pelech">Adam Pelech</a> (6.4 to 6.51).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-dobson">Noah Dobson</a> wasn't the same player seeing his rating plummet from 6.76 to 6.31. He was joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Cal-Clutterbuck">Cal Clutterbuck</a> (6.31 to 6.13) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/hudson-fasching">Hudson Fasching</a> (6.28 to 6.16).
NY Rangers
For some players, the playoffs can be an opportunity to redeem a less than stellar regular season. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/barclay-goodrow">Barclay Goodrow</a> is a prime example of that seeing his rating go from 6.29 to 6.66. He was joined by Mika Zibanejad (6.72 to 7.08), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jacob-Trouba">Jacob Trouba</a> (6.58 to 6.9), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vincent-Trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a> (6.84 to 7.04), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-roslovic">Jack Roslovic</a> (6.43 to 6.62), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jimmy-vesey">Jimmy Vesey</a> (6.31 to 6.43), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a> (6.56 to 6.66) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/hudson-fasching">Matt Rempe</a> (6.22 to 6.31).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Artemi-Panarin">Artemi Panarin</a> saw his rating go from 6.94 to 6.6, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alexander-Wennberg">Alex Wennberg</a> (6.39 to 6.17), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ryan-lindgren">Ryan Lindgren</a> (6.35 to 6.19), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/braden-schneider">Braden Schneider</a> (6.38 to 6.23), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Kreider">Chris Kreider</a> (6.71 to 6.6) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/adam-fox">Adam Fox</a> (6.74 to 6.64) saw some drop offs as well, but keep in mind this was just a four game series over Washington.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning saw good performances from Victor Hedman (6.71 to 7.01), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Steven-Stamkos">Steven Stamkos</a> (6.78 to 6.94), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nicholas-paul">Nicholas Paul</a> (6.5 to 6.59) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/erik-cernak">Erik Cernak</a> (6.36 to 6.45).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Kucherov">Nikita Kucherov</a> was still very good but just not regular season good as he saw his rating go from 7.09 to 6.81. He was followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/michael-eyssimont">Michael Eyssimont</a> (6.37 to 6.28) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Anthony-Duclair">Anthony Duclair</a> (6.44 to 6.37) on smaller scales.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Although it was disappointing overall for the Maple Leafs, they did see some good performances from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-knies">Matthew Knies</a> (6.4 to 6.54), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joel-edmundson">Joel Edmundson</a> (6.26 to 6.38), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tyler-bertuzzi">Tyler Bertuzzi</a> (6.48 to 6.6), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-lyubushkin">Ilya Lyubushkin</a> (6.34 to 6.45) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Max-Domi">Max Domi</a> (6.45 to 6.55).
It was impressive to see <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> go from 7.14 to 6.91. Even at not close to 100% he was still able to play at a very high level.
The villains were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a> (6.79 to 6.38), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timothy-liljegren">Timothy Liljegren</a> (6.48 to 6.17), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nicholas-robertson">Nicholas Robertson</a> (6.4 to 6.19), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pontus-holmberg">Pontus Holmberg</a> (6.33 to 6.16), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Calle-Jarnkrok">Calle Jarnkrok</a> (6.4 to 6.24), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-mccabe">Jake McCabe</a> (6.49 to 6.35), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Tavares">John Tavares</a> (6.79 to 6.67) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Morgan-Rielly">Morgan Rielly</a> (6.73 to 6.62).
Vancouver Canucks
It's not surprising when a team who doesn't score much in a six-game series to have many players who surpassed their rating from the regular season.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Zadorov">Nikita Zadorov</a> saw his rating go from 6.35 to 6.57, with the only other players being <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-boeser">Brock Boeser</a> (6.65 to 6.72), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dakota-joshua">Dakota Joshua</a> (6.51 to 6.55), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pius-suter">Pius Suter</a> (6.4 to 6.43) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Elias-Lindholm">Elias Lindholm</a> (6.59 to 6.61).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-hronek">Filip Hronek</a> was surprisingly the worst Canuck on the other end of things going from 6.54 to 6.16. He was followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/elias-pettersson">Elias Pettersson</a> (6.81 to 6.46), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-hoglander">Nils Hoglander</a> (6.39 to 6.07), Ilya Mikheyev (6.37 to 6.11), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinn-hughes">Quinn Hughes</a> (6.86 to 6.63) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sam-lafferty">Sam Lafferty</a> (6.33 to 6.14).
Vegas Golden Knights
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brayden-McNabb">Brayden McNabb</a> has gone from a rating of 6.49 to 6.79 and is followed by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ivan-barbashev">Ivan Barbashev</a> (6.47 to 6.59), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-carrier">William Carrier</a> (6.34 to 6.42) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Noah-Hanifin">Noah Hanifin</a> (6.57 to 6.64).
Players struggling for Vegas were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/William-Karlsson">William Karlsson</a> (6.7 to 6.36), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/shea-theodore">Shea Theodore</a> (6.69 to 6.38), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alec-Martinez">Alec Martinez</a> (6.49 to 6.25), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anthony-mantha">Anthony Mantha</a> (6.43 to 6.19), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nicolas-roy">Nicolas Roy</a> (6.49 to 6.26), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/chandler-stephenson">Chandler Stephenson</a> (6.48 to 6.26), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/zach-whitecloud">Zach Whitecloud</a> (6.36 to 6.15), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Stone">Mark Stone</a> (6.63 to 6.43). <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tomas-Hertl">Tomas Hertl</a> (6.63 to 6.46) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Pietrangelo">Alex Pietrangelo</a> (6.61 to 6.44). This is probably what cost them the series as some of these players didn't have enough runway to find their form.
Washington Capitals
It is no surprise to see <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tom-Wilson">Tom Wilson</a> near the top of this list for the Capitals as he went from 6.55 to 6.76 but he was second to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-fehervary">Martin Fehervary</a> who went from 6.39 to 6.78 in four games. These two were joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/aliaksei-protas">Aliaksei Protas</a> (6.34 to 6.48) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/hendrix-lapierre">Hendrix Lapierre</a> (6.33 to 6.45).
It was sad to see <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Ovechkin">Alex Ovechkin</a> on the other side of the ledger as he went from 6.7 to 6.19. Others were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sonny-milano">Sonny Milano</a> (6.32 to 6.07), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/T.J.-Oshie">T.J. Oshie</a> (6.47 to 6.25) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Max-Pacioretty">Max Pacioretty</a> (6.44 to 6.24).
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets missed <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brenden-Dillon">Brenden Dillon</a> who was injured after three games and saw his rating go from 6.42 to 6.71 in those games. Others performing well in the five-game loss to Colorado were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Scheifele">Mark Scheifele</a> (6.71 to 6.79) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kyle-connor">Kyle Connor</a> (6.7 to 6.76).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Toffoli">Tyler Toffoli</a> struggled going from 6.57 to 6.36 and was joined by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikolaj-Ehlers">Nikolaj Ehlers</a> (6.62 to 6.46), Dylan DeMelo (6.47 to 6.32), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vladislav-Namestnikov">Vladislav Namestnikov</a> (6.41 to 6.26), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-samberg">Dylan Samberg</a> (6.33 to 6.2) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sean-Monahan">Sean Monahan</a> (6.57 to 6.47).
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at, please message or follow me on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/dobberhockey">Twitter</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/gampbler15">@gampbler15</a>.
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<title>Experts Panel: 2023-24 Playoff Round 2 Predictions</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/experts-panel-2023-24-playoff-round-2-predictions/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/experts-panel-2023-24-playoff-round-2-predictions/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2024 03:46:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[The Dobotomy]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82829</guid>
<description><![CDATA[You could trust the panel with your first-round picks this season, as they collectively went 7-for-8 in picking a winner. The only series the majority of Dobber writers got wrong was Boston over Toronto, which could have possibly gone either way because it went to overtime in Game 7. This was not the year that [...]]]></description>
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You could trust the panel with your first-round picks this season, as they collectively went 7-for-8 in picking a winner. The only series the majority of Dobber writers got wrong was Boston over Toronto, which could have possibly gone either way because it went to overtime in Game 7.
This was not the year that a random coin toss had better results than writers' picks. The lack of major upsets in the first round probably had something to do with it. All of the winning teams registered at least 104 points during the regular season. As well, eight of the top nine teams in the overall standings have advanced to the second round (Winnipeg is the only exception).
Congratulations are in order for Mario Prata, who correctly picked all eight series in the first round! Stas Pupkov and yours truly were right behind with seven correct picks, while numerous other writers finished with six correct picks.   
The panel's lifetime record is now 137-87 when it comes to postseason predictions.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img width="975" height="686" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82830" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-200x141.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-300x211.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-400x281.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-600x422.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-768x540.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-800x563.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image.png 975w" sizes="(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px" /></figure>
For the coin toss, heads was the higher-seeded team. The default is seven games for each coin toss pick, as well as for any writers who replied only with series winners. The coin toss results aren't counted among the aggregate results – they are just there to embarrass any of our writers if needed.
Note that the number of games is the average number of games picked by the panel and does not factor in who will win the series.
Also note that the picks for the Rangers/Hurricanes series were made before Sunday's Game 1. We could not release this article until the Stars/Golden Knights had been completed on Sunday evening.
Strong Favorites
All but one writer picked the Panthers to advance past the Bruins, all but three writers picked the Oilers to knock out the Canucks, and all but four writers picked the Hurricanes to defeat the Rangers. You can probably figure out reasons for that. If we can provide reasons to pick the underdogs, how about the following:
Boston and Florida were separated by only one point during the regular season. As well, the Bruins won all four of the head-to-head matches (two of the wins came in overtime). Don't forget that the Bruins will also be looking for revenge after the Panthers' surprising series win last season after the Bruins took a 3-1 series lead.
Vancouver finished five points ahead of Edmonton while also winning all four of their head-to-head matches. Granted, three of those games were early in the season before the Oilers made their coaching change, while the Oilers were without <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a> for the other game. In other words, don't expect the Canucks to sweep this series.
The Rangers took Game 1 of their series, a game that was played before Game 7 of the Dallas/Vegas series. Since you might be curious by now how their season series went, it was 2-1 for the Rangers.
Too Close to Call
A total of 10 writers picked the Stars, while seven writers picked the Avalanche. This series of Central Division powers might be the most likely to go seven games, as the panel was basically split between picking this series to finish in six and seven games.
About the Panel
Dobber launched this website in 2005 after he was the fantasy hockey columnist for The Hockey News website, The Fantasy Sports Network, and a contributor to The Forecaster. DobberHockey has since grown into the Dobber Sports Network and has work can be found across the internet.
Ian Gooding is the managing editor of DobberHockey and a regular writer on the daily Ramblings beat, also providing monthly Top 100 Roto Rankings. He has also contributed to many other sites, including Sportsnet, Today's Slapshot, Kukla's Korner, and fantasyhockey.com.
Mike Clifford is an associate editor of DobberHockey, writing the Ramblings multiple times per week. He also covers DFS for Stokastic and writes for EP Rinkside.
Alex MacLean is an associate editor and writes the Ramblings once a week. He was previously the author of the Capped column and also contributes salary cap league rankings.
Brennan DeSouza is the latest writer to join the editing team, as he now also writes the Ramblings once a week. He had previously covered Injury Ward, Eastern Edge, and Lining Up.
Mario Prata is the manager of special projects and marketing for Dobber Sports. He is also a co-founder of the famous The Sports Forecaster magazine.
