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  1. <?xml version='1.0' encoding='UTF-8'?><?xml-stylesheet href="http://www.blogger.com/styles/atom.css" type="text/css"?><feed xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom' xmlns:openSearch='http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/' xmlns:blogger='http://schemas.google.com/blogger/2008' xmlns:georss='http://www.georss.org/georss' xmlns:gd="http://schemas.google.com/g/2005" xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059</id><updated>2024-04-01T23:11:16.206-07:00</updated><category term="Commentary"/><category term="Economists"/><category term="Monetary Policy"/><category term="Inflation"/><category term="Regulation"/><category term="Finance"/><category term="Politics and economics"/><category term="Taxes"/><category term="Academic Articles"/><category term="Financial Reform"/><category term="Health economics"/><category term="Macro"/><category term="Banking"/><category term="Environment"/><category term="Stimulus"/><category term="Energy"/><category term="Growth"/><category term="Debt"/><category term="Trade"/><category term="Interesting Papers"/><category term="Thesis topics"/><category term="Nobel"/><category term="Unemployment"/><category term="Op-eds"/><category term="Fiscal Theory"/><category term="European Debt Crisis"/><category term="Videos"/><category term="pandemic"/><category term="Euro"/><category term="Inequality"/><category term="Social Programs"/><category term="housing"/><category term="Cancel culture"/><category term="Talks"/><category term="Essays"/><category term="Interviews"/><category term="Micro vs. macro"/><category term="Cronyism"/><category term="Freedom"/><category term="Labor"/><category term="Teaching"/><category term="nepotism"/><category term="off-topic"/><category term="Immigration"/><category term="Trading"/><category term="academic freedom"/><category term="art"/><category term="econometrics"/><category term="education"/><category term="Podcasts"/><category term="writing"/><category term="CPNS"/><category term="Posts to other blogs"/><category term="negative interest rates"/><title type='text'>Free Two</title><subtitle type='html'></subtitle><link rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/'/><link rel='hub' href='http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/'/><link rel='next' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default?start-index=26&amp;max-results=25'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><generator version='7.00' uri='http://www.blogger.com'>Blogger</generator><openSearch:totalResults>451</openSearch:totalResults><openSearch:startIndex>1</openSearch:startIndex><openSearch:itemsPerPage>25</openSearch:itemsPerPage><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-8851029621777592334</id><published>2023-08-05T06:05:00.003-07:00</published><updated>2023-08-05T06:05:44.024-07:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="CPNS"/><title type='text'>Prediksi Soal TWK TIU TKP Persiapan Seleksi CPNS PPPK 2023/2024</title><content type='html'>&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiIEgmpW5_4moOwKXEfXX3peJrtXfsdh-l7mO1WaW80ekPfZKZVfQdHQSqzMj9bFjhdzhDK9JPokVj-necgu6UkmvDGIqQ7KyGRHs7h6i17W4mn59zAdfAB4b6pXdckr_DC36YJR34rZTylPnZEpLpsN8gTmfwrfzk7PU2urpvXORItGgd8ZNV2IHydEw/s830/Ilustasi-CPNS-2023-4.jpg&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;466&quot; data-original-width=&quot;830&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiIEgmpW5_4moOwKXEfXX3peJrtXfsdh-l7mO1WaW80ekPfZKZVfQdHQSqzMj9bFjhdzhDK9JPokVj-necgu6UkmvDGIqQ7KyGRHs7h6i17W4mn59zAdfAB4b6pXdckr_DC36YJR34rZTylPnZEpLpsN8gTmfwrfzk7PU2urpvXORItGgd8ZNV2IHydEw/s16000/Ilustasi-CPNS-2023-4.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Kabar gembira bagi masyarakat yang menunggu kabar pembukaan CPNS 2023. Pasalnya, seleksi CPNS 2023 akan segera dibuka dalam waktu dekat ini.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Berdasarkan pernyataan resmi dari Menteri Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negara dan Reformasi Birokrasi (Menpan RB) Abdullah Azwar Anas, CPNS 2023 akan dibuka pada September mendatang.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Info terbarunya, Pemerintah telah menetapkan sebanyak 572.474 formasi untuk PPPK dan CPNS 2023.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Padahal total kebutuhan ASN nasional 2023 yang dibeberkan sebelumnya adalah sebanyak 1.030.751 untuk PPPK dan CPNS 2023 baik di pemerintah pusat maupun pemerintah daerah.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Berikut rincian formasi terbaru PPPK dan CPNS 2023&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;1. Pemerintah Pusat: 78.861&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;&lt;li&gt;CPNS: 28.903&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;PPPK: 49.968&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;2. Pemerintah Daerah: 493.613&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;&lt;li&gt;PPPK Guru: 296.084&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;PPPK Tenaga Kesehatan: 154.672&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;PPPK Tenaga Teknis: 42.857&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Oleh sebab itu perlu ada nya persiapan untuk menghadapi seleksi SKD maupun SKB dalam mengikuti CPNS dan PPPK 2023 nanti, berikut ini adalah kumpulan soal SKD dan SKB seleksi CPNS 2023.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Prediksi Soal TWK TIU TKP Persiapan Seleksi CPNS PPPK 2023/2024&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TWK (tes wawasan kebangsaan), TIU (tes intelegensi umum), dan TKP (tes karakteristik pribadi)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;&lt;li&gt;Rangkuman TWK (tes wawasan kebangsaan) 2023&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Rangkuman TIU (tes intelegensi umum)&amp;nbsp;2023&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Rangkuman TKP (tes karakteristik pribadi)&amp;nbsp;2023&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Rangkuman Mater dan Soal Dapat Mengunjungi &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.edukasicampus.com/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Edukasi Campus&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/8851029621777592334/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2023/08/prediksi-soal-twk-tiu-tkp-persiapan.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8851029621777592334'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8851029621777592334'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2023/08/prediksi-soal-twk-tiu-tkp-persiapan.html' title='Prediksi Soal TWK TIU TKP Persiapan Seleksi CPNS PPPK 2023/2024'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiIEgmpW5_4moOwKXEfXX3peJrtXfsdh-l7mO1WaW80ekPfZKZVfQdHQSqzMj9bFjhdzhDK9JPokVj-necgu6UkmvDGIqQ7KyGRHs7h6i17W4mn59zAdfAB4b6pXdckr_DC36YJR34rZTylPnZEpLpsN8gTmfwrfzk7PU2urpvXORItGgd8ZNV2IHydEw/s72-c/Ilustasi-CPNS-2023-4.jpg" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-5196659234692868034</id><published>2022-12-30T08:22:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:01.673-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Banking"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="negative interest rates"/><title type='text'>Fiscal-monetary interaction</title><content type='html'>&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6ag6mqb2sUrSj3R122qWHwIGtCvJaHjaZglKhTJLdWLLYo8yTz3e35s5bUoWIP7bp08u9N-PJ57oUsmbDJ87uXjM0fLtfHpdmXkchNunDlFwqrmRlc9HpE_BQRE5IT2bJOQhCcILjHhLrz3iezqNls5l0Q4_h5uWfG55w9jnhaotN8NNPvnBlXG8/s1168/fredgraph-79.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6ag6mqb2sUrSj3R122qWHwIGtCvJaHjaZglKhTJLdWLLYo8yTz3e35s5bUoWIP7bp08u9N-PJ57oUsmbDJ87uXjM0fLtfHpdmXkchNunDlFwqrmRlc9HpE_BQRE5IT2bJOQhCcILjHhLrz3iezqNls5l0Q4_h5uWfG55w9jnhaotN8NNPvnBlXG8/w640-h246/fredgraph-79.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An email correspondent sent the &lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;above graph.&lt;/a&gt; The title is [Federal Reserve]&amp;nbsp;Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Treasury pays the Fed interest on the Fed&#39;s asset holdings. The Fed pays interest on reserves to banks and to other financial institutions that have, effectively, deposits at the Fed. As long as Treasury interest is greater than interest the Fed pays, the Fed makes money. It spends some, and returns the interest to the Treasury. The Fed also issues cash, which pays no interest, so the Fed makes steady money on the difference between interest bearing assets and the zero return of cash.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But when short-term rates the Fed pays rise sufficiently above the Fed&#39;s interest earnings, the Fed loses money. It stops sending interest earnings to the Treasury. The graph is in essence the amount the Fed owes the Treasury in this scheme. Usually the Fed makes some money -- the graph goes up -- then the Fed pays out to the Treasury and the graph goes back to near zero. When the Fed loses money, the Treasury doesn&#39;t send a check. Instead, the Fed accumulates its losses, $16 billion so far. The Fed then will wait to make this amount back again before it starts sending money back to the Treasury.&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For broad brush macroeconomics, the Fed and Treasury are left and right pockets of the federal government. As interest rates rise, the government is going to pay more interest on its debt.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Fed&#39;s massive QE operation has undone a lot of the Treasury&#39;s long-term debt, which would have kept interest costs from rising so fast. So, really, this is just a measure of the extra interest on the debt that QE has caused. &amp;nbsp;The Fed and Treasury like to think of themselves as more separate, so there are political and institutional implications. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;$16 billion isn&#39;t a huge amount in today&#39;s Washington, but the graph is interesting on a process starting to get under way. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;No, the Fed is not about to go bankrupt. The Fed can print money, so conventional bankruptcy that happens when you can&#39;t pay bills simply cannot happen. If the Fed had no assets at all, it could simply print money -- create new reserves -- to pay the interest on outstanding reserves. That would only come to an end if the Fed had to soak up reserves or cash by selling assets to avoid inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The accounting is a little weird. The Fed only counts interest income, and ignores mark to market values. So this is the accumulated amount of interest received on the Fed&#39;s assets minus interest paid on reserves. The Fed has, of course, taken a bath in mark to market values as interest rates rise. The Fed doesn&#39;t worry about it, because it can hold the securities to maturity. However, this means the Fed will likely have to hold them to maturity. The Fed now has &lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPANWW&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;$8.5 trillion of assets&lt;/a&gt;. A speedy &quot;quantitative tightening,&quot; selling those assets, would force it to recognize mark to market losses. So don&#39;t count on that event. Fortunately, in my view of the world, QE didn&#39;t do much but shorten the maturity structure of outstanding debt, so the lack of QT won&#39;t be missed. Others disagree.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Alyssa Anderson, Philippa Marks, Dave Na, Bernd Schlusche, and Zeynep Senyuz at the Fed have a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/an-analysis-of-the-interest-rate-risk-of-the-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-part-2-20220715.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;very nice analysis of this situation, along with explanations of how it all works&lt;/a&gt;. They use the following projections of interest rates&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig1-3174.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;360&quot; data-original-width=&quot;800&quot; height=&quot;288&quot; src=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig1-3174.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;With those projections, here&#39;s what happens to the Fed&#39;s interest income and expense:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig3-3174.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;348&quot; data-original-width=&quot;800&quot; height=&quot;278&quot; src=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig3-3174.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Notice how interest income dips 2022-2025 even though interest rates are rising. The Fed is still sitting on old bonds with very low interest rates. Interest income starts rising when these mature, and the Fed reinvests in new bonds with higher interest rates. Interest expense largely follows the reasonably rosy scenario that the funds rate eases as inflation goes away. (Top left graph looks like botton right graph.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Their bottom line&amp;nbsp;&lt;table align=&quot;center&quot; cellpadding=&quot;0&quot; cellspacing=&quot;0&quot; class=&quot;tr-caption-container&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;&quot;&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig4-3174.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;348&quot; data-original-width=&quot;800&quot; height=&quot;278&quot; src=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fig4-3174.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td class=&quot;tr-caption&quot; style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Remittance to the treasury stop for a few years, while interest expense is greater than earnings. But then pick up again once the Fed can roll over its asset portfolio. The &quot;deferred asset,&quot; which is the inverse of my top graph rises, rises considerably above today&#39;s $16 billion, but then goes away once the Fed rolls over its assets and interest earnings recover.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;All well and good, but the grumpy economist can think of plenty of ways this can go wrong! Suppose inflation does not fade away and substantial interest rate hikes are needed. Suppose, for example, we replay 1980, when short-term interest rates shot up to nearly 20%. Except this time with a huge balance sheet, and paying interest on reserves?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq9j-ltswm1rMoX7CyW4VVnzpRLgjffDiQg1Dam2SP__9Y8KZTClzrJN-GkCyr527GQ8UuaXmsFoqZmvpVQ7QiS2umENB62kBH0m7AhIXVAsEbnOaIjyo_COjRePQFm2NFIBDUuhXfLxePtrxAOH3SmNczSp4xQU2XXMRpTKZXA4ehezyFDfdKHag/s1168/fredgraph-80.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq9j-ltswm1rMoX7CyW4VVnzpRLgjffDiQg1Dam2SP__9Y8KZTClzrJN-GkCyr527GQ8UuaXmsFoqZmvpVQ7QiS2umENB62kBH0m7AhIXVAsEbnOaIjyo_COjRePQFm2NFIBDUuhXfLxePtrxAOH3SmNczSp4xQU2XXMRpTKZXA4ehezyFDfdKHag/w640-h246/fredgraph-80.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;The Fed&#39;s &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20221229/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;$8.5 trillion assets&lt;/a&gt; correspond to about $6.2 trillion of interest-paying liabilities, including $4 trillion reserves, plus $2.3 trillion currency. Even assuming people still will hold that much currency as interest rates spike (they won&#39;t, and didn&#39;t in 1980), $6.2 trillion times 15% equals nearly $1 trillion of interest expense. Now we are starting to talk some real money. And the Fed&#39;s maturity shortening exercise will start to bite the Treasury as well.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;We now have also seen that negative long-term bond rates are possible. A perpetually negatively sloped yield curve is also possible. If we go back to that, central banks holding long bonds and issuing cash will have to rethink their model.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The real fiscal issue will be how higher interest rates lead to higher interest costs on the federal debt. The Fed here shortened the debt, making that issue bite a little sooner than it otherwise would have. But the main problem is the overall amount of debt and how short term that is already.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;HT thanks to some anonymous correspondents who helped me puzzle out how this works (I hope I got it right) and pointed me to the Fed study.&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/5196659234692868034/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/fiscal-monetary-interaction.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5196659234692868034'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5196659234692868034'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/fiscal-monetary-interaction.html' title='Fiscal-monetary interaction'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6ag6mqb2sUrSj3R122qWHwIGtCvJaHjaZglKhTJLdWLLYo8yTz3e35s5bUoWIP7bp08u9N-PJ57oUsmbDJ87uXjM0fLtfHpdmXkchNunDlFwqrmRlc9HpE_BQRE5IT2bJOQhCcILjHhLrz3iezqNls5l0Q4_h5uWfG55w9jnhaotN8NNPvnBlXG8/s72-w640-h246-c/fredgraph-79.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3008607740328449313</id><published>2022-12-28T09:16:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:02.142-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inequality"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Social Programs"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Taxes"/><title type='text'>Calomiris on Gramm Ekelund and Early on Income Distribution.  </title><content type='html'>&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot;&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Charles Calomiris has a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-of-american-inequality-review-believe-your-eyes-not-the-statistics-11672095284&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;splendid WSJ review&lt;/a&gt; of a great book, &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.amazon.com/Myth-American-Inequality-Government-Biases/dp/1538167387&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Myth of American Inequality&lt;/a&gt;&quot; by&amp;nbsp;by Phil Gramm, Robert Ekelund and John Early.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is a &quot;&#39;a truth universally acknowledged,&#39; according to the Economist magazine in 2020&quot; that&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;little progress has been made in raising average American living standards since the 1960s; that poverty has not been substantially reduced over the period; that the median household’s standard of living has not increased in recent years and inequality is currently high and rising&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Most of all the last one.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;All of this is false. Most of all the last one.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;1) &lt;b&gt;Income. &lt;/b&gt;The central jaw-dropping, astonishing fact: &lt;i&gt;The statistics you read about income and income inequality ignore taxes and transfers. &lt;/i&gt;By doing so, of course, they create a problem that is immune to its purported solution!&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Especially on the low end, transfers including in-kind transfers (housing, medical payments, etc.) are a huge part of consumption and properly measured income.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh_ttXkrYe6o1p2URDTr-aXZqOTvkztcBOffaznLbK57KPL_gHIjKxUJnuP8s40h-EQ9BlrJlxQVkA6G8v_NTaHb72SXFsL92c438Kybu4YWDswcYNZwvP-auyBS2Xkb33T749Og-D4A9D6ZiJN3_QE7fpXXHT6iySBbsQpRf9LHEPDbxhsjH9Zno/s1324/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.16.07%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1242&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1324&quot; height=&quot;375&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh_ttXkrYe6o1p2URDTr-aXZqOTvkztcBOffaznLbK57KPL_gHIjKxUJnuP8s40h-EQ9BlrJlxQVkA6G8v_NTaHb72SXFsL92c438Kybu4YWDswcYNZwvP-auyBS2Xkb33T749Og-D4A9D6ZiJN3_QE7fpXXHT6iySBbsQpRf9LHEPDbxhsjH9Zno/w400-h375/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.16.07%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;400&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Pay especially attention on the left hand side of the graph. Actual income is essentially flat in the first three quintiles of earned income.&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm58imIzy1M6l6y5AJVcBDKk6KXMAeJGz5gZIvTyP7elyB3P1zGKFOi2_K1jLmXv84BJheuidg5-TiJJxtFqNZd52ksg6uKQ3tvTuVS-4oJsypo2jcM6Tvp5RUlHXqurU0ze58rvbKzYvTySbR2aRkHHfT49UzkFMJkoB2nvDUvZp2EHJjcdhY1WI/s1238/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.23.55%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;914&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1238&quot; height=&quot;236&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm58imIzy1M6l6y5AJVcBDKk6KXMAeJGz5gZIvTyP7elyB3P1zGKFOi2_K1jLmXv84BJheuidg5-TiJJxtFqNZd52ksg6uKQ3tvTuVS-4oJsypo2jcM6Tvp5RUlHXqurU0ze58rvbKzYvTySbR2aRkHHfT49UzkFMJkoB2nvDUvZp2EHJjcdhY1WI/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.23.55%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Gramm Ekelund and Early are fond of quintile bar graphs, like this one. The bars are pretty flat from the lowest to third decile, and transfer income is a big part of the story.&amp;nbsp;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioceSoEM_kjQNfbur2nwm7zt1OFF6t6-9XPkQ8YqukmFC4x6xGBzO0PdMqcZAuPDvobIGwVUzOh6BpreOCXstYbQ5mGd-8J_WCNA15bl25_5pQaEytWHQw42yj7SgnTHBS9pdRd90iOxLPIGGZ7Xx5gsU1s-kV8qyLTJzeeBYb08zp5xC8RSEdgy0/s1230/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.16.56%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1194&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1230&quot; height=&quot;311&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioceSoEM_kjQNfbur2nwm7zt1OFF6t6-9XPkQ8YqukmFC4x6xGBzO0PdMqcZAuPDvobIGwVUzOh6BpreOCXstYbQ5mGd-8J_WCNA15bl25_5pQaEytWHQw42yj7SgnTHBS9pdRd90iOxLPIGGZ7Xx5gsU1s-kV8qyLTJzeeBYb08zp5xC8RSEdgy0/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.16.56%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;More, do just a little bit of adjustment for household size. Single person households are obviously going to have less income than two-earner households. Households with children have less per capita income, but people with kids may be more likely to work. How does it work out? In per capita terms (middle) actual income, including taxes and transfers is almost completely flat in the first four deciles.&amp;nbsp;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;2)&lt;b&gt; Work.&lt;/b&gt; Well, a good anti-capitalist might say, this just proves the point. Look how dreadful the distribution of income before taxes and transfers is, and admittedly getting wider. Raw capitalism is destroying the poor, and only the maginficence of the welfare state is keeping them going. One answer might be, ok, but let&#39;s at least measure how we&#39;re doing rather than just keep publishing the false statistic as if we&#39;re doing nothing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;But there is a better answer. Why is it that the pre-transfer earnings of the lower quintile are so low, and pre-transfer inequality getting larger? &lt;i&gt;Because they aren&#39;t working.&lt;/i&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwnFMUaeTXyV7QofoiSEosbY_cgCZG02qxkfEAi_0LGAC8v3v-jjV9yPfS2keUuFrQE2BbeEwJ0sLFhCq9Ew-pLvyevsOjVKSdTlEWupJ9PnB6r8hyRoz2kK_7XdQgTAU7ylneI-4NSncCrBbTpGRroC92oVQslZNd1-zXdsLq8ZVzWQbncGPsvco/s1082/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.23.25%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1060&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1082&quot; height=&quot;313&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwnFMUaeTXyV7QofoiSEosbY_cgCZG02qxkfEAi_0LGAC8v3v-jjV9yPfS2keUuFrQE2BbeEwJ0sLFhCq9Ew-pLvyevsOjVKSdTlEWupJ9PnB6r8hyRoz2kK_7XdQgTAU7ylneI-4NSncCrBbTpGRroC92oVQslZNd1-zXdsLq8ZVzWQbncGPsvco/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.23.25%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Average hours per week 17.3 vs. 38.6; workers per household from 0.2 to 2.0. Sort of mechanically, if you don&#39;t work you don&#39;t have earned income.&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Why has work collapsed in the bottom decile? Here we might have a big debate. $11.76 per hour (2017) isn&#39;t a lot. But the previous graphs certainly contain a suggestion worth pursuing: &lt;i&gt;The effective marginal tax rate in the lowest three quintiles is effectively 100%. Earn a dollar, and lose a dollar of benefits. Why work? &lt;/i&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Gramm Ekelund and Early are careful, and don&#39;t make any causal assertions here. They don&#39;t really even stress the fact popping from the table as much as I have. But the fact is a fact, a nearly 100% tax rate + an income effect isn&#39;t a positive for labor supply, and the amount of work in lower quintiles has plummeted. &amp;nbsp;This is a book about facing facts and this one is undeniable.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;One might also complain that people don&#39;t value in-kind transfers. Medicaid is expensive to the government and awful. Government provided housing isn&#39;t great and it isn&#39;t where you might want to live. Gramm Ekelund and Early value transfers at cost. If $20,000 worth of Medicaid is only worth $5,000 to the recipient, there is a problem with Medicaid!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;3)&lt;b&gt; Time. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/b&gt;The Standard Narrative says that things are getting worse over time, and people are stuck in their income bins. Neither is true. Actual income, after transfers, and properly accounting for inflation -- has not been stagnating or declining over time. One reason is, again, the simple failure to account for the enormous increase in transfers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigughQWIev6gluNdJmTWiVWUM4yhrAn7WXjgruR0vlEjKvQIyvFb7ogulWeWxMkFyyOVhqPKT9AVUKLVa6Z1-IyR0bcGIeTmkdGxQocbavjosObPmXREmpj8z2loD5rK5VylJw6lIje1gSrpEKTUmzkwdjaCcgfSxcstV7y0gq18BIrs8MFqlmMkc/s1574/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.18.14%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1574&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1324&quot; height=&quot;400&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigughQWIev6gluNdJmTWiVWUM4yhrAn7WXjgruR0vlEjKvQIyvFb7ogulWeWxMkFyyOVhqPKT9AVUKLVa6Z1-IyR0bcGIeTmkdGxQocbavjosObPmXREmpj8z2loD5rK5VylJw6lIje1gSrpEKTUmzkwdjaCcgfSxcstV7y0gq18BIrs8MFqlmMkc/w336-h400/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.18.14%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;336&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Again, the first three deciles are dramatic. The decline in earned income in the top is indeed worrisome but it comes as above from a decline in work. Discuss among yourselves where that comes from.