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<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 23:44:49 +0000</pubDate>
<lastBuildDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 23:44:49 +0000</lastBuildDate>
<title>NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)</title>
<description>National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)</description>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/</link>
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<title>NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)</title>
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<title>NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion</title>
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<![CDATA[ <br />
000<br />
AXNT20 KNHC 162344<br />
TWDAT <br />
<br />
Tropical Weather Discussion<br />
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />
0005 UTC Fri May 17 2024<br />
<br />
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br />
<br />
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />
2330 UTC.<br />
<br />
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...<br />
<br />
The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W SW to 07N22W where the ITCZ<br />
begins and then contiues SW to 01N38W. Widely scattered moderate<br />
convection is from 0N to 08N between 10W and 20W. Scattered<br />
moderate convection is from 0N to 10N between 43W and 56W. <br />
<br />
...GULF OF MEXICO...<br />
<br />
The tail of a cold front extends from Venice, Florida NW to 27N84W where<br />
it transitions to a warm front that reaches NE of Houston, Texas.<br />
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the NE Gulf north of 27N<br />
being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow. West of<br />
87W, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the SE and seas are<br />
moderate. East of 87W, winds are light to gentle and seas are<br />
slight. Otherwise, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural <br />
fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay <br />
of Campeche.<br />
<br />
For the forecast, the warm front will continue lifting northward <br />
through Fri, perhaps stall near the coast. A series of upper- <br />
level disturbances moving from W to E should help keep active <br />
weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. <br />
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, <br />
except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and <br />
the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken <br />
Sun into early next week as the gradient relaxes. <br />
<br />
...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br />
<br />
The gradient related to high pressure north of the area is <br />
supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and<br />
moderate to fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are<br />
moderate to 6 ft in both the SW and NW Caribbean, and slight<br />
elsewhere where winds are gentle to moderate from the east to <br />
southeast. Otherwise, haze due to agricultural fires in Central <br />
America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean while smoke is<br />
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. <br />
<br />
For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will <br />
persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening <br />
into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will <br />
pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia <br />
through Sun evening. Moderate to rough seas are expected with <br />
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere <br />
through early next week. <br />
<br />
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br />
<br />
A cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward to Boyton Beach, <br />
Florida. A swath of scattered showers and isolated tstms are ahead<br />
of the front, currently affecting the central Bahamas offshore <br />
waters and the north-central offshores between 63W and 68W.<br />
Gentle to moderate W to NW winds follow the front along with<br />
moderate seas to 7 ft. Ahead of the front, N of 26N and to 62W,<br />
winds are moderate to fresh from the SW and seas are moderate to <br />
rough to 9 ft. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is<br />
under the influence of the Azores High and associated ridge, which<br />
is being intersected by a dissipating stationary front that<br />
extends from 31N44W to 22N57W. The ridge is providing light to<br />
gentle winds in the central subtropical waters and gentle to<br />
moderate NE winds across the NE subtropical waters. Seas are<br />
moderate to 7 ft across these two regions. In the central tropical<br />
Atlantic, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, trade winds are<br />
moderate to fresh and seas moderate. <br />
<br />
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near <br />
31N68W to 27N76W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it reaches <br />
from near 31N65W to 26N74W Fri night, from near 31N63W to 26N70W <br />
early Sat afternoon and shift east of 55W by early Sun evening. <br />
Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue <br />
through Fri afternoon, then at fresh speeds Fri night diminishing <br />
Sat afternoon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the<br />
front. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as the front <br />
dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are <br />
expected through Sun. <br />
<br />
$$<br />
Ramos<br />
]]>
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<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 23:44:49 +0000</pubDate>
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