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&#8220;Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is li ...
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Source: https://wealthtribune.com/feed/

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<title>Sterling shrugs off local election to focus on US payrolls data</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/sterling-shrugs-off-local-election-to-focus-on-us-payrolls-data/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 20:01:43 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Sterling shrugs off local election to focus on US payrolls data By Joice Alves LONDON (Reuters) – Sterling rose on Friday against…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Sterling shrugs off local election to focus on US payrolls data</h1>
By Joice Alves
LONDON (Reuters) – Sterling rose on Friday against a weakening dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data due later in the day, while local elections in Britain have left the currency undisturbed.
Markets are focusing on U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due at 1230 GMT for clues on when the Federal Reserve might cut rates after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters this week that interest rates might have to remain elevated for longer but shot down talk of raising them again.
In Britain, the opposition Labour Party won a parliamentary seat in Blackpool South and control of several councils, inflicting heavy losses on the governing Conservatives.
The thumping victory, which set the tone for two days of local results before a national election this year, left sterling undisturbed.
“There hasn’t been much of a reaction in the pound to the results of yesterday’s elections in England and Wales,” said Jane Foley, head of forex strategy at Rabobank.
“The ruling Tory party has not fared well, but this has not come as a surprise. While cable is pushing higher today, this is the result of a broadbased fall in the U.S. dollar.”
The pound was last 0.15% higher against the dollar at $1.2555.
After payrolls data, markets will be looking to the Bank of England’s meeting next week for clues on when its policy easing could begin, Foley added.
The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday, but with inflation slipping back towards target, a rate cut at the following meeting might be put on the table.
Markets see now a 65% chance of a BoE cut in June, according to LSEG data.
In the meantime, British services companies reported the strongest upswing in activity in almost a year during April, despite a new surge in cost pressures, according to a survey that will be watched by BoE policymakers.
The S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose in April to 55.0, its highest level since May 2023 and up from a preliminary reading of 54.9. Readings above 50 represent expansion.
Against the euro, the pound was little changed at 85.60 pence.
 
(Reporting by Joice Alves; Editing by Ros Russell)
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<title>Global equity funds attract robust weekly inflows, led by Asia</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/global-equity-funds-attract-robust-weekly-inflows-led-by-asia/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 19:01:05 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Global equity funds attract robust weekly inflows, led by Asia (Reuters) – Global equity funds experienced renewed interest from investors in the…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Global equity funds attract robust weekly inflows, led by Asia</h1>
(Reuters) – Global equity funds experienced renewed interest from investors in the seven days through May 1, buoyed by a surge in inflows to Asia amid optimism about an economic recovery in the region, particularly in China.
Investors secured a net $4.86 billion worth of global equity funds during the week, marking their first weekly net buying since March 27, data from LSEG showed.
Regionally, Asian equity funds attracted a net $5.68 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since March 27. Meanwhile, investors put $4.46 billion into European funds and withdrew $5.48 billion from U.S. funds.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept rates steady on Wednesday, indicating future rate cuts may be delayed due to persistent inflation.
“The delay in Fed cuts is likely to postpone rate cuts in Asian markets, but that does not derail an ongoing Asian export, industrial, and real growth recovery, thanks to a supportive U.S. economy and improving Chinese growth,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS.
“We see several areas of dip-buying opportunities in the region that investors can consider despite a return in market volatility.”
Among sector funds, technology received $408 million, marking its first weekly inflow in four weeks. Conversely, the healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors each faced net outflows of nearly $800 million.
At the same time, bond funds attracted $6.69 billion worth of inflows, the largest amount in a week since April 10.
Government bond funds had $1.54 billion worth of net purchases in contrast to $773 million worth of net selling in the previous week.
Loan participation and dollar-denominated mortgage bond funds drew inflows of $1.58 billion and $1.34 billion, respectively. Additionally, inflation-linked bonds received $532 million, the largest inflow since July 2023.