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;A second feature is that the CPI does a poor job of measuring living standards across long periods of time, because it doesn&#39;t account well for quality improvement and the fact that people shift consumption to cheaper items. Do you really want a small 1970s house, a Ford Pinto, and medical care that can&#39;t cure most cancers?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5jqvOgoALfN41ZjbdHCllBYlZIUi4xNKjY9Y3d3xj-xALDRfk6O29fyvQiIYccOHS6D9gDoUcIDUB48HN-9xXlqrdbJeqrWiUNilsyV9b2Q7jDB_H8SceDbAYm_B1snPScNsaU2TZ_V-GqOz1PnrOb94uDU4iVMgpCxAqTl_uic-usVKnVvFh_xU/s1280/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.24.54%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1168&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1280&quot; height=&quot;292&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5jqvOgoALfN41ZjbdHCllBYlZIUi4xNKjY9Y3d3xj-xALDRfk6O29fyvQiIYccOHS6D9gDoUcIDUB48HN-9xXlqrdbJeqrWiUNilsyV9b2Q7jDB_H8SceDbAYm_B1snPScNsaU2TZ_V-GqOz1PnrOb94uDU4iVMgpCxAqTl_uic-usVKnVvFh_xU/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.24.54%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Bottom line, here is the fact:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicgKRyfWmGds3jX3vkyZ_N9bRd_tE5cB3DzMgc94XvrU7FoFUJCx_dDf-g4QD8b11gT8Z087McGiqPuf4PElfgeNDwTB8pozr0b2Lsggta3M2M82ZC8NGkUMewNPQt1ATUpEiY_upoIOFO2gajtqbF6BKyXx2sAs1BpsO7FkeLoWXBbsOC1CitVTU/s1310/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.25.23%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1018&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1310&quot; height=&quot;249&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicgKRyfWmGds3jX3vkyZ_N9bRd_tE5cB3DzMgc94XvrU7FoFUJCx_dDf-g4QD8b11gT8Z087McGiqPuf4PElfgeNDwTB8pozr0b2Lsggta3M2M82ZC8NGkUMewNPQt1ATUpEiY_upoIOFO2gajtqbF6BKyXx2sAs1BpsO7FkeLoWXBbsOC1CitVTU/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.25.23%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Oh, and being stuck is also not true. There is a lot of turnover of quintiles, and overall growth does help even those who stay in the same quintile. And, as you might guess, the most likely to underperform their parents are the kids of the super-rich. Elon Musk&#39;s kids are very unlikely to do as well as he did, and there is a lot of luck in being super rich.&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_lqioyM1yRWDNPiuvJnFCm1TEpwLcIqc7lCffwBoiZ7RZq2jgVBM6L4s2Yts6LcUvlJnwtFhPnzz2OeR8MbADSg0RpKc-TbYAVmc-ttV0FxVodbuEObhMpg4e_4AP_mz39UiApgCBXVwutf1OINAKIFzlZ53Q03aCD3aNF7FcwXafPYNcZOpGXQ/s1340/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.28.06%20AM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1194&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1340&quot; height=&quot;285&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_lqioyM1yRWDNPiuvJnFCm1TEpwLcIqc7lCffwBoiZ7RZq2jgVBM6L4s2Yts6LcUvlJnwtFhPnzz2OeR8MbADSg0RpKc-TbYAVmc-ttV0FxVodbuEObhMpg4e_4AP_mz39UiApgCBXVwutf1OINAKIFzlZ53Q03aCD3aNF7FcwXafPYNcZOpGXQ/s320/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.28.06%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;320&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;There is lots, lots more in the book, including the fortunes of the super-wealthy. There is also a lot on &quot;poverty.&quot; As you can guess official definitions of poverty leave out many transfers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;As Calomiris sums up,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;This book is written in straightforward American English, not in economic think-tank jargon. It shows clearly how each element of the analysis (taxation, transfers, inflation adjustment) contributes to its conclusions. Graphs and tables are comprehensive and comprehensible. The style is lively and lucid...&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;The analysis probes deeply to demonstrate the robustness of its conclusions..&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;Most important, the authors don’t clutter their analysis with contentious approaches to measurement, and they limit their policy recommendations to those that flow self-evidently from the facts they document. It is encouraging that three disparate economists can together write an objective book about the measurement of living standards, poverty and inequality without engaging in partisan advocacy that undermines their findings. (“While we each have our opinions and political views,” writes Mr. Gramm in a preface, “we share a desire to get the facts straight.”)&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;My sense is that the book is not having the impact it should. Economists love complex empirical work, and the mainstream media does not, ahem, appreciate a book that so transparently demolishes the Standard Narrative.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It&#39;s a great read.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;*****&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Update: &lt;/i&gt;Much subsequent discussion here and on twitter revolves around just what&#39;s included and omitted in &quot;income&quot; by various authors. An email correspondent, frustrated with Blogger&#39;s comment feature (me too) sends the following response to Joe Smith, below:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-family: Calibri;&quot;&gt;A place to start is a 2018 &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/reassessing-facts-about-inequality-poverty-redistribution&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Cato paper by John Early&lt;/a&gt; &quot;Reassessing the Facts about Inequality, Poverty, and Redistribution&quot;. It includes a version of Figure 2.1 above, explanations of major categories, and lists sources.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I went to Early&#39;s very nice paper, and here are some excerpts:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;&lt;li&gt;Census money income estimates explicitly exclude the following:4&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The monetary value of benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), more commonly known as food stamps&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Free or subsidized medical care such as Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Free, subsidized, or controlled rent or other “affordable housing” schemes&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Heating subsidies&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Free or reduced-fee social services such as daycare, tax preparation, or meal services&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The EITC is given to low-income families with at least one employed person. In 2015, the annual credit was as much as $6,242 per household and was given to households with incomes as high as $53,267. The EITC is a “refundable” tax credit, meaning that if an individual owes no income taxes, money equal to the entire credit is sent to the filer. The EITC has all the characteristics of money income, but it is not counted as such by the Census Bureau.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The government has defined the EITC and other refundable credits as “negative taxes.” Government reports of expenditures are understated because the money paid for the EITC payments is not included. Taxes are also understated by the amount of the EITC because it is subtracted from the reported tax collections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;SNAP funds are paid as money on a debit card, but they are defined as in-kind income and not counted because they can nominally be spent only on food. Rent subsidies, free medical care through Medicaid, and any free social services are also deemed as in-kind income and are excluded from the calculations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;I found the last sentence revealing. Philosophically, the census wants to leave out &quot;in-kind income.&quot; But of course for evaluating people&#39;s standard of living that matters a lot. It&#39;s not wrong, it&#39;s just a definition, useful for some things but not for others. Like, evaluating people&#39;s standard of living.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Interesting as well,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Compared with amounts reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the CPS underestimates retirement income by at least 60 percent in each income quintile. IRS data show 50 percent more households with private pension income, and for those households reporting pension income the IRS shows 50 percent more income than the CPS does.6 No one would report too much income to the IRS, so the higher IRS comparisons are reliably the minimum limit of underreporting.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;There is a lot more in the paper, and I&#39;m perhaps doing the book a disservice, as I recall from reading it last summer that it is very clear and transparent about what the definitions of &quot;income&quot; are and just why they come to such different conclusions from others. But I add this to give a flavor of the issues.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3008607740328449313/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/calomiris-on-gramm-ekelund-and-early-on.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3008607740328449313'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3008607740328449313'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/calomiris-on-gramm-ekelund-and-early-on.html' title='Calomiris on Gramm Ekelund and Early on Income Distribution.  '/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh_ttXkrYe6o1p2URDTr-aXZqOTvkztcBOffaznLbK57KPL_gHIjKxUJnuP8s40h-EQ9BlrJlxQVkA6G8v_NTaHb72SXFsL92c438Kybu4YWDswcYNZwvP-auyBS2Xkb33T749Og-D4A9D6ZiJN3_QE7fpXXHT6iySBbsQpRf9LHEPDbxhsjH9Zno/s72-w400-h375-c/Screen%20Shot%202022-12-28%20at%208.16.07%20AM.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3425407812708810980</id><published>2022-12-26T19:40:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:02.485-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Academic Articles"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><title type='text'>FTPL revised Ch. 5 draft</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;The book isn&#39;t out yet, but I can&#39;t help myself... A revised draft of Chapter 5, fiscal theory in sticky price models is &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level-1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;up on my website here&lt;/a&gt;. Giving talks over the last year and writing some subsequent essays, I see clearer ways to present the sticky price models. &amp;nbsp;Bottom line, these three graphs provide a nice capsule summary of what fiscal theory is all about:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3cUuqZ-ho1yZWefK-szbKjvV8nsLptXlDBnZhbjIZ2N6He7fV-4Mhr4oeXS29cLx1oor5o491aCkP0a8wQ6yANSRFJSZijNiVswJ2osv8-oSxQKnp2Aobkajbyyt0b6j0owjSutwBYJ-wTPpAfbVdsWUKuqo1vmLTYz-KQNNScytN2qVxh9Ugd6U/s1167/fiscal_shock_color.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;656&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1167&quot; height=&quot;360&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3cUuqZ-ho1yZWefK-szbKjvV8nsLptXlDBnZhbjIZ2N6He7fV-4Mhr4oeXS29cLx1oor5o491aCkP0a8wQ6yANSRFJSZijNiVswJ2osv8-oSxQKnp2Aobkajbyyt0b6j0owjSutwBYJ-wTPpAfbVdsWUKuqo1vmLTYz-KQNNScytN2qVxh9Ugd6U/w640-h360/fiscal_shock_color.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Response of inflation, output and price level to a 1% deficit shock, with no change in interest rates. Bondholders lose from a long period of inflation above the nominal interest rate. Inflation goes away eventually on its own.&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-8I7Y_AVs0Iv0Kv3skbyhizxiGNQPIcFn15S6jgcYL7a2A7alePBw3airBXwXeP_EeadD-tJFnOvGVWVWho8rhqutyBm69Kc8Vce6PZtldThY8oYndYe_1Dg06WRzqkE21g6CQtOJ3qkR8WqQ_2Pb6froxN239l14FXlw6YZLQuubNRIZfX27AXw/s1167/money_shock_color.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;656&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1167&quot; height=&quot;360&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-8I7Y_AVs0Iv0Kv3skbyhizxiGNQPIcFn15S6jgcYL7a2A7alePBw3airBXwXeP_EeadD-tJFnOvGVWVWho8rhqutyBm69Kc8Vce6PZtldThY8oYndYe_1Dg06WRzqkE21g6CQtOJ3qkR8WqQ_2Pb6froxN239l14FXlw6YZLQuubNRIZfX27AXw/w640-h360/money_shock_color.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Response of inflation, output and price level to a permanent interest rate rise, with no change in fiscal policy, and sticky prices. The main line uses long-term debt. The omega=1 line uses roughly one year debt. The omega = infinity line uses instantaneous debt. Higher interest rates can temporarily lower inflation with long term debt. With short-term debt, despite sticky prices, inflation follows the interest rate exactly. Sticky prices do not imply sticky inflation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHdQ0oACxVtoCSl3jqBjVUjCk7mq0JMWC0IQKqhKnEcieK_SwINFoT3hrhiyMic4uIo2p9W4wYGb8-oYdQHEE36F1U2c3HHKdAkoUEQR6CKLI0OdL6-S47vjQq2_dB9iTCy9w58XCT114g_RXeExsM_E2-ouY2k5YH8xyL4YUMZZfxiBNs51bEjeY/s1167/fiscal_shock_m_response_color.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;656&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1167&quot; height=&quot;360&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHdQ0oACxVtoCSl3jqBjVUjCk7mq0JMWC0IQKqhKnEcieK_SwINFoT3hrhiyMic4uIo2p9W4wYGb8-oYdQHEE36F1U2c3HHKdAkoUEQR6CKLI0OdL6-S47vjQq2_dB9iTCy9w58XCT114g_RXeExsM_E2-ouY2k5YH8xyL4YUMZZfxiBNs51bEjeY/w640-h360/fiscal_shock_m_response_color.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;Responser to a 1% fiscal shock, with a monetary policy response with Taylor coefficient one, and long term debt. By shifting inflation forward, the central bank eliminates almost all output volatility. The fiscal shock falls on long-term bondholders, who suffer a price drop at time 0.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Details and interpretation in the new draft.&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;I&#39;ll keep updating as we go along. Comments and typos welcome.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And... there are still 4 days to go of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691242248/the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;30% discount at Princeton University Press&lt;/a&gt;. Use code P321.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Happy new year to all. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3425407812708810980/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/ftpl-revised-ch-5-draft.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3425407812708810980'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3425407812708810980'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/ftpl-revised-ch-5-draft.html' title='FTPL revised Ch. 5 draft'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3cUuqZ-ho1yZWefK-szbKjvV8nsLptXlDBnZhbjIZ2N6He7fV-4Mhr4oeXS29cLx1oor5o491aCkP0a8wQ6yANSRFJSZijNiVswJ2osv8-oSxQKnp2Aobkajbyyt0b6j0owjSutwBYJ-wTPpAfbVdsWUKuqo1vmLTYz-KQNNScytN2qVxh9Ugd6U/s72-w640-h360-c/fiscal_shock_color.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-6077554507020941595</id><published>2022-12-23T12:07:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:02.823-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="academic freedom"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Cancel culture"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><title type='text'>Stanford hates fun</title><content type='html'>&lt;table align=&quot;center&quot; cellpadding=&quot;0&quot; cellspacing=&quot;0&quot; class=&quot;tr-caption-container&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;&quot;&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://stanforddaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IMG_0509.jpg?w=800&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;600&quot; data-original-width=&quot;800&quot; height=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;https://stanforddaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IMG_0509.jpg?w=800&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td class=&quot;tr-caption&quot; style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Source: Stanford Daily&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/stanford-tree-mascot-suspended-11671720777?page=1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Stanford hates fun &lt;/a&gt;is the title of the second Stanford article in the Wall Street Journal this week. (On the first, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stanford-guide-to-acceptable-words-elimination-of-harmful-language-initiative-11671489552?page=1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Stanford&#39;s guide to acceptable words&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;enough said already.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This has been bubbling up for a while. Last June, Ginevra Davis wrote a powerful article in Palladium, &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.palladiummag.com/2022/06/13/stanfords-war-on-social-life/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Stanford&#39;s war on social life.&lt;/a&gt;&quot; She recounted how the slightly transgressive Stanford atmosphere in the 90s, which seeded the slightly transgressive get it done attitude of tech in the early 2000s, is being smothered by the Administration. For example, back in the early 90s,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...The brothers were winding down from Kappa Alpha’s annual Cabo-themed party on the house lawn....&amp;nbsp;a day-to-night extravaganza that would start sometime in the morning and continue long after midnight. The girls wore bikini tops and plastic flower leis, and the boys wore their best Hawaiian shirts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Uh-oh, I can already smell trouble if you tried that today. But the point, &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;That year, the brothers had filled the entire main level of Kappa Alpha’s house with a layer of sand six inches deep. The night was almost over; the guests were leaving and the local surf rock band had been paid their customary hundred dollars in beer. The only question was what to do with all the sand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;No one remembers who had the idea to build the island. A group of five or six brothers managed the project. One rented a bulldozer...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Later that year, the brothers installed a zipline from the roof of their house to the center of the island. They also built a barge, which they would paddle around the lake on weekends and between classes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;More generally&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Through the late 1990s, Stanford ... featured a wacky campus culture that combined collegiate prep with West Coast laissez-faire. Stanford was home to a rich patchwork of wild and experimental campus life. Communal living houses (“co-ops”) encouraged casual nudity, while fraternities threw a raucous annual “Greek Week” and lit their houses on fire. Until 2013, Stanford hosted a fully student-run anarchist house, where residents covered the walls with eccentric murals.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Kappa Alpha boys have been kicked out of their old house. Lake Lagunita was closed to student activities in 2001,...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...In less than a decade, Stanford’s administration eviscerated a hundred years of undergraduate culture and social groups. They ended decades-old traditions. They drove student groups out of their houses. They scraped names off buildings. They went after long-established hubs of student life, like fraternities and cultural theme houses...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;A powerful observation: This spirit of self-organization, slightly transgressive but organized fun taught students how to organize things like the 2000s tech revolution. &amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stanford’s support for the unconventional pioneered a new breed of elite student: the charismatic builder who excelled at “breaking things” in nearby Silicon Valley.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;... unlike most elite schools, ...Stanford ... was also fun. Stanford had created a global talent hub combined with explicit permission for rule-breaking. As a result, students learned a valuable lesson: they had agency; they could create their own norms and culture instead of relying on higher authorities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Young kids need to be out in the playground negotiating the rules themselves, without lots of parents and coaches around. College students need self-organized parties and pranks to learn to be tech entrepreneurs. I had always disparaged &quot;party schools&quot; as places with too much drinking and not enough studying, and most parties seem to me like a pointless drunken bacchanalia. But the importance of self-organized activity is something I had missed.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The article explains nicely the advantages of fraternities and sororities to young people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the middle of my freshman year, I started noticing that students, particularly older ones not in a housed Greek organization, seemed quite aimless and very lonely....&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;When students live together, united by a shared identity, they tend to look after each other. The boys in one fraternity sleep together in a pile on the floor. Girls in housed sororities leave their doors open and treat their clothes like a communal wardrobe.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The process&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2013, the administration took over the student-run anarchist house and painted over the old murals. The next year, Stanford drained the remnants of Lake Lagunita, where students used to gather to host bonfires, and ended the annual anything-but-clothes party known as Exotic Erotic. And the year after that, in 2015, the administration put the notoriously anti-establishment Leland Stanford Junior University Marching Band on “super-probation,” the culmination of years of increasing restrictions on their antics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;over the ensuing years, the Band mostly lost its raucous, fraternity-esque culture, and stopped doing anything particularly controversial. Once, the Band mocked Stanford’s rivals with crass marching formations; today, the Band designs all their pranks based on pre-approved themes from the university and clears the final plans with a panel of administrators.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Then they came for the fraternities&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;One night, I was biking home late from the Caltrain. I made it halfway back to my dorm before I realized that something was missing. Music. It was a Friday night, but the campus was completely silent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Unlike Harvard, which abruptly tried to ban “single-gender social organizations” and was immediately sued by alumni, Stanford picked off the Greek life organizations one by one to avoid student or alumni pushback. The playbook was always the same. Some incident would spark an investigation, and the administration would insist that the offending organization had lost its right to remain on campus. The group would be promptly removed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...When Stanford could not remove a student organization for bad behavior, they found other justifications. One such case was the end of Outdoor House, an innocuous haven on the far side of campus for students who liked hiking. The official explanation from Stanford for eliminating the house was that the Outdoor theme “fell short of diversity, equity and inclusion expectations.” ...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Next year, Outdoor House will be reinstated, but only because house members promised to refocus their theme on “racial and environmental justice in the outdoors.” Upholding diversity, equity, and inclusion is the first of four “ResX principles” that now govern undergraduate housing. Stanford reserves the right to unhouse any organization that does not, in their opinion, uphold these principles.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Covid provided the excuse to really clamp down. The new system sounds awfully bleak. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The first thing Stanford announced was the introduction of a new housing system, designed to promote “fairness” and “community” on campus. Under the system, new freshmen would be assigned to one of eight artificially-created housing groups called “neighborhoods,” each containing a representative sample of campus housing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The reality of the neighborhood system is that it strips students of their ability to form distinct personalities or formal friend groups. I am in Neighborhood S. Some of my friends are in Neighborhood N. It doesn’t actually matter. The neighborhoods are not based on geography—many houses in the same “neighborhood” are on opposite sides of campus—and have no personalities outside of their letter name. They are distinctions without meaning.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;... students in “bad housing”—the labyrinth of themeless, meaningless dorms awaiting most Stanford students—rarely bother to learn their neighbor’s names. Hallways are quiet and doors are locked. Without a strong existing support network, these students can easily bounce from anonymous dorms, to lecture halls, to cavernous dining halls without anyone acknowledging their presence for days.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;..Stanford students live in brand new buildings with white walls. We have a $20 million dollar meditation center that nobody uses. But students didn’t ask for any of that. We just wanted a dirty house with friends.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;When I tell current Stanford students the story about JP and his island, I swear their eyes pop out of their heads. Everything was so different then. It sounds like a story from another school—the house, the lake, and the groundskeeper who let the boys pass. But mostly, what feels foreign is the spirit expressed by the six brothers, the wild unfettered joy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;A bottom line&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stanford’s new social order offers a peek into the bureaucrat’s vision for America. It is a world without risk, genuine difference, or the kind of group connection that makes teenage boys want to rent bulldozers and build islands..