Eric Daoust manages our valued <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/">Frozen Pool</a> section.
Rick Roos authors the weekly Roos Let Loose column every Wednesday, covering a variety of topics. He is the former Cage Match writer for Dobber Hockey.
Flip Livingstone started as the Saturday game picks writer and is now taking on Eastern Edge and the Top 10 list as well. He is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Postmedia, Hockey Night in Canada, and the CBC.
Michael Amato is the <a href="https://goaliepost.com ">Goalie Post</a> editor who provides the latest <a href="https://goaliepost.com ">starting goalie</a> information and writes the Goalie Ramblings. He also covers fantasy hockey for Sportsnet and is the co-host of the Sleepers & Keepers podcast for The Hockey News. 
Grant Campbell keeps an eye on everything Western Conference in the Wild West column every Monday.
Chris Kane writes the <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profile.php">Frozen Tools</a><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com"></a> Forensics column on Fridays, emphasizing what he finds on <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profile.php">Frozen Tools</a>.
Ben Gehrels pens the weekly prospect column The Journey that can be found here every Saturday. He is also an associate editor at Dobber Prospects.
Andrew Santillo checks out what’s coming down the pipe <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_planner.php">schedule</a>-wise with the Looking Ahead column every Friday, as well as salary cap column Capped on Thursdays. He has also contributed to <a href="https://goaliepost.com ">Goalie Post</a>.
Peter Ryell provides you with what you need to know about line combinations in Lining Up.
Brad Hayward provides tons of tips to help you win your daily fantasy leagues on Saturdays.
Ryan Brudner shares his expertise of multicategory leagues in the Geek of the Week column every Sunday. He has also contributed to GoaliePost.
Blake Creamer brings his medical knowledge and sense of humor to Injury Ward every Wednesday. He also hosts the Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast.
Stas Pupkov dives deep into <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_report.php?pos=Skaters&team=ALL&rookie=All&mingp=0&period=2019-2020%3AR&startdate=&enddate=&report=Advanced+Stats&reportdata_length=30">advanced stats</a> with Analytics Advantage, a new column for the 2023-24 season.
Enjoy the playoffs, folks!
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<title>21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/21-fantasy-hockey-rambles-272/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/21-fantasy-hockey-rambles-272/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dobber Sports]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sun, 05 May 2024 18:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82816</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's ‘Daily Ramblings’. Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber — 1. The real story in Vancouver’s Game 6 series clincher was the goalies. Arturs Silovs was flawless in net, stopping all [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
—
1. The real story in Vancouver's Game 6 series clincher was the goalies. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arturs-silovs">Arturs Silovs</a> was flawless in net, stopping all 28 shots he faced to become the youngest goalie in Canucks history (age 23) to post a shutout. Silovs was playing in just his third career playoff game. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/juuse-saros">Juuse Saros</a> had an impressive game himself, stopping 28 of 29 shots he faced. After a disastrous third period and overtime in Game 4, Saros was his best in Games 5 and 6 in allowing just one goal in each game.
The injury to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> after Game 1 had Canucks fans panicking, while the minor injury to backup <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-desmith">Casey DeSmith</a> raised the temperature even more. Silovs has just nine games of regular-season NHL experience, but he has some recent big-game experience in leading Latvia to a bronze medal in last year’s World Hockey Championship while being named tournament MVP. Unexpected heroes can appear from the playoffs, and this season Silovs is emerging as one of those guys. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
2. It’s important to determine whether playoff success can lead to fantasy success the following season and beyond, because that’s sometimes not the case. DeSmith is a UFA after the season, so it’s entirely possible that Silovs moves into the backup role in Vancouver next season. His AHL numbers (2.74 GAA, .907 SV%) did regress a little bit from last season, but he is demonstrating that he has what it takes to stick in the NHL. With Demko now an injury risk with games missed both this season and last, the Canucks have to seriously think about giving him more nights off. Spending big money on a backup goalie isn’t an option if the Canucks are to stay competitive, so Silovs’ emergence in these playoffs couldn’t come at a better time. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
3. The coaches in that Game 6 (Rick Tocchet and Andrew Brunette) were two of the three finalists for the Jack Adams Trophy for top coach. In fairness to Rick Bowness, whose Jets team made vast improvements this season, I think Tocchet and Brunette should be the top two candidates. Tocchet has not only met the Canucks’ goal of making the playoffs this season, he also had them in the mix for the Presidents’ Trophy. Meanwhile, Brunette has taken a rather ordinary (on paper) Predators group into the playoffs where they seem to buy into his system. I’ve seen very few passengers on this Nashville roster during their first-round series. Kudos to them on a hard-fought series.
An argument could be made for Kris Knoblauch to be a Jack Adams finalist. The Oilers’ season seemed to completely turn around when he was hired as head coach. The counterargument to that could be that the Oilers finally started to perform as expected after their woeful start, considering that they were a preseason favorite to win the Stanley Cup. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
4. Who do I like to win the Canucks/Oilers series? I’ll post my pick with the other writers on Sunday, as I haven’t completely made up my mind as I write this. The Canucks may have a psychological edge, having won all four games against the Oilers this season. Three of those wins were early in the season before the Oilers made their coaching change, and it’s understood that the Oilers are a different team now. In addition, the Oilers will have a bit more rest while we don’t really know when Demko will return and how Silovs will hold up against <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a>, and company. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
5. Since being acquired by Vegas, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Noah-Hanifin">Noah Hanifin</a> has 12 points in 19 regular-season games and five points in six playoff games. He was also installed on the top power play late in the season and has remained in that role through the playoffs, while both <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/shea-theodore">Shea Theodore</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Pietrangelo">Alex Pietrangelo</a> have manned the second unit. That’s shown in the point totals for these defensemen in the playoffs. Three of Hanifin’s points during the playoffs have been with the man advantage, while Pietrangelo has just one total point in the series and Theodore has yet to register a single point in the series.
Although things could change, Hanifin on the Golden Knights’ top power play could be something to remember for next season’s drafts. Vegas is all about buying the shiny new toy, which is why they signed Pietrangelo in the first place a few years ago. Now it’s Hanifin, whose eight-year contract with a cap hit of over $7 million kicks in next season, which could mean his days of sub-50% power-play usage could be over. In other words, we could see Hanifin reach a whole new level in Vegas. Dobber, if you’re reading this, can you adjust his upside to beyond 55 points? (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
6. Since returning from a lacerated spleen (just in time for the playoffs!), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Stone">Mark Stone</a> has scored three goals in six games. Stone is still an effective player, but he has clearly earned the title of <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-dobotomy/dobbers-band-aid-boys-2019-edition/">Band-Aid Boy</a>. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 45 games played, making him a high-risk option in fantasy leagues. When projecting his stats for next season, you need to knock off at least 20 games. That’s just because he still might be dealing with a back ailment, while another extended LTIR stay for whatever is also a factor. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
7. Remember when <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a> was an exceptional playoff performer? Yeah. He’s been held without a point after the first six games of the Stars-Golden Knights – Game 7 today. It’s a small sample against one team, but maybe we’re finally starting to see a decline from the 39-year-old Pavelski. His scoring total fell from 77 points last season to 67 points this season. He’s also a UFA at the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see whether Dallas prioritizes re-signing him over someone like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Tanev">Chris Tanev</a>. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/">may4</a>)
8. Even though the Rangers finished three points ahead of the Hurricanes, my gut tells me that Carolina should be viewed as the slight favorite in this series. That being said, I’m having a hard time determining where each team would have a strong advantage over the other. Maybe the Rangers have a bit more star power, but Carolina was already a high-octane system before loading up at the trade deadline with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evgeny-Kuznetsov">Evgeny Kuznetsov</a>.
That’s the great thing about this season, where there doesn’t seem to be any clear-cut favorite. After the Rangers and Hurricanes seemed to have little trouble with their first-round opponents, they appear to be a great match for each other. Let’s go seven games in this one, shall we? (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">may3</a>)
9. The NHL has been announcing its three finalists for each major award. On Thursday, the Masterton Trophy finalists were revealed: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/oliver-kylington">Oliver Kylington</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Frederik-Andersen">Frederik Andersen</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-ingram">Connor Ingram</a>. These three are all deserving finalists, given the challenges they have faced. I won’t focus on what those challenges were, who should win, or if anyone excluded faced bigger challenges. Instead, I’ll discuss the on-ice accomplishments of the two goalies this season. Both were effective for fantasy teams at times, but for different reasons.
Andersen was a prime example of how stashing a player on IR can be extremely beneficial. He played in just six games before being sidelined with a blood-clotting issue, which forced him out of the lineup until March. If you were able to hold onto him for that long or add him from the waiver wire, you were handsomely rewarded – perhaps even during your fantasy playoffs. After his return, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 record with a 1.30 GAA and .951 SV%. He allowed over two goals in a game just once over the 10-game span following his return.
Given Andersen’s success following his return and in the playoffs (4-0-1, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV% so far), Andersen’s stock for next season is on the rise. With another season under contract in Carolina, Andersen should be in the discussion as a top-10 goalie in next season’s fantasy drafts. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pyotr-kochetkov">Pyotr Kochetkov</a> could force the workload into more of a timeshare, although a decreased workload might be beneficial for the 34-year-old Andersen anyway. His days as a 60+ game starter in Toronto have passed. A more reasonable expectation might be 50 games. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">may3</a>)
10. Meanwhile, Ingram was a Zero G waiver-wire target during the season. Drafted in just 3 percent of Yahoo leagues, Ingram rose to prominence during the middle of the season, posting five shutouts between November 25 and January 13. He finished tied with three other goalies for the league lead in shutouts with 6 SO. Ingram couldn’t maintain his momentum of a strong first half, finishing with a 3.00+ GAA and 41% quality start percentage during the second half. He at least played well enough to wrestle the starting job away from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/karel-vejmelka">Karel Vejmelka</a>, which made him rosterable in many 2+ goalie formats.
The new ownership for the now-Utah franchise could bolster the team with player depth and other resources that weren’t available to them in Arizona. A new-look roster, particularly on defense where most players are set to become UFAs or RFAs, could benefit Ingram and Vejmelka next season. Keep an eye on what roster moves the Utah hockey club makes during the offseason. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">may3</a>)
11. The finalists for the Norris Trophy were announced on Wednesday and without much surprise, they are <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Roman-Josi">Roman Josi</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinn-hughes">Quinn Hughes</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a>. It is quite the trio of defencemen who all have some argument to being the winner: Josi was probably the best defenceman in the league after the Christmas break, Makar led the league in points per game by a blue liner, and Hughes was the best defenceman up until Christmas and was still excellent thereafter.
Just my two cents but Hughes should win this. He was a huge reason for Vancouver’s turnaround in the regular season and though his best hockey was the first 30 games of the yea, the team controlled 59% of both expected goals and actual goals at 5-on-5 with him on the ice after the Christmas break. Just a superlative season from start to finish. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">may2</a>)
12. This year’s Calder finalists are <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-bedard">Connor Bedard</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-faber">Brock Faber</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/luke-hughes">Luke Hughes</a>. All three are deserving of the recognition here, and there were many very deserving candidates including <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pyotr-kochetkov">Pyotr Kochetkov</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-zary">Connor Zary</a>, and others.
