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<li>the bullpen also could not handle the Rays offense tonight: Alcala gave  ...

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<title type="text">Viva El Birdos</title>
<subtitle type="text">Your best source for quality St. Louis Cardinals news, rumors, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.</subtitle>
<updated>2025-08-23T04:04:57+00:00</updated>
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<entry>
<author>
<name>George Bowles</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Cardinals at Rays in Tampa Bay 8.22.25]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/historical-analysis-amp-recaps/64133/cardinals-at-rays-in-tampa-bay-8-22-25" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=64133</id>
<updated>2025-08-23T00:04:57-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-22T23:33:24-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Historical Analysis & Recaps" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Latest News" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals News" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Ah, how about this, for a nice cold frosty one of a recap, baseball fans? Pull up a chair and listen in! Top of the 1st Well now, it’s 7:36 PM, down there at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Lars Nootbaar, he just takes one deep, but it’s caught out in left field by Chandler Simpson. […]]]></summary>
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<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/imagn-26906054.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
Ah, how about this, for a nice cold frosty one of a recap, baseball fans? Pull up a chair and listen in!
Top of the 1st
Well now, it’s 7:36 PM, down there at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Lars Nootbaar, he just takes one deep, but it’s caught out in left field by Chandler Simpson. One down, folks. Then Iván Herrera hits a grounder to second, and Tristan Gray, what a play he makes, throws it to first baseman Bob Seymour, and that’s two outs. Good gravy! And then Willson Contreras hits one to Carson Williams, the shortstop, who throws it to Bob Seymour at first. That’s three outs, just like that. <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2MMp36IDIM">As Mike Shannon would say</a>.
Bottom of the 1st
Chandler Simpson starts things off with a little ground ball single to second baseman Thomas Saggese. Then Junior Caminero, he grounds out softly to Miles Mikolas, the pitcher, who throws it to Willson Contreras at first. Simpson moves over to second. One out here, and <a href="https://www.stlmag.com/news/sports/deciphering-shannon/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the worm has turned</a>. Oh, and what do you know? Chandler Simpson, he’s caught stealing third base! Yohel Pozo to Nolan Gorman, and he’s out. That’s two gone, folks. And then, Brandon Lowe, he’s got a long one out to right-center field! Oh, yeah, a solo home run! Rays take the lead, 1-0. Brandon Lowe’s got his 25th dinger of the season. Josh Lowe follows up with a ground ball single to second, deflected by Miles Mikolas. Then Jake Mangum, he hits a ground-rule double to right-center field, and Josh Lowe moves to third. Hunter Feduccia grounds out to shortstop Masyn Winn, over to Willson Contreras at first. Three outs, and the score is 1-0 Tampa Bay.
Top of the 2nd
Nolan Gorman, he draws a walk to start things off. Then Masyn Winn hits into a force out, shortstop Carson Williams to second baseman Tristan Gray. Gorman’s out at second, Winn’s safe at first. One out. Thomas Saggese hits a grounder to shortstop Carson Williams, over to first baseman Bob Seymour. Winn moves to second. Two outs. And then Yohel Pozo, he singles to right field, right past Josh Lowe. Masyn Winn scores, folks! We’re all tied up, 1-1! Pozo’s got himself an RBI single. Jordan Walker takes one to right fielder Josh Lowe in foul territory, and that’s three outs.
Bottom of the 2nd
Oh, mercy! Carson Williams reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Nolan Gorman. You just hate to see that, folks. Bob Seymour lines out sharply to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. One out. And then Tristan Gray, he gets a hold of one! A two-run homer to right field! Carson Williams scores. Rays take a 3-1 lead. Gray with his first dinger of the year. Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Junior Caminero grounds out to second baseman Thomas Saggese, over to Willson Contreras at first. Simpson moves to second. Two outs. Brandon Lowe strikes out on a foul tip. Three outs.
Top of the 3rd
Nathan Church lines out to second baseman Tristan Gray. One out. Lars Nootbaar grounds out to first baseman Bob Seymour. Two outs. Iván Herrera, he’s called out on strikes. Three outs.
Bottom of the 3rd
Josh Lowe starts things off with a soft ground ball single to third baseman Nolan Gorman. Then Jake Mangum singles to left field. Lowe moves to second. Hunter Feduccia lines out to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. One out. Josh Lowe steals third base, and Jake Mangum steals second. They’re just running wild out there, folks! Carson Williams singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Josh Lowe scores! Mangum moves to third. Rays take a 4-1 lead! That’s Carson Williams’ first big league hit and RBI. And then, well now, with Bob Seymour batting, Carson Williams is picked off and caught stealing second base, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman. Two outs. And then Bob Seymour singles to right field, past Jordan Walker! Jake Mangum scores! The Rays are up 5-1! Bob Seymour with an RBI single. Tristan Gray walks, and Bob Seymour moves to second. Well, it’s a pitching change, folks. Anthony Veneziano replaces Miles Mikolas. Chandler Simpson grounds into a force out, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman Thomas Saggese. Gray is out at second. Three outs, and the Rays are up 5-1.