Money market funds acquired about $8.14 billion in inflows, marking the first weekly net purchase in four weeks.
Among commodities, investors shed $401 million worth of precious metal funds, posting the third weekly outflow in four weeks. Energy funds saw a marginal $11 million worth of net buying.
Data covering 29,511 emerging market funds showed a net outflow of $769 billion from bond funds during the week, the third straight week of withdrawal. Equity funds, however, received about $74 million in net purchases.
 
(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; editing by Christina Fincher)
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<title>Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/dollar-drops-as-employers-add-fewer-jobs-than-expected-in-april/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 17:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April By Karen Brettell NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar fell to…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Dollar drops as employers add fewer jobs than expected in April</h1>
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar fell to a three-week low against the yen on Friday after data showed that U.S. jobs growth slowed more than expected in April and annual wage gains cooled, boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year.
Employers added 175,000 jobs last month, below economists’ expectations for a 243,000 increase. Wages increased 3.9% in the 12 months through April, below expectations for a 4.0% gain after rising 4.1% in March.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, still staying below 4% for the 27th straight month.
“The data’s soft across the board from the Fed’s perspective,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede in Philadelphia.
Fed funds futures traders raised bets that the Fed would cut rates twice this year, with 49 basis points of easing now priced in, up from 42 basis points before the data.
“The market at this point is so hoping that the Fed can cut rates this year and did not want one of the hot numbers coming in. Today’s report certainly offers them a cooler read of the labor landscape,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte.
Still, the report itself is unlikely to sway Fed policy unless the trend continues.
“An unemployment rate of 3.9% is not something disastrous. This indicates an economy that is not declining dramatically, but it definitely indicates a looser labor market,” said Pride. “It gives the Fed some hope, but it does not establish the trend for them.”
The Fed said at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday that sticky inflation meant that it would take longer to cut rates.
Other data on Friday showed that the U.S. services sector contracted in March, while a measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs jumped, a worrisome sign for the outlook on inflation.
The dollar index was last down 0.21% at 105.08 after earlier reaching 104.52, the lowest since April 10. The euro gained 0.31% to $1.0758.
The greenback weakened 0.51% to 152.84 Japanese yen and got as low as 151.86, the weakest since April 10.
The yen surged late on Wednesday and on Monday, both in light trading conditions, in moves that traders and analysts attributed to intervention by Japanese authorities.
Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that authorities may need to smooth any excessive yen moves that hurt households and companies.
The yen is on track for its best weekly percentage gain against the greenback since November 2022, after Japanese authorities also intervened in October 2022 to shore up the currency.
The Japanese currency reached a 34-year low of 160.245 on Monday as it suffers from a wide interest rate differential with the United States.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 4.71% to $61,481.66.
 
(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Ankika Biswas and Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Alex Richardson)
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<title>Stocks jump, yields fall on hopes U.S. labor tightness ebbing</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/stocks-jump-yields-fall-on-hopes-u-s-labor-tightness-ebbing/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2024 16:25:05 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Stocks jump, yields fall on hopes U.S. labor tightness ebbing By Alden Bentley and Huw Jones NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Wall Street followed…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Stocks jump, yields fall on hopes U.S. labor tightness ebbing</h1>
By Alden Bentley and Huw Jones
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Wall Street followed global shares higher on Friday after news that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew less than expected last month, easing investor anxiety that tight labor markets and stubborn inflation would not let the Federal Reserve cut rates soon.
Treasury yields fell, as did the dollar, after the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs in April, healthy but short of expectations for an increase of 243,000, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The unemployment rate stood at 3.9% compared with expectations that it would remain steady at 3.8%. Wage growth cooled too, in a sign that compensation demands could be a declining inflationary driver. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%, less than forecast and below March’s 0.3% growth.
“It’s probably the best news the Fed has gotten in a couple of weeks,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louiville, Kentucky. “It really is, on face, pretty much a Goldilocks report because you have payrolls growth softening, but not bad.”