&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://stanforddaily.com/2022/11/29/opinion-why-is-stanford-so-unfun/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Izzy Meyerson followed up in the Stanford Daily&lt;/a&gt;. Izzy transferred from the &lt;i&gt;University of Chicago&lt;/i&gt;, &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...the place where “fun goes to die.” Yet, in my first quarter at Stanford, I found myself missing the unique community hubs that so easily brought people together at the University of Chicago: the student run coffee shops, each with its own personality (the one for indie kids, the one for econ bros and their adjacents, the one for more edgy, subversive “alt” students, etc…), the student center, even the silent Harper Library, which was a place for me to hang with friends and meet new people...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;When I was at UChicago, there was an active effort underway to make the school more appealing to the general high achieving high school student... This involved embracing looser restrictions ... and a new community-driven student life strategy. It seems to me that Stanford is heading in the opposite direction, embracing the “where fun goes to die” mantra that UChicago is trying so hard to shed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...when I arrived at Stanford in the fall of 2021, I saw a dull and tired campus, one that had forgotten it was supposed to be the fun California school... I spent much of my time working in my room, and I am someone that hates working in my room. But there were few social places to work on campus where you could meet new people. I felt awkward and unwelcome when I walked into the first floor of Green to absolute silence and stares from people as the squeak of my shoes seemed to fill the emptiness of the space.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Izzy has a deep point. The lack of campus social life is about a lot more than big alcohol-fueled parties. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...Stanford has been eroding away traditions (such as Full Moon on the Quad) and historical community hubs through the Neighborhood System. This was easy for them to do — there was an entire year of remote schooling in which traditions were not passed down to the incoming class, and so their demise was imminent. Though such traditions may seem frivolous, it is exactly these small, uniquely Stanford events that bring people together...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;..what makes college so valuable is the relationships you make with others across wide and varying backgrounds.... But we must have access to abundant social interactions and involvements for such meaningful growth to take place. So, I implore you, Stanford, to embrace “fun” again, revitalize our unique campus culture, not simply for the enjoyment of the student body but to allow your students to build themselves into complex and diverse beings.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The WSJ notes&amp;nbsp;&lt;i&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stanford began mandating students file an application two weeks ahead of a party including a list of attendees, along with sober monitors, students said.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The number of registered parties dwindled to 45 during the first four weeks of school this fall, down from 158 over the same period in 2019, according to the Stanford Daily.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;My jaw dropped. &amp;nbsp;Filing an application for a party two weeks ahead of time? Deciding what party you&#39;re going to go to two weeks ahead of time? You must be kidding. I went to MIT, lived in a dorm, and even there parties were organized about 5 minutes ahead of time! &quot;&lt;i&gt;List of attendees?&lt;/i&gt;&quot; Is this China? The university keeps track of who is invited to what party?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;What&#39;s going on? It&#39;s right there -- &quot;Upholding diversity, equity, and inclusion is the first of four “ResX principles” that now govern undergraduate housing..&quot; &quot; Stanford announced was the introduction of a new housing system, designed to promote “fairness”..&quot; &amp;nbsp;The bureaucrat&#39;s vision of &quot;Diversity, Equity and Inclusion&quot; cannot stand any self-organization by students. Voluntary association might not be sufficiently &quot;diverse&quot; and &quot;inclusive&quot; (except, of course, the &quot;affinity&quot; groups which are deliberately not diverse and inclusive.) The only way to be &quot;equitably&quot; &quot;included,&quot; apparently, is to be equally, intensely, lonely and miserable. So even the most minor social organization, like having a party, must be policed by bureaucrats. And smothered in the process.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;No wonder there is a mental health crisis! Living all alone in a faceless dorm with closed doors would drive any 18 year old nuts. I found my first years in a college dorm intensely difficult, and only the fellowship of the irreverent Burton Third Bombers got me through. (Thank you all!) I can&#39;t imagine living all alone in a motel-like silent dorm a thousand miles from home. I would have cracked too.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stanford&#39;s response, per WSJ, could be written by &lt;i&gt;The Onion,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Samuel Santos Jr., associate vice provost of inclusion, community and integrative learning within the Division of Student Affairs, says the school is working to address students’ concerns about Stanford’s social atmosphere.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The party-planning process will be streamlined and more administrators will be hired to help facilitate student social life.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;“We want events to be fun, inclusive and safe and those things can happen,” Mr. Santos says. “They just require collaboration and honesty.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Maybe the problem is reflected in the fact that Stanford has an &quot;associate vice provost of inclusion, community and integrative learning&quot; in the first place! Streamlining the paperwork to ask mommy for permission to have a party is not the answer. And &amp;nbsp;&quot;&lt;i&gt;more administrators will be hired !&lt;/i&gt;&quot; Jaw drops again. Isn&#39;t it breathtakingly obvious that the problem is too many administrators in the first place?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This may seem minor. Who cares if undergraduates have fun? Well, maybe some people care if undergraduates mature into confident people, capable of organizing a party without guidance and permission from the Ministry of Parties, before they head out into the world to start the next generation of tech companies. Or, more likely take jobs as deputy directors of &quot;inclusion, community and integrative learning&quot; at the newly sclerotic old tech companies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I hope, however, that Stanford&#39;s alumni will wake up and take notice. They are a key constituency for an institution that lives off their generous donations. The loss of academic freedom and free speech doesn&#39;t seem to bother them much, even when taken to the ridiculous such as the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stanford-guide-to-acceptable-words-elimination-of-harmful-language-initiative-11671489552?page=1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;guide to acceptable words&lt;/a&gt;. The imposition of far-left politics under the &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://ideal.stanford.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;IDEAL&lt;/a&gt;&quot; banner hasn&#39;t woken them up.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But they give money in memory of the great time they had as undergraduates -- and the experiences that made their lifelong friends, molded their personalities, and were core foundations of their current success and personal happiness. Perhaps news that these core fond memories have gone up in smoke will catalyze them.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Or, perhaps, universities are now more searching for a few billion dollar donors rather than regular checks from loyal alumni. $1.6 billion = 16,000,000 $100 checks. Inescapable math. But such donors want more public and political causes.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Update:&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Thanks for many comments and emails.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I feel for the administrators, really. What do you do if you are provost and a big frat party has gotten out of hand? Well, the big university disciplinary machinery steps in and &amp;nbsp;write rules of engagement for the drunken bacchanalia. In the face of the title 9 and DEI bureaucrats, and their kangaroo-court procedures, this ends inevitably exactly where we are.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I think the answer lies crucially here: Nothing. The price of self-organization is responsibility. Call the cops. If the frat gets sued, the frat gets sued. Rewrite the ground lease so that the frat is an independent organization. By having rules and disciplinary procedures, the university also protects the frat from its full responsibility. Maybe not, but somehow, the university has to separate itself from detailed frat management. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/6077554507020941595/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/stanford-hates-fun.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6077554507020941595'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6077554507020941595'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/stanford-hates-fun.html' title='Stanford hates fun'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-8862595474823571602</id><published>2022-12-20T07:11:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:03.160-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Academic Articles"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Videos"/><title type='text'>Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates video</title><content type='html'>&lt;iframe allow=&quot;accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;&quot; frameborder=&quot;0&quot; height=&quot;330&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/saW2XVx0kQU&quot; title=&quot;Policy Seminar with John Cochrane: Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates&quot; width=&quot;620&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;p&gt;I revised &quot;Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates&quot; and presented at the Hoover Economic Policy workshop. Thanks to the great Hoover team, here it is by video. If the embed doesn&#39;t work, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.hoover.org/events/policy-seminar-john-cochrane-1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here&#39;s the Hoover webpage&lt;/a&gt; with the video. The updated paper and slides &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/inflation-neutrality&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;are here&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/8862595474823571602/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/expectations-and-neutrality-of-interest.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8862595474823571602'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8862595474823571602'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/expectations-and-neutrality-of-interest.html' title='Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates video'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://img.youtube.com/vi/saW2XVx0kQU/default.jpg" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-2502884834976425800</id><published>2022-12-15T08:22:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:03.508-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Cancel culture"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Health economics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="pandemic"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>CDC, more on politicized agencies </title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;Continuing a series on rot and politicization in administrative agencies... &quot;Sure&quot; comments on &lt;a href=&quot;https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/12/why-the-cdc-is-hard-to-fix.html#comments&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Marginal Revolution&lt;/a&gt; are fascinating. My excerpts:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The reasons you cannot change the CDC have little to do with remote work. &amp;nbsp;The major issues are:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;2. It is overrun with academics....Many look at the CDC as complementary to an academic career and even the lifers have CVs at least compatible with going academic. This means a lot of the work product and setup is geared more toward publication, conference presentation, and deliberative work rather than rapid response.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;A similar culture pervades the Fed. Fed researchers primarily regard the Fed as a home to write publications that will advance an academic career, with &quot;policy work&quot; culturally degraded. Both Board and regional Feds have developed into quite good centers for academic economic research, which seems overall a good thing, but one wonders just why the central bank should funnel what is in the end taxpayer money to this endeavor. However it also means that when inflation surges to 8%, nobody saw it coming, and we wonder why. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;3. The place has gone monocultural. ...Since 2015, their political donations have been 99.94% to Democrats. This means that they get bogged down in the latest vanguard concerns of the Democratic base and that they are increasingly ignorant about and isolated from the bulk of the populace. Things that make some sense in dense urban corridors where few people get dirty at work make little sense in sparsely populated areas with significant morbidity burdens from work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;As a monetary economist, I&#39;m fixated on the Fed. According to the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=14021&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Independent Institute&lt;/a&gt;, &amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;...the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Fed economists is 10.4 to 1. ... at the Board of Governors...48.5:1...in leadership positions 22.25:1.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Of course these ratios are not that different from economists overall, as evidenced by studies of AEA members and leadership. Still, academia is different from an agency that does, like it or not, operate in a political world. Back to the CDC&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;4. The hiring is completely incestuous. A huge number of low-level folks have parents who worked there or at related institutions (e.g. NIH) and even larger proportions involve folks who share educational pedigrees (universities, med schools, advisers). And even if a president wants to change this, there are civil service protections,...and attribution of any cataclysm to this sort of personnel purge regardless of the real merits.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;5. The activists are running rampant. Culturally competent pandemic management, as taught by the CDC, suggests that in a pandemic public health officials should not criticize cultural or ethnic leaders unnecessarily. They also suggest that you cannot shame or browbeat people into compliance with public health efforts, and that attempts to do so often backfire by having identity groups (religious, ethnic, national, etc.) respond to your nociceptive [relating to the perception or sensation of pain. I had to look it up] stimuli by rejecting previously accepted public health interventions. The worst messaging coming out of the CDC, particularly anonymously, violates all the guidelines I have seen the CDC issue when working overseas with MSF.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The deplorables don&#39;t like being treated like deplorables, and distrust your masks and vaccines when you do. &amp;nbsp; I couldn&#39;t quite figure out whether &quot;Sure&quot; means &quot;cultural or ethnic leaders&quot; on the left or right, but perhaps it is both,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;6. Doing your job well is boring. Most of the time you should be just making certain that resources (e.g. antibiotic stockpiles) are in place and that the same things that worked last time are ready to be implemented again (e.g. surge vaccination). And your ability to innovate and come up with something useful is pretty unlikely as there have been 50,000 people before you who give it their best stab. This leads to people &quot;innovating&quot; for the sake of &quot;innovating&quot;. This leads to people amplifying secondary concerns like &quot;representation&quot;, &quot;equity&quot;, &quot;sustainability&quot;, or the like. And a couple iterations of promoting the &quot;innovators&quot; over the maintainers will rapidly lead to atrophy of core capabilities. Zika or H1N1 represent less than 2% of the total work burden of the CDC, most of being agile is about maintaining capabilities when they are never used. And that is boring and at least currently not great for career advancement.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;I wonder how the Defense Department keeps people motivated whose job is to make sure that weapons work over decades of peace, and people and procedures stay trained and ready. It has been widely reported how the CDC morphed in to a social change agency, with tiny fractions of its budget devoted to actual &quot;disease control.&quot; The incentives are clear.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;At the Fed too, I sense that just handling money, inflation and sleep-inducing bank regulations isn&#39;t enough. &amp;nbsp;The new generation wants to save the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;On the initial speculation that started the whole business, that remote work is bad, a fresh insight:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Remote work, in my best guess, would likely be a boon for the long-term flexibility of the CDC. Getting folks out of Atlanta and DC, having more capability for folks to work from the breadth of the country, and potentially even letting late career clinical folks have more access to the institution without having to disrupt their lives with a cross-country move are all to the good.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...until a bunch of people get fired, the CDC is unlikely to effectively change. On my more pessimistic days, I figure the real solution would involve burning the place to the ground.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In response to later comments, and interesting to the overall theme of politicization of regulatory agencies,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;..every white house dating back to GHWB has promptly incinerated the structures that their predecessors had developed to manage these threats. Bush II eliminated the Biodefense Czar, Obama closed up Bush&#39;s org chart, and then Trump folded Obama&#39;s structure into the NSC. None of these had any significant critics at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave demanding them, rather each of them saw the other side&#39;s politics as emphasizing the wrong things.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...The CDC basically screwed up early Covid testing six ways to Sunday. They contiminated the test. Their own validation efforts showed something like a 33% failure rate and they let the tests go AND did not warn recipients. Failures to follow protocol, document results, and even basic lab hygiene were not followed (and I would note that CAP would not tolerate half of this in clinical lab). And yet none of the principles were fired. ...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...mostly what I have seen is the civil servants pushing all the blame onto Trump and his voters for being &quot;anti-science&quot;. I see continued inflammatory behaviors that I fear are starting to show up in overall reduced vaccination rates. And certainly a lot of the equity verbiage I see coming out suggests a quick reversion to the political positioning that best aids one&#39;s career.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/2502884834976425800/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/cdc-more-on-politicized-agencies.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/2502884834976425800'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/2502884834976425800'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/cdc-more-on-politicized-agencies.html' title='CDC, more on politicized agencies '/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-5879766990496305124</id><published>2022-12-13T09:02:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:03.845-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>Second great experiment second update</title><content type='html'>&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2Cy978MNIpXHPdJJbTiOL6lEU3XVALgemd-eoFC2FCpZ_KSQvAojfi0xFt25EbIEWRb6WHGIBAOTrVPe4CTmbCwVzQfdhsuGHHasQBFzj1VMz2Z1L4SldoBPBOOcNZkaXj_pjxI60xVkqQirG_ZZHOoCdkT_cA6SFUOguKSfZxjndrEflvB6Npmc/s1168/recent_i_pi_dec_22.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2Cy978MNIpXHPdJJbTiOL6lEU3XVALgemd-eoFC2FCpZ_KSQvAojfi0xFt25EbIEWRb6WHGIBAOTrVPe4CTmbCwVzQfdhsuGHHasQBFzj1VMz2Z1L4SldoBPBOOcNZkaXj_pjxI60xVkqQirG_ZZHOoCdkT_cA6SFUOguKSfZxjndrEflvB6Npmc/w640-h246/recent_i_pi_dec_22.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;The November CPI is in, and inflation continues to moderate despite interest rates that, while rising, are still below current inflation. The great experiment seems to be working out, at least for now. (&lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-second-great-experiment-update.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Previous post&lt;/a&gt;, with links to earlier writing.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;As before, the first great question, which economists really don&#39;t have a consensus answer to, is whether inflation is stable or unstable; whether it takes a period of interest rates above current inflation to bring inflation down, or whether inflation will eventually follow the interest rate.&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Xf-0Q9YAZdKDLU4w4Khh0260Inb807kjTQ8GOGP9cLbTI4xPvG5CqQ-2-livCq2TENglS313BsnySQQrJyVQqIkktdem6BxnWdi35bSLOHj71Ed7zYX3BmTCrdB1-8Ug2I6J114cuirD_dgVG0GaSPfXg54WuXVTwqRl45cfCLuWA3pmZ2M__ls/s1024/stable_unstable.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;768&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1024&quot; height=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Xf-0Q9YAZdKDLU4w4Khh0260Inb807kjTQ8GOGP9cLbTI4xPvG5CqQ-2-livCq2TENglS313BsnySQQrJyVQqIkktdem6BxnWdi35bSLOHj71Ed7zYX3BmTCrdB1-8Ug2I6J114cuirD_dgVG0GaSPfXg54WuXVTwqRl45cfCLuWA3pmZ2M__ls/w640-h480/stable_unstable.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;(Yes, I&#39;ve used this picture several times before, but it&#39;s too much fun not to use again.) In the conventional &quot;adaptive expectations&quot; view, inflation is unstable, like the ball on the seal&#39;s nose, unless the Fed moves interest rates quickly, and inflation will spiral away unless interest rates rise above the current rate of inflation. In the more radical &quot;rational expectations&quot; view, inflation is stable and will eventually go away on its own even if the Fed does nothing. (So long as fiscal policy doesn&#39;t add fuel to the fire. Also, it allows for more dynamics; inflation can go up before coming back, and the long run can take a long time.)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The experiment, like the zero bound era, seems to be coming in on the side of stable.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;What about the Fed&#39;s rise in rates? In the models I play with, that will help in the short run, but at the cost of stubborn more entrenched inflation eventually. To recap, here is the response of a simple fiscal theory model to a fiscal shock -- deficits that people do not expect to be repaid -- when the Fed does nothing (top), and to a monetary policy shock -- persistently higher interest rates with no change in fiscal policy -- (bottom).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhStMe2uS2dMMnUD6bJmKKTjfcvypD74V5hx0GprvxdgQr3zUoHzBc7GW5Lja8f6UugluRs5pH-_zSRMQyAUgNEpgiuW4zYw0fvOYG1APeq7OGZr_RvlPRGFq3YI7HxKfAd3IZvONeiWwPn7M-TjF1_hugq0m7lDaoWJMTpcAQkmniVFICgT2g9GkE/s1167/JEP_simulation.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;875&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1167&quot; height=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhStMe2uS2dMMnUD6bJmKKTjfcvypD74V5hx0GprvxdgQr3zUoHzBc7GW5Lja8f6UugluRs5pH-_zSRMQyAUgNEpgiuW4zYw0fvOYG1APeq7OGZr_RvlPRGFq3YI7HxKfAd3IZvONeiWwPn7M-TjF1_hugq0m7lDaoWJMTpcAQkmniVFICgT2g9GkE/w640-h480/JEP_simulation.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;In response to the fiscal shock, we get a drawn out period of inflation. The negative real interest rate (interest rate below inflation) slowly eats away at bondholder&#39;s wealth until they have, in essence, paid for the initial deficit. In response to higher interest rates, with no change in fiscal policy, inflation initially declines, but then eventually follows the interest rate. Remember, it&#39;s a &quot;stable&quot; model, meaning it has that &quot;long run neutrality&quot; in it, as a result of rational expectations.&amp;nbsp;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;These are the paths of inflation and interest rates after a one-time shock. As you interpret history, remember that every day is a new shock, and more shocks will come. Also the models are incredibly simplified, and obvious modifications add more realistic dynamics.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Ok, enough review. On the basis of the top graph, I thought inflation might well decline on its own, with interest rates staying below inflation, at least as long as we don&#39;t have another big fiscal blowout.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;But now, the Fed is starting to respond (the novelty of today&#39;s post). How does that change things? Well, add the bottom graph to the top graph, really. As the Fed responds to inflation, that brings down current inflation -- a good thing -- but raises future inflation. With no change in fiscal policy, the Fed can rearrange inflation over time, but it can&#39;t get rid of the inflation that must eat away at the debt. It faces &quot;unpleasant arithmetic&quot; in Sargent and Wallace&#39;s famous view, though this is &quot;unpleasant interest rate arithmetic&quot; rather than &quot;unpleasant monetarist arithmetic.