Top of the 4th
Willson Contreras grounds out to third baseman Junior Caminero, over to first baseman Bob Seymour. One out. Nolan Gorman, he walks. Masyn Winn strikes out swinging. Two outs. Thomas Saggese singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Gorman moves to third. Yohel Pozo grounds out to shortstop Carson Williams, over to first baseman Bob Seymour. Three outs.
Bottom of the 4th
Junior Caminero walks to start the inning. Brandon Lowe grounds into a force out, second baseman Thomas Saggese to shortstop Masyn Winn. Caminero’s out at second. Lowe’s safe at first. One out. Josh Lowe is hit by a pitch, and Brandon Lowe moves to second. And then Jake Mangum, he hits a sharp line drive for a double to left field! Brandon Lowe scores! Josh Lowe scores! What a hit, folks! Rays are up 7-1! That’s a two-run double for Jake Mangum. Hunter Feduccia lines out to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Two outs. Carson Williams is called out on strikes. Three outs.
Top of the 5th
Jordan Walker lines out sharply to center fielder Jake Mangum. One out. Nathan Church singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson! That’s Nathan Church’s first MLB hit! Lars Nootbaar takes one to left fielder Chandler Simpson, and that’s two outs. Iván Herrera hits into a force out, shortstop Carson Williams to second baseman Tristan Gray. Church is out at second. Three outs.
Bottom of the 5th
Bob Seymour strikes out swinging. One out. Tristan Gray singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Chandler Simpson grounds into a force out, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman Thomas Saggese. Gray’s out at second. Simpson’s safe at first. Two outs. Chandler Simpson steals second base. Junior Caminero strikes out swinging. Three outs.
Top of the 6th
Willson Contreras hits a ground-rule double to left field. Nolan Gorman takes one to center fielder Jake Mangum. Willson Contreras moves to third. One out. Masyn Winn is hit by a pitch. Thomas Saggese hits into a force out, shortstop Carson Williams to second baseman Tristan Gray. Willson Contreras scores! Winn’s out at second. Saggese is safe at first. Two outs. Cardinals get a run back, now down 7-2. Thomas Saggese with an RBI groundout. Yohel Pozo pops out to second baseman Tristan Gray. Three outs.
Bottom of the 6th
Brandon Lowe strikes out swinging. One out. Josh Lowe grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Two outs. It’s another pitching change, folks. Ryan Fernandez replaces Anthony Veneziano. Jake Mangum grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras, over to pitcher Ryan Fernandez. Three outs.
Top of the 7th
Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. And then Nathan Church, he hits a long one to center field! Get up baby, get up, get up! It’s a home run! Jordan Walker scores! Cardinals are creeping back, now down 7-4! That’s Nathan Church’s first big league homer! Lars Nootbaar grounds out to first baseman Bob Seymour, over to pitcher Adrian Houser. One out. It’s a pitching change, folks. Griffin Jax replaces Adrian Houser. Iván Herrera singles on a line drive to left field, deflected by shortstop Carson Williams. And then Willson Contreras, he hits a long one out to right-center field! Get up baby, get up, get up! A two-run shot! Iván Herrera scores! Cardinals are right back in this baby, now down by one run, 7-6! Contreras with his 19th dinger of the year. Nolan Gorman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Masyn Winn pops out to shortstop Carson Williams. Two outs. Thomas Saggese strikes out swinging. Three outs.
Bottom of the 7th
Hunter Feduccia draws a walk. Now it’s a pinch-runner, folks. Everson Pereira replaces Hunter Feduccia. And then Carson Williams, he hits a long one out to center field! Oh, yeah! Everson Pereira scores! The Rays extend their lead to 9-6. That’s Carson Williams’ first Major League homer! Bob Seymour strikes out swinging. One out. Tristan Gray takes one deep, but it’s caught sharply by center fielder Nathan Church. Two outs. Chandler Simpson grounds out to shortstop Masyn Winn, over to first baseman Willson Contreras. Three outs.
Top of the 8th
Well, a defensive change, folks. Nick Fortes replaces left fielder Chandler Simpson, and he’s now catching. Jake Mangum moves from center field to left field. Everson Pereira stays in the game in center field. Another pitching change, Bryan Baker replaces Griffin Jax. Yohel Pozo grounds out to pitcher Bryan Baker, over to first baseman Bob Seymour. One out. Jordan Walker strikes out swinging. Two outs. Nathan Church grounds out to shortstop Carson Williams, over to first… and that’s three outs!
Top of the 9th
Not much to say here but the Cardinals go out quietly into the night with their two best hitters, Herrera and Willson Contreras, striking out! Well go get ‘em again tomorrow, boys!