Next seasons for each are going to be fun to watch. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-bedard">Connor Bedard</a> might have a little more support on offence with a healthy <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Taylor-Hall">Taylor Hall</a>, and maybe one or two of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/lukas-reichel">Lukas Reichel</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/oliver-moore">Oliver Moore</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/frank-nazar">Frank Nazar</a> making the team full-time next year. Bedard scored at a 74-point clip this past year, and his best comparable at this point might actually be <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> and not <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a>. Matthews put up 69 points in his rookie season, before putting up seven straight point-per-game seasons between then and now, culminating in his recent 69-goal campaign. McDavid had an 87-point-pace in his first year, and it was much more assist heavy than Matthews. With Bedard’s shot, we have to think that his goal to assist ratio is going to get closer to even over the next few years, with a line next year that might look something like 35G, 45A, and 80 Pts in a full season. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/01/ramblings-stamkos-situation-calder-finalists-canes-advance-leafs-live-on-more-may-1/">may1</a>)
13. For Hughes and Faber, the uncertainty of them retaining top power play duties all season is what confounds any projections for them. They both posted 47-point seasons that saw multiple defencemen from their teams go down with long-term injuries. The Devils lost <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Dougie-Hamilton">Dougie Hamilton</a> early and dealt with many injuries to the rest of the D-core, also seeing <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/simon-nemec">Simon Nemec</a> get some runs as well. Hamilton, Hughes, and Nemec could all be viable top-power play options in future years, so there’s no guarantee that Luke gets the top unit time with his brother <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-hughes">Jack Hughes</a>.
In Minnesota, the Wild lost <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonas-Brodin">Jonas Brodin</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jared-Spurgeon">Jared Spurgeon</a> with severe injuries. Faber’s competition for power play time evaporated by mid-season, as Spurgeon missed the second half of the year, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/calen-addison">Calen Addison</a> was shipped to San Jose. With both Faber and Spurgeon healthy for next year (on top of whoever else may be added) it’s also unclear how much opportunity Faber will receive as a sophomore.
Odds are that Hughes will score more points by virtue of being a more offence-focused defenceman, but Faber having less competition works in his favour as well. The sophomore slump is a real thing, but a floor of 40 points is a safe expectation of these two for us to take into drafts next fall. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/01/ramblings-stamkos-situation-calder-finalists-canes-advance-leafs-live-on-more-may-1/">may1</a>)
14. The finalists for the Vezina Trophy were announced on Monday. In no particular order, Vancouver’s <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a>, Winnipeg’s <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a>, and Florida’s <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sergei-Bobrovsky">Sergei Bobrovsky</a> were all voted as the top-3 goalies this season. The winner will be announced at the NHL Awards at the end of June.
This is Demko’s first time finishing in the top-3 for the goalie of the year and he’s been tremendous basically since returning from injury in February of 2023.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a> is a Vezina finalist for the fourth time in his career and his second time in three years, having won it in 2019-20.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sergei-Bobrovsky">Sergei Bobrovsky</a> won the trophy twice with Columbus – 2012-13 and 2016-17 – though those were the only times he finished inside the top-6 for Vezina voting, let alone top-3. It was a nice rebound year from him after a subpar regular season (but great postseason) last year. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/30/ramblings-reviewing-columbuss-season-including-gaudreau-fantilli-voronkov-jiricek-and-more-april-30/">Apr30</a>)
15. The one series that I was really wrong about was the Colorado/Winnipeg series. I thought this one would go seven games with an underrated Winnipeg team pulling it out with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a> coming up huge in net. Instead, the Jets crashed in five games, and Hellebuyck had a series to forget (<a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1786067732124913808">in spite of him saying otherwise</a>). Hellebuyck allowed at least four goals in each of the five games, finishing the series with a very un-Vezina-like 5.01 GAA and .870 SV%.
On one hand, I wouldn’t put much stock into this fantasy-wise, as this was a five-game stretch against one opponent. That opponent had two of the league’s top-10 point getters in <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mikko-Rantanen">Mikko Rantanen</a>, as well as 90-point scoring defenseman <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a>. Goals-against average in particular is a function of the defensive play of the team in front of him, so from a pure hockey standpoint I’m not suggesting the poor numbers are all Hellebuyck’s fault. I didn’t watch a ton of this series, but it sounds like the Jets got pulled away from their structured approach and were drawn into a run-and-gun by the Avalanche.
On the other hand, stay away from picking Hellebuyck too early in next season’s drafts. I’m not suggesting Hellebuyck will be a bust, but goalies are usually less of a sure thing than players. Short stretches of bad play that turn into major slumps can really hurt your team. He will probably be a top-5 drafted goalie again, as I don’t see any other reason to be convinced otherwise. For example, I would draft him ahead of someone like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-sorokin">Ilya Sorokin</a>. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">may3</a>)
16. A series I was a little bit wrong about was the Edmonton/Los Angeles series. I picked Edmonton like just about everyone else, but I thought the Kings would put up a bit more of a fight and take the series to seven games. There’s lots of blame to go around with the Kings, particularly with how <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Cam-Talbot">Cam Talbot</a> did not come through for them. Yet <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pierre-luc-dubois">Pierre-Luc Dubois</a> stands out as a player who followed up a bust-level regular season with an even more disappointing postseason (1 PT in 5 GP).
The fact that a buyout is even being brought up as a possibility after just one season explains how poorly PLD’s tenure in LA has gone after just one season. Yet depending on when the Stanley Cup is awarded, he may qualify for a 1/3 buyout, which means considerable savings for the Kings if they go that route because of when he turns 26. Crazy talk, or is it?
From a pure hockey standpoint, the Kings might want to give him at least one more season before resorting to drastic measures. Sometimes a player needs at least one season to adjust to new surroundings. In addition, a new coach could be a better fit for him. There's also the sunk cost theory, where the Kings gave up considerable assets (<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/gabriel-vilardi">Gabriel Vilardi</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-iafallo">Alex Iafallo</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rasmus-kupari">Rasmus Kupari</a>, 2024 2nd-round pick) to acquire him, so they might want to see this through. Dubois’ lack of production resulted in a demotion to the fourth line, but an injury could very easily bump him up to the top of the lineup next season. All in all, I’m not drafting him as a sleeper unless it’s a very late one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounces back in some way. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">may3</a>)
17. This is a fascinating summer coming for Los Angeles, who have nearly $21M in cap space, per <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/kings">Cap Friendly</a>. They have <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matt-roy">Matt Roy</a> as a free agent, and he’ll probably be replaced by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandt-clarke">Brandt Clarke</a>, with no goalies signed and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/viktor-arvidsson">Viktor Arvidsson</a> likely testing the free agent waters elsewhere. They also have <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-spence">Jordan Spence</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinton-byfield">Quinton Byfield</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carl-grundstrom">Carl Grundstrom</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arthur-kaliyev">Arthur Kaliyev</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/blake-lizotte">Blake Lizotte</a> as restricted free agents. Signing two goalies, and a long-term extension from Byfield, will probably eat 50-60% of the team’s available cap space. Short-term contracts for the rest of their RFAs will come close to filling what’s left of the cap space. They are short on draft capital, short on cap space, and this team is clearly not in the Colorado-Dallas-Edmonton tier in the West right now. Interesting offseason, indeed. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">may2</a>)
18. With the fantasy hockey offseason here, my review of the 16 non-playoff teams is underway. We have gone over the seasons of the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/23/ramblings-caufields-shooting-eklund-thrun-granlund-and-san-joses-season-april-23/">San Jose Sharks</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/25/ramblings-updates-on-pesce-and-bennett-reviewing-chicagos-season-including-kurashev-korchinski-and-mrazek-april-25/">Chicago Blackhawks</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/26/ramblings-vlasic-extended-anaheims-season-and-mintyukov-vatrano-gibson-and-more-april-26/">Anaheim Ducks</a>, and the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/30/ramblings-reviewing-columbuss-season-including-gaudreau-fantilli-voronkov-jiricek-and-more-april-30/">Columbus Blue Jackets</a>. Next up is the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">Montreal Canadiens</a>. Let’s look at what went wrong, what went right, and where they go from here. This is all through a fantasy lens, of course.
As the resident Montreal fan watching this rebuild, and knowing a playoff was not in the cards, there was a list of things fans wanted from this season:
<ul><li><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/juraj-slafkovsky">Juraj Slafkovský</a> takes a step forward in his development after a tough rookie year.</li><li><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cole-caufield">Cole Caufield</a> cements himself in the tier below the top goal scorers in the league.</li><li><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nick-suzuki">Nick Suzuki</a> finally puts all his offensive and defensive skills together.</li><li>Newhook and Dach have good years that validate their respective trades.</li><li>At least a couple of the young defencemen like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kaiden-guhle">Kaiden Guhle</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/justin-barron">Justin Barron</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arber-xhekaj">Arber Xhekaj</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-harris">Jordan Harris</a> take a big step towards being reliable NHL defencemen.</li><li>One of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sam-montembeault">Sam Montembeault</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cayden-primeau">Cayden Primeau</a> grabs hold of the starting job.</li></ul>
A lot of that actually happened. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">may2</a>)
19. Of course, the big one in that list above is Slafkovský. There was a lot of consternation around his first overall selection (including from me), but he took a big step forward with 20 goals, 30 assists, 14 power play points, 55 penalty minutes, and both 152 shots and hits. That is a stellar multi-cat season in and of itself, and he didn’t turn 20 years old until the end of March.
Here are the improvements Slafkovský made:
<ul><li>Even strength goals/60 up 62%.</li><li>Even strength assists/60 up 47%.</li><li>Even strength shot attempts/60 up 10%.</li><li>Even strength individual expected goals/60 up 67%.</li><li>Carry-ins on zone entries from 34.6% to 53.6%.</li><li>Passing for zone entries 13.8% of the time against a team average of 11.8% after not showing up in this stat at all as a rookie.</li><li>Expected goals-for impact sky-rocketed from the 9th percentile to the 87th percentile.</li></ul>
There were significant improvements in several key areas and while some of that can be chalked up to playing three-quarters of his season at 5-on-5 with Caufield and Suzuki, if he was playing poorly, he wouldn’t have stayed on that line for four months. That he received so much top PP time is great for his fantasy value and once he starts shooting more, he’ll really unlock that next level of across-the-board fantasy upside. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">may2</a>)
[<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">Follow the link</a> for the full review…]
20. One of my friends asked me if I thought <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Steven-Stamkos">Steven Stamkos</a> was going to retire. To me it seems like a ridiculous notion, but I can see where that discourse has come from. For a player in his mid-30s, who has won two cups, played a lot of hard hockey over the last few years, had a few tough injuries, and made more than he needs to be able to live comfortably for the rest of his life, the question is fair at this point. However, Stamkos is only 34 (on the right end of the “mid-30s” range) and just finished a point-per-game, 40-goal season. There is lots left in the tank, and he either has the freedom to choose where he wants to play, or he has the freedom to ask for whatever contract makes sense for him and the Lightning, and they can run it back one more time for another competitive season.