Traders increased bets in U.S. interest rate futures that the Fed could pivot to an easier policy in September. They now are pricing in two cuts of 25 basis points apiece this year, with a 78% chance of the first coming at the Fed’s September meeting, compared with just one cut being forecast before the jobs numbers were released ahead of Wall Street’s opening bell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.18% in early trade at 38,676.78, the S&P 500 rose 1.05% to 5,117.28 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.77% to 16,120.76.
“Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is little doubt that markets will take this as good news. While we shouldnâ€<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/2122.png" alt="™" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" />t make too much of single data prints, this could be the start of a positive trend for the Fed,” said Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors.
U.S. stock futures had been in an bullish mood before the report, after late Thursday’s news that iPhone maker Apple would buy back a record $110 billion in shares.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6.7 basis points to 4.504%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 9.4 basis points to 4.7827%.
At the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed signalled that the next move in rates would be down. That has been well received by many investors who had started to believe the Fed might not ease at all and could even raise rates as its next move.
Its statement helped put a floor under markets that were also cheered by U.S. corporate earnings coming in above expectations, said Eren Osman, wealth management director at Arbuthnot Latham.
“There is an increasingly valid case to be put forward that you can see economic activity and earnings growth remaining resilient in a higher interest rate environment,” Osman said.
The MSCI All Country stock index extended gains to 1.133 after the U.S. data, though it was still down about 2% from its record high in March.
In Europe, the STOXX index of 600 companies rose 0.56%, while Europe’s broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.53%.
YEN GUESSING GAME
The yen recovering from 34-year lows was the focus in Asia, capping a tumultuous week that saw suspected intervention from Japanese authorities, leaving the dollar on the back foot. Asian shares surged to their highest in 15 months on Friday, led by tech and Hong Kong stocks.
Markets in Japan and mainland China were closed on Friday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan surged to 550.49, its highest since February 2023.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, on track for a ninth consecutive day of gains and on its longest winning streak since January 2018.
The dollar was trading at 152.37 yen on Friday, down 0.83%having started the week by touching a 34-year high of 160.245 on Monday before all the intervention talk. [FRX/]
Traders suspect the authorities stepped in on at least two days this week and data from the Bank of Japan suggests Japanese officials may have spent roughly $60 billion to defend the beleaguered yen, leaving trading desks across the globe on high alert for further moves by Tokyo.
A series of Japanese public holidays as well as Monday’s holiday in Britain – the world’s biggest FX trading centre – could present a possible window for further intervention by Tokyo. Japanese markets are also closed on Monday.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was last at 104.90, down 0.38% on the day, and facing its worst weekly performance since early March.
In commodities, U.S. crude lost 0.48% to $78.57 a barrel and Brent fell to $83.42 per barrel, down 0.3% on the day. [O/R]
Spot gold lost 0.4% to $2,293.55 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.68% to $2,283.50 an ounce.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 5.16% at $61,750.00.
(Reporting by Alden Bentley, Huw Jones and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Mark Potter and Gareth Jones)
]]></content:encoded>
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<title>Analysis-Traders prep for another round of yen whack-a-mole</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/analysis-traders-prep-for-another-round-of-yen-whack-a-mole/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 18:34:09 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
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<description><![CDATA[Analysis-Traders prep for another round of yen whack-a-mole By Amanda Cooper and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON (Reuters) – Japan’s attempts to shore up…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Analysis-Traders prep for another round of yen whack-a-mole</h1>
By Amanda Cooper and Dhara Ranasinghe
LONDON (Reuters) – Japan’s attempts to shore up its currency are putting trading desks across the globe on high alert and dealers are taking no chances ahead of a long weekend in London and Tokyo that might offer authorities another opportunity to bolster the frail yen.
The Japanese currency, which is around its weakest since 1990, has witnessed its biggest weekly price swing since 2022, when the Bank of Japan bought the yen for the first time since 1998.