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nathan Church got both his first big league hit and his first big league home run tonight!</li>
<li>Miles Mikolas treated us again to Home Run Derby, folks! 2 dingers let loose, that’s 23 Mikolas endorsed home run balls in 2025.</li>
<li>Lars Nootbaar 0-5</li>
<li>Willson Contreras hit his 19th home run of the season…</li>
<li>Saggese and Pozo each had a hit and an RBI</li>
<li>Nathan Church and Contreras had similar nights with 2 RBI and 2 hits and a home run each</li>
<li>Mikolas was absolutely swarmed giving up 10 hits in 2 2/3 IP + 4 Earned Runs</li>
<li>the bullpen also could not handle the Rays offense tonight: Alcala gave up 3 hits in 1 inning; I didn’t know we had an <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-veneziano/27453/stats?position=P" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-veneziano/27453/stats?position=P">Anthony Veneziano</a> who struck out 4 batters in 3 IP while giving up 2 hits and 2 runs walking only 1 batter; Fernandez allowed a home run and a walk in 1 1/3 IP (Alcala also gave up a home run)</li>
<li>It was not a boring game: 16 runs scored, 6 home runs, 8 different pitchers (each team threw 4) with Rays starter Houser giving up 4 runs and 6 hits</li>
<li>Mikolas had the most effect on this game by a single player with a -.351 WPA! The Rays fringiest players Chandler Simpson and Tristan Gray had the most positive effect on the game with a .168 and .187 Win Probability Added while notching 5 total RBI between the two of them (Chandler Simpson with 3 RBI!)</li>
</ul>
An odd Saturday off because of some conflict with the NFL, booooooo. Return to Cardinals baseball Sunday, August 24th at 11:10 AM (strange weekend!). It will probably be Matthew Liberatore vs Ryan Pepiot who is a 4.56 FIP pitcher with an ERA just under 4.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays – A game thread for August 22, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/64144/st-louis-cardinals-at-tampa-bay-rays-a-game-thread-for-august-22-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64144/st-louis-cardinals-at-tampa-bay-rays-a-game-thread-for-august-21-2025</id>
<updated>2025-08-22T14:26:16-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-22T18:35:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Tampa Bay Rays this evening at 6:35 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> take on the Tampa Bay Rays this evening at 6:35 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Curt Bishop</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Thoughts on the Sonny Gray trade rumors]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-analysis-sabermetrics/64125/thoughts-on-the-sonny-gray-trade-rumors" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=64125</id>
<updated>2025-08-21T16:49:11-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-22T09:27:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Cardinals Analysis" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Cardinals Rumors" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[On Wednesday, some interesting news came out, or rather, speculation. It came from Ken Rosenthal, so we know to at least take it at face value, and we certainly know that if he’s hearing something, it’s probably legit. But in a recent piece in The Athletic, Sonny Gray’s name came up. Gray’s name wasn’t just […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/gettyimages-2229762604.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
On Wednesday, some interesting news came out, or rather, speculation. It came from Ken Rosenthal, so we know to at least take it at face value, and we certainly know that if he’s hearing something, it’s probably legit. But in a recent piece in The Athletic, Sonny Gray’s name came up.
Gray’s name wasn’t just mentioned for the sake of being in the story. In fact, Rosenthal had a very interesting report. The veteran right-hander, who came into last night’s start 11-6 with a 4.30 ERA, has a no-trade clause in his three-year, $75 million contract. He has twice used that no-trade clause to remain in St. Louis despite the Cardinals making clear that they are going in a different direction. He did it in the offseason when the “reset” was announced, and he did it again at the trade deadline.
Now, it’s clear that the Cardinals are rebuilding, and that’s why Gray’s name came up. Rosenthal mentioned that with the rebuild inevitable and likely to happen under Chaim Bloom, Gray could be open to waiving his no-trade clause.
When he chose to remain in St. Louis, he cited a desire to stay close to his Nashville home. The closest spots to there that aren’t St. Louis are Cincinnati and Atlanta, and Rosenthal even mentioned the Braves as a good fit, as they are closer to Nashville than even the Cardinals are.
Now, the Braves are also out of contention, but have a better chance of bouncing back in 2026 than the Cardinals do, so that makes sense.
So, what do I think about this? Well, I think it’s becoming more likely that Gray will be traded in the offseason. You do have to keep in mind though that the Cardinals would have to eat some money to get anything valuable in return. It’s similar to Nolan Arenado, and Gray hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his Cardinals tenure.
But I am starting to think that not only will Gray be traded, but that he’s also open to other teams beyond the Braves and Reds. He was brought in to be the Cardinals’ ace, but even though he’s had some good moments in a Cardinals uniform, he hasn’t exactly been the ace he was brought in to be. He’s not really the innings-eating type and isn’t quite the horse that a guy like Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter was.