&quot;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Another way to put it is that the Fed is starting to follow a Taylor rule, reacting to inflation by raising interest rates.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;So, what happens? In these incredibly simplistic models, I simulated the response to a fiscal shock when the Fed does respond by raising interest rates, effectively automatically adding the bottom graph to the top graph. Here you go:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOqxPiaK4HOq3BQ1HdhN_DN1KYO6dX_9fl1fHcLYteR4KuEm9neCzHBw2_naS1xEsvo_NCwzTqJF8qmuKvF93hj-vC1rNAW5_pz1AtZdUyOT70eOTSH2zwuCpUAssj7XFz9TBf3nc2DjbdW-oMFWhWduam_6sVdQIhh8fTRuciYRMZ9mZHR018eao/s1167/policy_inflation.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;656&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1167&quot; height=&quot;360&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOqxPiaK4HOq3BQ1HdhN_DN1KYO6dX_9fl1fHcLYteR4KuEm9neCzHBw2_naS1xEsvo_NCwzTqJF8qmuKvF93hj-vC1rNAW5_pz1AtZdUyOT70eOTSH2zwuCpUAssj7XFz9TBf3nc2DjbdW-oMFWhWduam_6sVdQIhh8fTRuciYRMZ9mZHR018eao/w640-h360/policy_inflation.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;The solid inflation and output lines, and the lower solid interest rate line, &amp;nbsp;repeat the top panel of the previous graph -- the effect of a fiscal policy shock if the Fed does nothing. The &quot;with policy rule&quot; lines with markers show what happens after a fiscal shock if the Fed instead follows a Taylor-type rule, interest rate = 0.9 times inflation. As you see in the blue line with markers, the interest rate now rises, in response to inflation, as the Fed is now doing. The result of that interest rate rise, per lower previous graph, is to bring down current inflation, at the cost of making inflation more persistent.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;In the New-Keynesian model underlying all of this, the Fed&#39;s reaction is a good thing, even though it does not eliminate inflation. By lowering inflation, it reduces the effect of inflation on output via the Phillips curve. In this Phillips curve, inflation = expected future inflation + k x output gap, so a random-walk inflation is the best thing for stabilizing output. A Taylor rule with a 1.0 coefficient would do that. In adaptive expectations models, the Taylor rule brings stability. In new-Keynesian rational expectations models, it brings determinacy. In this fiscal theory new-Keynesian model, it reduces output and inflation volatility. The answer is the same, the questions change (rather drastically). That model robustness is a good thing, not an insult.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;So, roughly speaking, here we are. Yes, my simulation supposes that the Fed reacts instantly, where it has taken a while. And reality has had multiple &quot;shocks.&quot; So squint a bit. The lesson I see is that by adding higher interest rates a bit later in the game, the Fed is bringing inflation down (second graph) not just blunting inflation is it would have done had it moved earlier. But without progress on fiscal policy (a negative of the top graph), inflation will only subside to something like 4%, and then stick there rather stubbornly -- the right hand side of the last graph is the cost of blunting inflation now.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The episode is not totally an &quot;experiment,&quot; as this seems to be the same forecast that others arrive at by other means. &quot;Team transitory&quot; thinks we had supply shocks that are fading, so inflation can go away without big interest-rate increases, &amp;nbsp;but slow-moving expectations have risen. That view is not totally consistent, as with adaptive expectations, the period of no interest rate movement should have led to additional pressure on inflation. As they (or their intellectual ancestors) did in the 1980s, they think the Phillips curve pain of reductions will be too large, and are arguing that we should just get used to it and raise the inflation target. The option of a painless disinflation by fixing the long-run fiscal problem isn&#39;t in that worldview. But in any case, we get to roughly the same path going forward.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigv_j1lC1McpdEy_idURGKXtNDfRmJplAFFBheAWLm-mLZ3jwSMlY8NtvVfkRLPDan57DCbsCCLhU47SLQ4Qn9lNBYRNq7wWHvI7uqx7-mg-LVXFWPza8QqvGmPOLTxI_a8UnuKCUp0bVZb1ZroJKTjmYzWqI2sGN_sZuryFakgxGzTR2u0miw9Ys/s1168/fredgraph-78.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigv_j1lC1McpdEy_idURGKXtNDfRmJplAFFBheAWLm-mLZ3jwSMlY8NtvVfkRLPDan57DCbsCCLhU47SLQ4Qn9lNBYRNq7wWHvI7uqx7-mg-LVXFWPza8QqvGmPOLTxI_a8UnuKCUp0bVZb1ZroJKTjmYzWqI2sGN_sZuryFakgxGzTR2u0miw9Ys/w640-h246/fredgraph-78.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;1975 may be a good historical precedent to think about. The Fed acted more quickly that it is doing now, but still never raised interest rates substantially above inflation as it did in 1980-1982. Nonetheless, inflation did fade. But it never got all the way back to its previous value, and then took off again with additional shocks in the late 1970s.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/5879766990496305124/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/second-great-experiment-second-update.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5879766990496305124'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5879766990496305124'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/second-great-experiment-second-update.html' title='Second great experiment second update'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2Cy978MNIpXHPdJJbTiOL6lEU3XVALgemd-eoFC2FCpZ_KSQvAojfi0xFt25EbIEWRb6WHGIBAOTrVPe4CTmbCwVzQfdhsuGHHasQBFzj1VMz2Z1L4SldoBPBOOcNZkaXj_pjxI60xVkqQirG_ZZHOoCdkT_cA6SFUOguKSfZxjndrEflvB6Npmc/s72-w640-h246-c/recent_i_pi_dec_22.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3713444638747095721</id><published>2022-12-13T07:12:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:04.197-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Environment"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Climate disclosures and politics by bureaucracy </title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;One of the most important and under-reported struggles under the radar is the politicization of administrative agencies, and the effort to cement via those agencies policies that Congress will never vote for, but that once enshrined will be very difficult for any administration or Congress to overturn.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;One central part of that is the &quot;whole of government&quot; climate policy, centered around stopping fossil fuel development and subsidizing electric cars, photovoltaics and windmills. Never mind that large scale storage remains a pipe dream, never mind the lessons of Europe.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;SEC&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As reported by &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-rule-aims-to-make-every-company-a-climate-company-11670615181&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;James Freeman in the WSJ&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;the courageous Hester Peirce is again clarfying just what the SEC&#39;s new climate rules really mean. Background: SEC wants to mandate &quot;disclosure&quot; of carbon emissions and &quot;climate risks,&quot; not just by each individual business but also each businesses&#39; suppliers and customers. That is transparently impossible, a lawyer and consultant employment act, and a tremendous opening to harass companies for mis-statements. But Hester goes on insightfully:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;... the climate proposal mandates disclosure about board oversight of climate-related risks, including identifying board members or board committees responsible for overseeing climate-related risks; detailing board member climate expertise; describing the processes and frequency of discussions about climate-related risks; explaining how the board is informed about, and how often it thinks about, climate-related risks and whether it considers climate-related risks as part of its business strategy, risk management, and financial oversight; and describing whether and how the board sets climate-related targets or goals and how it oversees progress in achieving them.The proposal also includes a corresponding set of disclosures related to management: who is responsible for managing climate-related risks, what their climate expertise is, how they get informed about those risks, and how often the managers responsible for climate-related risks report to the board...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Shudder.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;All Federal Contracts&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Related, all US federal contracting is now going to be put under this regime. &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pentagon-goes-to-climate-war-biden-administration-green-rule-weapons-contractors-11669835241&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;As also reported in WSJ&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;A little-noticed rule-making proposed by the Department of Defense, NASA and the General Services Administration last month would require federal contractors to disclose and reduce their CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Smaller contractors would have to publicly report their so-called Scope 1 and 2 emissions—i.e., those they generate at their facilities and from the electricity and heating they use. Firms with larger contracts would also have to tabulate their upstream and downstream Scope 3 emissions, including those from customers, suppliers and products used in the field.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Just imagine trying to calculate not only your household&#39;s carbon emissions but also those of everyone you buy anything from and everyone you work for or sell something to. And &quot;climate risks?&quot; Under penalty of law if someone doesn&#39;t like your calculations?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Large contractors would also have to publish an annual climate disclosure and develop “science-based targets” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement. That means contractors will have to aim to zero out emissions and possibly require their contractors to do so.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Actually it means a bonanza for companies that sell fictitious carbon indulgences, which will be the cryptocurrency of the next decade, so you can say &quot;net&quot; zero while producing fighter jets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The article emphasizes the military implications which are obvious. But&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The proposed rule would also apply to non-defense contractors, including pharmaceutical, shipping and tech companies, though it curiously exempts universities, nonprofit research institutions and state and local governments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Perhaps the latter are woke enough.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The People’s Liberation Army must be dumbfounded by its good luck.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, yes. And even more. &amp;nbsp;As the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-strategy-is-undone-by-fantasy-national-security-china-climate-change-threat-beijing-white-house-ccp-11666549038&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;WSJ also points out&lt;/a&gt;, the new&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;National Security Strategy&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;puts climate change ahead of &quot;competition with&quot; China and Russia as an &quot;existential threat&quot; that requires cooperation with and by any logical inference some degree of capitulation to ... China and Russia.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These are formal rules, still in the comment stage. This is clever and important. Executive orders can be overturned by new executive orders. Properly passed rules are much harder to overturn, especially when contractors and companies have figured out how to work the system, please the regulators, hire the right consultants, and use the whole system as a dandy barrier to entry.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&quot;Disclosure&quot; would seem to require only &quot;we have no bloody idea, and neither do you.&quot; The idea behind SEC rules is that companies should not keep anything hidden. Somehow this morphed into legal requirements that companies spend millions of dollars coming up with new numbers, and justifying them in court if need be. How that evolution of the word &quot;disclosure&quot; happened is a question I would love to understand from legal experts.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3713444638747095721/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/climate-disclosures-and-politics-by.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3713444638747095721'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3713444638747095721'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/climate-disclosures-and-politics-by.html' title='Climate disclosures and politics by bureaucracy '/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-6086781131227681519</id><published>2022-12-10T10:31:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:04.542-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="academic freedom"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Twitter and universities </title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;From Rob Wiesenthal at the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-slashes-bureaucracy-twitter-rebuilding-corporate-middle-management-work-culture-company-big-tech-11670515327&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wall Street Journal&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;re Elon Musk and Twitter:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Minutes after closing his purchase of the company, he started a process that reduced the workforce from 7,500 to 2,500 in 10 days....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mr. Musk is trying to cure a degenerative corporate disease: systemic paralysis. Symptoms include cobwebs of corporate hierarchies with unclear reporting lines and unwieldy teams, along with work groups and positions that have opaque or nonsensical mandates. Paralyzed companies are often led by a career CEO who builds or maintains a level of bureaucracy that leads to declines in innovation, competitive stature and shareholder value....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mr. Musk set his new tone immediately. He eliminated a 12-member team responsible for artificial-intelligence ethics in machine learning, the entire corporate communications department, and a headquarters commissary that cost $13 million a year (despite prior management’s pandemic decree that Twitter employees would be “remote forever”)....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;he knows he doesn’t need five layers between him and the employees who actually do the work. His recent email to the engineering team stating, “Anyone who actually writes software, please report to the 10th floor at 2 pm today,” makes it clear he doesn’t want a membrane of corporate yes-men between him and the people who actually build things....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;As sole owner, he can also quickly terminate the members of Twitter’s black hole of middle management, that cold and lonely place where great ideas go to die at big companies....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The days of nap pods, emotional-support dogs, corporate pronoun guides, personal wellness days and email blackouts after 5 p.m. are quickly vanishing....&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;Those employees who relish getting things done will thrive.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;My thoughts go naturally to my home institution, Stanford. We are self-evidently bloated with administrative staff. Stanford proudly &lt;a href=&quot;https://facts.stanford.edu/administration/staff/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;lists&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;15,750 staff, &lt;a href=&quot;https://facts.stanford.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;for&lt;/a&gt; 7,645 undergrads, 9,292 graduate, and 2,288 faculty.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;This l&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2022/11/29/anderson-bureaucratic-bloat-harvard/?fbclid=IwAR1SjI_abO7gGZpsv-bkTWf9KGmNFPrmNfXzIRJvyXaywi6Yh1UFBaeCnqQ&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;ovely Harvard Crimson editorial&lt;/a&gt; by Brooks Anderson (HT &lt;a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/ChrisPhelanEcon/status/1601660020110024705&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Chris Phelan&lt;/a&gt;) paints a devastating picture there:&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Across the University, for every academic employee there are approximately 1.45 administrators. When only considering faculty, this ratio jumps to 3.09. Harvard employs 7,024 total full-time administrators, only slightly fewer than the undergraduate population. What do they all do?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;For example, last December, all Faculty of Arts and Sciences affiliates received an email from Dean Claudine Gay announcing the final report of the FAS Task Force on Visual Culture and Signage, a task force itself created by recommendation of the Presidential Task Force on Inclusion and Belonging. This task force was composed of 24 members: six students, nine faculty members, and nine administrators. The task force produced a 26-page report divided into seven sections, based upon a survey, focus groups, and 15 separate meetings with over 500 people total. The report dedicated seven pages to its recommendations, which ranged from “Clarify institutional authority over FAS visual culture and signage” to “Create a dynamic program of public art in the FAS.” In response to these recommendations, Dean Gay announced the creation of a new administrative post, the “FAS campus curator,” and a new committee, the “FAS Standing Committee on Visual Culture and Signage.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;The &quot;12-member team responsible for artificial-intelligence ethics in machine learning&quot;... I just learned that Stanford, like other institutions, now has an &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://casbs.stanford.edu/ethics-society-review-stanford-university&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Ethics and Society Review&lt;/a&gt;&quot; bureaucracy gearing up.&amp;nbsp;(&quot;Voluntary&quot; for now.)&amp;nbsp;We already have the large and cumbersome Institutional Review focusing on human subjects, but it had a pesky limitation&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The IRB should not consider possible long-range effects of applying knowledge gained in the research [...] as among those research risks that fall within the purview of its responsibility.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, let&#39;s not let that get in the way,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;... it is inappropriate to ignore the risks that research poses for our collective future: the risks of artificial intelligence to the future of work, the risks of sustainability interventions to the societies that they are purported to support, the risks of the internet to professional media and accurate information.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&quot;to ignore.&quot; Don&#39;t you love passive voice? &quot;For the university bureaucracy to ignore&quot; is less self evident. If you stop and think just a moment, absolutely no research can pass this test. Risks to future work? Sorry about that steam engine Mr. Watt. Sorry about that word processor Mr. Wang. &quot;risks of the internet to ... accurate information.&quot; Pretty much all social media or the internet itself must be banned or censored by this standard. Sorry about that printing press Mr. Gutenberg, our Ethics Review Board has determined it might spread inaccurate information. &amp;nbsp;Pretty much all AI research must be banned&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/12/ai-is-going-to-break-a-lot-of-norms-and-institutions.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;see &amp;nbsp;Marginal Revolution here&lt;/a&gt; for excellent disruption possibilities, such as&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;...ordinary people will have more capabilities than a CIA agent does today. You’ll be able to listen in on a conversation in an apartment across the street using the sound vibrations off a chip bag. You’ll be able to replace your face and voice with those of someone else in real time, allowing anyone to socially engineer their way into anything. Bots will slide into your DMs and have long, engaging conversations with you until it senses the best moment to send its phishing link. ... Relationships will fall apart when the AI lets you know, via microexpressions, that he didn’t really mean it when he said he loved you. Copyright will be as obsolete as sodomy law, as thousands of new Taylor Swift albums come into being with a single click. Public comments on new regulations will overflow with millions of cogent and entirely unique submissions that the regulator must, by law, individually read and respond to.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Indeed, I gather the point of the Stanford effort is precisely to regulate AI research. Which will mostly just mean China does it instead.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Yes, a university bureaucracy wants the power to stop research&amp;nbsp;&lt;i&gt;ahead of time&lt;/i&gt;&amp;nbsp;on the basis of&amp;nbsp;&lt;i&gt;its views&lt;/i&gt;&amp;nbsp;of potential social harm.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Of course a regulatory body that basically can be interpreted to ban anything that advances actual human knowledge will end up being mostly a way to use university disciplinary procedures against research that has the &quot;wrong&quot; answers. We&#39;re not firing you because of your unpopular opinions, but you failed to properly fill out your ethics and society review forms.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And &quot;accurate information&quot; curation brings up another Twitter story...&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, I&#39;m getting off track. Read the rest with a university in mind, and it is just a delicious fantasy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Why can&#39;t a Musk come in and similarly clean up a university? It&#39;s an obvious takeover target. &lt;a href=&quot;https://facts.stanford.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;$37.8 billion&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;in money it doesn&#39;t know how to use, and an obvious target for getting back to its core functions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, because Stanford is a non-profit. Non-profit doesn&#39;t mean &quot;doesn&#39;t make a profit.&quot; Non-profit really means that it does not have shares outstanding, which you can buy up if you think the thing is badly run, and clean the place up. Non-profit means protection from the market for corporate control. &amp;nbsp;(It also means a lot of subsidy from taxpayers, making competition from organizations organized as corporations much harder.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It&#39;s time to rethink whether the non-profit structure is doing what it&#39;s supposed to do. A regular corporation is perfectly free to not make money if its shareholders choose to operate that way. But bloated immoveable &quot;nonprofits&quot; don&#39;t make sense. (Anderson also notices the perversity of tax-free status, and recommends that the doctor who prescribes wealth taxes should heal itself!)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;****&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Update&lt;/i&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I went a bit off the deep end here, both on the social ethics review boards (more on that coming, it&#39;s a widespread trend and truly horrifying) and on my fantasy of getting rid of non-profit status (worth considering, but needs a more comprehensive treatment).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;There are mechanisms to fix universities. Alumi can stop giving, trustees can force change and appoint leaders who do, faculty can wake up and use faculty senates to take back control of admissions and bureaucracies, and the federal government can have a big effect. If it has a huge endowment, a bloated staff, and an ethics review board, a &quot;DEI&quot; office enforcing political conformity, and zero political/ideological diversity, don&#39;t give it money. Government can condition student aid and loans and grant overhead on reform (rather than, as now, the opposite). And eventually competitors can spring up. Privately funded research institutes, new universities are not out of the question. Also, research and teaching excellence may flow to what is now the second tier, ambitious state schools for example.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/6086781131227681519/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/twitter-and-universities.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6086781131227681519'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6086781131227681519'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/twitter-and-universities.html' title='Twitter and universities '/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-5650604147829287479</id><published>2022-12-06T21:47:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:04.876-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>Fiscal Theory of the Price Level discount coupon</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_H4bAQ37EmTQUP-5MWaVfn7jrxgv6QJfVOY-bQMR0ccK2lz8ypVvYsCpowmxK-Ah0doG0R7rt3Dy6n7vNaXkEZgAcHK774x0iXvFqJ0QwkvVcASMGvdJmUlFjppv_sOAOxVQtASL30gHZtS4yLSon9nf3-w5anrEonwwgjlt7vxqYE_U5VruZw4E/s1200/Cochrane_Discount.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;627&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1200&quot; height=&quot;334&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_H4bAQ37EmTQUP-5MWaVfn7jrxgv6QJfVOY-bQMR0ccK2lz8ypVvYsCpowmxK-Ah0doG0R7rt3Dy6n7vNaXkEZgAcHK774x0iXvFqJ0QwkvVcASMGvdJmUlFjppv_sOAOxVQtASL30gHZtS4yLSon9nf3-w5anrEonwwgjlt7vxqYE_U5VruZw4E/w640-h334/Cochrane_Discount.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level&lt;/i&gt; is now &lt;a href=&quot;https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691242248/the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;available from Princeton University Press&lt;/a&gt;. The official release date is Jan 17, but both hard cover and ebook are available sooner from Princeton. And for a limited time, 30% off! There is also an e-book sale, see the website.