Traders suspect the authorities stepped in on at least two days this week and data from the BOJ suggests Japanese officials may have spent almost $60 billion in doing so — roughly what they spent on three bouts of intervention over September and October 2022.
The blueprint for what they believe is intervention now includes operating in a near-vacuum of market liquidity, and a series of Japanese public holidays plus Monday’s holiday in the UK – the world’s biggest FX trading centre – could present a possible window.
Monday’s suspected intervention took place on a Japanese holiday and Wednesday’s was late in New York. Currency intervention during quieter periods, can potentially have more impact, giving the BOJ more bang for its buck.
Japanese authorities have repeatedly declined to comment.
“We’re (now) telling clients not to be surprised that these intervention efforts are coming at questionable times, this is multi-pronged and its meant to be opaque, as this is where they are going to have the biggest impact on overall market psychology,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, which advises companies and investors on currency management.
Reuters spoke to a number of large investment banks and asset managers in London on their staffing plans for Monday.
At least three said FX trading desks were staffed on public holidays to cover overseas markets but added it was usual to make adjustments if needed.
REASON FOR UNEASE
During Monday’s Japanese holiday, the dollar hit a new 34-year high of 160.245 yen, before getting swatted back to a low of 154.40 by the time Europe opened. Excluding previous rounds of intervention, the dollar has only fallen that sharply on a handful of occasions in recent years.
Late in the U.S. day on Wednesday, the dollar suddenly plunged 1% in five minutes, tumbling another 2% over another half an hour to the day’s low.
Spot yen trading volume on the EBS platform hit $77 billion on Monday, its highest since November 2016, CME Group data shows.
The data also showed volume hit $42 billion on Wednesday and 78% of that was in a one-hour window late in New York.
“The volatility has come in times of illiquidity, causing an increased sense of nervousness ahead of a few holidays between now and Monday,” said one London-based trader, declining to be named.
LOW RIDER
The yen has weakened for over a decade, largely due to how low Japanese interest rates are compared to other large economies including the United States.
In the last three years alone, the yen has lost around 35% of its value against the dollar, boosting Japanese exporters’ competitiveness, but adding a hefty premium to the import bill.
The yawning discount of Japanese rates versus U.S. ones encourages investors to stay positioned against the yen even with the risk of BOJ intervention.
“Because of the wide rate differentials, speculators will still be on the other side of this trade,” said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management.
In fact, in the week ended April 23, speculators held their biggest bearish bet on the yen in seven years in dollar terms, according to the U.S. markets regulator.
Volatility in the yen, as measured by overnight options pricing, has shifted up a gear since the BOJ intervened in September 2022.
Yen volatility has averaged around 9.4% since then, compared with an average of 7.8% over the last 13 years, according to LSEG data.
Central banks and companies dislike currency volatility, as it complicates their risk-management efforts, while traders love how it can juice up their profits.
But extreme volatility, such as that seen on Monday and Wednesday, has high stakes.
“These are moves that typically take weeks, if not months, to play out, compressed into periods of a few minutes,” said James Malcolm, head of FX strategy at UBS.
“People’s year, or careers, are made typically in the case of minutes and not days or months.”
 
(Reporting by Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson and Danilo Masoni; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
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<title>Oil edges back towards 7-week low after resilient US jobs data</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/oil-edges-back-towards-7-week-low-after-resilient-us-jobs-data/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 18:18:03 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Oil edges back towards 7-week low after resilient US jobs data By Robert Harvey and Deep Kaushik Vakil LONDON (Reuters) -Oil edged…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Oil edges back towards 7-week low after resilient US jobs data</h1>
By Robert Harvey and Deep Kaushik Vakil
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil edged back towards the previous day’s seven-week low on Thursday, paring earlier gains, after U.S. data pointed to persistent labour market strength and further dimmed prospects of an early decline in U.S. interest rates.
Brent crude futures for July were up 40 cents, or 0.5%, at $83.84 a barrel by 1332 GMT, heaving earlier touched a session peak of $84.44. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June was 27 cents, or 0.3%, firmer at $79.27, off a high for the day of $79.90.