This isn’t to say he’s not a great pitcher. He is quite good when he’s right, but he was also brought here with the understanding that the Cardinals expected to be a contender. They have not been a contender since 2022.
Gray was even on the record saying he likes those high-pressure moments. In all likelihood, there won’t be many of those moments for the Cardinals in 2026, as Rosenthal notes, so it makes sense that Gray would be open to not only being traded, but to teams he may not have been open to in the past.
Even if the Cardinals have to eat a good deal of money, they can at least get some salary relief by trading Gray this offseason. I would think he has a little more value than Nolan Arenado because of his ability to get swings and misses and strike hitters out.
It’s important to remember he’s 35 years old and will be turning 36 next year, so that could hurt his value a little. But with starting pitching in high demand in free agency, it would make sense that teams would show interest in Gray if they decided to pivot to acquiring their pitching via trade.
We don’t know for sure if Gray will want to be traded. He does still have his no-trade clause, but you can’t blame him for wanting to go somewhere else and win if that is the case. He’s not going to get that chance in St. Louis, and is it really worth keeping him for the final year of his contract if the Cardinals aren’t going to contend?
I’m not so sure it is, so while it sucks to have to watch the Cardinals rebuild, I would not be surprised to see Gray traded this winter. This isn’t a contender, and it won’t be for several years.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays – A game thread for August 21, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/64130/st-louis-cardinals-at-tampa-bay-rays-a-game-thread-for-august-21-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64130/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-a-game-thread-for-august-20-2025</id>
<updated>2025-08-21T18:18:09-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-21T18:35:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Tampa Bay Rays this evening at 6:35 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> take on the Tampa Bay Rays this evening at 6:35 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>ORSTLcardsfan</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Series Preview – St. Louis Cardinals visit the Tampa Bay Rays – August 21 – 24]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-previews/64095/series-preview-st-louis-cardinals-visit-the-tampa-bay-rays-august-21-24" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64095/series-preview-new-york-yankees-visit-st-louis-cardinals-august-15-17</id>
<updated>2025-08-21T10:46:55-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-21T12:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Previews" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Intro The now 63-65 Cardinals are mired in the muck. Essentially playing out the string, while hanging on to the hope a miracle occurs. It has happened before. Except they actually have to assemble some wins in a row for such miracles to appear. The 61-66 Rays are also mired in mediocrity. At five under […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="test" data-caption="Old friend Paul Goldschmidt returns in a new uniform | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images" data-portal-copyright="Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/gettyimages-2231038398.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
Old friend Paul Goldschmidt returns in a new uniform | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images </figcaption>
</figure>
Intro
The now 63-65 Cardinals are mired in the muck. Essentially playing out the string, while hanging on to the hope a miracle occurs. It has happened before. Except they actually have to assemble some wins in a row for such miracles to appear. 
The 61-66 Rays are also mired in mediocrity. At five under .500 and five teams to catch, there is no hopeful talk of still being on the edge of the Wild Card race. 
The Pitching Matchups (projected) 
Thursday – Gray vs Joe Boyle @ 6:35 (all times Central)
Friday – Mikolas vs Adrian Houser @ 6:35p 
Saturday – Off Day, All Day
Sunday – Liberatore vs Ryan Pepiot @ 11:10a
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
On Thursday, we should see 25-year-old right Joe Boyle. This will be his 4th start. He is a high K, high BB style pitcher. Where have you heard that before? If you consider 24.5% K rate high, anyway. 12.5% walk rate. With all of 32 IP under his belt this year take all of it with a grain of salt. 
On Friday, now 32-year-old right-hander Adrian Houser takes the mound. You may remember his Brewer days. He carries a 2.67 ERA and a 3.57 FIP. He is the kind of low-K, low-walk style pitcher that drives the Cardinals crazy. He also seems like a Cardinal prototype pitcher. Perhaps why he is in Tampa. 
On Sunday, we should see 28-year-old righty Ryan Pepiot. He carries a 3.95 ERA/4.56 FIP. He has a relatively decent 24.3% K rate coupled with an 8.3% walk rate, effectively maintaining a K-BB spread > 15%. 
The Rays and Cardinals bullpen look the same statistically. Both good, some mix of control guys and some high octane guys. 
If there is any daylight between these two teams, it is defense. Whereas the Cardinals rank at the top, as measured by OAA, the Rays are near the bottom (26th) in OAA. 
A peek at the offense
Their offense is slightly better than the Cardinals. Jonathen Arando (143 wRC+) and Junior Caminero (121 wRC+) lead them. I bet the Guardians regret trading Caminero. 121 wRC+ at the ripe age of 21. Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are the same 121 wRC+. Then everyone else is below average. 
Overall
The baseball park is a factor, but hard to quantize. Steinbrenner Field is excluded from Statcast Park Factors. I suspect it gooses offense a bit, but Tampa’s hitting and batting stats follow normal home-away declines, so nothing outrageous at just a brief glance. 