Odds are that he’s sticking with the Lightning, and I would bet both him and General Manager Julien BriseBois know that, so they can wait and see what the cap situation looks like after taking care of some other business and then fit him in around that. Similar to Thornton signing those one-year deals in San Jose. The team sorted out the rest of their offseason plans, and then gave Thornton whatever was left. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/01/ramblings-stamkos-situation-calder-finalists-canes-advance-leafs-live-on-more-may-1/">may1</a>)
21. There have been two coach firings since my last Ramblings, with Dave Hokstol out in Seattle, and Dave Quinn out in San Jose. This could be a big deal for the fantasy values of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/oliver-bjorkstrand">Oliver Bjorkstrand</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jared-McCann">Jared McCann</a>, who were both 60-point players this past year despite only playing 16 minutes a game. If they get the full 20-minute deployment of top-line players, then both of them are pushing 75 points next year. Getting a healthy season from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vince-dunn">Vince Dunn</a> should make a big difference now. Even still, the Kraken aren’t likely to be a playoff team again soon, as they don’t have the high end talent to make the push, and they don’t have the depth to put up a similar season to what the Kings did this year.
As for the Sharks, there aren’t any delusions of the team making the playoffs next year, which does make the firing of Quinn a little confusing, because he was hired less than two years prior. It begs the question of what do the Sharks’ brass want in a coach then? Maybe someone who plays or develops the kids a little more? As someone who is looking at <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-eklund">William Eklund</a> taking another step next year alongside <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thomas-bordeleau">Thomas Bordeleau</a>, and maybe at least one of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/calen-addison">Calen Addison</a> or Colin Graf turning into a useful fantasy asset.
There are some useful pieces on both teams, so the incoming coaches will have a big effect on many fantasy seasons. (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/01/ramblings-stamkos-situation-calder-finalists-canes-advance-leafs-live-on-more-may-1/">may1</a>)
—
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profile.php">Frozen Tools</a> has a new report that generates data from NHL Edge. Useful in the same sense that stats such as pitch speed and exit velocity are used for fantasy baseball. Some more possibilities for deep-dive research on a particular player, especially when comparing one season to another as well as what might lie ahead. Regular-season data only so far – no playoff data.
—
Have a good week, folks!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – <a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/forum.php">visit the gang in the forum here</a>.
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<title>Ramblings: Bruins Take Game 7 OT With Pastrnak Goal, Lady Byng Nominees – Matthews, Pettersson, Slavin (May 5)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/ramblings-bruins-take-game-7-ot-with-pastrnak-goal-lady-byng-nominees-matthews-pettersson-slavin-may-5/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/ramblings-bruins-take-game-7-ot-with-pastrnak-goal-lady-byng-nominees-matthews-pettersson-slavin-may-5/#comments</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sun, 05 May 2024 05:07:48 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82825</guid>
<description><![CDATA[First off, I know you’re dying to read about that Game 7 unless you’re a Leafs fan. However, I have to start with an update from the man himself. From Dobber’s X account: Long overdue update I was recovering well from my March 13 transplant. March 29 - all good, progressing well. But then things [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
First off, I know you're dying to read about that Game 7 unless you're a Leafs fan. However, I have to start with an update from the man himself. From Dobber's X account:
Long overdue update
I was recovering well from my March 13 transplant. March 29 – all good, progressing well. But then things took a turn. March 30 I got pneumonia again and had difficulty breathing and was put in ICU. March 31 they had to put me in a coma and machines were breathing for me.
April 5 they brought me out of the coma. My 50th birthday was just me unconscious trying to live.
Anyway, once awake, I had zero motor functions. I could move my head, eyes, fingers, toes, but had no voice nor strength. Four weeks.  later, rehab has been going well. I can now speak hoarsely, and stand on my own. I am eating again, though food is tasteless. Arms and legs getting strength. As soon as I can walk, they will send me home and the nightmare ends. They are shocked and impressed with my progress these few weeks.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Long overdue update I was recovering well from my March 13 transplant. March 29 – all good, progressing well. But then things took a turn. March 30 I got pneumonia again and had difficulty breathing and was put in ICU. March 31 they had to put me in a coma and machines were…— Dobber (@DobberHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/DobberHockey/status/1786783409672483283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Whoa. That's quite a scare. However, it's also a relief knowing that his health is headed in the right direction. I don't know when Dobber will return to action, but he should be given all the time he needs to recover and return to full strength. I do know that he is itching to return to Dobber Hockey as soon as he is able to.
We're all pulling for you, Dobber!
–
All right, let's discuss Game 7 of Boston and Toronto, the only game of playoff pucks on Saturday.
Bruins 2, Maple Leafs 1 (Bruins win series 4-3)
In case you missed it, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Pastrnak">David Pastrnak</a> scored the overtime winner to advance the Bruins to the second round, where they will face Florida. Game 1 of that series will be on Monday.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">WINNER WINNER, PASTA DINNER! 🍝 David Pastrňák scores the <a href="https://twitter.com/SUBWAYCanada?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SUBWAYCanada</a> OT winner to send the Bruins to Round 2. <a href="https://t.co/UeUS9i7kE9">pic.twitter.com/UeUS9i7kE9</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1786960481279746199?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Hampus-Lindholm">Hampus Lindholm</a> executed a perfect (or extremely fortunate) bank pass in the corner, where Pasta was able to take the puck and sneak it past the pad of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-samsonov">Ilya Samsonov</a>.
Pastrnak's goal was his first point in three games. He had registered points in the first four games before hitting a dry spell in Games 5 and 6. The Bruins had scored just one goal as a team in each of Games 5 and 6. Despite the lack of scoring, Pastrnak had taken four shots in each of his last four games, so he should be fine if you've got him in your playoff pool.
As the starter for all but one of the seven games in this series, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jeremy-Swayman">Jeremy Swayman</a> has been amazing. Swayman has registered quality starts in all six of his games, allowing either one or two goals in each game. As I've mentioned before, the Bruins appear to be signaling their intention to make Swayman the full-time starter going forward. Several teams will be looking to improve their goaltending situation this offseason, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/linus-ullmark">Linus Ullmark</a> has the recent Vezina Trophy resume to fetch a solid return for the Bruins. An Ullmark trade would make even more sense if the Bruins can acquire a top-6 center in return.
The story before the game was who was going to be in the Leafs' lineup and who wasn't. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> made his return after a two-game absence due to illness, dishing a nice pass to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a> for the Leafs' goal. However, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joseph-woll">Joseph Woll</a> was unable to start Game 7 due to an undisclosed injury, which had Leafs Nation on edge because he had impressed in both Games 5 and 6. Even though he wasn't the Leafs' first choice for this game, Samsonov played well in stopping 29 of 31 shots.
Between Friday and Saturday, all three games have been 0-0 entering the third period. Teams are clearly bearing down defensively as games become more high stakes. If you're invested in any of these games with a particular team, then you'll know that these games are anything but boring and you're always on edge. The complexion of the game can switch in the blink of an eye. That's why there might not be better television than playoff hockey.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Boston has won every series-clinching Game 7 vs. Toronto since 2013 😤 <a href="https://t.co/HLZjZrzvWF">pic.twitter.com/HLZjZrzvWF</a>— ESPN (@espn) <a href="https://twitter.com/espn/status/1786960050440790170?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Although the low-scoring playoff games are a league-wide trend, the Leafs have to be left wondering why a team built around the core four has trouble scoring during the playoffs. They've been held to two or fewer goals in 13 of their last 14 playoff games. Add that to the pile of continued playoff failures and it's crystal clear that something has to change for the Leafs. It may be Brendan Shanahan. It may be Sheldon Keefe. It may be one of the core four – my guess is that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a> would be the player most likely traded out of that group, if there is a trade. Most likely Keefe is done. But they can't keep rolling out the exact same crew and expect different results.
Keefe's quote at the end of the game was particularly puzzling. Perhaps he already knows that his days are numbered.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Sheldon Keefe: "When teams play the Leafs, they set up the game for the Leafs to beat themselves"— Sara 'vehemently anti-Rangers for a long time' Civ (@SaraCivian) <a href="https://twitter.com/SaraCivian/status/1786971692172013614?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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–
Matthews, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/elias-pettersson">Elias Pettersson</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jaccob-slavin">Jaccob Slavin</a> were announced as the three Lady Byng Trophy finalists on Saturday. When these finalists are announced, I like to check the penalty minute totals for each nominee. Not that having the fewest penalty minutes is the exact criteria for winning the award, but I'm sure it factors in.
Matthews: 81 GP, 20 PIM
Pettersson: 82 GP, 12 PIM
Slavin: 81 GP, 8 PIM
Slavin won the award in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, having taken just a single minor penalty in 52 games. Since then, he's picked up 10, 8, and 8 PIM, all seasons in which he has played at least 75 games. That's a very low penalty minute total for a defenseman, as no d-man that played at least 60 games had that few penalty minutes in 2023-24. About 25 other defensemen with at least 60 games have between 10-20 penalty minutes, while overall penalty minutes have been on the decline in recent years.
I would think there's a lot of subjectivity in who wins this award because it involves the eye test and reputation. However, playing a position like defense at a high level (60 CF%) without putting your team at risk shorthanded should say something, which is why I'd be fine with Slavin winning the Lady Byng.
By the way, among all players who had played at least 60 games, the top nine player CF% (percentage of on-ice shot attempts for) were all from Carolina. Slavin was included among that group. They've been a strong Corsi team the last few years, but it shows how dominant their system can be in games.
–
Continuing with Lady Byng nominees, if you watched any of the Canucks series in the first round, you may have noticed that Pettersson hasn't been his usual dominant self. Pettersson was held without a goal in the series, and his secondary assist on <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pius-suter">Pius Suter</a>'s game-winner in Game 6 was just his third assist in six games. He's averaged barely over a shot per game in the playoffs, with a whole bunch more that have been blocked (26 shot attempts). His amazing shot hasn't had the same zip or accuracy as it did in the regular season.
Must of this could be psychological, as Nashville blocked a ton of shots in the series and he may simply need to catch a break and have one go in. Yet he had been struggling in the goal department prior to the playoffs, having scored just one goal in his last 13 regular-season games. That might be the sign of something more serious, such as a wrist injury. Teams will usually sidestep questions about injuries during the playoffs, but then be completely transparent about the injuries once the season ends. If a player's production suddenly goes dry or they seem to disappear during the playoffs, then that is often the reason.
Pettersson's linemates late in the season and in the playoffs have often been <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-mikheyev">Ilya Mikheyev</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-hoglander">Nils Hoglander</a>. Both have had their struggles, having both been held without a point in the Nashville series. More time with better scorers might help Petey, but you could also look at it the other way around: Mikheyev and Hoglander aren't scoring because Pettersson isn't right (although Mikheyev has just ONE goal since December 19 – a combined 56 regular-season and playoff games!)
–
Look for the writers’ second-round picks once the Dallas/Vegas Game 7 has been completed. 
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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<title>The Journey: CHL Playoff Leaders</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/the-journey-chl-playoff-leaders/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/the-journey-chl-playoff-leaders/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Gehrels]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sat, 04 May 2024 22:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[The Journey]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82813</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. Having recently scanned the U23 players excelling in the first round of the NHL playoffs, let’s turn our attention this week to the playoff action in Canada’s top three junior leagues. [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
Welcome back to <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/category/hockey-home/the-journey/">The Journey</a>, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2022/06/30/breakout-threshold-bt-using-career-games-played-to-determine-breakout-potential/">stardom</a>. Having <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/27/the-journey-early-playoff-impacts-from-the-2020-draft-class/">recently scanned</a> the U23 players excelling in the first round of the NHL playoffs, let's turn our attention this week to the playoff action in Canada's top three junior leagues.
***
Ontario Hockey League (OHL)
The Conference Finals are well underway In the OHL right now.