&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/5650604147829287479/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/fiscal-theory-of-price-level-discount.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5650604147829287479'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/5650604147829287479'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/fiscal-theory-of-price-level-discount.html' title='Fiscal Theory of the Price Level discount coupon'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_H4bAQ37EmTQUP-5MWaVfn7jrxgv6QJfVOY-bQMR0ccK2lz8ypVvYsCpowmxK-Ah0doG0R7rt3Dy6n7vNaXkEZgAcHK774x0iXvFqJ0QwkvVcASMGvdJmUlFjppv_sOAOxVQtASL30gHZtS4yLSon9nf3-w5anrEonwwgjlt7vxqYE_U5VruZw4E/s72-w640-h334-c/Cochrane_Discount.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-6552364526609712199</id><published>2022-12-02T13:59:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:05.210-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Environment"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Financial Reform"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Waller courage</title><content type='html'>While the rest of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20221202b.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fed climbs on&lt;/a&gt; the maybe-anvils-might-fall-from-the sky climate financial risk fantasy,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/waller-statement-20221202.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Chris Waller has the courage&lt;/a&gt; in Haiku-simple prose to state that the emperor has no clothes.&amp;nbsp;&lt;div&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div&gt;I cannot support this issuance of guidance on climate change. Climate change is real, but I disagree with the premise that it poses a serious risk to the safety and soundness of large banks and the financial stability of the United States. The Federal Reserve conducts regular stress tests on large banks that impose extremely severe macroeconomic shocks and they show that the banks are resilient.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;div&gt;Granted, in my view stress tests are a lot less reliable. Stress tests didn&#39;t uncover the weakness that led to the pandemic bailout, so there is no hope of them assessing climate risk. The Fed is, let us not forget, fresh off of a second huge bailout in a pandemic their stress testers never considered, and a consequent fiscal-policy inflation that their forecasters never imagined. The &quot;transition risk&quot; crowd got the sign wrong on what happens to oil company profits if you restrict fossil fuel investment. A &quot;how did we screw up so badly&quot; effort seems more important. But we need not fight about this issue. Different logic leads to the same conclusion.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Chris is right that it is completely obvious that &quot;climate risk&quot; does not conceivably imperil the financial system, or at least not with more than infinitesimal probability and a lot less than other dangers --- war, sovereign debt collapse, pandemic, etc.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Bravo, Chris. A reckoning of this highly political move will come. Yes, the Biden administration wants a &quot;whole of government&quot; effort to restrict fossil fuels and to subsidize windmills, photovoltaics and electric cars (so long as they are built in the US), but the Fed is supposed to be politically independent. Because, you know, administrations and Congresses change. I suspect caving to this pressure will cost the Fed a lot.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/6552364526609712199/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/waller-courage.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6552364526609712199'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6552364526609712199'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/12/waller-courage.html' title='Waller courage'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-4314049604831345154</id><published>2022-11-28T08:45:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:05.544-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="housing"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>California homeless math</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;From &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/californias-homelessness-problem-pits-gov-gavin-newsom-against-mayors-11669506269?mod=us_more_pos8&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;WSJ&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;California Gov. Gavin Newsom ....recently put a temporary freeze on $1 billion of state grants for city and county homelessness programs....the measures would have reduced homelessness statewide by 2% between 2020 and 2024&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[California has] more than 116,000 residents sleeping on the street on any given night.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;California has dedicated some $15 billion toward the issue since the start of the pandemic.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;$15 billion / 116,000 = &amp;nbsp;$129,310.34&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;2% x 116,000 = 2,320. $1 billion / 2,320 = $431,034.48&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/4314049604831345154/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/california-homeless-math.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/4314049604831345154'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/4314049604831345154'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/california-homeless-math.html' title='California homeless math'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-2039112347505290437</id><published>2022-11-10T17:38:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:05.876-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>The second great experiment update</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;Our great experiment in monetary economics continues.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizRIU1eDNKyQPC56SkUltrFehpoPVofuCWMPbFIwMUhqrkoLKQdjGnfGe7vsbO-VvTei9b_j14F1MmMVs26kpgTsF5RhtL8fk75K3NR9s3-kxlaN_bRPhw8Fa0fXizwBt_sOIuiGCJ9-dA56f2Cn1urhfSpMHTuQ9P1GsO2B1wl6eWgGcsd5kZhlY/s1168/fredgraph-71.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizRIU1eDNKyQPC56SkUltrFehpoPVofuCWMPbFIwMUhqrkoLKQdjGnfGe7vsbO-VvTei9b_j14F1MmMVs26kpgTsF5RhtL8fk75K3NR9s3-kxlaN_bRPhw8Fa0fXizwBt_sOIuiGCJ9-dA56f2Cn1urhfSpMHTuQ9P1GsO2B1wl6eWgGcsd5kZhlY/w640-h246/fredgraph-71.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The news of the moment is that inflation might--might--be peaking. I just present the CPI to make the point, but there seems to be a lot of news suggesting that inflation is easing off. &lt;a href=&quot;https://twitter.com/jasonfurman&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Jason Furman&#39;s twitter&lt;/a&gt; is a great source of up to the minute detailed data and analysis suggesting this view.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Of course this could also be a blip like August. And new shocks could come along. But let&#39;s explore what peaking might mean.&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As I&#39;ve written before (&lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/08/wsj-inflation-stability-oped-with.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;WSJ oped&lt;/a&gt;, &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/inflation-neutrality&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;expectations and the neutrality of interest rates&lt;/a&gt;,&quot; &lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/09/expectations-and-neutrality-of-interest.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;short version&lt;/a&gt;, &amp;nbsp;&quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/inflation-past-present-future&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Inflation past present and future&lt;/a&gt;&quot; &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/fiscal-history&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fiscal histories&lt;/a&gt;&quot; and many more) we are in the midst of a grand experiment in monetary economics. The core question: is inflation stable or unstable under an interest rate target?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Traditional theories and most conventional policy analysis states that inflation is &lt;i&gt;unstable&lt;/i&gt; under an interest rate target. If the interest rate is below the current inflation rate, inflation will spiral upwards. Inflation cannot come down until the interest rate is above the current inflation rate and stays there. By this theory, inflation should still be spiraling up.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Newer theory, which primarily uses rational (better, forward-looking or model-consistent) rather than adaptive expectations, says that inflation is stable under an interest rate target. It follows that inflation can go away all on its own, even with interest rates substantially below inflation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With fiscal theory + rational expectations, we are having a burst of inflation to devalue government debt, as a response to the 2020-2021 fiscal blowout. But once the price level has risen enough to bring the real value of debt back, it&#39;s over. Until the next shock hits.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This graph from Fiscal Histories illustrates:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx7uYbHx1T9SL5HElAYN9-kC-e-p6ecOpWNZDmI2lnc6REH4SJ9zPLbW0ic5mcowEgidwFnsoypf83JyP_OwErPalxxCL8nfzrmFJ6dfHYhjvokSGKlKrQicIB68o2moII-oWKAFKAEhu2QMszOo7CchV0d-uYm3hCbEHXD9lsmusFJXImNgfumyc/s1005/Screen%20Shot%202022-11-10%20at%205.22.47%20PM.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;807&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1005&quot; height=&quot;321&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx7uYbHx1T9SL5HElAYN9-kC-e-p6ecOpWNZDmI2lnc6REH4SJ9zPLbW0ic5mcowEgidwFnsoypf83JyP_OwErPalxxCL8nfzrmFJ6dfHYhjvokSGKlKrQicIB68o2moII-oWKAFKAEhu2QMszOo7CchV0d-uYm3hCbEHXD9lsmusFJXImNgfumyc/w400-h321/Screen%20Shot%202022-11-10%20at%205.22.47%20PM.png&quot; width=&quot;400&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The top graph illustrates what happens in response to a fiscal shock. There is a bout of inflation which devalues debt. But it goes away eventually even if the Fed does nothing, as in that simulation. The bottom graph says that the Fed can help in the short run by raising interest rates, offsetting some of the inflation at the cost of larger future inflation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, if inflation fades away despite interest rates below the inflation rate, we have a rather striking confirmation of this rational expectations view, with stable inflation, relative to the traditional spiral-away view. So, are we headed there? It&#39;s too soon for this cautious commenter to declare victory, but I am willing to provide context and say I&#39;m watching anxiously!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I read that a bit in the writings of commenters in the traditional style, such as Furman, Summers and Taylor. Though calling for higher interest rates, none seems to call for interest rates substantially above 8% (current inflation) or the 12% or more that a Taylor rule might recommend. A few more increases to 4 or 5% are enough. They seem to view that the &quot;underlying&quot; inflation is lower, 4 or 5%, and also note that inflation expectations as measured are still in that range -- direct evidence against the adaptive expectations view underlying the traditional spiral. (I don&#39;t have links, so apologies if I&#39;m characterizing their views wrongly. This is aggregated over several months.) Well, a return to 4 or 5% is also what the top simulation suggests.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I say &quot;second&quot; experiment because we&#39;ve been here before. See above, 2008. (Sorry for repeating the point, faithful readers.) Then, we had deflation below the interest rate, the Fed couldn&#39;t move, and the traditional view said deflation spiral. That didn&#39;t happen either.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The 1970s are the other interesting piece of history.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzsl-PKRpImd-qu-7fs3r8SZTnYlk4x3KWu6BVsLXOO8rVQFFjwJbtRM09LPA3AggnoEh0huregoqXf7DBqJQVd6F7kLM0-3cAcZemIiBIcOkGUt4kwoY8uF0kRIQl1kLtgYQMVCwFGy0HAqlAAgzB3hyUIPcrV7GgEV8OVwt5S3qEKhO5WYwWEM/s1168/fredgraph-70.png&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;450&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1168&quot; height=&quot;246&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzsl-PKRpImd-qu-7fs3r8SZTnYlk4x3KWu6BVsLXOO8rVQFFjwJbtRM09LPA3AggnoEh0huregoqXf7DBqJQVd6F7kLM0-3cAcZemIiBIcOkGUt4kwoY8uF0kRIQl1kLtgYQMVCwFGy0HAqlAAgzB3hyUIPcrV7GgEV8OVwt5S3qEKhO5WYwWEM/w640-h246/fredgraph-70.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;1980 is the poster chid for the view that interest rates must be substantially higher than inflation before inflation will decline. But look harder at 1975. Inflation did go down, on its own, with interest rates that never exceeded inflation. Inflation didn&#39;t get all the way back to 2%, and then rose again. One can argue about just why. &amp;nbsp; But the simplistic view that inflation will never decline until interest rates are substantially above inflation wasn&#39;t really true then either.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Usual disclaimer: all of these dynamics presume there isn&#39;t another inflationary shock. The chance of a budget blowout seems small right now, but a bad turn in Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East, or elsewhere could knock over the lab table. There is also a delicate question whether, having crossed the fiscal rubicon, even &quot;smaller&quot; current deficits are inflationary.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/2039112347505290437/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-second-great-experiment-update.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/2039112347505290437'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/2039112347505290437'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-second-great-experiment-update.html' title='The second great experiment update'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizRIU1eDNKyQPC56SkUltrFehpoPVofuCWMPbFIwMUhqrkoLKQdjGnfGe7vsbO-VvTei9b_j14F1MmMVs26kpgTsF5RhtL8fk75K3NR9s3-kxlaN_bRPhw8Fa0fXizwBt_sOIuiGCJ9-dA56f2Cn1urhfSpMHTuQ9P1GsO2B1wl6eWgGcsd5kZhlY/s72-w640-h246-c/fredgraph-71.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-841278987427773084</id><published>2022-11-04T08:30:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:06.219-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="academic freedom"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Academic Freedom Conference Opening Statement</title><content type='html'>&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Opening remarks, &lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-conference.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Conference on Academic Freedom&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;John H. Cochrane&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Nov 4 2022&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Academic Freedom Conference. I’m John Cochrane, one of the co-organizers of this conference.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;First, let us offer thanks. Most of all, we thank the Stanford GSB and its dean Jon Levin for sponsoring this conference, and sticking with us through some turbulence. We also thank the institutions listed here for sponsorship, and several generous donors. We thank the&lt;a href=&quot;https://cli.stanford.edu/events/conference-symposium/academic-freedom-conference/organizing-committee&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; organizing committee&lt;/a&gt;, which helped to identify and recruit speakers and consulted extensively. We thank all our speakers, and all of you, especially those who have traveled to be here. Most of all, Ivan Marinovic did all the hard work of putting the conference together. Thank you Ivan!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am, of course, not going to tell you what to say and not say. But any conversation is more productive if we focus it and try to keep to the point.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We gather as a group that believes academic freedom is important and under threat. But we don’t fully understand the problem or what to do about it. So, we are here to share experiences in different universities, fields, and from a diversity of viewpoints, to understand and define the problem, and to find practical solutions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We are not here to have a philosophical discussion whether academic freedom is important, and whether it is threatened. We here start from the premise that the core mission of the scholarly community is to uncover new knowledge, to debate and refine knowledge, to pass on knowledge to the next generation, and more importantly to pass on the habits and norms of critical inquiry and scholarly debate that produce true knowledge. We here start from the premise that we are losing academic freedom, and that threatens this core scholarly mission. If those of you listening on zoom or the critics of this conference wish to debate these issues, go ahead and run a different conference. Every biology conference does not start with an evolution vs. creationism debate. Time is short, and focus will make us more productive.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is a conference on academic freedom, with a lesser emphasis on free speech of political opinions. Cancellation, ostracism, and disciplinary action for political opinions, and canceling outside popular speakers are in the news. But our core question is limitations on the scholarly enterprise of research, teaching, publication, fact-finding, logical analysis, and criticism. This enterprise is damaged when scholars are canceled for political opinions, or opinions on matters like university hiring and admissions. But our focus goes beyond this to emphasize less visible but perhaps more insidious restrictions on academic activity, including direct institutional actions, by self-censorship in fear, or by good people being driven out of the academic enterprise.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is a conference on academic freedom, and not free speech and censorship in the media, on twitter, and in the general society. That is an important political problem in our democracy, but it’s not the focus of our conference. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is a conference on academic freedom, and not centrally on the substance of contentious issues. We have some noted speakers who have been criticized for their views. But we’re here primarily to learn from their experience of censorship, not to debate the merits of the particular views and research findings that got them in trouble.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Academic freedom is a problem of institutions. Twitter-mob students are visible. But the key restrictions on academic freedom lie with university leaders, university bureaucracies, hiring and promotion procedures; and beyond universities to funding agencies, professional organizations, and journals. I hope we can discuss and remedy dysfunction in all these institutions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The nexus between politics and academic freedom is a deep and troublesome question.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We designed this conference to be non-partisan. Truth knows no politics, we thought; it is likely to unsettle verities on all sides, and we know many self-identified leftists as well as rightists and libertarians who are concerned. We don’t know and didn’t ask what your politics are. We did however, make a special effort to invite people who self-identify as politically left or progressive and concerned with academic freedom. We also made a special effort to reach out to many of the people who have criticized some of our speakers; among others Stanford faculty who publicly denounced Jay Bhattacharya and Scott Atlas.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The non-response and refusals from this group was astounding, and surprising to us. If this group does not seem “balanced” to you it is by refusal to participate, not by lack of invitation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;One prominent Stanford professor, active in university academic freedom issues, spoke for many, telling us “I can’t be seen on the program with right-wing nutjobs like.…” and named a few of our speakers. At an academic freedom conference. There’s half the problem in a nutshell.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;There are now faculty protest letters and demands in the faculty senate that Stanford distance itself from this conference. Critics involved the media. They complain that we are “closed,” for restricting attendance when the room got full, and for restricting media to preserve space for participants, though these are routine for academic conferences. [The Stanford&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://gef.stanford.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;global energy forum&lt;/a&gt; of the last two days is explicitly “invitation only” without complaint, and without Bjorn Lomborg or Steve Koonin.] They complain about some of our speakers’s deplorable, to them, views. People with such views should, apparently, never allowed to speak on anything. They cherry pick one or two hated speakers, to declare us “unbalanced.” But have any of them looked up the other 35 speakers on the program? &amp;nbsp;The &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.chronicle.com/article/a-conference-says-academic-freedom-is-in-danger-critics-say-the-event-is-part-of-the-problem&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Chronicle of Higher Education &lt;/a&gt;declared this conference a “threat to democracy.” Even the Hoover Institution declined to support or co-host this conference, deeming it “too political.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The attempt failed. Stanford’s leaders have supported us, for which we are grateful, so we are still here. But young untenured faculty figured out they should not be seen here. Several more deregistered from the conference after we decided to stream the proceedings, citing fear of repercussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The irony of trying to censor the free speech conference has not occurred to them. The hypocrisy of labeling this and only this conference “political,” and demanding that this and only this conference include “wider voices,” not the long list of highly one-sided political events at Stanford, [for example, the “&lt;a href=&quot;https://wcc.stanford.edu/events-programs/stanford-gender-equity-and-justice-summit&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Gender Equity and Justice Summit&lt;/a&gt;”] likewise escapes them. Well, I guess &quot;logic&quot; is not politically fashionable, but do we have to be so obvious about it? &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We were naive. Just in setting up a conference to talk about academic freedom, we got to experience part of the problem.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I think we cannot avoid the elephant in the room. The threat to academic freedom is political, as it has always been. Free scholarship undermines narratives that sustain or are used to claim political power. &amp;nbsp;Though in the past this threat has come from both left and right, and though there are some dumb and illiberal restrictions coming from Republican state legislatures, the main threats to academic freedom inside the university, professional societies, and government agencies predominantly come from a particular far-left authoritarian political ideology, and most of the forbidden subjects today threaten their narrative. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, I think so. Maybe I’m wrong. My point is, we should talk about this too.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Some organizational notes:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;You can say what you want, but you can’t talk as long as you want. Please abide by the time limits. Moderators, please be ruthless in enforcing time limits. Please leave ample time for questions and comments from the floor. That discussion is much of the point of this event. I anticipate there will be far more comments than we can accommodate, so I encourage moderators to take a group of 5 or so comments at a time. Panelists, please keep responses short.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Each session will start on time, and end on time. At breaks, please return to the room promptly without being nagged, so we can keep to the schedule and everyone gets a chance to be heard.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Be aware that this conference is streamed, and video will be available later as well. We &amp;nbsp;originally preferred no recording and Chatham house rules. But various pressures make that impossible, and we realized there is no way to ensure privacy. So, we accepted the loss of spontaneity that a record imposes, in return for the transparency that it provides. It proves what is not said here as much as it records what is said.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Covid still runs among us, and in a group this size there is a good probability that someone is infectious. Let this be a super-spreader event of ideas, but not of disease. If you are not feeling well, please do us all a favor and watch the live stream from out of the room. If you have any doubts, please take a test. (There are a bunch at the sign in desk.) In this tolerant free-speech group, let us respect people’s individual choices to wear a mask.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;OK. Tell us what’s going on in your field, your university, your department, your curriculum committee, your classroom, your professional society, your journals, your funding agency, and tell us how we can work together to fix it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/841278987427773084/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-conference-opening.