The only thing guaranteed in this series is the Cardinals will return either above or below .500. 
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals are coming off a series win at Miami as they try and claw back to (and over) .500. 
I read about an interview with Nolan Arenado today. He hopes to be light hitting soon. Full of optimism, at least in the words. It’s Aug 20. If he isn’t hitting, what are the real odds of him going through a progression (tee, soft-toss, BP, live BP) and then getting rehab games in after missing more than a month? To bring him back for maybe the last two weeks? Seems like this is a guy who is running out of runway. 
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Gabe Simonds</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[An early look at the pitching situation in 2027]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/64058/an-early-look-at-the-pitching-situation-in-2027" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=64058</id>
<updated>2025-08-20T17:17:03-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-21T08:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It’s Opening Day 2027. The date is who the hell knows. Hopefully that day happens and it happens in April. With the departure of Sonny Gray, whose $25 million mutual option was rejected by the Cardinals, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious ace anymore. On top of that, they entered camp without knowing which five […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/gettyimages-2230963606.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
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</figcaption>
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It’s Opening Day 2027. The date is who the hell knows. Hopefully that day happens and it happens in April. With the departure of Sonny Gray, whose $25 million mutual option was rejected by the Cardinals, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious ace anymore. On top of that, they entered camp without knowing which five starters would break camp in the rotation. But spring training answered at least who will be in the rotation if not necessarily the ace quite yet.
Now I ask you: who is in the rotation?
There is not one sure thing in the Cardinal organization who will be in the rotation in 2027. I know what you’re thinking: there are a couple guys pitching right now who will probably be in the rotation then. True. Probably. And no I’m not saying this because of injuries. I’m saying that they could lose their spot in the rotation. A lot can happen between now and then and the trio of current starters in the rotation still under team control then could be exposed by 2027.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/imagn-26815903.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Aug 9, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante (53) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images" data-portal-copyright="" />
I don’t think I need to make a sales pitch for why this might happen to Andre Pallante. I don’t think a single person will call me out saying I am a fool for thinking Pallante might not be in the 2027 rotation. The pitcher with spotty control who has a 5.04 ERA right now? Even Pallante defenders will agree with the thought that he might pitch his way out of the rotation by 2027. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore are harder sells though.
But it’s quite simple. Liberatore has faded hard down the stretch and I believe it’s fatigue and think he’ll be fine in the end but there’s also a world where he simply can’t sustain being a starting pitcher for a full season. Whatever he does the rest of this year won’t tell me much. He’s already done what he needs to do to be in the 2026 rotation. Next year will be key.
McGreevy is in a slightly different position. It’s not clear he’ll miss enough bats to stick as an MLB starter. Right now his numbers are okay, but I doubt his specific pitching profile is sustainable. He can’t strike out 14% of batters and last. At some point, he’ll have to strike out more hitters, even if it’s still below average. I believe he can do it, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he never can.
In essence, if you told me on an individual level if Matthew Liberatore or Michael McGreevy or Andre Pallante were not in the 2027 rotation because the 2026 season revealed they shouldn’t be MLB starters, I don’t think I would be surprised. All of them, sure. And again, I expect at least McGreevy and Liberatore to be there, but it’s not implausible to imagine them not quite cutting it either.
Why am I throwing cold water on these three? Well, it’s because of the 2027 pitching. You see an unfortunate consequence to the major pitching prospects getting Tommy John this year is that it completely decimated the 2026 pitching depth. Just about everyone who got hurt was supposed to be depth in 2026 if not a part of the plan. Pallante, McGreevy, and Liberatore are huge beneficiaries of this because they will be given every opportunity to prove they belong.
And then everyone gets healthy in 2027.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/gettyimages-2218206411.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0.0066312997347495,0,99.986737400531,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="NORTH LITTLE ROCK, AR - MAY 10: Tekoah Roby #48 of the Springfield Cardinals pitches during the game between the Springfield Cardinals and the Arkansas Travelers at Dickey-Stephens Park on Saturday, May 10, 2025 in North Little Rock, Arkansas. (Photo by Braeden Botts/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)" data-portal-copyright="" />
The 2027 rotation is too far in the future to play these games, but if you look at the current shape of the team, I see one spot to fill unless things go wrong. Pallante, McGreevy, Liberatore, Quinn Mathews, and Max Rajcic should provide three and I would hope they make an outside acquisition by that point for spot #4. Mathews and Rajcic are most primed to make an impression in 2026 among the minor league pitchers, but they are closer to the group I will highlight today than they are to being a McGreevy or Liberatore. Well Rajcic is definitely, Mathews hopefully looks like a rotation staple in 2027. I point this out though because I think, with Mathews and Rajcic included, there are probably at most two MLB rotation spots open to all the names I will end up listing in this post. Keep that in mind.