In the East, the Oshawa Generals, featuring Calum Ritchie (COL), 2024-eligible Beckett Sennecke, and a bunch of longshots, are up 3-2 on the North Bay Battalion, who are led by Sandis Vilmanis (FLA), Ty Nelson (SEA), and the undrafted-but-prolific Anthony Romani, who finished second in OHL scoring to David Goyette (SEA) in the regular season.
In the West, it's the loaded London Knights leading the feisty Saginaw Spirit 3-1. London is led by Denver Barkey (PHI) and Easton Cowan (TOR), with key support from 2024-eligible Sam Dickinson, Kasper Halttunen (SJS), Oliver Bonk (PHI), and Isaiah George (NYI). Saginaw boasts dynamic youth, with top 2024 prospect Zayne Parekh and 2025-eligible Michael Misa leading a team that also features Owen Beck (MTL), Rodwin Dionicio (ANA), Josh Bloom (VAN), Hunter Haight (MIN), and Matyas Sapovaliv (VGK).
Insights:
As he has done all year, <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/calum-ritchie/">Cal Ritchie</a> (COL) continues to put the Generals on his back, proving that he was an excellent late-first-round steal by Colorado at last year's draft. He has always been billed as the kind of player who makes everyone around him better. He is a dynamic, high-IQ playmaker who can also snipe, but he continues to be less of a highlight-reel player and more of a significant play-driver who provides a ton of intangibles on top of the (as of this year) prolific production.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">SHHHHHHNIPE! 🎯<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedHot?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RedHot</a>🔥 | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OSHvsNB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OSHvsNB</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoAvsGo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoAvsGo</a> <a href="https://t.co/Qr9dqe7uUR">pic.twitter.com/Qr9dqe7uUR</a>— Oshawa Generals (@Oshawa_Generals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1784728648500539482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">"If [Cal Ritchie] played the full year, I believe he would've led the league and scoring and won the OHL MVP," said <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigJButton?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CraigJButton</a> . "The Avalanche got an absolute stud [in the draft] because people didn't understand how the injury impacted his play last year. This year from the… <a href="https://t.co/TC1dy9N67A">https://t.co/TC1dy9N67A</a>— Meghan Angley (@megangley) <a href="https://twitter.com/megangley/status/1786589797462540516?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Ritchie is currently tied with Sandis Vilmanis (FLA) for the OHL playoff scoring lead, one point ahead of teammate <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/beckett-sennecke/">Beckett Sennecke</a> (2024 eligible), who has had scouts salivating of late and is shooting up draft boards. Although he has been less hyped than the other top options for the upcoming draft—mostly ranked in the early 20s at mid-season—Sennecke is now being discussed as a potential top-five selection by some.
In the Dobber Prospects' Top 96 from last month, Jordan Harris noted Sennecke's constant improvements throughout the year, concluding that although he "is a supremely talented player who'll try anything to gain an advantage or generate offence," he is still quite raw, poor in his own end, and mistake-prone. He feels like he might be considered a reach at 5th but an excellent upside play in the 8-10 range at this point. Check out this wicked release, for example:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Beckett Sennecke IS LEGIT 👀🔥!!! <a href="https://t.co/N0k0YHXUkF">pic.twitter.com/N0k0YHXUkF</a>— MTLCanadiensTalk (@talk_canadiens) <a href="https://twitter.com/talk_canadiens/status/1785840680113148078?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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I did not see this level of production coming from <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/sandis-vilmanis/">Vilmanis</a>, a fifth-round pick by Florida from the 2022 draft. He did not have any glaring holes in his skillset in his draft year, which is notable for a depth pick, but there were concerns about his processing speed and NHL trajectory. I recently switched over to covering the Red Wings, but as Dobber's Florida scout for the past few years, I rated Vilmanis a 5.0 on both upside and NHL likelihood and did not see much potential. Although his upside remains a depth scorer at the NHL level, he continues to progress steadily and showcased his excellent shot and hands in this year's playoffs.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">A textbook net drive from Sandis Vilmanis 📚 The <a href="https://twitter.com/FlaPanthers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FlaPanthers</a> prospect doubles the <a href="https://twitter.com/OHLBattalion?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OHLBattalion</a> lead in the first period!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OHLPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OHLPlayoffs</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OSHvsNB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OSHvsNB</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TimeToHunt?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TimeToHunt</a> <a href="https://t.co/QclhPGwrQJ">pic.twitter.com/QclhPGwrQJ</a>— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1785813193907982720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Over in the West, <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/hunter-haight/">Hunter Haight</a> (MIN) came up huge for Saginaw recently, scoring a hat trick in an elimination game to push the series to at least a fifth game:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Friday night Haight-Trick 🎩🎩🎩<a href="https://twitter.com/mnwild?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mnwild</a> prospect Hunter Haight comes through in a big game for <a href="https://twitter.com/SpiritHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SpiritHockey</a>, extending their playoff journey into Sunday 🎥<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OHLPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OHLPlayoffs</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LDNvsSAG?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LDNvsSAG</a> <a href="https://t.co/gjlasbuEvF">pic.twitter.com/gjlasbuEvF</a>— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1786767739232883140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rodwin-dionicio">Rodwin Dionicio</a> racked up four assists in that same game and continues to intrigue for fantasy purposes as a slower-skating-but-deadly-deceptive defender for the young Ducks.
For London, <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/denver-barkey/">Denver Barkey</a> (PHI), <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/easton-cowan/">Easton Cowan</a> (TOR), and <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/kasper-halttunen/">Kasper Halttunen</a> (SJS) have formed a wicked trio. Barkey and Cowan are the straws that stir the drink, and Halttunen is constantly ready to unleash his dangerous shot, as he does on this power play from the bumper after a slick pass by Barkey:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Denver Barkey (10) with a nice passing play to pick up his 13th point in 10 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OHLPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OHLPlayoffs</a> games.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoKnightsGo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoKnightsGo</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LetsGoFlyers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LetsGoFlyers</a> <a href="https://t.co/PITZmarntQ">pic.twitter.com/PITZmarntQ</a>— Dylan H. Robillard (@DylanRobillard_) <a href="https://twitter.com/DylanRobillard_/status/1784652971353239939?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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At this point, it looks as though Ritchie's Generals will face off against Cowan's Knights in the OHL Finals, but anything can happen. Exciting hockey.
Western Hockey League (WHL)
In the Western league, both series have been hotly contested and are headed into their sixth game.
On the one side, we have the Saskatoon Blades, led by Fraser Minten (TOR), Tanner Molendyk (NAS), and Yegor Sidorov (ANA), currently on top over the absolutely loaded Moose Jaw Warriors, who have a "Big Four" of Matthew Savoie (BUF), Jagger Firkus (SEA), Brayden Yager (PIT), and Denton Mateychuk (CBJ)—all of whom were first- or second-round picks in recent years.
On the other, the Portland Winterhawks, with Nate Danielson (DET), Josh Davies (FLA), and Luca Cagnoni (SJS), are up 3-2 over the Prince George Cougars, who have Riley Heidt (MIN), Koehn Ziemmer (LAK), and 2024-eligible phenoms Terik Parascak and Ondrej Becher.
Insights:
Starting with the Western Final, Saskatoon will just not be denied.
Anaheim's <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/yegor-sidorov/">Yegor Sidorov</a>, who just scored 50 goals in the regular season, leads the WHL playoffs with 14 goals in 14 games—three clear of the regular-season scoring champ, Firkus. Sidorov is not someone who has really been on my radar for fantasy, but I think he should be at this point. He was an overaged third-round pick last year, which rarely bodes well, but his improvements over the past couple years have been impressive.
From Elite Prospects' 2023 Draft Guide: "If the WHL had a Most Improved Player award, Yegor Sidorov would've gotten our vote. The goalscoring winger went from a clever, but unrefined shooter to one of the league's most dangerous scoring threats." Scoring 90 goals in his last 119 games in Junior will likely earn him an audition with the AHL San Diego Gulls as early as next season, especially because his manually tracked microstats (courtesy of EP's Mitch Brown) show a balanced three-zone impact.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Egor Sidorov comes in clutch and has the Blades rolling, rolling, rolling back to Saskatoon!!!<a href="https://twitter.com/AnaheimDucks?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AnaheimDucks</a> <a href="https://t.co/sUjfjsk5JD">pic.twitter.com/sUjfjsk5JD</a>— Saskatoon Blades (@BladesHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/BladesHockey/status/1785877863196995918?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Top Leafs prospect <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/fraser-minten/">Fraser Minten</a> has been the target of much scrutiny this year as the Captain of Canada's underwhelming submission to the U20 World Juniors, but he has come up clutch so far in these playoffs, including this huge overtime goal (and ridiculous celly) to put Saskatoon up 3-2 in the series:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Bow down to Fraser Minten 🙌<a href="https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MapleLeafs</a> <a href="https://t.co/A8ehBG42c9">pic.twitter.com/A8ehBG42c9</a>— Saskatoon Blades (@BladesHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/BladesHockey/status/1786624806302986641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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There are too many awesome prospects to highlight, but Moose Jaw captain <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/denton-mateychuk/">Denton Mateychuk</a> (CBJ) is certainly worthy of a shout out. He leads the playoffs in assists with 17 in 14 games (plus eight goals), and continues to leverage his all-world skating to jump up into the rush and provide quick-strike offense in transition:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Captain Denton Mateychuk makes it three goals in 6:49 for the <a href="https://twitter.com/MJWARRIORS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MJWARRIORS</a>! <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJacketsNHL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BlueJacketsNHL</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WHLPlayoffs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WHLPlayoffs</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FeedingtheFuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FeedingtheFuture</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ljynmxtc5k">pic.twitter.com/Ljynmxtc5k</a>— The WHL (@TheWHL) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheWHL/status/1786595679944511656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Despite needing to crack a crowded Columbus blue line, expect to see the lanky defender scoring goals like that in the NHL as soon as next year, with a full-time arrival likely in 2025-26.
As the ninth-overall pick from the 2023 draft, <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/nate-danielson/">Nate Danielson</a> (DET) felt like a bit of a reach for the Red Wings—especially given that noted talents like Dalibor Dvorsky (STL) and especially Zach Benson (BUF) were still on the board at that point. Then his production with the Brandon Wheat Kings declined in his D+1, which is only part of the story but is never a good sign from a high-level overaged prospect in junior. However, a mid-season trade to Portland got him going, resulting in a 0.3 point-per-game increase over his Draft year. He has continued that torrid pace in the off-season, posting four goals and 16 assists—one back from Mateychuk's 17 for the league lead.
<a href="https://twitter.com/seanshapiro/status/1786407971422965925">https://twitter.com/seanshapiro/status/1786407971422965925</a>
Danielson is looking like the two-way playmaking force that the Wings thought he was. Expect him to report to Grand Rapids (AHL) in 2024-25.
Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League (QMJHL)
Finally, over in the east of the country, the semis have already concluded, and the Baie-Comeau Drakkar are facing off against the Drummondville Voltigeurs in the league final. Prospects of note in this series include Maveric Lamoureaux (UTA) and Ethan Gauthier (TBL) on Drummondville and Justin Gill (NYI) and 2024-eligible Justin Poirier on Baie-Comeau.