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/841278987427773084'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/841278987427773084'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-conference-opening.html' title='Academic Freedom Conference Opening Statement'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-71940691981271946</id><published>2022-11-03T08:55:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:06.561-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="academic freedom"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Academic Freedom Conference</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;On Friday and Saturday Nov. 4/5, the Stanford GSB Classical Liberalism Initiative will host a two day conference on Academic Freedom. &lt;a href=&quot;https://cli.stanford.edu/events/conference-symposium/academic-freedom-conference&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Conference website here&lt;/a&gt;, and I copy and paste the schedule below. &amp;nbsp;The room is beyond full, so we can&#39;t issue more in-person invitations. Because of that and the threat of protests (yes, a loud group at Stanford wants to silence the academic freedom / free speech conference), &amp;nbsp;we will not be able to accommodate walk-ins.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But the event will be live-streamed. If you want to watch, &lt;a href=&quot;https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScyQu5pf9LbobfSKtLsNZKNLjgBclFnjwPaJmvgE5WtTB9f3w/viewform&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;register here&lt;/a&gt; and we&#39;ll send you a link.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is a separate effort from the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/582368152716771238/5116837823746666453#&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;academic freedom declaration&lt;/a&gt; I &lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-letter.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;blogged &amp;nbsp;yesterday&lt;/a&gt;, though many of the same organizers are involved.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Academic Freedom Conference&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Academic freedom, open inquiry, and freedom of speech are under threat as they have not been for decades. Visibly, academics are “canceled,” fired, or subject to lengthy disciplinary proceedings in response to academic writing or public engagement. Less visibly, funding agencies, university bureaucracies, hiring procedures, promotion committees, professional organizations, and journals censor some kinds of research or demand adherence to political causes. Many parts of universities have become politicized or have turned into ideological monocultures, excluding people, ideas, or kinds of work that challenge their orthodoxy. Younger researchers are afraid to speak and write and don’t investigate promising ideas that they fear will endanger their careers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The two-day Academic Freedom Conference, arranged by the organizing committee, aims to identify ways to restore academic freedom, open inquiry, and freedom of speech and expression on campus and in the larger culture and restore the open debate required for new knowledge to flourish. The conference will focus on the organizational structures leading to censorship and stifling debate and how to repair them.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Schedule&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Friday, November 4, 2022&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;8:20am - 8:30am PDT Opening Remarks: John H. Cochrane&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;8:30am - 9:00am PDT Why it has Gotten Harder to Find the Truth&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jonathan Haidt Professor, Ethical Leadership at New York University Stern School of Business&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;9:00am - 10:00am PDT Academic Freedom in STEM&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Anna Krylov Professor, Chemistry at University of Southern California&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Luana Maroja Professor, Biology at Williams University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mimi St Johns Undergraduate Student, Stanford University=&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jerry Coyne Professor Emeritus, Biology at University of Chicago&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Sergiu Klainerman. Professor of Mathematics, Princeton&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;10:15am - 11:00am PDT Peter Thiel &quot;The End of the Future&quot;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Peter Thiel Partner at Founders Fund&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;11:00am - 12:00pm PDT Academic Freedom: Practical Solutions&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Richard Lowery Associate Professor of Finance · McCombs School of Business&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Dorian Abbot Associate Professor of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John Hasnas Professor of Business and Professor of Law (by courtesy) | Executive Director, Georgetown Institute for the Study of Markets and Ethics, Georgetown University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Peter Arcidiacono William Henry Glasson Professor of Economics, Duke University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Anne Beyer Professor of Accounting, Stanford&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;12:00pm - 2:30pm PDT Lunch: The Radicalization of the Academy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Lee Jussim Distinguished Professor of Psychology, Rutgers University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;2:30pm - 3:30pm PDT Are the Humanities Liberal?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Solveig Gold Thomas W. Smith Postdoctoral Research Associate, Princeton University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Joseph H. Manson Professor of Anthropology, UCLA&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John Rose Associate Director of The Civil Discourse Project at Duke&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Jennifer Burns Professor of History, Stanford&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;3:45pm - 4:45pm PDT The Economics of Academic Freedom&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Niall Ferguson Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John H. Cochrane Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Tyler Cowen Professor of Economics at George Mason University and at the Center for the Study of Public Choice&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Rob Reich Professor of Political Science, Stanford&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;5:00pm - 6:00pm PDT The State of Higher Education: USA, UK, Canada&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John M. Ellis Professor Emeritus of German Literature, University of California, Santa Cruz&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Gad Saad Professor of Marketing, Concordia University (Montreal)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Eric Kaufmann Professor of Politics, University of London&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Ivan Marinovic Professor of Accounting, Stanford&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Saturday, November 5, 2022&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;8:30am - 9:30am PDT Academic Freedom Applications: Climate Science and Biomedical Sciences&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Noah Diffenbaugh Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Bjorn Lomborg Founding Director Copenhagen Consensus&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jay Bhattacharya Professor of Health Policy, Stanford University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, Stanford University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: John H. Cochrane Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;9:30am - 10:15am PDT The War on the West: a conversation&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Douglas Murray Author and Journalist&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jordan Peterson Professor of Psychology, University of Toronto (Emeritus)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;10:45am - 12:00pm PDT Academic Freedom: What Is It and What Is It For?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Greg Lukianoff President and CEO of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Nadine Strossen John Marshall Harlan II Professor of Law, Emerita, New York Law School and Senior Fellow, FIRE (Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Richard Shweder Harold Higgins Swift Distinguished Service Professor of Human Development, University of Chicago&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hollis Robbins Dean, College of Humanities, University of Utah&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Brandice Cane-Wrone Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;12:30pm - 2:30pm PDT Lunch: Scott Atlas &quot;Academia, Science, and Public Health: Will Trust Return?&quot;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Scott Atlas Robert Wesson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;2:30pm - 3:15pm PDT Rationality and Academic Freedom&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Steven Pinker Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;3:30pm - 4:30pm PDT Academic Freedom in Law and Legal Education&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ilya Shapiro Senior Fellow and Director of Constitutional Studies, Manhattan Institute&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Michael McConnell Richard and Frances Mallery Professor and Director of the Constitutional Law Center, Stanford University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Eugene Volokh Gary T. Schwartz Distinguished Professor of Law, University of California Los Angeles&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Jeffrey Zwiebel Professor of Finance, Stanford&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;4:30pm - 5:30pm PDT The Cost of Academic Dissent&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Joshua Katz Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Frances Widdowson Independent Researcher&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Amy Wax Robert Mundheim Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Elizabeth Weiss Professor of Anthropology, San Jose State University&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moderator: Harald Uhlig Professor of Economics, University of Chicago&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/71940691981271946/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-conference.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/71940691981271946'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/71940691981271946'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-conference.html' title='Academic Freedom Conference'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3217546789370172087</id><published>2022-11-02T20:55:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:06.896-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Cancel culture"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Academic Freedom Letter</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;Some colleagues and I created an open letter on Academic Freedom. If you share our views, you are invited to sign.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The bottom line: we call for universities and professional associations to adopt &lt;i&gt;and implement &lt;/i&gt;the&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://freeexpression.uchicago.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Chicago Principles&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;of free speech, the&lt;a href=&quot;https://provost.uchicago.edu/reports/report-universitys-role-political-and-social-action&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;Kalven Report&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;requirement for institutional neutrality on political and social matters, and the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://provost.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/documents/reports/shilsrpt_0.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Shils report&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;making academic contribution the sole basis for hiring and promotion. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We include professional societies. That means you, American Economic Association and American Finance Association: With all your committees on improving the profession, you need one big one to defend the most important and imperiled part of the scholarly enterprise, academic freedom.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The letter, below, is not as comprehensive and detailed as you might like, but we worked to keep it short.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The official letter and list of signatories &lt;a href=&quot;https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_vTk2EPGqe_4pjj9KntQLKAKO8ZqfL0Pquj89TlazYA/edit?usp=sharing&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;lives here&lt;/a&gt;. If you would like to sign, you can do so by &lt;a href=&quot;https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfh0gtHHwLk2sD4Z2EUKA2y8M-nzem_MZhbVaL3zEzCFhnj9w/viewform&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;filling out this form&lt;/a&gt;. It&#39;s moderated so may take a day or two for your signature to show.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We are up to 626 signatures (11/3). When the number stabilizes we&#39;ll try to make a public fuss about the letter.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Update:&lt;/i&gt; A special plea. I have several responses from left/liberal/democrat colleagues who say they would sign, but don&#39;t want to have their names on a letter that doesn&#39;t have enough other left/liberal/democrat names on it and does have well known deplorables. (How you know 626 people&#39;s politics is beyond me, but ok.) That reaction tells us a big part of the problem. &amp;nbsp;All along we have tried very hard to reach out to self-described left/liberal/democrat colleagues, who privately bemoan what&#39;s going on but are too afraid to be seen in public. But why not fix it: if some of you sign perhaps that will give courage for more of you to sign. Take it over, get together with your friends, add lots of signatures, make this your cause, prove that we can stand together for freedom!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Restoring Academic Freedom&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The mission of the university is the pursuit of truth and the advancement and dissemination of knowledge. A robust culture of free speech and academic freedom is essential to that mission: Intellectual progress often threatens the status quo and is resisted. Bad ideas are only weeded out by unfettered critical analysis.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately, academic freedom and freedom of speech are rapidly declining in academic institutions, including universities, professional societies, journals, and funding agencies. Researchers whose findings challenge dominant narratives find it increasingly hard to get published, funded, hired, or promoted. They, and teachers who question current orthodoxies, are harassed in person and online, ostracized, subjected to opaque university disciplinary procedures, fired, or canceled by other means. Employment, promotion, and funding are increasingly subject to implicit or explicit political litmus tests, including approval from bureaucrats seeking to impose a social agenda such as specific views of social justice or DEI principles. Activism is replacing inquiry and debate. &amp;nbsp;An increasing number of simple facts and ideas cannot even be mentioned without risk of retribution.&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Public high-profile victims are the tip of the iceberg. An atmosphere of fear and self-censorship pervades academia. Many faculty and students believe they cannot voice their views, question dogmas, investigate certain topics, or question the loss of academic freedom without risking ostracization and damage to their careers. Knowledge is lost, and many talented scholars are leaving academia.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Universities and professional societies are failing to resist such illiberal forces–which have arisen many times throughout history, from all sides of the political spectrum –and to defend academic freedom and freedom of speech.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Many universities and professional organizations now qualify their support for freedom: free speech, they say, so long as the speech does not offend or exclude; free speech, so long as it does not challenge institutionally approved narratives and conceptions of social justice; free speech, but only within narrow credentialed boundaries. These restrictions are counterproductive, even to their goal of advancing a particular ideology. People infer from censorship a desire to protect lies from being exposed. Historically, censorship has supported monstrous regimes and their ideologies. Bad ideas are only defeated by argument and persuasion, not by suppression. True justice and freedom cannot exist without each other. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The loss of academic freedom results in part from a leadership crisis. While many university leaders issue statements that support open debate, they nonetheless oversee and expand politicized bureaucracies that harass, intimidate, and punish those who express views deemed to be incorrect and enforce ideological conformity in hiring and promotions. A boilerplate generic defense of free speech does little good if at the same time university administrators conduct investigations in secret, without due process, and based on anonymous complaints; if administrators publicly ostracize the victim to all potential future employers. Boards of trustees, alumni organizations, donors, government granting agencies, and other institutional stakeholders likewise fail to uphold the principles of academic freedom.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Universities and professional organizations are instead moving headlong into institutional political and ideological activism. Departments and other university units make public statements of political views, thus effectively branding as heretics -and even bigots- members who may question those causes. Increasingly, centers and “accelerators” are devoted to political and policy advocacy, advocacy of the supporting ideologies, and suppression of competing ideas. Professional organizations and journals announce, all too often, &amp;nbsp;that certain kinds of research, no matter how methodologically valid, may not be published, and have turned to advocacy. University bureaucracies demand that certain authors be included and others excluded from reading lists and classroom discussion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;What can be done?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We call for all Universities, academic associations, journals, and national academies to adopt the “Chicago Trifecta,” consisting of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://freeexpression.uchicago.edu&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Chicago Principles&lt;/a&gt; of free speech, the&lt;a href=&quot;https://provost.uchicago.edu/reports/report-universitys-role-political-and-social-action&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; Kalven Report &lt;/a&gt;requirement for institutional neutrality on political and social matters, and the &lt;a href=&quot;https://provost.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/documents/reports/shilsrpt_0.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Shils report&lt;/a&gt; making academic contribution the sole basis for hiring and promotion. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Kalven report emphasizes, &amp;nbsp;“To perform its mission in society, a university must sustain an extraordinary environment of freedom of inquiry and maintain an independence from political fashions, passions, and pressures.’’ &amp;nbsp;The University and its administrative subunits must abstain from taking position on the political issues of the day: &amp;nbsp;“While the university is the home and sponsor of critics, it is not itself the critic and therefore cannot take collective action on the issues of the day without endangering the conditions for its existence and effectiveness.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;“The neutrality of the university as an institution arises … not from lack of courage nor out of indifference and insensitivity. &amp;nbsp;It arises out of respect for free inquiry and the obligation to cherish a diversity of viewpoints.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We also call for faculty to create (or join existing) non-partisan associations, aimed at defending these values on campus, and at a national level such as FIRE, the Academic Freedom Alliance, Heterodox Academy, FAIR and ACTA. Professional organizations should prioritize the defense of academic freedom and free speech of their members.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Many universities have officially adopted the Chicago Principles. Robust structures must be developed to uphold these principles. Faculty under fire from student groups, other faculty, deans and administrators, or university staff, must be able to effectively assert their freedom of speech and inquiry by appealing to those statements.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Universities must deploy safeguards to ensure that administrators work to uphold these principles rather than to undermine them. &amp;nbsp;University disciplinary procedures must become transparent, following basic centuries-old protections of the accused such as the right to see and challenge evidence, confront witnesses against them, the right to representation, and innocence until proven guilty.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;University leaders must also promote and institutionalize free speech and academic freedom by concrete actions. Freedom is a culture, not merely a set of rules, and a culture must be nurtured. Free speech, free inquiry, tolerance for opposing views, meeting such views with argument, logic and fact, abstaining from ad-hominem attacks, character assassination, doxing and other unethical behavior must be highlighted in the orientation materials for all new students and employees. Freedom comes with a culture of responsibility, but responsibilities are better enforced by social norms than by extensive rules enforced by non-academic bureaucrats. &amp;nbsp;If community members or groups petition school leaders for the sanction or punishment of a faculty member or a student for expressing their point of view, university leaders should publicly and clearly respond with a statement affirming that the University is a place to discuss and debate all views, and that an attempt to punish others for having “incorrect” views is incompatible with the community standards of the school. &amp;nbsp;The University should also commit to all students, faculty, and employees, that it will not punish or sanction free expression. &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3217546789370172087/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-letter.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3217546789370172087'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3217546789370172087'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/academic-freedom-letter.html' title='Academic Freedom Letter'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-6859318282654163523</id><published>2022-11-02T19:40:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:07.230-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Growth"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Micro vs. macro"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>We&amp;#39;re all supply siders now -- Summers and Poilievre</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;Larry Summers wrote an interesting&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/31/inflation-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;oped at the Washington Post.&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;Mostly, he still is of the adaptive-expectations ISLM view that interest rates must exceed current inflation before inflation will decline. (&lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/08/wsj-inflation-stability-oped-with.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The issue here&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;(blogpost) and&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/inflation-neutrality&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; here&lt;/a&gt; (paper).) But listen to this:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Questions of macroeconomic policy are not about values but judgments about the ultimate effects of various actions. As Fed chair during the early 1980s, Paul Volcker famously tamed out-of-control inflation at the cost of a severe recession. But he did so not because he cared less about unemployment or worker incomes than his predecessors did but because he rightly recognized that delay in containing inflation would only mean more pain down the road.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Would we all recognize common goals, but differences on cause and effect to get there. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;That’s why it’s vital that the Federal Reserve not waver. Chair Jerome H. Powell has vowed to impose sufficiently restrictive monetary policy to return inflation to within range of the Fed’s 2 percent target. The more confident that workers, businesses and markets are that the Fed will follow through on that, the less painful the process will be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Within the conventional monetary policy community, praise for Volcker and the view, basically, that the Fed should focus on inflation and the labor market will take care of itself is sensible, but remarkably Reaganish.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The tidbit that I found most interesting&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Finally, the crisis of inflation should not be wasted. A bright spot in the dismal inflation period of the 1970s was the collaboration of Stephen G. Breyer (then counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee), Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and the Carter administration on airline deregulation. In this era, high inflation should be a spur to regulatory changes — from addressing Jones Act increases in shipping costs, to strategic tariffs, to rules that force oil and gas to be transported via truck rather than pipeline, to punitive zoning restrictions — that will both reduce prices and make the economy work better.