A weird consequence of Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Sem Robberse all missing next year to Tommy John surgery is that the 2026 pitching depth is decimated, but also they will be here in 2027 and all will need to be in AAA most likely. This is a weird consequence because they stand still, but the rest of the pitching prospects catch up to them. Not necessarily in prospect status, but in terms of needing to pitch in AAA. Which could lead to a very crowded pitching staff.
I’m not even going to count Tink Hence. Hence seems destined to spend 2027 in the bullpen, not even because I don’t think there’s any chance he can start, but because there is no way he catches up to his innings problem by then. He’s not even close to being able to pitch a full regular season in the big leagues and he’s burning his second of three options next year. At best, I think he’ll go on the Wainwright track or maybe the Liberatore track or even the Pallante track. So we’re at five names already and I’m not including Tink Hence among this group.
Springfield hosts quite a few legitimate pitching prospects who will spend nearly all of 2026 in AAA: Pete Hansen, Brycen Mautz, Ixan Henderson, and probably Hancel Rincon. (I am convinced he’s eligible for minor league free agency, not sure how that affects things). One or two them might even get some MLB time next year and look like real MLB rotation options entering 2027. We’re at nine pitchers who either need to make the MLB rotation out of spring or be in AAA (or be in the bullpen).. I’m not done.
The Cardinals have a few prospects in High A who, if they follow the typical get promoted one level at a time every year, would enter 2027 with AAA being on their timeline. That applies to recent trading deadline acquisitions Frank Ellisalt, Nate Dohm, and Mason Molina. Okay fine they all sort of have reliever profiles so it’s unlikely all of them are still rotation options then. But you still have Chen Wei-Lin, who is not young either. And you have Braden Davis who is striking out 34% of hitters as a starter in High A. The first nine names are a pretty safe group to be in AAA or above AAA. This group less so. But let’s be conservative and say just one of the deadline guys sticks in the rotation and one of Lin and Davis. We’re at 11 guys who need to be in AAA and above.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/26059801/usa_today_26358982.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,3.1186868686869,100,93.762626262626" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
I have intentionally left him for last, but yeah there’s also Liam Doyle. People think he might pitch in the majors next year, so it’s not a huge leap to think he will be in AAA at the start of 2027. Or the majors. I find this all fascinating. At no point am I even being particularly aggressive with promotions to assume this. We’re looking at something like 12 candidates for two rotation spots and five AAA rotations spots. That leaves a nice cushion of five injuries. Which is probably about right.
So the Cardinals find themselves in the very, very strange position of having just about zero depth for about the first half of the 2026 rotation – I don’t think it’s reasonable to think anyone currently in AA will be ready out the gate, and I don’t think it’s reasonable to think Rajcic will either. But when the Cardinals enter spring training in 2027, their depth should look significantly better without adding a single player. Again, I really hope the season starts on time that year, because that should be a fun spring training.
I just wanted to point out what the last three years of pitching development, selling of assets, and draft picks has led to. And untimely injuries. And yes I know some of my names I have penciled in for AAA in 2027 will get injured in the meantime. The Cardinals have built themselves quite the cushion for it this time. And if the Cardinals manage to have better injury luck next year, it should be pretty fun to see who emerges. 
To finish off this post, let me present some goals for the 2026 pitching staff:
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Matthew Liberatore/Michael McGreevy/Andre Pallante re-affirm they belong in the rotation. Just need two of these guys really.</li>
<li>Quinn Mathews emerges as an effective option. Don’t need too high of a bar here. Just show you are one of the five best starter pitchers in the organization.</li>
<li>One of Henderson, Mautz, Hansen, and Rincon not only look like a strong option at the beginning of 2027, they hopefully have a handful of MLB starts that show that they can do it.</li>
<li>Liam Doyle comes as advertised. </li>
</ol>
If all these things happen, Roby, Hence, Hjerpe, and Robberse will not be relied upon to do anything at the MLB level. You can handle Hence’s innings and the other three’s rehabs however they need to be handled and they will get an opportunity when they’ve proven it. Or you’re allowed to ease them back by giving them an MLB bullpen role too. Point being you aren’t entering spring training and thinking “Gee I sure hope Roby gets back to where he left off.” You’ll think that anyway, but you won’t be reliant on it working out.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>ORSTLcardsfan</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins Recap – 8.20.25]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-scores-recaps/64090/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-recap-8-20-25" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64090/st-louis-cardinals-vs-los-angeles-dodgers-game-summary-8-6-25</id>
<updated>2025-08-20T21:56:35-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-20T21:56:35-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Scores & Standings" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Game Highlights Former Cardinal farmhand Sandy Alcantara overwhelmed the Cardinal hitters with his 100-mph fastball, while the Marlins BABIPed Andrea Pallante to death, aided by unhelpful walks. Marlins salvage the series finale 6-2. Line-up (and roster) machinations A getaway line-up if there ever was one. Only one player is stationed at a position that he […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/imagn-26778417.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Game Highlights</h2>
Former Cardinal farmhand Sandy Alcantara overwhelmed the Cardinal hitters with his 100-mph fastball, while the Marlins BABIPed Andrea Pallante to death, aided by unhelpful walks. Marlins salvage the series finale 6-2.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Line-up (and roster) machinations</h2>
A getaway line-up if there ever was one. Only one player is stationed at a position that he would be considered comfortable and experienced at (Pozo at Catcher). Contreras at first is the next most experienced. Interesting for a pitch-to-contact pitcher, on an artificial surface, no less. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Pallante takes the mound for the Cardinals. Alcantara takes it for the Marlins. </li>
<li>Fermin at 2b, getting a rare start.</li>
<li>Saggese at SS, giving Winn a rare day off.</li>
<li>Gorman back at third.</li>
<li>Burleson in left, Noot in center, Walker in right. </li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Game Details</h2>
Andrea Pallante allowed lots of traffic in his outing, allowing 8 hits to go along with 3 walks and an HBP in his 5.1 IP. A solo HR was mixed in to continue his vexing FB/HR ratio issues, but other than that, it was well placed grounders and unhelpful walks and the HBP. 