Insights:
If you haven't read it already, check out this excellent article by Scott Wheeler at The Athletic about <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/maveric-lamoureux/">Lamoureaux</a>'s development regime:
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Utah's Maveric Lamoureux might be the most fascinating development case study in hockey. I spent months learning about the 6-foot-7 D and the science and process that has turned him into a top prospect. My <a href="https://twitter.com/TheAthletic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheAthletic</a> feature on the 'Robocop': <a href="https://t.co/y3QAzH91Ov">https://t.co/y3QAzH91Ov</a> <a href="https://t.co/dOuOImo3F1">pic.twitter.com/dOuOImo3F1</a>— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) <a href="https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1785613256029057374?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Lamoureux is primarily known for being a 6-7 defender, part of the Coyotes recent emphasis on size, whose parents shared a <a href="https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1673426728545288195">passionate kiss</a> immediately after he was drafted. He made notable improvements on offence this year (33 in 39), however, and is proving that he is much more than just a big body. He will need a long runway still, but he made Team Canada this year and seems to be justifying his first-round selection in spades.
<a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/justin-poirier/">Justin Poirier</a> (2024), the Q's leading playoff scorer so far, has been generating the most buzz of this group lately:
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Most Québec hockey fans have heard of 17 y/o Justin Poirier. He's been killing it in the Q this year. His only problem ? He's 5'7''. Should the <a href="https://twitter.com/CanadiensMTL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CanadiensMTL</a> take a shot on him this summer? Regular season: 68gp 51🚨 31🍏82pts +40 Post season: 12gp 16🚨8🍏24pts +11<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoHabsGo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoHabsGo</a> <a href="https://t.co/dYnVDiWfQe">pic.twitter.com/dYnVDiWfQe</a>— THE CAYDEN LINDSTROM FAN CLUB (@German_Diver) <a href="https://twitter.com/German_Diver/status/1785711573903831399?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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He went nearly a point-per-game a year ago at age 16, and this year he put up an impressive 82 points in 68 games (51 goals), taking his game to yet another level in the postseason with 25 points in 13 games. He has been ranked anywhere from a late-first (24th, Recruit Scouting) to late-third (84th, McKeen's) pick, but has been picking up momentum with this strong finish to the year.
Our team at DP <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/2024/04/20/dobberprospects-april-top-96-for-the-2024-nhl-draft/">slotted him in at 41st</a> on our April board. QMJHL regional scout Sasha Lagarde wrote that "Poirier is quickly becoming the most intriguing prospect coming out of the QMJHL this season… He has an elite shot and rarely backs away from physicality in the corners or in front of the net. Poirier has improved in his playmaking abilities by using the middle of the ice more to open up lanes for himself. Poirier has enough pace to keep up with better players and can score in a multitude of ways which is the most translatable element of his game. As he matures, his defensive game should improve and his hockey sense will allow him to grasp concepts at the pro level. Poirier could be a sneaky gamble for teams looking for secondary scoring threats in the second round."
Poirier picks up about a penalty minute per game, so he clearly isn't afraid to mix it up physically. At 5-8 (181 lbs), however, he will constantly have to counter the "too small" narrative that remains very much alive and well in the NHL, especially come playoff time. I agree with Lagarde: I would love to see my favourite team come away with a player like this in the second round.
***
Thanks for reading! Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/beegare">@beegare</a> for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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<title>Ramblings: Canucks Advance with an Arty Party, Hanifin Goal Keeps Vegas Alive (May 4)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/04/ramblings-canucks-advance-with-an-arty-party-hanifin-goal-keeps-vegas-alive-may-4/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sat, 04 May 2024 06:14:37 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82811</guid>
<description><![CDATA[There were two games of playoff pucks on Friday. Vancouver advances to the second round, while Nashville’s season comes to an end. Meanwhile, Vegas forces a winner-take-all Game 7 with Dallas on Sunday. Canucks 1, Predators 0 (Canucks win series 4-2) It wasn’t an overtime goal, but it almost seemed that way. Pius Suter scored [...]]]></description>
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There were two games of playoff pucks on Friday. Vancouver advances to the second round, while Nashville's season comes to an end. Meanwhile, Vegas forces a winner-take-all Game 7 with Dallas on Sunday.
Canucks 1, Predators 0 (Canucks win series 4-2)
It wasn't an overtime goal, but it almost seemed that way. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pius-suter">Pius Suter</a> scored the game's only goal with just 1:39 remaining in the third period. That was the difference for the Canucks, who now advance to play Edmonton in an all-Canadian second-round series.  
The Canucks took a cross-checking penalty with just 33 seconds remaining, but they were able to survive a 6-on-4 onslaught from the Predators to secure the series win. This was arguably the Canucks' most impressive game of the series, as the 29 shots they took was the highest total of any game in a series where they struggled to get shots on net.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Here's how Game 6 sounded on <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet650?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Sportsnet650</a> with me and <a href="https://twitter.com/RandipJanda?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RandipJanda</a>! Off to Round 2! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Canucks?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Canucks</a> <a href="https://t.co/bBuRi1IULn">pic.twitter.com/bBuRi1IULn</a>— Brendan Batchelor (@BatchHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/BatchHockey/status/1786607444397048276?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Look at how close the Predators came to tying the game with about 7 ticks left on the clock. Sheesh. I didn't actually notice that until after the game.
The real story in this game was the goalies. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arturs-silovs">Arturs Silovs</a> was flawless in net, stopping all 28 shots he faced to become the youngest goalie in Canucks history (age 23) to post a shutout. Silovs was playing in just his third career playoff game. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/juuse-saros">Juuse Saros</a> had an impressive game himself, stopping 28 of 29 shots he faced. After a disastrous third period and overtime in Game 4, Saros was his best in Games 5 and 6 in allowing just one goal in each game.
The injury to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> after Game 1 had Canucks fans panicking, while the minor injury to backup <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-desmith">Casey DeSmith</a> raised the temperature even more. Silovs has just nine games of regular-season NHL experience, but he has some recent big-game experience in leading Latvia to a bronze medal in last year's World Hockey Championship while being named tournament MVP. Unexpected heroes can appear from the playoffs, and this season Silovs is emerging as one of those guys.
It's important to determine whether playoff success can lead to fantasy success the following season and beyond, because that's sometimes not the case. DeSmith is a UFA after the season, so it's entirely possible that Silovs moves into the backup role in Vancouver next season. His AHL numbers (2.74 GAA, .907 SV%) did regress a little bit from last season, but he is demonstrating that he has what it takes to stick in the NHL. With Demko now an injury risk with games missed both this season and last, the Canucks have to seriously think about giving him more nights off. Spending big money on a backup goalie isn't an option if the Canucks are to stay competitive, so Silovs' emergence in these playoffs couldn't come at a better time.
The coaches in this game (Rick Tocchet and Andrew Brunette) were two of the three finalists for the Jack Adams Trophy for top coach. In fairness to Rick Bowness, whose Jets team made vast improvements this season, I think Tocchet and Brunette should be the top two candidates. Tocchet has not only met the Canucks' goal of making the playoffs this season, he also had them in the mix for the Presidents' Trophy. Meanwhile, Brunette has taken a rather ordinary (on paper) Predators group into the playoffs where they seem to buy into his system. I've seen very few passengers on this Nashville roster during their first-round series. Kudos to them on a hard-fought series.
An argument could be made for Kris Knoblauch to be a Jack Adams finalist. The Oilers' season seemed to completely turn around when he was hired as head coach. The counterargument to that could be that the Oilers finally started to perform as expected after their woeful start, considering that they were a preseason favorite to win the Stanley Cup.
To wrap up this section, who do I like to win the Canucks/Oilers series? I'll post my pick with the other writers shortly, as I haven't completely made up my mind as I write this. The Canucks may have a psychological edge, having won all four games against the Oilers this season. Three of those wins were early in the season before the Oilers made their coaching change, and it's understood that the Oilers are a different team now. In addition, the Oilers will have a bit more rest while we don't really know when Demko will return and how Silovs will hold up against <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a>, and company.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The stage is set for a 2nd round matchup between the Canucks & Oilers Here's how both teams fared in their regular-season matchups <a href="https://t.co/qu4ePStnCt">pic.twitter.com/qu4ePStnCt</a>— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/1786599228845740054?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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–
Golden Knights 2, Stars 0 (series tied 3-3)
There will now officially be two Game 7s in this season's first round. Leafs and Bruins on Saturday, followed by Golden Knights and Stars on Sunday after the first game of the Hurricanes/Rangers series.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Noah-Hanifin">Noah Hanifin</a>'s icebreaker goal midway through the third period turned out to be the game-winner for Vegas, which snaps a three-game losing streak for the Golden Knights in this series.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NOAH HANIFIN DANCES AROUND AND PUTS VEGAS ON TOP 🚨 <a href="https://t.co/WL2KHUFTKl">pic.twitter.com/WL2KHUFTKl</a>— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) <a href="https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1786611147359072483?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Since being acquired by Vegas, Hanifin has 12 points in 19 regular-season games and five points in six playoff games. He was also installed on the top power play late in the season and has remained in that role through the playoffs, while both <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/shea-theodore">Shea Theodore</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Pietrangelo">Alex Pietrangelo</a> have manned the second unit. That's shown in the point totals for these defensemen in the playoffs. Three of Hanifin's points during the playoffs have been with the man advantage, while Pietrangelo has just one total point in the series and Theodore has yet to register a single point in the series.
Although things could change, Hanifin on the Golden Knights' top power play could be something to remember for next season's drafts. Vegas is all about buying the shiny new toy, which is why they signed Pietrangelo in the first place a few years ago. Now it's Hanifin, whose eight-year contract with a cap hit of over $7 million kicks in next season, which could mean his days of sub-50% power-play usage could be over. In other words, we could see Hanifin reach a whole new level in Vegas. Dobber, if you're reading this, can you adjust his upside to beyond 55 points?
The "what have you done for me lately" Golden Knights decided to turn to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/adin-hill">Adin Hill</a> for Game 5. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/logan-thompson">Logan Thompson</a> had allowed three goals in both Games 3 and 4, but he posted quality starts in all of Games 2, 3, and 4. Maybe Bruce Cassidy felt the team needed a shakeup, or simply wanted to give last season's Cup-winning goalie a chance to deliver again. After a Game 5 loss, Hill stopped all 23 shots he faced to pitch a Game 6 shutout. If Vegas advances past the first round, expect them to continue to ride the <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/hot">hot</a> goalie.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">My goodness Adin Hill 👏 <a href="https://t.co/j4Rmi2Xupm">pic.twitter.com/j4Rmi2Xupm</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1786593879879196771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Thompson and Hill posted surprisingly similar numbers during the regular season, reaffirming that Vegas' goalie situation should be considered a timeshare. Thompson posted a 2.70 GAA and .908 SV%, while Hill's 2.71 GAA and .909 SV% was practically a mirror image of that.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Stone">Mark Stone</a> scored an empty netter in the final minute to add insurance to the victory. Since returning from a lacerated spleen (just in time for the playoffs!), Stone has scored three goals in six games. Stone is still an effective player, but he has clearly earned the title of <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-dobotomy/dobbers-band-aid-boys-2019-edition/">Band-Aid Boy</a>. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 45 games played, making him a high-risk option in fantasy leagues. When projecting his stats for next season, you need to knock off at least 20 games. That's just because he still might be dealing with a back ailment, while another extended LTIR stay for whatever is also a factor.
Remember when <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a> was an exceptional playoff performer? Yeah. He's been held without a point during this six-game series. It's a small sample against one team, but maybe we're finally starting to see a decline from the 39-year-old Pavelski. His scoring total fell from 77 points last season to 67 points this season. He's also a UFA at the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see whether Dallas prioritizes resigning him over someone like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Tanev">Chris Tanev</a>.