Data showed U.S. jobless claims held steady at lower levels last week as the labour market remains fairly tight, ahead of April’s employment report due to be published on Friday.
On Wednesday, prices fell more than 3% to a seven-week low after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and warned of stubborn inflation, which could curtail economic growth this year and limit oil demand increases.
Crude was also pressured by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, which were at their highest since June. [EIA/S]
While OPEC and its allies have yet to begin formal talks on extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June, three sources from OPEC+ producers said such an extension could be agreed if demand fails to pick up.
Underpinning oil’s recovery was the potential for lower prices to spur the U.S. government to replenish strategic reserves.
“The oil market was supported by speculation that if WTI falls below $79, the U.S. will move to build up its strategic reserves,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading.
In the Middle East meanwhile, expectations grew that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight after a renewed push led by Egypt, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to proceed with a long-promised assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
“The geopolitical temperature might have dropped a notch or two, but the climate remains hot,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Deep Vakil in Bengaluru, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo; Editing by David Goodman and Jan Harvey)
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<title>Greek summer wildfire threat nears, outpacing plans to contain it</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/greek-summer-wildfire-threat-nears-outpacing-plans-to-contain-it/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 17:42:31 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
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<description><![CDATA[Greek summer wildfire threat nears, outpacing plans to contain it By Angeliki Koutantou ATHENS (Reuters) – When firefighters arrived at a blaze…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Greek summer wildfire threat nears, outpacing plans to contain it</h1>
By Angeliki Koutantou
ATHENS (Reuters) – When firefighters arrived at a blaze in a pine forest on the Greek island of Rhodes last July, flames were already leaping above the trees into the night sky. The volunteers needed to act fast, but dense vegetation on the forest floor blocked access.
With crews unable to get close, the fire spread and within days had engulfed the Mediterranean island, forcing 19,000 people to flee – one of the biggest disaster evacuations in Greece’s history.
“Have you ever tried walking through a forest that has not been cleared for more than 10 years? It’s so difficult,” said firefighter Nikos Karpathakis, who was at the scene.
As another summer approaches, and as climate change makes wildfires ever more deadly across southern Europe, Greece has developed a new doctrine to contain the damage, including deploying an extra fire truck to each new blaze, speeding up air support and clearing forests.
But five firefighters and three experts said the initiative doesn’t address shortfalls in planning and prevention and more devastation awaits.
“We are clinging to a doctrine which insists on fire suppression instead of adopting an integrated fire management strategy,” said Theodore Giannaros, a fire meteorologist at the National Observatory of Athens.
Heat waves triggered wildfires across swathes of Portugal, France, Spain and Italy last year and caused dozens of deaths.
The situation is especially dire in Greece, which has just recorded its warmest winter on record, creating ideal conditions for fires that threaten crops, homes and the booming tourism industry.
Last August, a fire in the northern Evros region destroyed an area larger than New York City and killed at least 20 people – the deadliest European blaze of 2023. Fires this year have begun earlier than expected, including one in March in a mountainous area normally blanketed by snow.
“It will be a very tough wildfire season. Climate change is here,” Vassilis Kikilias, Minister for Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, told Reuters.
MORE NEEDED
Greece has made strides to combat fires, including building firebreaks around power poles in forested areas and stepping up training.
Some 700 additional forest rangers were hired this year. Crews have cleared 12,000 hectares of forest since 2022 and another 7,000 hectares will be completed by the end of May, the environment ministry said.
“For the first time in 50 years, we’re stepping into forests and building firebreak zones,” Kikilias said. “Certainly it won’t be done at once throughout Greece but it’s a good start.”
Under a 2.1 billion euro ($2.25 billion) plan, Greece has concluded tenders for more than 1,000 fire engines and seven DHC-515 aircraft, and plans to install sensors to detect smoke.
Experts worry it won’t be enough.