Alcantara was close to dominating again, churning out FB close to 100 mph, good for 20 swings-and-miss, double the output of the Cardinals’ pitchers taken together. He struck out nine Cardinals and allowed but one walk. A Lars Nootbaar RBI double in the fifth and Contreras solo HR in the sixth was the only damage he allowed over 7 strong innings. 
Each time the Cardinals scored, the Marlins countered in the bottom of same inning. Granillo added a run with three walks of his own. Veneziano made an uneventful one inning Cardinal debut. 
Final score 6-2 Marlins. Cardinals still take the series. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Post-Game Notes</h2>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Off to Tampa for a series at Steinbrenner Field. </li>
<li>This will be an unusual schedule – Thursday, Friday, Sunday. There is a Saturday day off to accommodate an NFL game in the area.</li>
</ul>
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins – A game thread for August 20, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/64086/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-a-game-thread-for-august-20-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64086/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-a-game-thread-for-august-19-2025</id>
<updated>2025-08-20T17:07:34-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-20T17:40:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Miami Marlins this evening at 5:40 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> take on the Miami Marlins this evening at 5:40 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>George Bowles</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[What to do with what is left]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/64062/what-to-do-with-what-is-left" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=64062</id>
<updated>2025-08-20T02:12:44-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-20T03:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="General" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="MLB News" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Viva El Birdos Community" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[There are 35 games remaining in the season. Many storylines and endpoints have been realized, come and gone with the rigors of baseball. The Brewers have won just under 80 games now, and we are really so many games out of first place, under .500 by a game. Outside of a collapse from another Wild […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/08/imagn-26876156.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
There are 35 games remaining in the season. Many storylines and endpoints have been realized, come and gone with the rigors of baseball. The Brewers have won just under 80 games now, and we are really so many games out of first place, under .500 by a game. Outside of a collapse from another Wild Card contender, the Cardinals are done for the year. Gone is their really good bullpen. 
Actually it has been about the same in August but with an uptick in ERA. The FIP is only a little worse post-trade deadline. Maton and Helsley have been doing worse away from St Louis, but mostly Helsley: hitters are hitting over .900 OPS in August vs our former closer. Maton has actually been pretty good for the Rangers, but he hasn’t been elite like he was as a Cardinal.
Steven Matz, on the other hand, has been superb. Of the three, Matz could be most valuable. I hope if he wants to be, he gets to be a part of someone’s starting rotation next year. He might be one to follow to see how they progress. Batters have collected only two hits and two walks from Matz in 6 1/3 IP. But we do not really need these bullpeners who were traded.
2025 Schedule <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/cardinals/schedule">https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/cardinals/schedule</a>
The link explains some upcoming win probabilities with pitching matchups. And the rest of the season’s schedule. As well as every game matchup so far! So it’s pretty cool to look at. 
After this series vs the Marlins (which we are supposed to lose based on pitching matchups but hey, we won game 1 &2!) and a possibly maybe tough series vs the Rays, we might be able to go on a nice little tear vs the Pirates and then face a Reds series that could go either way. It should be interesting.
Then, fangraphs win expectancy has us banking a good bunch of wins vs the Athletics and the Giants, perhaps. Might be fun to knock the Giants out of the wild card hunt. The next few weeks could be a much different look for the Cardinals, especially if they can get back above .500 and go on a roll. This is going to be a whole new team to watch. Before Seattle, I would expect at the least that the Cardinals will be a few games over in the wins column.
There is of course the narrative that we cannot beat bad teams, but the truth is our record is worse vs teams over .500 than it is against teams under. We are actually handling bad teams pretty well for a team in 4th place. 