Don't know if this means anything, but Peter DeBoer is 7-0 all-time in Game 7s. I have to think for a minute which team Peter DeBoer coaches for. Oh yeah, used to be Vegas, now it's Dallas.
–
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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<title>Frozen Tools Forensics: Most Valuable Fantasy Hockey Right Wingers</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/frozen-tools-forensics-most-valuable-fantasy-hockey-right-wingers/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/frozen-tools-forensics-most-valuable-fantasy-hockey-right-wingers/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Kane]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 15:35:01 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Frozen Tools Forensics]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82804</guid>
<description><![CDATA[We will return to the playoffs once the first round is concluded, but for this week we are moving on with part two of our Most Valuable series. Last week we reviewed the center position and this week we will be taking a look at right wings. As a reminder here is some context for [...]]]></description>
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We will return to the playoffs once the first round is concluded, but for this week we are moving on with part two of our Most Valuable series. Last week we reviewed the center position and this week we will be taking a look at right wings.
As a reminder here is some context for the data below from last week's article.
For the purposes of this article, we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Obviously, this means there might be some general deviations to your league, based on your settings, but it is at least a good starting point. In order to grab all of this data I am exporting the Multi-Category and Big Board Reports for the full season, and doing a bit of rearranging so I can have only the pertinent fields.
The table below contains the top five total fantasy producers at the right-wing position for the 2023-24 season. We start with basic player information on the left (name, position, team) then get into some production stats (total points, and then total fantasy points), and finally a couple of contextual stats (percent of total power play, and average time on ice).
<figure class="wp-block-table compressed"><table><tbody><tr><td>Name</td><td>Pos</td><td>Team</td><td>GP</td><td>PTS</td><td>Average ADP</td><td>Fantasy Points</td><td>%PP</td><td>TOI</td></tr><tr><td>NIKITA KUCHEROV</td><td>R</td><td>T.B</td><td>81</td><td>144</td><td>8.7</td><td>515.4</td><td>86.1</td><td>21:39</td></tr><tr><td>DAVID PASTRNAK</td><td>R</td><td>BOS</td><td>82</td><td>110</td><td>4.3</td><td>475.4</td><td>78</td><td>19:56</td></tr><tr><td>MIKKO RANTANEN</td><td>R</td><td>COL</td><td>80</td><td>104</td><td>7.4</td><td>417.8</td><td>83.1</td><td>22:54</td></tr><tr><td>SAM REINHART</td><td>R</td><td>FLA</td><td>82</td><td>94</td><td>103.8</td><td>401.2</td><td>69.4</td><td>20:18</td></tr><tr><td>WILLIAM NYLANDER</td><td>R</td><td>TOR</td><td>82</td><td>98</td><td>25.6</td><td>398.4</td><td>72.9</td><td>19:55</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
Like with last week these names aren't terribly unexpected. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Reinhart">Sam Reinhart</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a> certainly were not on this list last year, so we will touch base with them quickly.
For Reinhart, 2023-24 marks the second very solid season in the past three years, with 'just' a good season sandwiched in the middle. 2021-22 was boosted by an unsustainable bump in team shooting percentage and even though he saw a big time on ice boost in 2022-23 Reinhart's point pace dropped below point per game. He put up 94 in 2023-24 by mostly keeping the time on ice, but also seeing a huge increase in his personal shooting and team shooting percentages (his personal production probably somewhat contributing to the team one). His overall 24.5 shooting percentage is certainly too high, though he did do a lot of damage on the power play this year, so it might not be quite as unsustainable as it looks at first glance.
WIlliam Nylander put up a 98-point pace, has been point per game or higher for the past three seasons and honestly, everything just looks good. His points percentage on the power-play is maybe a touch higher than usual, but other than that, it all looks good. He saw a bump in overall ice time, increased his shot rates, and power-play points while maintaining pretty reasonably underlying numbers.
Moving on to the value part of the equation. Like last week: In addition to total fantasy points I have also pulled average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts so don't take into account leagues and drafts that started part way through the season. The idea here is that if we compare the draft position to the end of year fantasy points for all players, we can get an equation that lets us say, "on average a player with X draft position would be expected to get Y fantasy points." Once we have that we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. The ADP data below is compiled (averaged) from ESPN, Yahoo, and Fantrax ADPs for the 2023-24 season.
Our next table contains the players who provided the most value once we account for where they were drafted. I have included their ADP data, the fantasy points that were expected given that ADP and then the difference between those numbers.
<figure class="wp-block-table compressed"><table><tbody><tr><td>Name</td><td>Pos</td><td>Team</td><td>GP</td><td>PTS</td><td>Average ADP</td><td>Fantasy Points</td><td>%PP</td><td>TOI</td><td>Expected Value</td><td>Difference</td></tr><tr><td>NIKITA KUCHEROV</td><td>R</td><td>T.B</td><td>81</td><td>144</td><td>8.7</td><td>515.4</td><td>86.1</td><td>21:39</td><td>317.66</td><td>197.74</td></tr><tr><td>DAVID PASTRNAK</td><td>R</td><td>BOS</td><td>82</td><td>110</td><td>4.3</td><td>475.4</td><td>78</td><td>19:56</td><td>320.87</td><td>154.53</td></tr><tr><td>PHILIPP KURASHEV</td><td>R</td><td>CHI</td><td>75</td><td>54</td><td>447.5</td><td>151.2</td><td>65.7</td><td>19:01</td><td>-2.23</td><td>153.43</td></tr><tr><td>SAM REINHART</td><td>R</td><td>FLA</td><td>82</td><td>94</td><td>103.8</td><td>401.2</td><td>69.4</td><td>20:18</td><td>248.33</td><td>152.87</td></tr><tr><td>BROCK BOESER</td><td>R</td><td>VAN</td><td>81</td><td>73</td><td>176</td><td>315.6</td><td>72.7</td><td>18:36</td><td>195.70</td><td>119.90</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Kucherov">Nikita Kucherov</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Pastrnak">David Pastrnak</a> are not that surprising here, like with some of our top centers last week they just performed so well they were going to outrun the expected value equation.
We already touched on Reinhart, so let's take a look at <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/philipp-kurashev">Philipp Kurashev</a>. He is by far the lowest man on this list and certainly was not always rosterable – even in deep leagues. The main reason he is on this list at all is that he was essentially expected to do absolutely nothing, so any fantasy points were a bonus. He did put up a nice 59 actual-point pace, though, and when <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-bedard">Connor Bedard</a> was healthy he went on a couple nice little runs. He saw 19 minutes of ice time overall and almost three minutes on the power-play. It led to career highs across the board. The name of the game was Bedard, though. If Kurashev wasn't with Bedard at even strength and on the power play, he wasn't worth rostering.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-boeser">Brock Boeser</a> on the other hand, was found money in 2023-24. He wasn't drafted in a ton of leagues because of some mediocre previous seasons, but anyone who grabbed him after a <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/hot">hot</a> start was laughing as he put up his best season to date. His value was largely on the back of his first 40-goal season and as we might expect some of it came because of inflated shooting percentages (both his and team). Even if we were to regress him a few goals, it would still have been one of his most productive seasons to date.
Now we move on to the least valuable. These guys all underperformed their draft slot by significant margins. I tried to eliminate the most dramatic injury impacts with a games-played threshold.
<figure class="wp-block-table compressed"><table><tbody><tr><td>Name</td><td>Pos</td><td>Team</td><td>GP</td><td>PTS</td><td>Average ADP</td><td>Fantasy Points</td><td>%PP</td><td>TOI</td><td>Expected Value</td><td>Difference</td></tr><tr><td>BRANDON TANEV</td><td>R</td><td>SEA</td><td>66</td><td>16</td><td>169.1</td><td>70.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>14:35</td><td>200.73</td><td>-130.53</td></tr><tr><td>CONNOR BROWN</td><td>R</td><td>EDM</td><td>71</td><td>12</td><td>181.4</td><td>63.6</td><td>7.4</td><td>12:48</td><td>191.76</td><td>-128.16</td></tr><tr><td>DAWSON MERCER</td><td>R</td><td>N.J</td><td>82</td><td>33</td><td>155.3</td><td>118.6</td><td>29.7</td><td>17:13</td><td>210.79</td><td>-92.19</td></tr><tr><td>RICKARD RAKELL</td><td>R</td><td>PIT</td><td>70</td><td>37</td><td>114.2</td><td>164.6</td><td>45</td><td>16:31</td><td>240.75</td><td>-76.15</td></tr><tr><td>ANDREI KUZMENKO</td><td>R</td><td>CGY</td><td>72</td><td>46</td><td>111.1</td><td>172.4</td><td>62.6</td><td>14:53</td><td>243.01</td><td>-70.61</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
So we are two for two in terms of a Seattle Kraken making the disappointing list. I am not entirely sure why <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-tanev">Brandon Tanev</a> was drafted there on average. I can't really imagine it was for his offense, as a half point per game is his best season to date. That leaves peripheral contributions, but even there he disappointed with essentially the worst shot and hit numbers of his career.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-brown">Connor Brown</a> is an easy one. There was off-season hype and hope that he would play with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a>. It didn't pan out. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dawson-mercer">Dawson Mercer</a> falls in this kind of grouping too. He had a good 2022-23, but then the Devils went and added a few players and he played a lot on a third line and without top power-play time.
The reason for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Rickard-Rakell">Rickard Rakell</a>'s drop is also pretty clear. In 2022-23 he had a pretty solid season usurping <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/bryan-rust">Bryan Rust</a> for top line, top power-play deployment. In 2023-24 he lost about two minutes on average overall and a minute on the power-play. It resulted in almost a full lost shot per game, and a relatively big drop in expected goals. He also had just a touch of back luck helping to round out his disappointing season.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/andrei-kuzmenko">Andrei Kuzmenko</a> was probably the most predictable player on this list. There were so many articles warning about his low shot rates and high shooting percentage, but folks still over-drafted him anyway. He did have a decent end of the season once he got traded with 19 points over his final 19 games. Calgary was more willing to roll him out on their top power-play unit and to give him time at even strength. While he was in Vancouver, though, he was inconsistently used in good places and without dramatic shooting percentage he wasn't able to maintain the goal pace.
Finally I will wrap the column with a few names. These are the guys who weren't drafted but provided the most fantasy points.
<figure class="wp-block-table compressed"><table><tbody><tr><td>Name</td><td>Pos</td><td>Team</td><td>GP</td><td>PTS</td><td>Fantasy Points</td><td>%PP</td><td>TOI</td></tr><tr><td>GUSTAV NYQUIST</td><td>R</td><td>NSH</td><td>81</td><td>75</td><td>265.2</td><td>56.8</td><td>17:45</td></tr><tr><td>ALEXIS LAFRENIERE</td><td>R</td><td>NYR</td><td>82</td><td>57</td><td>236.8</td><td>27.3</td><td>17:16</td></tr><tr><td>BLAKE COLEMAN</td><td>R</td><td>CGY</td><td>78</td><td>54</td><td>236.4</td><td>18.6</td><td>17:08</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
I am not going to dig into these guys too far but <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Gustav-Nyquist">Gustav Nyquist</a> being on this list is definitely not a surprise. He was great for basically the entire season on the top line and top power-play in Nashville. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a> was a little more <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/hot">hot</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/cold">cold</a> throughout the year but finished pretty strong with 18 points in his last 20 games. He saw more time on ice, shot more, and put up more points than at any previous point in his career. Perhaps we are finally seeing the skill the Rangers had hoped for?