The cleared forests make up only a tiny fraction of the nearly 7.5 million hectares of Greek woodland. Some of the tendered trucks and aircraft will not be delivered for years.
They said more money should be spent creating a corps of wildfire specialists who can draft risk maps and analyse how fires are likely to spread. They recommended embracing firefighting methods used in other parts of the world, such as “backfiring”, where firefighters light new fires in the path of existing ones to starve them of fuel.
Volunteer firefighter Karpathakis is haunted by last summer. He said crews laid down 2 km of hoses to get closer to the Rhodes fire. It was too late. Gale force winds blew the blaze beyond their reach.
“I worked non-stop for so many days but the situation didn’t get any better.”
 
(Reporting by Angeliki Koutantou; Editing by Edward McAllister and Nick Macfie)
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<title>Euro zone factory activity takes turn for the worse in April, PMI survey shows</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/euro-zone-factory-activity-takes-turn-for-the-worse-in-april-pmi-survey-shows/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 16:48:25 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Euro zone factory activity takes turn for the worse in April, PMI survey shows By Jonathan Cable LONDON (Reuters) -The downturn in…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Euro zone factory activity takes turn for the worse in April, PMI survey shows</h1>
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) -The downturn in manufacturing activity across the euro zone deepened in April due to crumbling demand despite factories cutting prices, pushing firms to reduce headcount again, a survey showed on Thursday.
But it was something of a patchwork decline in the region with the situation deteriorating in France and Italy while in Germany the sector moved closer to expanding. Spain was an outlier, activity there expanded at its fastest pace in almost two years thanks to an uplift in demand.
HCOB’s final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 45.7 in April from March’s 46.1, below the 50 mark denoting growth in activity for a 22nd month. However, it was just ahead of a 45.6 preliminary estimate.
An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Monday and is seen as a good gauge of economic health, nudged up from March’s 47.1 to 47.3, matching the flash estimate.
“The euro zone continues to post a mixed bag of economic indicators. Traditional manufacturing powerhouse Germany is continuing to see contraction,” said Boudewijn Driedonks, partner at consultancy McKinsey & Company.
“On the upside, Spain is emerging as a hub of manufacturing activity. Recent government investments…are helping Spain be seen as a destination for international investment in manufacturing and technology.”
Italian manufacturing activity returned to contraction last month amid renewed decline in output and new orders, while weaker production and demand meant the French headline PMI declined. Germany’s PMI nudged closer to break-even although a longstanding decline in purchases picked up pace.
Spain’s strong April survey came after the country’s statistics department said earlier this week the overall Spanish economy expanded a bigger-than-expected 0.7% last quarter.
Further afield, central Europe’s manufacturers suffered in April, with a decline in factory activity deepening in Poland and the Czech Republic and Hungary’s outlook softening.
WEAKER DEMAND
Suggesting no immediate turnaround for euro zone manufacturers the new orders index, below 50 since May 2022, fell to a four-month low of 44.1 from 46.0.
Factories depleted stockpiles of both purchased and final goods and reduced the size of their workforce for an eleventh month.
Last quarter, the euro zone economy recovered from a mild recession and expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, official data showed on Tuesday.
The manufacturing malaise continued despite manufacturers reducing prices charged again, adding to evidence the European Central Bank will reduce borrowing costs in June in a widely expected move as inflation broadly eases.
Euro zone inflation held steady at 2.4% as predicted in April but a crucial indicator on underlying price pressures slowed, data showed on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled it was still leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs but put a red flag on recent disappointing inflation readings that could make those rate cuts a while in coming.
(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Toby Chopra and Ros Russell)
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<title>Sterling gives back some Fed-inspired gains, eyes on local elections</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/sterling-gives-back-some-fed-inspired-gains-eyes-on-local-elections/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 16:39:39 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wealthtribune.com/?p=20240</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Sterling gives back some Fed-inspired gains, eyes on local elections By Samuel Indyk LONDON (Reuters) – The British pound slipped against the…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Sterling gives back some Fed-inspired gains, eyes on local elections</h1>
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON (Reuters) – The British pound slipped against the dollar, having risen the day before after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, while investors were playing down the impact UK local elections on Thursday might have on the currency.