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote>NL Wild Card Hunt<cite>2025</cite></blockquote></figure>
The Cardinals are one of the fringe wild card teams currently at 5 games out Monday night. They have the least odds at making the postseason in the NL Central, with the Reds more likely. The other fringe teams are from the NL West, the Diamondbacks and the Giants. The Cubs and the Padres are the two “elite” wild card teams because they are 2.5+ games ahead of the Mets. Even though the Mets were stumbling, they have been winning again and still appear to be a lock for the postseason.
It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to catch the Mets, but they might have a better chance than the Reds simply due to the tough strength of schedule. Unless the competition unlocks something in the 93 wRC+ offense of the Reds squad, if we are going to see an upset of the Mets we should aslo talk about the Cardinals who seem a little more able to make a little run at it if they get lucky. Or maybe I’m just dreaming.
Maybe the only reason I am even considering this is that over the last 10 games the Mets were 3-7 (on Monday). Part of me wants to see an all NL Central wild card year. Could the Padres and Mets both fall out of contention? Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals all making the postseason and maybe taking out one of the other two divisions would just be ridicuously improbable. The Mets might have series vs the Tigers, Phillies, and Reds coming up, but… they also are playing the Nationals, Braves, and Marlins in the coming weeks. That would mean only one team non NL Central during the divisional round. That would sure hurt the ratings though (haha).
When a team collapses, they usually do it to themselves. If the Mets cave in, the Reds or the Cardinals could make it. What if the Reds sweep the Mets? What if we sweep the Reds? What if the Reds and Mets lose a ton of games? The Cardinals might just have to do enough to squeak in. Maybe they will take care of the Cubs at the end of the season, and the Cubs will be the team to stumble out of it. Anything is possible still. This is the Cardinals final form for 2025. We just don’t quite know it yet.
As of Tuesday night August 20th, the Cardinals have a 3% chance of making the playoffs. Does that sound familiar? 5 games out of the wild card. The Reds are 7 games over .500. The Brewers beat the Cubs then the Cubs beat the Brewers. Things are not going to be easy. But what can we look out for during the remainder of the season?
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Can Masyn Winn surpass 4 fWAR? he is at 3.5 and under 100 wRC+ currently. </li>
<li>Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras… who is better? they’ve both lost playing time due to injury, but Donovan has lost more. Contreras is easily out-hitting Donovan, but Donovan has more defensive versatility. I think at the end of the season Contreras will attain the more fWAR but it’s something to watch as they are both very close in value and are second/third best position player on the team to Winn.</li>
<li>Can Ivan Herrera finish at 130 wRC+ or above? He’s close! at 129 currently.</li>
<li>Is Burleson really a 120 wRC+ hitter, or more? He needs to be around there considering his defensive limitations. Hopefully he can improve even more. Depending on roster construction, he seems to be a viable first baseman going forward.</li>
<li>Nolan Gorman’s wRC+ is 108 and Yohel Pozo’s is 102 in case anyone was wondering. Just wanted to throw that out there! I love both players.</li>
<li>The spotlight for now is on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, but that will soon change as their windows slowly close. Burleson has proven himself to be at least a fringe roster lock (bat off the bench & backup at the least). Winn is a lock at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Herrera is the best hitter of this next wave of players, also a lock somehow, some way. But Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman still remain a bit of an enigma.</li>
<li>How much will Nolan Arenado play after he returns? We honestly have no idea.</li>
<li>Is Lars Nootbaar a slightly above league average hitter? If so he maybe should be a 4th outfielder. I think he is probably somewhere in between though, and can warrant being a starter (for now).</li>
<li>How will Sonny Gray perform during his last games of the season? Will he tank and run out of gas? Will he shake his inconsistency and home run bug this season? Or will he remain an on again off again ace?</li>
<li>Will they limit innings on Liberatore and even Gray? Why not save an old man’s arm and protect an up and coming starting rotation stalwart. </li>
<li>How do the Cardinals get more out of their hitters? Or can they? Team 99 wRC+ offense that desperately needs more power.</li>
<li>Should Andre Pallante be a part of the starting rotation in 2026 with his 5+ ERA and 4.5+ FIP?</li>
<li>The Brewers and Cubs are stealing a ton of bases… Cardinals are not. The Reds are stealing more than us too!</li>
<li>Why are the Cardinals not striking out much but also not taking many walks, while not hitting for power?</li>
</ul>

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins – A game thread for August 19, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/64073/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-a-game-thread-for-august-19-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/64073/st-louis-cardinals-at-miami-marlins-a-game-thread-for-august-18-2025</id>
<updated>2025-08-19T16:23:52-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-08-19T17:40:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Miami Marlins this evening at 5:40 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> take on the Miami Marlins this evening at 5:40 pm CT. The game will be available on ESPN and on the radio on KMOX 1120 AM/104.1 FM.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
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