Perennial fringe candidate <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/blake-coleman">Blake Coleman</a> was finally worth a hold for a chunk of the year. He has spent a lot of his recent career going on roster-worthy <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/hot">hot</a> streaks and then going ice <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/cold">cold</a>, but in 2022-23 he managed almost a 60-point pace to go along with his peripherals.
That is all for this week.
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<title>Ramblings: Leafs Force Game 7, Masterton Nominees, Hellebuyck, Dubois (May 3)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 05:42:54 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82808</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Only one game of playoff pucks on Thursday… and it was quite the night for Leafs fans. Maple Leafs 2, Bruins 1 (series tied 3-3) Maybe losing Auston Matthews was what the Leafs needed to figure out how to dig deep and play with passion. Of course it’s not as simple as that, but the [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
Only one game of playoff pucks on Thursday… and it was quite the night for Leafs fans.
Maple Leafs 2, Bruins 1 (series tied 3-3)
Maybe losing <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> was what the Leafs needed to figure out how to dig deep and play with passion. Of course it's not as simple as that, but the Leafs have won both games that their star goal scorer has missed.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a> scored both goals for the Leafs, the goals being his first two of the playoffs and his first goals in 14 games dating back to the regular season. Nylander also finished the game with five shots, three hits, and two blocks, stepping up when the Leafs needed it most.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">"WE'RE GOING TO BOSTON AGAIN!" NYLANDER 2ND of the Playoffs vs Bruins courtesy of <a href="https://twitter.com/Bonsie1951?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Bonsie1951</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/Jim_Ralph?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Jim_Ralph</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/LeafsJelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LeafsJelly</a> <a href="https://t.co/RFMFRSRLMd">pic.twitter.com/RFMFRSRLMd</a>— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1786226960957370555?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Only a last-second (literally) goal from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/morgan-geekie">Morgan Geekie</a> spoiled a shutout for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joseph-woll">Joseph Woll</a>. The Leafs' turnaround in this series could also be traced to Woll taking over from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-samsonov">Ilya Samsonov</a> for the third period of Game 4. Woll has now stopped 54 of 56 shots he has faced over the 2+ games. Barring an injury, there should be little doubt that Woll is the Game 7 starter for the Leafs.
Matthews has now missed two whole games plus part of Game 4 with this mysterious illness or injury. Like many teams, the Leafs are playing coy about why Matthews is out of the lineup. We will have to wait until closer to Game 7 to find out whether he is available, but we'd have to consider him questionable at best for the game.
The Leafs find themselves playing in Game 7 of this series in spite of some anemic special teams. That begs the question of how important special teams is during the playoffs. Carrying the play on 5-on-5 is important, but those moments of capitalizing on the power play while snuffing out the opponent's power plays can tip the series. Granted, the power play has been missing Matthews and Nylander at various points in the series.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Honestly kind of insane the Leafs aren't out already with these numbers <a href="https://t.co/JdVkDVyrlT">pic.twitter.com/JdVkDVyrlT</a>— william nylander 4th-place lady byng voter (@mostlyleafies) <a href="https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1786198937663119667?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Leafs are now 0 for their last 15 playoff power play opportunities at home dating back to 2023— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/1786203692980482399?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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That even-strength play for the Leafs was key in holding the Bruins to just one shot over the first period and more. These playoffs have seen some crazy-low shot totals. I should know, since I've been paying the closest attention to the Canucks/Predators series.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Some people think the ones who yell "SHOOT IT!" are unnecessary… Maybe sometimes they are needed… <a href="https://t.co/GuUVvc5crZ">pic.twitter.com/GuUVvc5crZ</a>— The Hockey Writers (@TheHockeyWriter) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheHockeyWriter/status/1786204598149026077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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For the Bruins, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jeremy-Swayman">Jeremy Swayman</a> stopped 24 of 26 shots. Their lack of scoring and shots (at times) was not his fault, so expect Swayman to start Game 7. Playing in every game except Game 2, Swayman has not allowed more than two goals in each of the five games he has started. The Bruins stand a great chance of winning Game 7 if their offense can wake up, as Swayman has been doing his part.
If the Bruins lose Game 7 on Saturday night, it will be the second year in a row that they've coughed up a 3-1 series lead in the first round. Last season, that happened to them against Florida. They've also lost six consecutive series-clinching games dating back to 2022.
–
Although there could potentially be two Game 7s on Sunday, the Rangers and Hurricanes will start their second-round series that day. Even though the Rangers finished three points ahead of the Hurricanes, my gut tells me that Carolina should be viewed as the slight favorite in this series. That being said, I'm having a hard time determining where each team would have a strong advantage over the other. Maybe the Rangers have a bit more star power, but Carolina was already a high-octane system before loading up at the trade deadline with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evgeny-Kuznetsov">Evgeny Kuznetsov</a>.
That's the great thing about this season, where there doesn't seem to be any clear-cut favorite. After the Rangers and Hurricanes seemed to have little trouble with their first-round opponents, they appear to be a great match for each other. Let's go seven games in this one, shall we?  
–
This week, the NHL has been announcing its three finalists for each major award. On Thursday, the Masterton Trophy finalists were revealed: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/oliver-kylington">Oliver Kylington</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Frederik-Andersen">Frederik Andersen</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-ingram">Connor Ingram</a>. These three are all deserving finalists, given the challenges they have faced. I won't focus on what those challenges were, who should win, or if anyone excluded faced bigger challenges. Instead, I'll discuss the on-ice accomplishments of the two goalies this season. Both were effective for fantasy teams at times, but for different reasons.
Andersen was a prime example of how stashing a player on IR can be extremely beneficial. He played in just six games before being sidelined with a blood-clotting issue, which forced him out of the lineup until March. If you were able to hold onto him for that long or add him from the waiver wire, you were handsomely rewarded – perhaps even during your fantasy playoffs. After his return, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 record with a 1.30 GAA and .951 SV%. He allowed over two goals in a game just once over the 10-game span following his return.
Given Andersen's success following his return and in the playoffs (4-0-1, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV% so far), Andersen's stock for next season is on the rise. With another season under contract in Carolina, Andersen should be in the discussion as a top-10 goalie in next season's fantasy drafts. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pyotr-kochetkov">Pyotr Kochetkov</a> could force the workload into more of a timeshare, although a decreased workload might be beneficial for the 34-year-old Andersen anyway. His days as a 60+ game starter in Toronto have passed. A more reasonable expectation might be 50 games.
Meanwhile, Ingram was a Zero G waiver-wire target during the season. Drafted in just 3 percent of Yahoo leagues, Ingram rose to prominence during the middle of the season, posting five shutouts between November 25 and January 13. He finished tied with three other goalies for the league lead in shutouts with 6 SO. Ingram couldn't maintain his momentum of a strong first half, finishing with a 3.00+ GAA and 41% quality start percentage during the second half. He at least played well enough to wrestle the starting job away from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/karel-vejmelka">Karel Vejmelka</a>, which made him rosterable in many 2+ goalie formats.
The new ownership for the now-Utah franchise could bolster the team with player depth and other resources that weren't available to them in Arizona. A new-look roster, particularly on defense where most players are set to become UFAs or RFAs, could benefit Ingram and Vejmelka next season. Keep an eye on what roster moves the Utah hockey club makes during the offseason.
–
The one series that I was really wrong about was the Colorado/Winnipeg series. I thought this one would go seven games with an underrated Winnipeg team pulling it out with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a> coming up huge in net. Instead, the Jets crashed in five games, and Hellebuyck had a series to forget (<a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1786067732124913808">in spite of him saying otherwise</a>). Hellebuyck allowed at least four goals in each of the five games, finishing the series with a very un-Vezina-like 5.01 GAA and .870 SV%.
On one hand, I wouldn't put much stock into this fantasy-wise, as this was a five-game stretch against one opponent. That opponent had two of the league's top-10 point getters in <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mikko-Rantanen">Mikko Rantanen</a>, as well as 90-point scoring defenseman <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a>. Goals-against average in particular is a function of the defensive play of the team in front of him, so from a pure hockey standpoint I'm not suggesting the poor numbers are all Hellebuyck's fault. I didn't watch a ton of this series, but it sounds like the Jets got pulled away from their structured approach and were drawn into a run-and-gun by the Avalanche.
On the other hand, stay away from picking Hellebuyck too early in next season's drafts. I'm not suggesting Hellebuyck will be a bust, but goalies are usually less of a sure thing than players. Short stretches of bad play that turn into major slumps can really hurt your team. He will probably be a top-5 drafted goalie again, as I don't see any other reason to be convinced otherwise. For example, I would draft him ahead of someone like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-sorokin">Ilya Sorokin</a>.
–
A series I was a little bit wrong about was the Edmonton/Los Angeles series. I picked Edmonton like just about everyone else, but I thought the Kings would put up a bit more of a fight and take the series to seven games. There's lots of blame to go around with the Kings, particularly with how <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Cam-Talbot">Cam Talbot</a> did not come through for them. Yet <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pierre-luc-dubois">Pierre-Luc Dubois</a> stands out as a player who followed up a bust-level regular season with an even more disappointing postseason (1 PT in 5 GP).
The fact that a buyout is even being brought up as a possibility after just one season explains how poorly PLD's tenure in LA has gone after just one season. Yet depending on when the Stanley Cup is awarded, he may qualify for a 1/3 buyout, which means considerable savings for the Kings if they go that route because of when he turns 26. Crazy talk, or is it?
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">So is it a 1/3 or 2/3 buyout? If the cup is awarded June 23, they cannot buy him out until after he turns 26, meaning 2/3 buyout. If cup is awarded before June 22, they could potentially buy him out before he turns 26, making it a 1/3 buyout. <a href="https://t.co/VrNAe9JnO5">https://t.co/VrNAe9JnO5</a>— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) <a href="https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1786116429068304684?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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From a pure hockey standpoint, the Kings might want to give him at least one more season before resorting to drastic measures. Sometimes a player needs at least one season to adjust to new surroundings. In addition, a new coach could be a better fit for him. There’s also the sunk cost theory, where the Kings gave up considerable assets (<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/gabriel-vilardi">Gabriel Vilardi</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-iafallo">Alex Iafallo</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rasmus-kupari">Rasmus Kupari</a>, 2024 2nd-round pick) to acquire him, so they might want to see this through. Dubois' lack of production resulted in a demotion to the fourth line, but an injury could very easily bump him up to the top of the lineup next season. All in all, I'm not drafting him as a sleeper unless it's a very late one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back in some way.
–
As I finish this up, I've just received word that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profile.php">Frozen Tools</a> has a new report that generates data from NHL Edge. I haven't had time to pore over all of this data yet, but it could be useful in the same sense that stats such as pitch speed and exit velocity are used for fantasy baseball. Some more possibilities for deep-dive research on a particular player, especially when comparing one season to another as well as what might lie ahead. Regular-season data only so far – no playoff data.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">🚨NEW FEATURE🚨 We have some data from NHL Edge and we put it in a NEW Report Generator! So far we have FIVE reports, all for skaters Skating Distance Shot Speed Shot Location Skating Speed Zone Time<a href="https://t.co/CbRkCkX7q3">https://t.co/CbRkCkX7q3</a>— Frozen Tools (@FrozenTools) <a href="https://twitter.com/FrozenTools/status/1786174162643321106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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–
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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