The pound was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2509, having risen 0.3% the day before after Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruled out hiking interest rates, which weighed on the U.S. dollar.
“The Fed will be data dependent and if data were to show another boost to inflation then you can’t completely rule out another rate hike,” said Jane Foley, head of forex strategy at Rabobank.
“But it does seem the Fed believes the possibility of that is very small right now.”
While the Fed signalled that U.S. interest rates would be held at higher levels for longer, investors are looking to the Bank of England’s meeting next week for clues on when its policy easing could begin.
The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it announces policy on Thursday, but with inflation slipping back towards target, a rate cut at the following meeting might be put on the table.
“We expect the May MPC meeting to set the stage for a June rate cut,” Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja said in a note.
Elsewhere, analysts were watching the results of local elections taking place in the UK on Thursday, but were not expecting financial markets to take much notice of the results, even with a general election likely before the end of the year.
“Politics is not really a factor for sterling at the moment,” said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.
“It’s going to take quite a lot to convince investors that Labour are not going to win the election, so I don’t think this will have an impact on financial markets at all.”
Labour holds a lead over the ruling Conservative Party of around 20 points in most recent opinion polls, putting the opposition party on track to gain a majority in the House of Commons for the first time since 2005.
The pound was little changed at 85.53 pence per euro.
 
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk; editing by Christina Fincher)
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<title>UK set for weak growth and highest inflation in G7, OECD says</title>
<link>https://wealthtribune.com/uk-set-for-weak-growth-and-highest-inflation-in-g7-oecd-says/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Staff GBAF Publications Ltd]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2024 16:29:16 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wealthtribune.com/?p=20235</guid>
<description><![CDATA[UK set for weak growth and highest inflation in G7, OECD says By Andy Bruce LONDON (Reuters) -Britain will suffer some of…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>UK set for weak growth and highest inflation in G7, OECD says</h1>
By Andy Bruce
LONDON (Reuters) -Britain will suffer some of the lowest rates of economic growth and highest inflation among Group of Seven countries this year and next, forecasts from the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development suggested on Thursday.
The OECD cut this year’s growth forecast for the British economy to 0.4% from the 0.7% it predicted in February. Only Germany is expected to perform worse among G7 advanced economies, which also include Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the United States.
UK growth in 2025 is expected to recover to just 1.0%, compared with the OECD’s previous forecast of 1.2%, putting Britain at the bottom of the G7.
The OECD forecasts showed Britain’s annual rate of consumer price growth was likely to be the highest among G7 countries, both this year and next.
The forecasts are awkward for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose Conservative Party is lagging behind the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls ahead of a national election likely later this year.
Sunak has told voters it would be unwise to ditch his party just as his economic plan is starting to work.
“This forecast is not particularly surprising given our priority for the last year has been to tackle inflation with higher interest rates,” finance minister Jeremy Hunt said in response to the OECD forecast. He pointed to more optimistic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.
In April, the IMF similarly predicted Britain would generate the second-slowest growth among G7 countries in 2024, but it forecast faster growth in 2025 than for France, Germany, Italy and Japan.
“Robust real wage growth will support activity in the first half of 2024,” the OECD’s report for Britain said.
“However, sticky services price inflation and fiscal drag will continue to weigh on consumers’ purchasing power, soft external demand will constrain trade growth, and policy uncertainty will impede business investment.”
The opposition Labour Party said the OECD’s downgrade reflected 14 years of failure under the Conservatives.
The OECD said it should be a priority for Britain’s government to rebuild its fiscal buffers, adding this necessitated “credible” budget plans.
Economists have warned that the public spending assumptions underpinning the government’s budget published in March are unrealistic.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce, Editing by Paul Sandle, Tomasz Janowski and Christina Fincher)
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