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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:a10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"> <channel> <title>Mortgage News Daily</title> <link>http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/</link> <description>Mortgage News Daily</description> <item> <title>Decent Data and Palatable Powell</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05012024</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 20:49:27 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">6632b9086119b23bd630635a</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>Decent Data and Palatable Powell Bonds managed modest to moderate gains after digesting all of the morning's economic data and events.&nbsp; None of the reports were&nbsp;too exciting and one might conclude that traders were slightly more interested in buying bonds regardless of the data.&nbsp; Yields flat-lined in stronger territory ahead of the Fed.&nbsp; The announcement itself was largely as-expected.&nbsp; The same could be said of the press conference, but with the qualification that Powell definitely stopped short of expressing as much concern about inflation as the recent data justified.&nbsp; Rate cuts aren't likely any time soon, but the next move is still seen as much more likely to be a cut rather than a hike.&nbsp; Markets also appreciated Powell's reiteration that the Fed wouldn't hesitate to do what it needed to do based on the data/economy without considering political implications. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment&nbsp; 192k vs 175k f'cast, 208k prev TSY refunding announcement increases in shorter part of the curve no increases in 10yr and up small buyback announced S&amp;P Manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 49.9 f'cast, 51.9 prev ISM Manufacturing 49.2 vs 50.0 f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Prices 60.9 vs 55.0 f'cast, 55.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:59 AM unchanged overnight and modestly stronger after ADP/Treasury.&nbsp; MBS up an eighth.&nbsp; 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.66 09:46 AM Slightly stronger leading up to S&amp;P PMI.&nbsp; No reaction afterward.&nbsp; MBS up 7 ticks (.22).&nbsp; 10yr down 3.2bps at 4.65 10:05 AM No major reaction to 10am data.&nbsp;10yr yields are down 4bps at 4.643 and MBS are up nearly a quarter point. 02:18 PM Modestly stronger after Fed.&nbsp; 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.462.&nbsp; MBS up a quarter point 02:47 PM Additional gains as Powell press conference continues.&nbsp; MBS up half a point.&nbsp; 10yr down 10bps at 4.587</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05012024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/6632b9086119b23bd630635a" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>Mortgage Rates Move Lower After Fed Announcement</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05012024</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 20:08:00 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">6632a2e8d838bd554eafe6ca</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates.&nbsp; The morning's data was perfectly palatable, resulting in modest strength heading into the afternoon's Fed announcement. Contrary to impression given by many news headlines on Fed day, there is rarely any significance to the Fed's actual decision to hike/cut/hold steady at any given meeting by the time the meeting actually happens.&nbsp; Markets will have long since priced in the likely outcome based on economic data and Fed policy transparency. In other words, it was a surprise to no one that the Fed held rates steady at this meeting.&nbsp; Bond traders tuned in for other reasons--mainly to hear what Powell had to say at the 2:30pm ET press conference. There were a few ways Powell could have framed the recent set-backs seen in inflation data.&nbsp; Some analysts thought he might say more to entertain the possibility of rate hike instead of a rate cut.&nbsp; Powell (and, indeed, the Fed announcement itself) definitely acknowledged that inflation data meant a delay for the Fed's next move, but in the press conference, Powell reiterated that the next move was much more likely to be a cut, based on the trajectory of the data.&nbsp;&nbsp; Bonds improved and many mortgage lenders were able to re-issue slightly lower rates compared to the morning levels.&nbsp; The average 30yr fixed rate is still elevated by 2024's standards, but nicely lower compared to yesterday's latest levels.</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05012024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/6632a2e8d838bd554eafe6ca" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>Old vs New Fed Statement With Changes Highlighted</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-05012024</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 18:00:45 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">6632925c6119b23bd63013c3</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into have moved toward better balance. balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its previously announced plans. securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-05012024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/6632925c6119b23bd63013c3" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>TPO, Market Analysis, VOE, Real Estate Search Tools; GSE and USDA News</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05012024</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 15:49:58 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">6632370369546c9e7a000c9f</guid> <dc:creator>Rob Chrisman</dc:creator> <description>“I named my dog ‘5 Miles’ so I can tell people I walk 5 Miles every day.” This morning, I head to Yosemite National Park for some camping, hiking, and biking. National parks receive 325 million visits a year, about 4 million of which are Yosemite’s compared to top U.S. sites like the Blue Ridge Parkway and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, both with over 15 million. While we’re on comparisons and moving around the nation, is the South rising again? Recently built housing units make up the largest share of homes in Austin, Nashville, and San Antonio, all roughly around 5 percent. It's much better than the 1.95 percent across the nation’s 50 largest metros' 75.89 million housing units built over the past two years. Conversely, new homes make up the smallest share of the housing supply in three Northeast metros: Hartford, Buffalo, and Providence. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are saponsored by Essex Mortgage. Essex specializes in providing exceptional mortgage subservicing solutions tailored to meet your specific needs. Looking to capitalize on your excess servicing strip? Check out Essex’s servicing offerings today! Interview with Caruso Home’s Christy Beck and Crib Equity’s Skye Laudari on affordability challenges and solutions from both a builder and product perspective.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Waterfalls form their own microclimates; all that mist coming off the cascading water produces the perfect environment for lush plant growth (and sometimes even wine production, as seen in the Niagara Escarpment). With the right verification waterfall, lenders can create the perfect ecosystem for success, too. That’s why, instead of relying on a single verification of income and employment (VOIE) provider, lenders are increasingly building a cascade of solutions. Read this article for an explanation of how putting consumer-permissioned VOIE data at the top of the waterfall helps lenders nearly double their verification success rate while saving an average of 80% on total verification costs.</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05012024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/6632370369546c9e7a000c9f" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>ARM Loan Share Rises as Borrowers Seek Affordability</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/05012024-mortgage-application-volume</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 13:00:59 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">66320817af52b417a0bdfb13</guid> <dc:creator>Jann Swanson</dc:creator> <description>Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3.0 percent from the previous week and was 1.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Refinancing accounted for 30.2 percent of applications, down from 30.8 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down by 2.0 percent from the one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0 percent compared with the previous week and lagged the volume during the same week in 2023 by 14.0 percent. [purchaseappschart] “Inflation remains stubbornly high, and this trend is convincing markets that rates, including mortgage rates, are going to stay higher for longer. No doubt, this is a headwind for the housing and mortgage markets, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 7.29 percent last week, the highest level since November 2023,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Application volume for both purchases and refinances declined over the week and remain well below last year’s pace. One notable trend is that the ARM share has reached its highest level for the year at 7.8 percent. Prospective homebuyers are looking for ways to improve affordability, and switching to an ARM is one means of doing that, with ARM rates in the mid-6 percent range for loans with an initial fixed period of 5 years.”</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/05012024-mortgage-application-volume">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/66320817af52b417a0bdfb13" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>ADP and Treasury Refunding Announcement Do No Harm</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05012024</link> <pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 12:57:47 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">66324ae06119b23bd62f8e21</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data.&nbsp; Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new month" trading (8:15am is the time of the release and 8:20am is CME open that frequently sees increased volume).All that having been said, ADP is no longer big business when it comes to market movement.&nbsp; We were far more interested in the Treasury announcement, but it too has underwhelmed.&nbsp; Auction sizes remained unchanged in everything 10yrs and up.&nbsp; Increases were focused on the shortest end of the yield curve, which is what you'd probably want as a borrower if rates were really high but might be lower in a few years. (FRN = floating rate notes) Treasury also announced the buyback program, or rather, announced that it would be starting the buybacks first announced back in 2023.&nbsp; At $2bln per week, it's not a huge addition to the bid side of the equation.&nbsp; Bonds have barely budged in response.</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05012024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/66324ae06119b23bd62f8e21" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>More Ammo For Unfriendly Fed, But Data is at Least as Important</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04302024</link> <pubDate>Tue, 30 Apr 2024 20:39:06 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">663165306119b23bd62e535e</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important Bonds began the day flat but lost ground quickly after ECI came in higher than expected.&nbsp; This is the latest in a string of unfriendly data for the bond market.&nbsp; It proves additional ammo for the Fed to table the notion of rate cuts in 2024--something that Powell had already mentioned in his last speech.&nbsp; Even before this data, there was already zero chance of a rate cut tomorrow.&nbsp; As Powell is likely to remind the market, the prospect of rate changes later this year depends entirely on economic data.&nbsp; On that note, Wednesday's reports may provide just as much of a directional impulse as the market's reaction to the Fed.&nbsp; In addition to JOLTS, ISM, and ADP we'll also get the final details on Treasury's quarterly refunding which may include a buyback announcement.&nbsp; It's not that we necessarily expect that to cause a huge reaction, but it adds another layer of complexity to a very busy day. Econ Data / Events Employment Cost Index 1.2 vs 1.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y) 7.3 vs 6.7 f'cast, 6.6 prev FHFA Home Prices (y/y) 7.0 vs 6.5 prev Chicago PMI 37.9 vs 45.0 f'cast, 41.4 prev Consumer Confidence 97.0 vs 104.0 f'cast, 103.1 prev Market Movement Recap 08:35 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.66 after ECI data. 11:29 AM Very sideways after initial weakness.