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;As you know I&#39;ve been preaching that &quot;supply side&quot; growth is the central problem and also the key to reducing inflation. Larry hasn&#39;t quite gotten to the latter, but this is the economist most identified with &quot;secular stagnation,&quot; &quot;hysteresis&quot; and the view that all we need to do is borrow or print more money and hand it out to create growth. Now deregulation and the supply side is the key to growth.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Larry is starting to sound like a Reagan Republican! &amp;nbsp;I&#39;m sure he would say circumstances have changed -- that was ZLB (zero lower bound on interest rates), this is inflation. That&#39;s a consistent view. But inflation should wake us all up as it has Larry: All the old verities are over, there is only supply now, and that comes mostly from getting out of the way, as Larry recommends, not new &quot;investments&quot; of more borrowed money thrown down ratholes.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada&#39;s Conservative party,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://nationalpost.com/opinion/pierre-poilievre-spending-must-be-capped-to-end-liberal-induced-inflation&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;wrote a great Oped in the National Post&lt;/a&gt;. Now that Liz Truss has imploded, perhaps Poilievre will become the international hope for a successful free market libertarian politician.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland wants us to believe she has had an epiphany. After years of ignoring my warnings that Liberal deficit spending would cause inflation to balloon, followed by interest rates, she now claims to agree with me in a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/10/19/chrystia-freeland-warns-cabinet-ministers-new-programs-must-be-funded-by-budget-cuts.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;leaked letter&lt;/a&gt; to fellow ministers. Even her boss, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is uttering words unthinkable to him not long ago: “&lt;a href=&quot;https://globalnews.ca/news/9217165/canada-fiscal-responsibility-trudeau-recession/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;fiscal responsibility&lt;/a&gt;.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The cost of government is driving up the cost of living. A half-trillion dollars of inflationary deficits have sent more dollars chasing fewer goods, which always leads to higher prices.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;We&#39;re all FTPLers (fiscal theory of the price level) now, some sooner than others. A clear explanation of how central banks create money and buy treasury debt follows. Then&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;the Bank of Canada must pay interest — at the going rate. Because rates are now rising, the central bank is now losing money and will need a bailout from the federal government for the first time in history — something I predicted would happen two years ago.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Fiscal constraints on monetary policy. Nice.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Liberals like to say that all this inflation is the result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But less than 0.3 per cent of Canada’s trade is with those two countries, and the things that they produce are things we already have — food and energy. In fact, the higher commodity prices should have helped our resource-heavy economy, but for the fact that the Trudeau government has hit farmers with fertilizer tariffs and carbon taxes and blocked or bungled every single pipeline or LNG export terminal proposed in seven years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Beside my thread, but an important point. His bottom line&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Instead of creating more cash, we need our economy to produce more of what cash buys: more food, energy and homes. That means removing gatekeepers that have made Canada the second slowest country in all the OECD to get a building permit. As prime minister I would challenge all three levels of government to work together to offer the fastest building permits in the OECD. This would mean going from 250 days to 28 days to beat the now first-placed South Korea....We would remove taxes and tariffs on farmers’ fuel and fertilizer....Finally, we would reform our taxes to reward work, savings, and investment so our workers and businesses can produce more of the goods we need.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;Simply put, we would stop creating cash and start creating more of what cash buys: food, homes, energy, manufactured goods and more. That is the only path to bigger buying power for paycheques and savings.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;FTPL and deregulation-focused supply side growth. Well, us free market libertarians are like Chicago Cubs fans, there&#39;s always hope!&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/6859318282654163523/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/we-all-supply-siders-now-summers-and.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6859318282654163523'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/6859318282654163523'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/we-all-supply-siders-now-summers-and.html' title='We&amp;#39;re all supply siders now -- Summers and Poilievre'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-1635501610182545164</id><published>2022-11-02T19:13:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:07.564-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Debt"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Fiscal Theory"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>Ip on FTPL</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;Greg Ip gives nice coverage of fiscal theory of the price level in the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-solve-inflation-first-solve-deficits-this-theory-advises-11667391310&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wall Street Journal&lt;/a&gt;..&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I&#39;m sad he left out &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/030439329190007B&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Eric Leeper&#39;s defining work&lt;/a&gt;, which really even more than Sargent and Wallace started modern FTPL. Eric described monetary policy with interest rates, not money supplies, and integrated FTPL with the now dominant new-Keyensian tradition.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Naturally I&#39;m a bit rankled by&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;But FTPL is frustratingly difficult to apply to real life.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;and&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;A theory that doesn’t predict inflation but explains it only after the fact by invoking hard-to-measure attitudes isn’t that satisfying, and certainly no better than mainstream macroeconomic models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Well, that also means no worse than mainstream models. And&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/news-op-eds-all/inflation-nro&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; I was publicly warning of inflation &lt;/a&gt;in April 2021, though I&#39;m too much of an academic to make much of one data point. The FTPL analysis of the ZLB is, I think more convincing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Yes it would be nice if FTPL could tell you just when too much debt is too much. It would also be nice if the theory of finance could tell you just what a stock should be worth. And it would be nice if any theory, or the Fed itself, did a good job of predicting inflation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A nice nugget,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;fiscal stimulus had some role in pushing inflation up, and as the Fed raises interest rates to combat that inflation, it will worsen deficits. Britain had to abandon deficit-financed tax cuts over fears they would drive inflation and interest rates higher. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire recently warned: “Central banks’ restrictive policies are ineffective if public finances continue to expand.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;It seems we&#39;re all FTPLers now.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But I&#39;m whining. For the length it&#39;s excellent. This is a hard topic and most journalists get things wrong. &amp;nbsp;And I am grateful for the publicity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/1635501610182545164/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/ip-on-ftpl.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1635501610182545164'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1635501610182545164'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/11/ip-on-ftpl.html' title='Ip on FTPL'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-1989092754296699310</id><published>2022-10-28T08:30:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:07.898-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="art"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Euro"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="European Debt Crisis"/><title type='text'>Economics Art</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;I was researching the European Stability Mechanism this morning for a paper on the evolution of the euro, and I ran across this gem of economics art on the &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.esm.europa.eu/how-we-decide/esm/governance&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;ESM webpage&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFFgfqjJp_xynFkzHmG_XLKuBzcbxx2jXJITp4V_gVWITnK79Oc2fnSBiZ9PwBPnVxQEFBjq8fiSR5fK08oKzuAMOkQwJKieo-1sMge_OGe6YuHCNNlblfAGgEr9NeXqTn72Vy-db4pmvZ9zEgk1ozuAJUAuuYFlAYoUzHc9wpykrT1w_6usiWkNA/s1268/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-28%20at%208.23.45%20AM.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1268&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1174&quot; height=&quot;640&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFFgfqjJp_xynFkzHmG_XLKuBzcbxx2jXJITp4V_gVWITnK79Oc2fnSBiZ9PwBPnVxQEFBjq8fiSR5fK08oKzuAMOkQwJKieo-1sMge_OGe6YuHCNNlblfAGgEr9NeXqTn72Vy-db4pmvZ9zEgk1ozuAJUAuuYFlAYoUzHc9wpykrT1w_6usiWkNA/w592-h640/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-28%20at%208.23.45%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;592&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;Put on your mechanical engineer hat for a moment. This is a set of gears that &lt;i&gt;literally cannot turn&lt;/i&gt;. To say nothing of the wisdom of putting belts on gears. Perhaps this is a subtle cry for help?&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;(The ESM is sort of europe&#39;s internal IMF that can lend money to strapped governments with conditions.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/1989092754296699310/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/economics-art.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1989092754296699310'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1989092754296699310'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/economics-art.html' title='Economics Art'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFFgfqjJp_xynFkzHmG_XLKuBzcbxx2jXJITp4V_gVWITnK79Oc2fnSBiZ9PwBPnVxQEFBjq8fiSR5fK08oKzuAMOkQwJKieo-1sMge_OGe6YuHCNNlblfAGgEr9NeXqTn72Vy-db4pmvZ9zEgk1ozuAJUAuuYFlAYoUzHc9wpykrT1w_6usiWkNA/s72-w592-h640-c/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-28%20at%208.23.45%20AM.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3532052407354807422</id><published>2022-10-25T07:48:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:08.236-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Growth"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="housing"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Labor"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Macro"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Micro vs. macro"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Taxes"/><title type='text'>Truss Tragedy</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;(at &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tragedy-liz-truss-right-policy-goals-bad-messaging-politics-by-john-h-cochrane-and-jon-hartley-2022-10?utm_source=twitter&amp;amp;utm_medium=organic-social&amp;amp;utm_campaign=page-posts-oct22&amp;amp;utm_post-type=link&amp;amp;utm_format=16:9&amp;amp;utm_creative=quote-card&amp;amp;utm_post-date=2022-10-25&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Project Syndicate&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Liz Truss Tragedy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;The former British prime minister’s downfall holds important lessons for growth-minded policymakers in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. While her diagnosis of the country’s economic problem was spot on, she fatally mismanaged both the politics and the messaging of her policy response.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;STANFORD – Liz Truss’s stint as British prime minister is over, but she was right that the United Kingdom needs growth. Her downfall is tragic, because growth is the only path out of the country’s economic dilemma.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The UK is surprisingly poor. Its &lt;a href=&quot;https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&amp;amp;country=USA~GBR&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;GDP per capita &lt;/a&gt;is just $43,000, compared to $60,000 in the United States. The average British home is &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businessinsider.com/ons-english-homes-are-a-third-of-the-size-of-american-homes-2017-10&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;one-third&lt;/a&gt; the size of the average US home. Worse, the country’s economy is not growing. Its GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2007.&lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RTFPNAGBA632NRUG&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; Productivity &lt;/a&gt;– the underlying source of economic growth – has been flat for over a decade.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The UK desperately needs supply-side reforms. Surging inflation tells us that demand-side stimulus is a spent force.&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;If anything, Truss’s proposed reforms were too mild. A &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/03/liz-truss-abandon-plan-scrap-45p-top-rate-income-tax-tory-revolt-kwasi-kwarteng-chancellor&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;40% top marginal income tax rate&lt;/a&gt; (down from 45%) would not make the UK a low-tax free-market Shangri-La, especially considering that it would also still have a 20% value-added tax (VAT), national insurance taxes, property taxes, corporate taxes, and more. Recall that US President Ronald Reagan and Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill (a Democrat) cut the top federal marginal rate from &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/reagan-signs-economic-recovery-tax-act-erta&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;70% to 28%&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Truss also proposed free-market “&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/30/liz-truss-to-push-ahead-with-unlimited-investment-zones-despite-costs-row&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;investment zones&lt;/a&gt;.” But if one accepts that pro-investment tax and planning conditions are good in blighted areas, why not the whole country?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The UK is at a post-Brexit crossroads. Will it become a free-trade, entrepreneurial, financial hub – a “&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.courthousenews.com/will-u-k-become-a-singapore-on-the-thames-rival-to-europe/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Singapore on Thames&lt;/a&gt;”? Or does Brexit mean protecting and subsidizing inefficient businesses and places even more than the European Union allows?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately, we now know the answer. Truss’s critics have no counterproposal that has any chance of reigniting growth. The stage is set for further high-tax, high-subsidy, over-regulated decline.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As sound as Truss’s plans were in economic-policy terms, her government’s handling of the messaging and the politics was spectacularly inept. That is an important lesson for those of us who want to see more growth-oriented policies in the US, Canada, and Europe.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;One obvious mistake was Truss’s announcement of a £&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-03/truss-spending-may-contribute-to-60-billion-shortfall-ft-says&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;60 billion&lt;/a&gt; ($68 billion) blowout to hold down gas prices. That is not a good way to launch a pro-growth revolution.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;She then moved on to “&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.npr.org/2022/10/23/1130782408/how-liz-truss-aggressive-tax-cutting-policy-led-to-her-downfall&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;tax cuts&lt;/a&gt;,” predictably raising the ire of the high-tax intelligentsia. In announcing the policy, neither Truss nor her chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, explained the point of lowering tax rates. For example, Kwarteng &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.ft.com/content/3c067e28-e33a-4bda-9f2e-81a109966b20&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;sold &lt;/a&gt;tax cuts as “putting money back into people’s pockets.” But such Keynesian stimulus is the last thing the country needs amid historic inflation. Kwarteng should have explained that lower tax rates improve the incentives to work, save, invest, start a business, or, in the case of corporate taxes, move a business to the UK or keep it there. (Ideally, one cuts tax rates but broadens the base, maintaining revenues until spending falls.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;If you can’t explain that clearly and consistently, you either don’t understand or believe your own message, or you think voters are too dumb to comprehend it. Either way, your revolution will fail. In the face of predictable, implacable hostility from the entrenched left-wing media and economic commentariat, a free-market revolution needs great communicators.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;By starting with taxes and subsidies, Truss and Kwarteng guaranteed that nobody would pay attention to the most important parts of the plan: the essential pro-growth regulatory reforms that they had described in the 2012 book &lt;i&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137032249&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Britannia Unchained&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/i&gt;. Britain’s housing restrictions, as in the US, lead to absurdly high prices, which stymies many businesses and the workers they might hire. The situation is especially harmful to less-advantaged people who cannot afford to live near high-productivity jobs. Truss had also &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/new-uk-pm-truss-wants-more-oil-gas-extraction-north-sea-2022-09-07/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;planned&lt;/a&gt; to bring back North Sea oil production and lift the UK’s ban on fracking. These are sensible responses to a global energy crisis.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The lesson is that growth-minded policymakers should start with microeconomic reforms. Everyone can see that over-regulation and restrictions on housing and energy production are hobbling supply. Even climate-change activists are noticing that it is &lt;a href=&quot;https://theconversation.com/onshore-wind-farm-restrictions-continue-to-stifle-britains-renewable-energy-potential-147812&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;too difficult&lt;/a&gt; to get permits for windmills and transmission lines. Everyone can see that schools are awful and&lt;a href=&quot;https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2021/06/02/current-state-english-school-system&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; getting worse&lt;/a&gt;. Workers as well as business owners and managers can see that labor&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5135628_Employment_Regulations_through_the_Eyes_of_Employers_Do_They_Matter_and_How_Do_Firms_Respond_to_Them&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; regulations&lt;/a&gt; are straitjacketing their workplaces. People can see in everyday experience how social-program disincentives lead some people not to work at all.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Patiently explaining these problems to voters can also make for good politics. We all long for simple mind-the-store competence in our governments. Fixing dysfunction is a visible achievement that works right away, with no short-run cost.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Truss’s handling of the politics was even worse than her marketing. Margaret Thatcher and Reagan faced the same withering scorn from the chattering classes, and they had to endure years of hardship before their reforms took root. But they held firm.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Truss’s critics seized on UK bond-market hiccups, though these were tiny compared to those of the 1980s. They also were largely attributable to the Bank of England &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bank-england-raises-rates-225-despite-likely-recession-2022-09-22/#:~:text=The%20BoE&#39;s%20Monetary%20Policy%20Committee,a%20smaller%20rise%20to%202%25.&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;raising rates&lt;/a&gt;, and to a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/how-uk-pension-fund-risks-almost-toppled-britain-s-bond-market&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;pension &lt;/a&gt;risk regulation fiasco. [Previous posts ending &lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/10/more-uk-finance-regulatory-failure.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.] Nonetheless, Truss quickly gave in. By starting with an energy blowout to placate the left, she already encouraged her opponents to go in for the kill. When a shark is on your trail, you don’t offer it a foot and then assume that you’ll both get along. When an iron lady was needed, Truss proved to be made of straw.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The US, too, is a high-tax, over-regulated, over-subsidized, high-debt, slow-growth economy. For us, too, supply-side reforms are the only way out. Yet many of our conservative voices now pander to voters by advocating big-government big-tax nationalism, protectionism, subsidies, and crony capitalism, albeit directed in different directions than the left.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For those of us who still understand that the only real solution lies in economic freedom and small, competent government, Truss’s downfall offers important lessons. We must heed them so that we don’t blow our chance if we get one.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution and an adjunct scholar at the CATO Institute.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jon Hartley is a PhD student in economics at Stanford University and a research fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;****&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;PS, every bone in my body wanted to join the chorus yelling &amp;nbsp;&quot;Hooray for fiscal theory of the price level, here come the bond market vigilantes I&#39;ve been warning about for 20 years&quot; in response to the interest rate hiccups surrounding Truss&#39; plan. But in honesty I cannot. The tax cuts were small, UK debt to GDP less than the US, similar tax cuts and raises have come and gone with nary a peep from the bond market -- Trump for example -- and the UK still borrows at negative rates. Look at interest rates in 1980. It doesn&#39;t add up. FTPL references debt to long-term ability to repay. You can&#39;t just pick and choose data points that coincide with your story and ignore the others. The point of asset markets is that nobody really knows why they move. Maybe it&#39;s true, but I need some indication that these small tax cuts really are the fiscal cliff.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Update: &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/rishi-sunak-wont-frack-u-k-natural-gas-liz-truss-russia-vladimir-putin-11666901841&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Rishi Sunk won&#39;t allow fracking&lt;/a&gt;&quot; WSJ. Here we go.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3532052407354807422/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/truss-tragedy.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3532052407354807422'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3532052407354807422'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/truss-tragedy.html' title='Truss Tragedy'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-1380141938212063836</id><published>2022-10-25T07:29:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:08.572-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Inflation"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Monetary Policy"/><title type='text'>Inflation Expectations</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSTzApO8oDUDOV0VKxQNdL8Vx1OxW9gzq4_SOY82OfkrfJGYNlF1ZQ4mKtcr7HOwbX2BtO8a2wSh5-ufgI0x2K7kgWJB4s-Mon20DNWc60lGOtMuNq5uAXKG4JDAVZlP_rRvYy7HBCrlmW6v337Az1DQNkddkYh-h1CQ80Kuzse3PZ54AkHhPgrU/s1624/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-25%20at%207.18.07%20AM.png&quot; imageanchor=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;1118&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1624&quot; height=&quot;440&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSTzApO8oDUDOV0VKxQNdL8Vx1OxW9gzq4_SOY82OfkrfJGYNlF1ZQ4mKtcr7HOwbX2BtO8a2wSh5-ufgI0x2K7kgWJB4s-Mon20DNWc60lGOtMuNq5uAXKG4JDAVZlP_rRvYy7HBCrlmW6v337Az1DQNkddkYh-h1CQ80Kuzse3PZ54AkHhPgrU/w640-h440/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-25%20at%207.18.07%20AM.png&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;From Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management. The picture says it all, but Torsten&#39;s commentary is especially good:&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Inflation will be coming down over the coming quarters. This is what the Fed is predicting, that is what the consensus is expecting, and that is what we are predicting. The problem is that this has been the forecast ever since inflation started going up in April 2021, see chart below. Given how systematically wrong inflation forecasts have been over the past 18 months, there are good reasons to be cautious about the current forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is also how market expectations have evolved. Is inflation inherently unpredictable? Are we collectively in thrall of the same wrong model? Does &quot;expectation&quot; mean the same thing in models and surveys? Are market risk premiums really important? &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/1380141938212063836/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/inflation-expectations.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1380141938212063836'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/1380141938212063836'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/inflation-expectations.html' title='Inflation Expectations'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSTzApO8oDUDOV0VKxQNdL8Vx1OxW9gzq4_SOY82OfkrfJGYNlF1ZQ4mKtcr7HOwbX2BtO8a2wSh5-ufgI0x2K7kgWJB4s-Mon20DNWc60lGOtMuNq5uAXKG4JDAVZlP_rRvYy7HBCrlmW6v337Az1DQNkddkYh-h1CQ80Kuzse3PZ54AkHhPgrU/s72-w640-h440-c/Screen%20Shot%202022-10-25%20at%207.18.07%20AM.png" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-48517719354708095</id><published>2022-10-14T15:12:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:08.902-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Banking"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Finance"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Financial Reform"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>More UK finance regulatory failure</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;In previous blog posts&lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/09/a-familiar-finance-fable-in-uk-bonds.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; here &lt;/a&gt;and &lt;a href=&quot;https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/10/uk-finance-fable-update.html&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;, I criticized UK financial regulators for missing simple leverage and margin requirements in UK pension funds. To be clear, I don&#39;t criticize the people. The point is, if after 10 years of intense regulation, a group of really smart and dedicated people can&#39;t see plain old leverage, the whole project of regulating risks is broken. And it&#39;s not just the UK. The Fed bailed out money market funds in 2020. Again.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I insinuated the regulators were not paying attention. I was wrong. It turns out they &lt;i&gt;were &lt;/i&gt;paying attention. Which makes the failure all the more stark. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In Friday&#39;s Wall Street Journal, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-bond-investors-bets-blow-up-they-might-usher-in-era-of-higher-rates-11665658801&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Greg Ip writes&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2018, the Bank of England investigated whether a big rise in interest rates would trigger a cascade of forced selling by bond investors, destabilizing the financial system. The answer was no,&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;That they &lt;i&gt;did&lt;/i&gt; think about it, and they missed it anyway is even more damning for the regulate-risks project.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;Part of the explanation:&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;even if long-term rates rose a full percentage point in a week, which had never happened in records going back to 1990.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the days surrounding the British government’s tax-cut announcement on Sept. 23, yields on British government bonds, called gilts, gyrated as much as 1.27 points in a single day&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is part of the problem of regulation. Regulators test a single number, 1.00000 percent rise. But 1.27%? The world ends. Also it&#39;s fairly easy to make a strategy that is safe up to 1.0000 percent but blows up at 1.0001 percent.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;“The speed and scale of the moves in gilt yields was unprecedented,” the bank explained in a letter to Parliament. The refrain sounded familiar: the stock market crash of 1987, the near-failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, and the housing and mortgage crisis of 2007-09 were all precipitated by financial prices moving violently, by magnitudes outside historical experience.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Isn&#39;t the point of regulation and stress testing to worry about &quot;unprecedented&quot; events? After all, one might trust markets to think about precedented events. And, as the rest of the paragraph points out, it does seem like we&#39;re getting 100 year floods every 2 or 3 years these days.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The regulators even thought about derivatives and margin. Kudos. They just got the answer wrong.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In its November, 2018 financial stability report, the Bank of England included a lengthy analysis of leverage at pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and other “nonbanks.” It was mostly concerned that margin calls could lead to forced sales of assets that the market couldn’t absorb without big price moves. It concluded any such selling would be small “as a proportion of the total demand on market liquidity,” even if rates rose a full percentage point in a single day or week, which “has never been experienced in 10-year sterling swap rates looking back to 1990. Even over a month, it would be a 1-in-1,000 event,” plenty of time for a relatively smooth adjustment, BOE wrote.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Is it cheeky to point out that climate risk to the financial system has never happened in 1000 years? &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In part thanks to those benign assumptions, the notional value of LDIs soared from £400 billion in 2011 to £1.6 trillion, equivalent to $1.7 trillion, last year, a staggering sum. This indirectly put downward pressure on long-term interest rates, making investors’ expectation of low rates partly self-fulfilling. But as high inflation sent rates higher this year, the opposite happened. LDI positions began to lose money. The jump in yields following the tax-cut announcement triggered widespread margin calls and forced liquidation of positions. A strategy that had once amplified downward pressure on rates is now doing the opposite.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;When regulators bless risk taking, that absolves market participants of a lot of due diligence. Like the FDA approving a pill. So regulatory blindness can make matters even worse.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Again, it&#39;s not the people, it&#39;s the system. Allowing massive leverage but trusting regulators to regulate risk is broken. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;***&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A lesson in bond yields vs. bond prices for your MBA class.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mike Johannes at Columbia sends a great trio of graphs:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRaKIg3uU9kYjpz7SrKnfgC8AMHBpTl0HGiB9ppqo4iU2cmC_b-k3-R_WjBKkc_UU5UVOUN1yTKN8XIIAbnvjzjO2mdSODEHC8TyG2H52EzKE4O2Hf9uwcb60ej1S-R_bvqlGKFa_quAaqrpTLD2bk4feM_stHVu9tL_nAWRUN3dHytHcMc-1Ce4/s1916/image001.gif&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;910&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1916&quot; height=&quot;304&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRaKIg3uU9kYjpz7SrKnfgC8AMHBpTl0HGiB9ppqo4iU2cmC_b-k3-R_WjBKkc_UU5UVOUN1yTKN8XIIAbnvjzjO2mdSODEHC8TyG2H52EzKE4O2Hf9uwcb60ej1S-R_bvqlGKFa_quAaqrpTLD2bk4feM_stHVu9tL_nAWRUN3dHytHcMc-1Ce4/w640-h304/image001.gif&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is the UK sovereign yield curve. Reading from the bottom, 28, 6, 2 months ago, and now. Looking at the long end, it rises from 1% to a bit over 3%. 3% long-term yields used to be considered very low. This is a disaster? Aha, at low yields, small rises in yield mean big declines in prices. Here are the prices:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhApHGz3OKkXqK0OrjgxHp8FsjfcBtpaOUEsClYOpyLut5YWQr4gHvgNwtmJ07BCJ__xT7kPi9QCRSrH77Ub407Y4nk1dr8ZHz7DLI0c3iFYK2t-hYB48xGCnpYoirknUAm0gYueNEvOrmeoN03oqRQPQnPUf7w0WB5Ls8EXTkCko4G3Yc0U7OklOo/s1916/screenshot_1665409436027%20(002).gif&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;910&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1916&quot; height=&quot;304&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhApHGz3OKkXqK0OrjgxHp8FsjfcBtpaOUEsClYOpyLut5YWQr4gHvgNwtmJ07BCJ__xT7kPi9QCRSrH77Ub407Y4nk1dr8ZHz7DLI0c3iFYK2t-hYB48xGCnpYoirknUAm0gYueNEvOrmeoN03oqRQPQnPUf7w0WB5Ls8EXTkCko4G3Yc0U7OklOo/w640-h304/screenshot_1665409436027%20(002).gif&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;The price of nominal bonds has gone from 100 to 29!&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;separator&quot; style=&quot;clear: both; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBW1pTPD6d_lInnb4wrsd-Az-hlc-30l5qtrxPrvAOXcBIaVQ_gRM4jYkVXk2ZIU2nXinNugDxzfHHXtmlKwX_QCFbevPD_8DmhZAATkHbZA7H6N_99vUyXmKkd1ki8TiCWBznowwzosFlM3qVATLmWd68kZt9dvmuHaxEotdhnpl6_ecDSrtgD4g/s1916/screenshot_1665409352764%20(002).gif&quot; style=&quot;margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;&quot;&gt;&lt;img border=&quot;0&quot; data-original-height=&quot;910&quot; data-original-width=&quot;1916&quot; height=&quot;304&quot; src=&quot;https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBW1pTPD6d_lInnb4wrsd-Az-hlc-30l5qtrxPrvAOXcBIaVQ_gRM4jYkVXk2ZIU2nXinNugDxzfHHXtmlKwX_QCFbevPD_8DmhZAATkHbZA7H6N_99vUyXmKkd1ki8TiCWBznowwzosFlM3qVATLmWd68kZt9dvmuHaxEotdhnpl6_ecDSrtgD4g/w640-h304/screenshot_1665409352764%20(002).gif&quot; width=&quot;640&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The price of indexed bonds went from 400 to 100.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Now time to say something nice: The UK government made out like a bandit here. I&#39;ve been yelling for over a decade that the US should issue long term bonds, precisely to insure against interest rate rises. The UK did that. On a mark to market basis, bondholder loss=government gain. The UK locked in a lot of astoundingly low-interest borrowing. Pensions may be in trouble, but long term debt is great for governments. So long, that is, as the government doesn&#39;t turn around and bail out everyone to whom it sold long term debt!&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;*****&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Update:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the comments, SRP points to a great post by &lt;a href=&quot;https://streetwiseprofessor.com/clearing-is-not-a-harmless-bunny-i-told-you-that-i-told-you-that-i-told-you-ad-infinitum-that-i-told-you-so/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Streetwise Professor&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;AKA Craig Pirrong, who argues that derivatives margin was the central problem, not leverage. In his story, a typical pension fund has fixed long term liabilities, pensions. Rather than buy bonds, borrow against bonds, and invest in stocks, as I asserted, the typical fund just buys stocks and then a big receive-fixed pay-floating swap to cover its pension obligations. It&#39;s the same thing economically, but achieved via the swap contract. Now, interest rates rise, and the swap contract needs massive cash collateral. I hope I got this right.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The instability was centered on UK pension funds engaged in a strategy called Liability Directed Investment (LDI)–which should now be renamed Liquidity Danger Investment. In a nutshell, in LDI defined benefit pension funds hedge the interest rate risk in their liabilities through interest rate swaps that are cleared or otherwise margined daily on a mark-to-market basis, rather than investing in fixed income securities that generate cash flows that match the liabilities. The funds hold non-fixed income assets (sometimes referred to as “growth assets”) in lieu of fixed income. ...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;On a MTM basis, the funds are hedged: a rise in interest rates causes a decline in the present value of the liabilities, which matches a decline in the value of the swaps. Even if there is a duration match, however, there is not a liquidity match. A rise in interest rates generates no cash inflow on the liabilities (even though they have declined in value), but the clearing/margining of the swaps leads to a variation margin outflow: the funds have to stump up cash to meet VM obligations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;And this has happened in a big way due to interest rate increases driven by central bank tightening and the deteriorating fiscal situation in the UK (which has been exacerbated substantially by the energy situation, and the British government’s commitment to absorb a large fraction of energy costs). This led to big margin calls . . . which the funds did not have cash to cover. So, cue a fire sale: the funds dumped their most liquid assets–UK government gilts–which overwhelmed the risk bearing capacity/liquidity of that market, leading to a further spurt in interest rates . . . which led to more VM obligations. Etc., etc., etc.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;But note here that the funds have to have substantial gilts to sell. So they&#39;re not entirely investing in equities and swapping the interest rates.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The BofE piece also suggests that the underlying issue here is pension fund underfunding. In essence, the pension funds needed to jack up returns to close their funding gap. So instead of investing in fixed income assets with cash flows that mirrored those of its pension liabilities, the funds invested in higher returning assets like equities. Just investing in fixed income would have locked in the funding gap: investing in equities increased the odds of becoming fully funded. But just investing in equities alone would have subjected the funds to substantial interest rate risk. So the LDI strategies were intended to immunize them against this risk.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/48517719354708095/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/more-uk-finance-regulatory-failure.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/48517719354708095'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/48517719354708095'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/more-uk-finance-regulatory-failure.html' title='More UK finance regulatory failure'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRaKIg3uU9kYjpz7SrKnfgC8AMHBpTl0HGiB9ppqo4iU2cmC_b-k3-R_WjBKkc_UU5UVOUN1yTKN8XIIAbnvjzjO2mdSODEHC8TyG2H52EzKE4O2Hf9uwcb60ej1S-R_bvqlGKFa_quAaqrpTLD2bk4feM_stHVu9tL_nAWRUN3dHytHcMc-1Ce4/s72-w640-h304-c/image001.gif" height="72" width="72"/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-8531596865528800695</id><published>2022-10-14T07:00:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:09.237-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Banking"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Economists"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Finance"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Financial Reform"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Nobel"/><title type='text'>Nobels and financial crises</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;(At &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/10/what-this-years-nobel-economists-can-teach-us-about-financial-crises/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;National Review&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;What This Year’s Nobel Economists Can Teach Us about Financial Crises&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This week, economists are celebrating the Nobel Prize given to Ben Bernanke, Doug Diamond and Phil Dybvig for their work on banking.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Bernanke pointed out that banks matter. In the Great Depression, banks failed, and there was nobody left who knew how to make new loans. The economy contracted, not just for lack of money or for animal spirits of investors, but for lack of credit. Diamond and Dybvig wrote the classic economic model of bank runs, which shows how banks can fail even when they are “illiquid” rather than “insolvent.” The logic works like this: The bank has invested our money in illiquid projects, so if I suspect others are going to run to get their money out, I run to get mine out first before it’s all gone.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But it is no insult to say that these are not eternal verities. The papers were written about 40 years ago. Each was the launching pad for a vast and important investigation. Indeed, Nobel Prizes largely recognize that sort of lasting influence on subsequent work. But that subsequent investigation opens new possibilities. Newton is no less profound for having been followed by Einstein. Each also sought to understand the world as it was, which is how one should start. But there are other possibilities for how the world might be — and how it might be better.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;a name=&#39;more&#39;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;Economics might seem obvious. George Bailey and Michael Banks understood bank runs, didn’t they? Economic analysis lets us see all the ingredients that a banking crisis needs, and therefore how they might be avoided. Bank failure and bank runs are actually fragile phenomena. A lot has to go wrong. There are lots of ways to fix them [i.e. not just bailouts and deposit insurance].&amp;nbsp;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Bankruptcy does not mean a giant crater where there once was a bank. It means reorganization. Stockholders and creditors lose money, and valuable operations continue under new management. Why, if the Farmers and Mechanics bank of Nowhere Nebraska failed in the Great Depression, did Chase or Citi not swoop in, buy the assets at a discount, and keep employed the people that Bernanke pointed out had unique and detailed knowledge of how to make profitable loans? Because interstate and branch banking was illegal. Banks could not list stock on exchanges, and had to find new capital from local businesspeople, whose businesses were failing. But all that has changed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Diamond and Dybvig’s 1983 article, being a beautiful essay in economic theory, is even more stark. As you read the article, you will be struck by the number of assumptions needed to get a bank run going. Each is necessary. If people are lining up to get money out, why does the bank not borrow against its valuable illiquid assets? Before the Fed, clearinghouses were set up just for this purpose. Why does the bank not issue additional equity? Why can’t the bank sell loans, rather than accept half-built houses that it does not know how to finish? Why doesn’t the bank get money to invest by issuing floating-value securities instead of first-come-first-serve deposits? Why not &amp;nbsp;suspend payments? All of these channels and more must be turned off to get a bank run going. Showing clearly just what it takes to get a run going is Diamond and Dybvig’s masterful insight.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Diamond and Dybvig showed how deposit insurance, the expedient implemented in the 1930s, could stop bank runs. If the government stands behind deposits, there is no need to run, One concludes more generally that government as a lender of last resort, creditor bailouts, and government recapitalization can stop crises, as Bernanke showed personally in 2008.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But do not conclude that these are the only, or best ways to stop financial crises. [They didn&#39;t say that.] Moreover, deposit insurance and bailouts stop a crisis once it is happening. But they lead to too much risk-taking by financial institutions, and by depositors who know they don’t have to worry about the bank’s investments. We need a better system.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The current patch is to have regulators try to keep banks from taking too many risks. But we have seen that mechanism fail over and over again. Regulators failed to see mortgages build up; they failed to see that Greek debt might not be so hot for banks to hold; they failed to “stress test” a pandemic, leading to a second massive bailout; they failed to see the possibility of an energy price increase. They didn’t even fix money-market funds, bailed out again in 2020, and the simplest to fix. Last week, we saw that U.K. regulators failed to see plain-vanilla leverage in pension funds. We shall soon see who else is exposed to sharp interest-rate rises in ways that the regulators have not foreseen.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The model — allow lots of run-prone assets, stop runs with deposit insurance and bailouts, stop risk-taking with regulation — has run its course. The next bailout will be so big, it is questionable that our governments can do it without major inflation or sovereign-credit stress.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It’s time for another idea from the 1930s, and analyzed in the 2000s with the kinds of contemporary tools our Nobelists brought forth: Banks should fund risky investments by issuing equity, now extremely liquid. Run-prone securities like deposits should be backed 100 percent by reserves or short-term Treasury securities. (Details in &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/toward-a-run-free-financial-systemnbsp&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Toward a Run-Free Financial System&lt;/a&gt;.&quot;)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It’s a simple model; it requires next to no regulation; and we can end private financial crises forever. (“Private” because sovereign debt is another matter, and another sort of crisis.) Bernanke, Diamond, and Dybvig’s work paved the way for this current insight. We can appreciate their analysis without setting in stone the solutions that they analyzed, which were largely just the ones that had already been settled on by previous political decisions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/8531596865528800695/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/nobels-and-financial-crises.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8531596865528800695'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/8531596865528800695'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/nobels-and-financial-crises.html' title='Nobels and financial crises'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8404314609469545059.post-3062255073219709874</id><published>2022-10-10T07:18:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2022-12-31T01:45:09.570-08:00</updated><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Commentary"/><category scheme="http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#" term="Politics and economics"/><title type='text'>Mind the store</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;On the same page in today&#39;s WSJ:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;One third of DC bus riders &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-d-c-bus-fare-is-a-polite-suggestion-evasion-budget-shortfall-enforcement-action-virginia-maryland-11665341012?mod=opinion_lead_pos4&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;don&#39;t bother to pay the fare&lt;/a&gt;. Also in &lt;a href=&quot;https://nypost.com/2022/05/22/mta-losing-119m-and-counting-to-fare-evasion-officials-say/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;New York&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The State Department is so dysfunctional that &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-immigration-crisis-endless-visa-waits-delays-embassies-consulates-processing-reform-canada-businesses-talent-11665338857?mod=opinion_lead_pos9&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;processing visa requests takes years&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In New Delhi, an appointment for a nonimmigrant visitor visa takes more than 800 calendar days, or nearly three years; for a student visa, nearly 450 days. The Cato Institute found that more than half of U.S. embassies and consulates world-wide have a waiting time greater than six months for a visitor or business visa appointment, compared with 1% before the pandemic. More than 1 in 4 have a waiting time of a year or more.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In March Congress enacted the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 to streamline the immigrant-visa process for foreign investors who commit significant capital to the U.S. But that reform is swamped by slow administration. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services advises applicants that 80% of cases (excluding Chinese nationals, who take even longer to process) are resolved within 52 months, or nearly 4½ years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;A central part of the immigration problem is that asylum claims languish in courts for years. And regular criminal courts also take years. Either spend the money to administer the laws, or change the laws (immigration and visas in particular) to not require administration that we can&#39;t provide. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These are just two tips of the iceberg of general incompetence in many parts of our government. &amp;nbsp;Not all: I&#39;ve had some pleasant interactions with very well run low-level government offices lately. It can be done.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Wanted for the elections: politicians who will campaign simply to administer competently and remedy dysfunction. Efficient government offices, court systems, transit systems and so forth are also crucial infrastructure. Don&#39;t lead new grand causes, just mind the store.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/feeds/3062255073219709874/comments/default' title='Posting Komentar'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/mind-store.html#comment-form' title='0 Komentar'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3062255073219709874'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='https://www.blogger.com/feeds/8404314609469545059/posts/default/3062255073219709874'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='https://premiumfreeaccounttwo.blogspot.com/2022/10/mind-store.html' title='Mind the store'/><author><name>Dream For Money</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/13282641110510058911</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='https://img1.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry></feed>

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