&nbsp; MBS down 7 ticks (.22). and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.656 02:45 PM 10yr yields are up 6.3 bps at 4.677 and MBS are down just over a quarter point 03:25 PM More losses after the 3pm CME close (month-end selling).&nbsp; 10yr up 7.6bps at 4.689.&nbsp; MBS Down 3/8 04:34 PM Going out near the weakest levels with MBS down almost 3/8ths and 10yr yields up 6.4bps at 4.678</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04302024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/663165306119b23bd62e535e" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>Mortgage Rates Back Up And Over 7.5%</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04302024</link> <pubDate>Tue, 30 Apr 2024 19:47:00 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">66314df3ad76efbce4fda70a</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons.&nbsp; A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context and qualification.&nbsp; Some online advertisements (especially among builders) could still be showing rates in the high 6's.&nbsp; Some borrowers will be seeing rates of 7.625 or higher.&nbsp; Loans with less than 25% down will have higher and higher costs, either in terms of upfront closing costs or the rate itself.&nbsp; Investment properties incur significant extra costs as do lower credit scores (you start getting hit for anything under 780 in many cases these days).&nbsp;&nbsp; These are just a few considerations to illustrate the point that a 30yr fixed rate isn't necessarily apples to apples. Fortunately, we can control for most of the variables by only ever looking at the same scenario, free from most of the subjective adjustments.&nbsp; We can also control for the practice of advertising lower rates by quoting them with implied discount points (extra upfront cost that goes toward "buying down" the prevailing rate). That's one of the reasons the MND index is higher than Freddie Mac's weekly survey. All that to say, 7.5%+ might not be the exact rate you see today, but after adjusting for everything we can control, that's the most prevalently quoted top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate again today.&nbsp; It's the 3rd time we've seen 7.5 in the past 2 weeks. Today's increase followed the release or the Employment Cost Index--one of the economic reports the Fed watches closely in determining rate policy.&nbsp; In not so many words, it suggested higher momentum in price pressures than previously expected.&nbsp; This wasn't necessarily out of line with any of the other recent inflation-related reports, but the confirmation was worth a bit of extra weakness in rates nonetheless.</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04302024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/66314df3ad76efbce4fda70a" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>More Data, More Inflation, More Weakness in Bonds</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04302024</link> <pubDate>Tue, 30 Apr 2024 16:26:05 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">66312a986119b23bd62de42a</guid> <dc:creator>Matthew Graham</dc:creator> <description>Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April.&nbsp; While it might be an overstatement to say we're going out with a bang, today's Employment Cost Index (ECI) is at least a loud pop.&nbsp; ECI--a measure of labor costs and compensation (including benefits)--is not a report that had been on the trader radar as a big ticket market mover until Powell began mentioning it regularly in the past few years.&nbsp; Today's installment painted an unfriendly picture for inflation/rates by suggesting the progress seen through Q4 was reversing in a major way in Q1. The bond market&nbsp;reaction was clear and immediate at 8:30am, even if it wasn't as huge as we might see for a CPI or NFP that suggested hotter inflation or spending power.&nbsp;&nbsp;</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04302024">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/66312a986119b23bd62de42a" type="image" /> </item> <item> <title>Home Prices Apparently Don't Care About High Rates</title> <link>https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04302024-home-prices</link> <pubDate>Tue, 30 Apr 2024 16:24:00 GMT</pubDate> <guid isPermaLink="false">66311c156b0db2c2470ae101</guid> <dc:creator>Jann Swanson</dc:creator> <description>Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the Housing Market Index (HMI) produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed annual price growth in the 7 percent range. Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a non-seasonally adjusted 6.4 percent annual gain in February, compared to a 6.0 percent rise the previous month. The 10-City and 20-City Composites rose 8.0 percent and 7.3 percent respectively, up from 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent increases in January. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year appreciation among the 20 cities at 11.4 percent followed by Chicago and Detroit, each posting 8.9 percent growth. &nbsp;Portland still holds the lowest position at 2.2 percent. The three non-seasonally adjusted indices posted monthly gains for the first time since November. The National Index rose 0.6 percent, the 20-City was up 0.9 percent, and the 10-City Composite grew 1.0 percent. &nbsp;After seasonal adjustment, the increases were 0.4 percent for the National Index and 0.6 percent for each of the composites. &nbsp; “U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real &amp; Digital Assets at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6.0 percent in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.&nbsp; &nbsp;For the third consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with&nbsp; four currently at all-time highs: San Diego, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and New York. On a seasonal adjusted basis, our National, 10- and 20- City Composite indices continue to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”</description> <author>Mortgage News Daily</author> <source url="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04302024-home-prices">http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full</source> <enclosure url="https://reports.mortgagenewsdaily.com/image/article/66311c156b0db2c2470ae101" type="image" /> </item> </channel></rss>
